Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. February 13, 1976 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) February 13, 1976 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 appears to be growing at about a 4¼ per cent annual rate in the January-February period--slightly above the lower limit of the Committee's two-month range of tolerance--as the table shows. On the other hand, M2 is expanding at around a 12 per cent rate--somewhat above the upper limit of its range. The larger than expected increase in M2 mainly reflects the sizable expansion in savings deposits that has occurred since early January, when yields on some key short-term market securities dropped below the 5 per cent ceiling rate on such accounts. In January, M1 grew at only a 1.6 per cent annual rate, but the pace of expansion picked up during the early weeks of February. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over January-February Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR, in per cent) Ranges of Tolerance M1 4 to 9 M2 7 to ll½ RPD -7 to -2 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 4¼ to 5 Latest Estimates 4.3 12.1 -6.0 Avg. for statement week ending 4.81 Jan. 21 Feb. 28 4.60 4 11 4.82 4.73 (2) The adjusted bank credit proxy declined somewhat on balance in January and is projected to expand at no more than about a 2¼ per cent annual rate in February. Bank loans have increased only modestly since the beginning of the year, and banks have permitted CD's to run-off in large volume. While most major banks cut their prime lending rate to 6¾ per cent during the intermeeting period, the adjustment to earlier declines in market rates was only partial, so that spreads of the prime over commercial paper rates remained unusually wide. (3) With strength in M2 offsetting weakness in M1 , the Desk continued throughout the intermeeting period to aim at the 4¾ per cent Federal funds rate prevailing at the time of the last meeting. Other short-term market rates did drift down another 10-15 basis points in late January when market participants were still anticipating some further reduction in the funds rate, but these declines were reversed once it became clear that such a cut was unlikely. As a result, most market interest rates showed little net change over the intermeeting period. However, the strong performance of deposit flows at thrift institutions encouraged some additional decline in mortgage rates. (4) The announcement of terms on the Treasury's February refinancing--which involved a fixed price offering of a 7-year note and auctions of a 3-year note and a re-opened long bond--exerted less upward yield pressure on the market for outstanding issues than many had anticipated. As a result, the 8 per cent coupon on the offering of 7-year notes at par was particularly attractive. Tenders were huge, and the Treasury issued $6 billion of the note rather than the $3½ billion originally planned. This issue has moved to about a 1½ point premium. Meanwhile, the new 3-year note and the re-opened long bond have moved to small discounts relative to their auction averages. Dealers were awarded negligible amounts of the 8 per cent note and have acquired only modest amounts through the secondary market. bond were fairly large. Awards of the short note and the While reasonably good progress has been made in distributing the issues, dealers' over-all position in coupon issues is still sizable. Moreover, their holdings of Treasury bills are unusually large, reflecting the cumulative impact of large Treasury cash raising activities in that area. (5) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Six Months Jan. '76 over July '75 Past Three Months Jan.'76 over Oct.'75 Past Month Jan.'76 over Dec.'75 -.3 3.5 10.6 5.5 10.6 1.5 4.8 11.9 7.3 8.8 -.9 .2 2.2 -2.6 4.7 4.2 2.4 2.7 1.6 7.2 8.3 6.7 8.2 10.5 6.8 11.2 9.9 11.4 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 6.3 5.1 6.4 3.4 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.6 6.9 10.2 3.9 3.6 4.9 -0.5 9.2 4.3 3.9 2.8 5.3 2.2 -.6 -.5 -.6 -3.7 -.2 -.3 .1 .5 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Calendar Year Calendar Year 1974 1975 8.4 Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M2 (MH plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 12 plus deposits at thrift instituions) 9.6 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper .4 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative shorter-run operating ranges for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 5½ to 9½ 5 to 9 4½ to 8½ M2 10½ to 13½ 10 to 13 9½ to 12½ RPD -4 to 0 -4½ to -½ -5 to -1 Federal funds rate 3¾ to 4¾ 4¼ to 5¼ 4¾ to 5¾ Ranges of tolerance for February-March (intermeeting range) (7) Each of these short-run alternatives is consistent with a 6 per cent growth rate for M1 over the period from QIV '75 to QIV '76-the mid-point of the longer-run M1 growth range adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. Growth rates for M 2 and M3 over the longer-run for each of the alternatives are also around the middle of the 12-month ranges for these aggregates adopted at the last meeting. There are some minor differences in growth rates for the broader aggregates among the alternatives because of projected differences in interest rate patterns. Longer-run growth rates, as well as more detailed figures, are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. (8) Under alternative B, the Federal funds rate range is centered on the recently prevailing 4¾ per cent level. Given such a funds rate, M 1 growth over the February-March period is expected to be within a 5 to 9 per -5a- Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 January February March 295.4 297.2 299.1 295,4 297.1 298.9 295.4 297.0 298,7 669.1 677.0 682.7 669,1 676.7 682.0 669.1 676.5 681.3 1102.3 1115.7 1126.7 1102.3 1115.3 1125.5 1102.3 1105.0 1124.3 1975 QIV 294.7 294.7 294,7 660.2 660.2 660.2 1084.5 1084.5 1084.5 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 297.2 303.3 308.1 312.4 297.1 302.9 307.8 312,4 297.0 302.5 307.3 312.4 676.3 695.4 710.0 722.8 675.9 693.9 708.6 722.3 675.6 692.3 707.0 721.9 1114.9 1149.3 1176.0 1199.0 1114.4 1146.4 1172.9 1197.7 1113.9 1143.7 1170.1 1196.6 7.3 7.7 6.9 7.3 6.5 6.9 14.2 10.1 13.6 9.4 13.3 8.5 14.6 11.8 14.2 11.0 13.8 10.0 QI QII QIII QIV 3.4 8.2 6.3 5.6 3.3 7.8 6.5 6.0 3.1 7.4 6.3 6.6 9.8 11.3 8.4 7.2 9.5 10.7 8.5 7.7 9.3 9.9 8.5 8.5 11.2 12.3 9.3 7.8 11.0 11.5 9.2 8.5 10.8 10.7 9.2 9.2 QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76 6.8 6.0 5.6 6.3 5.3 6.5 10.7 7.9 10.2 8.2 9.7 8.6 12.0 8.7 11.4 8.9 10.9 9.3 QIV '75-QIV '76 6.0 6.0 6.0 9.5 9.4 9.3 10.6 10.4 10.3 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 February March Quarterly Average: 1976 Committee lpnger-run Growth Ranges QIV '75-QIV '76 4) to 74 7 1 to 10 L -9 to --- 12 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C January February March 748,3 748.3 1181.5 752.9 748.3 752.6 1191.6 757,5 1202.2 1181.5 1191.2 1200.9 1181.5 1190.9 1199.7 514.2 515.5 758.2 752.4 756.6 518.3 514.2 515.2 517.8 514.2 515.1 517.2 1975 QIV 742.1 742.1 742.1 1166.3 1166.3 1166.3 512.2 512.2 512.2 J976 QI QII QIII QIV 753.1 770.5 786.3 801.3 752.8 769.1 785.2 800.6 752.4 767.5 783.6 799.8 1191.8 1224.4 1252.2 1277.4 1191.2 1221.7 1249.5 1276.0 1190.7 1218.9 1246.7 1274.8 516.0 525.6 535.5 544.3 515.7 524.6 534.7 543.7 515.5 523.5 533.7 543.1 2.3 6.1 2.1 4.9 1976 Growth Rates Monthly: 7.4 8.4 6.9 7.8 6.6 6.7 10.3 10.7 9.9 9.8 9.5 8.9 QIII QIV 5.9 9.2 8.2 7.6 5.8 8.7 8.4 7.8 5.6 8.0 8.4 8.3 8.7 10.9 9.1 8.1 8.5 10.2 9.1 8.5 8.4 9.5 9.1 9.0 3.0 7.4 7.5 6.6 2.7 6.9 7.7 6,7 2.6 6.2 7.8 7.0 QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76 7.7 8.0 7.3 8.2 6.8 8.4 10.0 8.7 9.5 8.9 9.0 9.2 5.2 7.1 4.8 7.3 4.4 7.5 QIV '75-QIV '76 8.0 7.9 7.8 9.5 9.4 9.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 1976 February March Quarterly Averages: 1976 QI QII cent, annual rate, range. Tax refunds are projected to be very large beginning in the second half of February--even a little larger than a year ago, when refund payments in this period were unusually high. In addition, the projected strength in economic activity in the first quarter should involve rising transactions demands. (9) Even if M1 growth in February-March is as rapid as implied by the mid-point of the range stipulated for alternative B, M1 would expand at only about a 3¼ per cent annual rate from the fourth quarter of 1975 to the first quarter of this year. Thus, given projected GNP growth of about 12 per cent annual rate, another sizable rise in velocity appears in store--as would be consistent with a further downward shift in the demand for money. The staff is assuming only a small further downward shift after the first quarter, and as a result interest rates can be expected to begin rising in the spring if M1 growth is to be kept to around a 6 per cent rate over the year. The funds rate under alternative B is expected to reach an average level of around 6¾ per cent by the fourth quarter of this year. Rate pressures would, of course, be stronger if the demand for money began strengthening relative to GNP. Appendix Table IV shows Federal funds rates expected over the course of the year for each of the alternatives. (10) M2 growth in the February-March period under alternative B is likely to be in a 10 to 13 per cent annual rate range. The rate of growth in time and savings deposits (other than large CD's) may moderate over the next few weeks from its recent exeptionally rapid pace, partly in consequence of withdrawals in connection with payment for the new 8 per cent 7-year Treasury note. A further slowing in such deposit flows can be expected as the year progresses in view of the anticipated rise in short-term market interest rates. (11) Little further change in market interest rates would be expected between now and the mid-March Committee meeting under the specifications of alternative B. The 3-month bill rate could rise somewhat because a substantial part--perhaps half--of the Treasury's very heavy cash need of around $15 billion between now and mid-April may be raised in the bill area, where dealer bill positions are already large. Upward adjustment of interest rates in the 2 to 7 year maturity area may also develop, since the Treasury will be offering additional notes for cash in the forthcoming period; a $2 billion 21-month note to be auctioned next Friday was announced today. Yields in the corporate bond market are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, with little significant change anticipated over the next few weeks in the flow of new issues coming to market. The municipal market is still subject to substantial uncertainty because of persisting doubts as to how New York State and certain other borrowers will cover forthcoming financing needs. (12) Alternative A involves a decline in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 3¾ to 4¾ per cent range, and slightly higher growth rates for M1 and M2 over the near-term than under alternative B. Such a drop in the funds rate might be accompanied by only a modest decline in the 3-month Treasury bill rate, given the large Treasury cash needs noted earlier. Long-term market rates would probably decline only temporarily, if at all, in response to a drop in the funds rate, in view of the widespread market expectations of continuing economic recovery and the likelihood that borrowers would accelerate bond offerings should rates soften noticeably. (13) The staff would not expect a decline in the funds rate to be sustainable, given the FOMC's longer-run monetary growth ranges. If alternative A were adopted, the funds rate would probably have to start rising by early spring, and during the third and fourth quarters would reach levels somewhat above those resulting under alternative B. However, reflecting the initially somewhat more accommodative reserve policy under alternative A, growth in the aggregates would be a little stronger in the first half of 1976 than under alternative B. Monetary growth would, of course, be somewhat less rapid in the second half. (14) Alternative C involves a rise in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 4¾ to 5¾ per cent range over the next few weeks. This may engender increases of as much as 50 to 100 basis points in other short-term rates and in yields on Treasury notes, given current market expectations of near-term rate stability and the heavy prospective volume of Treasury financing. Rate increases on longer-term market securities would probably be less pronounced. The prospect for reduced flows to thrift institutions would forestall any further decline in mortgage rates and may set the stage for some back-up. (15) However, under this alternative, mortgage markets, and credit markets generally, may tighten less over the course of the year than under either alternatives A or B. Given response lags, an early tightening of the funds rate would mean that less pressure would have to be exerted on markets later in the year to constrain growth in money. The lower average level of market rates achieved under this alternative would thus tend to limit pressures on thrift institutions during the second half of the year compared with the other alternatives. Proposed directive (16) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary aggregates" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: maintain-prevailing] ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the , provided that monetary aggregates appear period [DEL: immediately]ahead [DEL: to be growing at about the rates currently expected.] (17) Should the Committee desire to continue placing main emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alternative "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "money market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks maintain prevailing] ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money to[DEL: -10market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to maintain prevailing bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing] ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 2/13/76 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 0 S 1974 D M J 1975 S D M 1976 N D J RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. J F CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 2/13/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 320 I I I I I I I I 680 660 640 620 600 1974 1975 1976 N D 1975 J F M 1976 CHART 3 2/13/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -- 1 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 - 37 - 35 - 33 NONBORROWED 31 1974 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to removediscontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratic CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT 7- INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT -I 10 INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT - 11 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE - 7 - 10 EURO-DOLLARS 3 MONTH 9 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER '4-6 MONTH L FUNDS RATE - _j 4 - 7 S6 1975 1976 1975 1976 1975 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES FEB. 13, 1976 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RESERVES AVAILABLE AGGREGATE RESERVES Period NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA S I NSA I REQUIRED RESERVES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FOR PRIVATE Period Total Reserves 1 Nonborrowed Reserves Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 3 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS ....................... 32,241 32,337 32.268 132,014) 1975--NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. 32,251 32,588 33,206 (31,933) 34.451 34,805 34.965 ( 4, 145 34,391 34,675 34,887 134,0911 34,168 34,539 34,721 (33,954) 19,803 19,802 19,821 119,851) 12,155 12,267 12,201 (11,973) 2,210 2,469 2,699 1 2,130) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. -0.7 -1.8 2.4 -1.3 -1.1 8.0 -2.7 -3.1 11.3 -1.3 -1.0 7.2 10.2 2.2 -1.7 -16.5 -8.0 6.7 -3.5 -1.2 0.7 -5.4 -1.0 3.2 -4.5 -3.0 5.3 -5.4 -1.3 2.5 6.6 5.3 -1.5 -17.4 -11.9 2.2 6.1 -0.1 1.2 1.B) I -2.4 11.1 -6.5 -22.4) I -14.4) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1975--NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. JAN.-FEB. 13.6 12.3 .. 5 -28.1) ( 5.5 3.6 -2.6 -9.4) I ( -6.0) ( -11.4) 11.0 13.0 6.3 ( -26.5) ( 1 -10.1) ( -10.2) 1 ( 18.2 9.9 7.3 -27.41 1.51 WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS NOTE: 1976--JAN. 7 14 21 28 32,187 32,370 32,441 32,061 32,869 33,479 33.707 32,938 34,809 35,057 35,387 34,641 34,738 35,013 35,235 34, 83 34,510 34,871 35,153 34,468 19,597 19,947 20,003 19,742 12,287 12,237 12,204 12,145 2,625 2,687 2,946 2,581 1976--FEB. 4 11 32,295 31.846 32,813 31,734 34,889 33,835 34,834 33,798 34,444 33,814 19,807 19,809 12,043 12,015 2,594 1,989 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF JAN. 20, RANGE OF -7.0 TO -2.0 PERCENT FOR THE JAN.-FEB. PERIOD. IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1976 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F R ) CLASS II FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES FEB. 13, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period MONTHLY US Govt TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other Nondeposit Sources of (Ml) (M2) Proxy Deposits Total Than CD's CD's Funds 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 LEVELS-$6LLIONS 1975--NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. PERCENT Adjusted Credit ANNUAL 295.7 295.0 295.4 (297.1) 661.6 663.3 669.1 (676.7) 514.1 514.4 514.2 (515.21 ( 3.9 3.0 2.6 2.S) 447.6 451.2 452.9 (455.5) 365.9 368.3 373.6 (379.6) ( 81.8 82.9 79.2 75.9) ( 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.7) GROWTH QUARTFRLY 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 9.7 3.6 1.9 12.5 6.5 6.4 5.3 -0.8 7.0 6.3 2.6 11.8 14.6 8.9 10.1 -25.4 -23.8 19.2 7.4 7.1 2.5 10.2 10.1 6.1 3.6 1.4 6.0 4.5 4.7 9.1 12.5 12.7 9.1 -24.5 -27.5 9.5 ( 11.9 9.7 4.5 6.9) 1 11.9 7.9 17.3 19.3) ( 13.4 16.1 -53.6 -50.0) ( 5.7) ( 18.4) ( -50.7) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1975--NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. JAN.-FFB. ( 9.4 -2.8 1.6 6.9) ( 4.3) ( 10.8 3.1 10.5 13.6) 1 14.4 0.7 -0.5 2.3) ( 12.1) 1 0.9) WEEKLY LEVELS-BILLIONS 1976--JAN. FEB. 7 14 21 28 4 P -I 296.0 295.0 295.3 294.5 666.2 668.0 669.3 670.7 515.4 514.1 515.4 513.8 2.2 3.4 3.3 2.3 452.2 452.8 ; 452.5 453.6 370.2 372.9 373.9 376.2 81.9 79.9 78.6 77.4 8.3 7.6 8.0 7.7 296.5 674.4 513.9 2.2 454.6 377.9 76.7 7.7 A NOTE: DATA SHOWN U_ U- IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. 4- - P 4 - PRELIMINARY 4-- 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 13, 1976 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Open Market Operations 1/ RP's Coupon Agency Issues Issues Net 3/ (4) (2) (3) _ Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Open Market a Member Other 4/ Operations Bank Borrowing Factors (8) (7) (6) Period Bills &Accept. (1) 1975--July Aug. Sept. -2,302 -371 1,932 -274 822 -2 313 393 -623 1,007 2,008 -2,926 1,222 5,155 -832 -1,332 2,458 Oct. Nov. Dec. 147 -608 1,799 -709 297 284 -1 -- 15 -2,637 1,219 445 -2,537 3,315 1,276 521 1,165 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. -1,590 321 240 3,597 2,567 942 -202 -204 613 1,195 193 ---297 -- -- -5,793 -1,482 515 3,328 -373 -5,994 -1,686 1,128 4,820 -179 -1,064 -2,536 1,050 3,643 454 7 14 21 28 -404 -1,386 1 192 --321 -- 240 -- -2,022 803 -6,504 -2,426 -583 561 6,696 -257 -3,515 773 2,551 Feb. 4 11 18 25 -190 336 189 -- -- -3534 -2,969 -3,536 -2,633 1,605 -4,051 1975--Dec. 3 10 17 24 31 1976--Jan. I/ / 3/ 4/ 5/ Total (5) -10 -50 186 553 1,210 -2,432 -205 -130 66p -1,150 -387 8 - 13p 48 - p -7 -37 15 174 34 -186 -22 108 -94 -3 n.a. 2 - 95p In Reserve Categories -A Target Req. res. against available res. 5/ available (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) reserves 5 U.S.G. and interb. (10) (11) (9) 167 -124 98 -456 -48 114 -325 -45 10 15 1 76 -94p 3 342p 265 280 355 129 470p 960 -1,110 1,204 2,186 -363 -4,123 287 -57 -64 116 -185 542 190 -323 586 -121 233 503 3,788 -490 -3,575p -18 -13 179 -378p 78 264 212 -740p -1,562p n.a. 155p -284p -115p n.a. Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for January and February reflects the target adopted at the January 20, 1976 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -- FOMC FEBRUARY 13, 1976 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Within 1-year 1 - 5 -490 7,232 1,280 -468 87 207 320 337 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 -43 102 215 -2,093 1,086 -757 1,294 33 218 13 74 -369 1,917 Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1974--Qtr. IV 1975--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. I II III IV 1975--Aug. Sept. Total Within 1-year 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 46 120 439 191 131 45 492 1,054 1,135 712 385 625 454 201 234 312 273 171 315 13 -- 150 562 64 137 97 -588 1,784 -43 31 267 118 -1,596 37 31 -- 1975--Dec. 3 10 17 24 31 -200 -200 612 1,175 197 1976--Jan. 7 14 -404 -1,380 Feb. Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ - 5 - 10 Over 10 Total 592 400 1,665 824 253 244 659 460 168 101 318 138 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 138 371 130 53 691 1,402 -238 2,024 2,079 1,096 1,006 69 -64 58 169 514 141 285 -2 106 71 61 -63 14 584 -2 747 284 508 3,076 1,060 2,626 53 230 2,392 -1,403 47 124 274 822 41 23 229 285 49 57 34 29 353 394 216 3,148 1,007 2,008 -156 78 244 71 -709 297 58 - 141 - 71 --- 14 --- 284 --- 430 99 2,096 15 -2,637 1,219 110 100 73 321 26 139 47 27 240 --118 - 78 -- --71 -- --297 - ----- -- --- ---- ----- - --- --- - -- --- - 5 - 10 - -- -- Over 10 Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ 1 - 5 -1,030 -202 -204 613 1,492 193 -404 -1,386 RP's Net 6/ 3,597 -5,793 -1,482 515 3,328 -373 -2,022 803 21 -- 37 110 100 73 321 47 27 240 560 28 188 - -- - -- - -- - -- -- - 192 6,504 4 11 -189 356 189 - - -- 189 - -- -- - - -- -1 336 -3,534 - 18 25 -- 26 139 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). -2,969 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 13, 1976 Table 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills Period (1) Coupon Issues (2) Dealer Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (4) (3) Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves (5) 577 Seasonal 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) 3,906 647 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 Total (b) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 253 0 384 27 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 464 0 389 48 864 -50 871 18 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 - 7,207 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 79 166 195 147 198 195 398 147 96 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 9,533 Apr. 1,617 1,752 1,351 35 91 89 115 170 118 143 155 201 110 66 227 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 June 2,737 4,744 5,201 - 9,567 9,344 July Aug. Sept. 4,231 4,020 5,008 1,246 1,204 588 60 44 31 135 181 122 188 195 191 259 211 397 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 9,966 Oct. 5,766 4,751 Dec. 4,822 1,480 2,073 1,075 14 156 95 123 173 103 161 251 289p 189 60 131p -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - Nov. -10,159 -10,418 *4,959 *1,220 -3,611p - 9,7 3 10 17 24 31 4,748 4,620 5,835 4,546 4,296 1,281 875 710 1,256 1,437 66 30 45 219 253 22 - 9,611 14 12 12 -3,409 -3,948 -3,179 -2,039 -2,034 7 14 21 28 4,607 6,173 *4,891 *4,294 1,144 1,208 *1,637 *1,005 67 45 153 58p 10 9 9 8 p -3,106 -5,523 -3,433 -2,625 4 11 18 25 *5,020 *4,936p * 828 *1,750p May 1976--Jan. 1975--Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. NOTE: S -168 79 55 p p n.a. - .i _______ 9 p 15 lip n.a. -2,481p 2 -5,9 0p - 6,046 -10,302 - 9,015 9,202 7 0p -11,600 -11,011 -10,179 - 9,020 - 8,478 -10,607 -10,712 - 9,413 9 ,011p 4 -11,13 p 1___________ Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 13, 1976 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Short-Term Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1) Period 90-Day (2) 1-year (3) _Long-Term 90-119 Day CD's New Issue-NYC Commercial Paper 60-89 Day 90-119 Day (4) (6) (5) Aaa Utility New Recently Issue Offered (7) (8) Municipal Bond Buyer FNMA S...Government Constant Auction Maturity) Yield (10) (11) (20-yr. GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 1974--High Low 13.55 8.45 9.63 6.53 9.54 6.39 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 8.68 7.40 10.59 8.43 9.98 7.79 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 6.27 5.56 5.70 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 9.38 7.88 7.71 7.99 9.25 8.93 8.82 8.48 8.03 8.09 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 5.55 5.61 5.23 5.34 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.70 5.67 5.85 5.44 5.34 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.25 9.66 9.65 9.33 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.06 9.27 9.09 8.48 8.51 8.34 July Aug. Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.41 9.46 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.82 5.22 5.20 5.96 5.48 5.44 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.23 8.35 8.28 8.23 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 1976--Jan. 4.87 4.87 5.44 5.15 4.91 5.03 8.70 8.79 8.01 9.10 8.37 9.32 8.57 8.61 8.63 8.59 8.40 1975--Dec. 3 10 17 24 31 6.24 6.44 6.30 6.02 5.76 5.75 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 9.46 9.37 9.24 9.34 9.25 9.19 9.13 9.10 7.31 7.34 7.30 7.30 7.29 1976--Jan. 7 14 21 28 5.69 5.42 5.41 5.35 5.13 4.88 4.88 4.75 8.88 8.64 8.62 8.66 8.94 8.68 8.69 8.68 7.13 7.09 7.01 6.85 8.45 8.34 8.38 8.31 5.36 5.48 4.75 4.88 8.68 8.62 8.70p 6.86 6.95 8.29 Feb. 4 ]L 18 25 Da ly--Feb. 5 11 N01TE: 4.77 4.75 9.31 8.38 5.52 5.46 Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate deli-very, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the prevailing ceiling rate. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A FEB. 13, 1976 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES r RESERVES Period Total ' Total 1 boNrowed borrowed boroe 2 , Available to Support pt. Deposits 'jpr 3 ANNUALLY; 1973 1974 1975 7.6 8.4 -0.3 7.0 10.6 1.5 BANK CREDIT MEASURES Total Adj. Loans Credit proxy and Invest- MONEY STOCK MEASURES M 1 M 2 ments 7 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) M 3 M4 M5 M 9 10 11 6 M7 edt"dM 9.0 8.8 -0.9 D.5 0.2 3.9 13.5 9.2 4.3 6.0 4.7 4.2 8 12 8, 7, 8, 10.6 9.0 9.6 11.1 9.1 9.1 11.8.9 8.6 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1974 6.1 5.3 6.1 3.1 6.1 7.4 7.5 7.0 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 -3.9 3.4 -1.0 4.0 -2.2 0.3 4.5 3.1 5.1 3.4 9.8 6.5 9.9 9.0 9.3 8.5 9.1 7.8 -6.5 -1.3 -1.1 0.7 -2.7 -3.1 11.3 -3.7 -0.7 -1.8 2.4 3.7 5.3 3.8 7.0 5.7 4.6 3.6 3.1 6.9 6.5 6.4 8.3 11.3 8.1 9.6 7.4 11.1 7.7 9.0 7.1 10.9 6.9 8.5 -1.0 3.2 14.0 -4.5 -3.0 5.3 -0.5 -3.5 -1.2 0.7 5.5 3.6 1.4 6.0 1.0 5.1 4.1 4.7 5.6 10.2 10.1 6.1 8.5 9.4 10.1 9.2 7.8 8.9 9.8 8.6 6.8 8.8 9.2 7.7 14.8 -26.8 -7.1 5.2 -14.1 26.7 -18.5 -5.7 5.1 -12.6 5.8 3 7 6.0 2.2 4.7 4.3 7.9 3.4 4.1 7.2 9.3 7.1 13.4 9.2 6.2 6.5 8.7 9.5 14.8 10.0 5.1 8.0 8.8 10.8 7.3 8.4 6.2 6.7 8.7 9.4 14.4 9.6 4.2 6.8 8.0 10.2 7.1 7.2 21.4 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH OTR. QTR. QTR. OTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 8.0 12.5 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH OTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 1.4 -5.4 MONTHLY2 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. NOTES! 1/ P - 5.3 -12.4 3.7 -1.9 13.6 12.3 2.8 -9.3 -2.8 5.4 18.2 9.9 3.4 -7.1 -7. 5 1.1 -9.0 5.9 -1.9 -4.5 1.1 -1.9 5.5 3.6 5.5 7.3 -2.6 5.1 P -0.6 1.0 5.1 2.7 3.3 4.3 5.2 5.9 16.5 3.7 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 -7.3 3.1 9.1 7.3 8.2 8.3 10.1 15.0 10.0 5.9 8.2 9.8 11.6 7.2 3.5 5.3 10.5 6.9 4.4 9.5 5.7 4.2 5.1 10.8 6.8 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6. RM7 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITU, M7,TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES FEB. 13, 1976 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVESi Period Total Non borrowed 1 2 Available to Support Pvt Deposits 3 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Adl Credit proxy Total Loans and Invest ments M1 M M3 M4 M5 M M7 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 32,177 34,894 34,805 30,879 34,167 34,675 30,000 32,646 32,337 449.4 495.3 514.4 634.6 691.9 721.6 270.5 283.1 295.0 571.4 612.4 663.3 919.5 981.6 1091.9 634.9 702.2 746.2 982.9 1071.4 1174.7 1094.9 1194.5 1303.2 1133.1 1234.2 1340.6 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 35,324 34,534 34,329 34,926 34,387 34,223 32,738 32,545 32,342 497.7 497.4 499.9 694.6 697.1 701.7 281.9 281.9 284.1 614.5 618.2 623.0 986.7 994.0 1003.7 707.3 710.2 712.8 1079.5 1086.1 1093.5 1203.7 1209.9 1216.5 1242.b 1249.2 1256.2 APR. MAY JUNE 34,478 34,074 34,218 34,368 34,008 33,991 32,371 32,128 32,285 500.8 501.2 506.5 703.7 706.7 709.7 284.9 287.6 291.0 626.7 633.7 642.4 1012.7 1025.3 1040.2 715.1 718.8 726.5 1101.1 1110.4 1124.3 1225.3 1235.0 1250.2 1265.3 1275.2 1290.5 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,370 34,016 34,120 34,069 33,804 33,724 32,235 32,113 32,143 505.1 503.3 505.5 710.9 714.9 716.1 291.9 293.2 293.6 647.5 650.6 652.9 1051.6 1060.6 1068.1 729.6 729.3 731.9 1133.7 1139.? 1147.1 1260.6 1266.0 1274.4 1300.8 1305.4 1312.8 OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,066 34,451 34,805 33,876 34,391 34.675 32,093 32,241 32,337 508.0 514.1 514.4 719.7 726.0 721.6 293.4 295.7 295.0 655.7 661.6 663.3 1075.6 1086.0 1091.9 736.6 743.4 746.2 1156.5 1167.7 1174.7 1283.7 1295.3 1303.2 1321.5 1332.7 1340.6 34,965 34,887 32,268 514.2 724.8 295.4 669.1 1102.3 748.3 1181.5 1311.0 1348.2 MONTHLY: 1976--JAN. P WEEKLY: 1975--DEC. 17 24 31 34,952 34,626 35,134 34,907 34,407 34,881 32,414 32,175 32,395 514.5 514.2 513.6 294.5 294.2 295.4 662.7 663.0 664.1 745.6 745.8 746.9 1976--JAN. 7 14P 21P 28P 34,809 35,057 35,387 34,641 34,738 35,013 35.235 34,583 32,187 32.370 32,441 32,061 515.4 514.1 515.4 513.8 296.0 295.0 295.3 294.5 666.2 668.0 669.3 670.7 748.2 747.8 747.9 748.1 FEB. 4P 34,889 34,834 32,295 513.9 296.5 674.4 751.1 NOTES: ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES PDemand Currency Depots Period 1 2 Toae osts Dep t 3 Time Mutual Other Than CD' ak and S & L and Shares FEB. 13, 1976 Short ion Shares Shares CD's Savings Bonds Term Commercial U.S. Gov't PaperI Securities 10 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual *ates of growth) 8 9 10 ANNUALLY: 7.7 8.5 5.6 15.8 13.8 12.1 20.2 45.6 41.4 -7.7 30.9 15.7 2.2 38.8 3.4 -5.8 2.1 10.6 6.1 11.5 20.9 11.2 -5.4 9.4 7.6 4.4 1.2 7.8 7.2 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 -12.7 -2.9 9.4 9.2 5.6 9.4 -1.1 9.9 2.9 -0.5 9.2 6.3 2.6 11.8 12.1 17.7 17.4 12.5 20.2 20.6 17.0 17.6 0.0 -25.4 -23.8 19.2 -7.3 13.5 1.3 1.3 -18.9 -11.5 8.9 8.1 8.5 8.4 -2.0 6.9 6.6 0.5 12.0 4.5 4.7 9.1 10.1 16.2 18.2 14.0 17.5 21.0 18.6 16.5 19.7 -24.5 -27.5 9.5 -3.3 2.0 6.6 -2.0 -20.2 8.1 -9.0 -18.3 7.1 8.8 12.2 1.7 12.1 13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9 -8.9 -2.8 8.4 3.9 11.1 14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 8.2 -5.4 18.0 8.2 1.1 3.9 3.1 12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.4 11.9 9.7 9.5 11.2 15.2 16.4 17.2 18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3 17.3 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3 38.8 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 3.9 -7.8 0.0 11.8 -15.2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 -3.0 -23.9 -30.5 -18.8 -12.7 -3.2 6.1 0.0 4.5 12.7 14.4 -53.6 11.7 -3.2 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.8 16.2 2ND HALF 1974 9.9 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 1973 1974 1975 15.0 SEMI-ANNUALLY 3.0 1.3 3.5 -14.9 QUARTERLY: IST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. OTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 1.0 6.O QUARTERLY-AV: IST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 MONTHLY: 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. P - NOTES: RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED CUMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. FEB. 13, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Mutual Time Credit Union Shares 1 2 3 4 Savings Bank and S & L Shares 5 61.5 67.8 73.7 209.0 215.3 221.3 364.4 419.1 451.2 300.9 329.3 368.3 323.5 341.6 395.5 24.7 27.7 33.3 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 68.2 68.7 69.4 213.7 213.2 214.7 425.4 428.3 428.7 332.6 336.2 339.0 344.3 347.5 351.9 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.2 71.0 215.4 217.4 220.0 430.1 431.2 435.5 341.8 346.1 351.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.3 71.9 72.0 220.6 221.3 221.6 437.6 436.2 438.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.3 221.3 74.2 Period Total Time Deposits Demand s Currency Other T CD's Short Commer Term U.S. Gov't PaCommercial Y Scuritie aper ings CD's B Seurities 6 7 8 9 10 63.5 89.8 82.9 59.9 62.8 66.9 52.1 60.3 61.6 38.3 39.6 37.3 28.1 s8.6 29.1 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39.7 356.7 361.8 367.5 29.6 30.1 30.6 88.4 85.1 84.1 64.1 64.4 64.7 60.2 60.2 61.2 40.0 40.2 40.3 355.5 357.4 359.2 373.3 378.8 383.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 82.1 78.8 79.1 65.1 65.4 65.8 61.8 61.2 61.4 40.2 39.4 38.4 443.2 447.6 451.2 362.3 365.9 368.3 387.8 391.8 395.5 32.4 32.8 33.3 80.9 81.8 82.9 66.2 66.5 66.9 61.0 61.0 61.6 37.8 37.4 37.3 221.3 452.9 373.6 399.7 33.7 79.2 67.2 62.2 37.2 73.8 73.8 73.7 220.7 220.4 221.8 451.1 451.6 451.5 368.2 368.7 368.7 82.9 82.9 82.8 73.7 74.1 74.2 74.5 222.2 220.9 221.2 220.1 452.2 452.8 452.5 453.6 370.k 372.9 373.9 37?.2 81.9 79.9 78.6 77.4 74.5 222.0 454.6 377.9 76.7 Non- U.S. deposit Gov't Funds Demand 11 12 ANNUALLYS 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLVt 1976--JAN. P WEEKLY: 1975--0DC. 17 24 31 7 14P ZIP zap B. 4P FEB. 4P 1976--JAN. INOTES: 1/ P - I- - I- I ~~ - - ~ ~ - I- J.- RESERVE REQUIREMENTS UN EURODOLLAR. BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON bANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INGLUOEO BEGGINNING OLTOBER 1, 1970. ETIIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF LURRcNT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. DATA. PRELIMINARY Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M1 M M3 M2 Q M Q M Q I 3.6 7.4 7.3 9.2 8.4 10.3 II 10.1 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 1974 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 IV 1.9 2.5 4.2 4.4 1973 II III IV QIV '74-QIV '75 10.2 14.5 12.6 10.1 10.7 13.3 6.4 6.1 8.9 8.3 8.2 11.2 9.2 11.1 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 4 5 Alt. B Alt. C 4 5 5 51 6k 6 6 7 61 6 

Federal Reserve (1976, February 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760218

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760218,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760218},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}