Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC January 16, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC January 16, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Both M1 and M 2 appear to be growing at rates below the low ends of the two-month ranges of tolerance adopted by the Committee at the last meeting. M1 contracted at about a 2¾ per cent annual rate in December, and data thus far available in early 1976 suggest that January will show little net change. After adjustment for the preliminary new seasonal factors presented at the time of the last meeting, M1 appears likely to expand at less than a one per cent annual rate over the two-month period. Expansion in time deposits other than money market CD's has, on balance, also been somewhat slower than anticipated, and M2 is now projected to grow at about a 6 per cent annual rate during the December-January period. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over December-January Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Ranges of Tolerance 1/ Latest Estimates - with Old Preliminary New Seasonals Seasonals 1/ M1 4 to 7 0.7 -1.6 M2 7 to 10 5.9 4.9 RPD 4 to 7 n.a. 0.2 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 2/ 4½ to 5½ Avg. for statement week ending Dec. 24 31 5.12 7 4.76 14 seasonal new the of estimates Seasonal adjustments based on the preliminary meeting. last the of factors that were available at the time On January 12 a majority of the Committee concurred in the Chairman's recommendation to instruct the Account Manager to hold the weekly average Federal funds rate at approximately 4¾ per cent until the next FOMC meeting. Jan. 1/ 2/ 5.18 5.18 -2(2) Recent growth rates for both M1 and M2 continue to be affected by increases in business savings accounts. Although expansion in these accounts at weekly reporting banks has slowed recently, shifts to such accounts may have reduced the annual rate of growth in M1 over the December-January period by about 2½ percentage points, or about 1-1½ percentage points more than assumed in the previous blue book. Thus part of the shortfall in M1 reflects greater-than-anticipated shifts out of demand deposits to savings accounts. (3) Data received a few days after the last FOMC meeting suggested that the monetary aggregates--particularly M1--were growing at a substantially slower pace than anticipated at the time of the meeting. However, since data on the aggregates are typically volatile around year-end and because the Committee had voted to give greater emphasis than usual to money market conditions, the Desk continued to seek reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate centering around 5¼ per cent. When subsequent data suggested further weakening in the aggregates, the Desk adopted a more accommodative reserve posture, and the funds rate 4¾ per cent. On January 12, moved down in stages to a majority of the Committee concurred in the Chairman's recommendation to instruct the Account Manager to hold the weekly average Federal funds rate at approximately this level until the January meeting. In the statement week just ended the funds rate averaged 4¾ per cent. (4) Inter-meeting changes in prices and yields in securities markets have been substantial. Interest rates on short-term market -3instruments have declined 60-100 basis points, with the 3-month bill trading most recently around 4.85 per cent. Yields on bonds declined 20-65 basis points, while stock prices--as measured by the comprehensive New York Stock Exchange index--have advanced 9¼ per cent. Short-term rates are currently at their lowest levels since mid-1972, and corporate bond yields have reached their lowest levels since the spring of 1974. The ceiling rate on FHA/VA single-family mortgages was also cut, from 9 to 8¾ per cent, on January 5, as yields on mortgages traded in the secondary market continued to decline. However, rates on primary mortgages have, as usual, lagged behind other long-term rates, dropping only about 5 basis points during the inter-meeting period. (5) The Board's December 24 action reducing reserve requirements on certain time deposits, and the subsequent decline in the funds rate, contributed importantly to the general decline of interest rates. At the same time, year-end private economic forecasts tended to crystalize market judgments on the longer-term economic outlook, encouraging the view that moderate future economic growth and further progress on inflation were likely to permit significant further reductions of the inflation premium in long-term rates. (6) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Calendar Calendar Year Year 1974 1975 Past Six Months Dec. '75 over June '75 Total reserves Past Three Past Months Month Dec. '75 Dec. '75 over over Sept.'75 Nov. '75 8.5 -.3 3.0 8.3 14.9 10.7 1.4 3.6 11.6 12.4 8.9 -.9 .3 3.2 6.4 4.8 4.2 2.3 2.3 -2.8 7.2 8.8 6.6 6.8 3.2 6.8 11.4 9.3 8.5 5.6 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 6.7 5.7 8.4 5.9 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.8 8.5 9.4 7.2 10.2 4.2 3.0 7.4 4.2 9.2 4.2 3.1 2.6 -8.8 2.2 -.6 -.1 1.4 Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits ) 1/ M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 M4 (M2plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's 1.9 -.5 -.5 -.3 .4 -.2 Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Shown below are alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary aggregates, together with the ranges adopted by the Committee in October. In keeping with past practice, the time period for the proposed ranges has been shifted forward by one quarter; the alternatives apply to the period from QIV 1975 to QIV 1976, whereas the current ranges relate to the QIII '75-QIII '76 period. 1 / Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Current M1 6-8½ 5-7½ 4-6½ 5-7½ M2 7½-10½ 6½-9½ 5-8 7½-10½ M3 8½-11½ 7½-10½ 6-9 9-12 3½-6½ 3-6 6-9 Credit proxy 4-7 (8) Of the three alternatives, B calls for retaining the current range for M, but reducing somewhat the growth ranges for the broader M's. This is because growth in time and savings deposits (other than large CD's) in the course of 1976 is likely to remain around the more moderate pace that developed in the second half of last year. The current longer-run ranges for M 2 and M 3 assume a more rapid pace. 1/ Figures for selected subperiods of the QIV '75-QIV '76 period are shown in the detailed tables on pages 5a and 5b . In addition, the table includes the one-year growth rates measured from both of the quarterly bases the Committee has employed in the past--i.e., the second and third quarters of 1975--for each of the aggregates under each of the alternatives. -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates I I I I I I Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 1976 December January February 296.4 296.4 298.8 296.4 296.3 298.5 296.4 296.2 298.2 667.5 671.1 676.9 667.5 671.1 676.4 667,5 670.9 675.4 1093.9 1101.3 1111.8 1093.9 1100.9 1110.3 1093.9 1100.4 1108.3 1975 QIV 295.9 295.9 295.9 663.9 663.9 663.9 1086.8 1086.8 1086.8 1976 QI 298.8 305.7 312,5 298.5 304.3 317.3 314.4 298.2 302.7 307.2 311.4 676.9 694.2 710.2 723.1 676.3 691.2 704.5 716.4 675.4 687.4 698.6 708.7 1111,8 1142.6 1171.0 1194.9 1110.2 1136.0 1159.3 1181.4 1108,2 1129.3 1149.2 1167.6 8.1 11.4 7.7 10.2 7.1 8.6 QII QIII QIV 309.8 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 January 1/ February I/ 0.0(6.3) 9.7(6.7) -0.4(5.9) -0.8(5.5) 6.5(9.7) 6.5(9.7) 6.1(9.3) 8.9(5.9) 8.1(5.1) 10.4(8.9) 9.5(8.0) 8.0(6,5) Quarterly Average: 3.9 9.2 8.9 6.1 3.5 7.8 7.2 5.9 3.1 6.0 5.9 5.5 7.8 10.2 9.2 7.3 7.5 8.8 7.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 6.5 5.8 9.2 11.1 9.9 8.2 8.6 9.3 8.2 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.0 6.4 QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76 6.6 7.6 5.7 6.6 4.6 5.7 9.1 8.3 8.2 7.3 7.1 6.2 10.3 9.2 9.1 8.0 7.8 6.8 QII '75-QII '76 QIII '75-QIII '76 QIV '75-QIV '76 5.7 6.3 7.2 5.3 5.3 6.3 4,7 4.5 5.2 9.0 8.7 8.9 8.5 7.8 7.9 7.9 6.9 6.7 11.0 10.1 9.9 10.3 9.0 8.7 9.7 8.0 7.4 -970. QI QII QIII QIV / Figures in parentheses represent rates of growth based on the new seasonal factors and are consistent with 2-month growth rates shown in summary table in paragraph (6). Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M4 M5 Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 1976 December January February 750.8 751.3 757.5 750.8 751.3 757.1 750.8 751.1 756.5 1177.2 1181.5 1192.3 1177.2 1181.1 1191.0 1177.2 1180.6 1189.3 515.1 513.8 515.7 515.1 513.7 515.4 515.1 513.6 515.2 1975 QIV 745.9 745.9 745.9 1168.8 1168,8 1168.8 512.1 512.1 512.1 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 757.5 775.9 793.0 807.3 757.1 773.8 788.9 802.6 756.5 771.4 785.1 797.9 1192.4 1224.3 1253.9 1279.1 1191.0 1218.6 1243.7 1267.6 1189.3 1213.3 1235.6 1256.7 516.2 526.0 534.6 540.7 515.9 524.8 532.2 538.2 515.7 523.6 530.3 536.0 0.8 9.9 0.8 9.3 0.5 8.6 4.4 11.0 4.0 10.1 3.5 8.8 -3.0 4.4 -3.3 4.0 -3.5 3.7 QI QII QIII QIV 6,2 9.7 8.8 7.2 6.0 8.8 7.8 6.9 5.7 7.9 7.1 6.5 8.1 10.7 9.7 8.0 7.6 9.3 8.2 7.7 7.0 8.1 7.4 6.8 3.2 7.6 6.5 4.6 3.0 6.9 5.6 4.5 2.8 6.1 5.1 4.3 QIV '75-QII '76 QII '76-QIV '76 8.0 8.1 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.9 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.6 7.2 5.4 5.6 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.7 QII '75-QII '76 QIII '75-QIII '76 QIV '75-QIV '76 7.3 8.2 8.2 7.0 7.6 7.6 6.7 7.1 7.0 9.7 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.7 8.1 7.5 4.6 5.9 5.6 4.3 5.4 5.1 4.1 5.1 4.7 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 January February Quarterly Averages: 1976 -6(9) Alternative A encompasses higher growth rates for the monetary aggregates over the next year than alternative B, while alternative C presents lower rates. The alternative A rates may be viewed as compensating, in an arithmetic sense, for the shortfall in M1 growth relative to expectations in the fourth quarter. That is to say, under alternative A the level of M1 in the third quarter 1976(using mid-points of the ranges) would be the same as that implied by a 6¼ per cent growth rate measured from the third quarter of 1975. To reach that level, M 1 would have to expand at almost a 7½ per cent annual rate over the first three quarters of 1976. (10) The M1 level for QIII '76 that is implied by the Committee's current longer-run growth range probably should be adjusted downward, however, on economic grounds to allow for recent shifts of business funds from demand deposits into savings accounts and for expected future growth of such accounts at the expense of demand deposits. The regulatory change permitting businesses to hold savings accounts up to $150,000 in size became effective in mid-November. By early January such accounts aggregated about $2 billion, of which the staff estimates that about $1½ billion would otherwise have gone into demand deposits. Growth in business savings accounts has been slowing in recent weeks, and the staff expects it to slow further as time goes on; by the third quarter of 1976, additional growth in such accounts substituting for demand deposits might total $1 billion. In sum then, a $2½ billion downward adjustment in the target level of M1 for the third quarter might be a reasonable allowance for corporate savings accounts. This would imply M1 growth over the next three quarters at close to a 6¼ per cent annual rate, which is approximately the growth rate for that period under alternative B. For the one year QIII '75-QIII '76 period, the path contained in alternative B involves M1 growth of 5.3 per cent. (11) Shorter-run alternative operating ranges corresponding generally to the longer-run alternatives are summarized below (with more detail presented in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges of tolerance for January-February M1 1/ 4½-8½ 4-8 3½-7½ M2 1/ 7½-11½ 7-11 6-10 RPD -2½ to -6½ to -7 -3½ to -7½ Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) 1/ 3½-4½ -3 4¼-5¼ 5-6 The growth rates for M1 and M2 are based on the new seasonal factors that will soon be published. These differ somewhat from the preliminary revised factors employed in the previous blue book. Appendix table V compares the new factors for M1 with the preliminary revised and old factors. The new factors raise the Jan.-Feb. annual growth rate for M 1 by about 1¾ percentage points relative to the old factors. Other elements of money supply revision, including benchmark and certain other adjustments, are not yet completed. The new series is expected to be published shortly after the Committee meeting. (12) Alternative A involves a decline in the Federal funds rate from the 4¾ per cent level recently prevailing to the mid-point of a 3½-4½ per cent range. Under such circumstances, M1 would be expected to expand in a 4½-8½ per cent annual rate range in the two-month Jan.-Feb. period, and M2 in a 7½-11½ per cent range. The pick-up in M1 growth relative to recent behavior reflects mainly staff expectations that the projected continuing rise in nominal GNP will be accompanied by resumed expansion in money demand--given the unusual, and probably unsustainable, rise in the velocity of money that has already occurred in the current cyclical expansion. -8(13) We would expect a further drop in the Federal funds rate of that magnitude to be accompanied by a decline in the 3-month Treasury bill rate to around the 4-4¼ per cent area. market Such an easing in the money would,of course, lead to additional downward adjustments in inter- mediate- and longer-term interest rates. These rate declines might be limited, however, to the extent that borrowers--particularly corporate borrowers--took advantage of the more favorable market atmosphere to accelerate security offerings. The Treasury will announce terms of its mid-February refunding on January 27. It will refund $4.3 billion of publicly-held maturing securities and will probably also raise $1-1½ billion of new cash, with the exact amount depending in part on the market environment. (14) The lower funds rate assumed under alternative A would be expected to persist until late spring or early summer. The funds rate would then be expected to begin rising, given continued expansion in GNP. The funds rate would be likely to be around 6 per cent by late 1976, assuming money growth over the year is held to around 7¼ per cent under this alternative. (15) A Federal funds rate centered around 4¾ per cent is con- templated under alternative B, with M1 growth in a rate range in the January-February period. 4-8 per cent annual Given such a funds rate, interest rates generally may show little net change over the next few weeks. If anything, short-term interest rates could drift up a little, as expectations by some market participants of a further decline in the funds rate, following the discount rate action announced today, are disappointed. -9Longer-term market interest rates may remain around the recent reduced levels, given the more moderate corporate bond calendar and the availability of sizable funds for investment in longer-term markets from insurance companies, savings banks, and pension funds. With business loan demand slack, banks may show increased interest in intermediate-term Treasury offerings to increase earnings, particularly in view of the steep slope of the yield curve. Mortgage rates can be expected to decline somewhat further since savings inflows to thrift institutions are expected to be well maintained and since a more favorable yield spread of primary mortgage rates over corporate bond rates has recently developed. (16) If the Committee seeks to attain a 6¼ per cent growth rate from QIV '75 to QIV '76 for M1, the staff would expect interest rates to begin rising by late winter. A more gradual rise is now anticipated than had been predicted earlier, with the funds rate reaching a level of around 6 per cent by summer. As a result, inflows of time and savings deposits (other than large CD's) are expected to slow as the year progresses, but not so much as to require an upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates. (17) Alternative C assumes that the Federal funds rate is adjusted upward over the next few weeks to the middle of a 5-6 per cent range. This approach is most consistent with a reduction in the longer-run growth ranges. If the FOMC were to seek one-year growth in the aggregates as indexed by M1 expansion of about 5¼ per cent from QIV '75 to QIV '76, the staff believes that the funds rate would have to rise further to around 7¼ per cent by summer. -10(18) Any significant near-term rise in the funds rate would certainly be unexpected by the market. Thus, a sharp upward re-adjustment of interest rates could be anticipated with the 3-month bill rate possibly rising as high as 6 per cent between now and the next meeting. This would again make thrift institutions uncertain about the strength of future savings flows and might, therefore, bring the recent decline in mortgage rates to a halt. In bond markets, yields would back up, and the rise might be especially large in the Treasury market in view of the size of dealer positions and the imminent refunding. -11Proposed directive (19) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first three are couched in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. The fourth alternative is proposed in the event that the Committee wishes to continue to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and wishes to maintain the conditions now prevailing. No special reference to the Treasury's quarterly financing to be announced on January 27 is proposed because Treasury financings have been, and for some time will continue to be, frequent. Alternative "Monetary Aggregate" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: maintain prevailing] ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES ahead, period immediately] MONTHS [DEL: over the [DEL: the aggregates-appear-to-be-growing-at-about provided that monetary currently-expected.] rates Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee maintain prevailing] ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market seeks to[DEL: conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES ahead, provided that monetary period immediately] MONTHS [DEL: over the [DEL: aggregates appear to be growing at about the rate currently expected.] -12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODEST GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the[DEL: period immediately]MONTHS [DEL: ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at aboutthe rates currently expected.] "Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to maintain prevailing bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 1/16/76 CHART 1 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 7% growth 35 33 4% growth S 31 S 1974 D M J 1975 S D M 1976 I 0 \ N 1975 I D J RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. I l F J 1976 CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 1/16/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 320 305 300 295 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 290 1974 1975 1976 0 N 1975 D F J 1976 1/16/76 CHART 3 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 540 - 520 - 500 - 480 I I I I I I I I RESERVES I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 - 37 - 35 TOTAL NONBORROWED 33 -v 31 I I 1974 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios CHART 4 1/16/76 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS WEEKLY AVERAGES FEDERAL FUNDS F.R. DISCOUNT RATE 1974 1975 1874 1875 1974 IS75 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES JAN. 16, 1976 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RSERVES AVAILABLE RSFOR PAVATE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS S S Period SA NSA 1 2 REQUIRED RESERVES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AGGREGATE RESERVES Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and interbank 3 4 5 6 7 8 MONTHLY LEVFLS-SMILLIONS 1975--OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. PERCENT ANNUAL 32,137 32,302 32,474 (32,315) 32,048 32,322 32,693 (33,277) 34.055 34,403 34,829 (35,069) 33,865 34,342 34,698 (35,0101 33,848 34,119 34,539 (34,851) 19,737 19,871 19,922 (19,702) GROWTH ------------- QUARTERLY 0.5 -2.6 3.2 1.2 -2.2 8.3 -0.2 -4.2 11.6 1.2 -2.1 7.2 11.7 1.4 -1.2 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 -3.7 -0.8 2.9 -2.8 -2.8 5.0 -3.7 -1.1 2.1 8.0 5.7 -2.1 ( -2.9 6.2 6.4 -5.9) ( -2.2 12.3 14.9 8.3) ( 5.1 16.9 12.4 10.8) ( -2.8 9.6 14.8 10.8) -14.7 8.1 3.1 ( -13.3) ( 0.2) ( 11.6) ( 11.7) ( 12.9) ( 1975--2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. N 0 T N 0 T A V A I L A B L E A V A I L A B L E QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1975--OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. DEC.-JAN. -5.1) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--DEC. 1976--JAN. NOTE: 3 10 17 24 31 32,470 32,359 7 14 32,339 32,530 32,590 32,225 32,819 32,612 33,162 34,718 34,423 35,001 34,678 35,260 34,651 34,393 34,956 34,458 35,003 34,389 34,257 34,754 34,418 34,790 19,972 19,976 20,179 19,758 19,755 32,122 32,573 32,838 33,624 34,833 35,117 34,762 35,074 34,534 34,936 29,535 19,798 32,671 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF DEC. 16, RANGE OF 4.0 TO 7.0 PERCENT FOR THE DEC.-JAN. PERIOD. IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F. MONETARY AGGREGATES CLASS FOMC II ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period MONTHLY U.S. Govt. TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other (M1) (M2) Proxy Deposits Total Than CD's CD's 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nondeposit Sources of Funds 8 LEVELS-$BILLIONS 197-OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. PERCENT Adjusted Credit 294.1 297.1 296.4 (296.3) 658.6 665.7 667.S (671.1) 507.9 513.3 515.1 (513.7) ( 2.9 3.6 3.1 2.5) 445.8 450.0 454.5 (454.9) 364.6 368.6 371.2 (374.8) ( 81.3 81.4 83.3 80.2) ( 7.9 8.2 8.4 7.9) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--2ND QTR. 3RO QTR. 4TH QTR. 11.2 2.3 2.3 13.4 6.3 6.8 7.5 -1.3 7.4 6.7 3.3 12.5 15.3 9.7 10.5 -25.4 -23.8 21.2 8.6 6.9 2.4 11.2 10.4 6.4 5.2 1.4 5.9 5.2 4.9 10.0 13.3 13.2 9.7 -24.0 -29.3 11.5 13.9 11.3 12.0 1.1y ( 9.6 13.2 8.5 11.63 ( 33.4 1.5 28.0 -44.7) 6.5) ( 10.1 ( -8.8) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1975--0CT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. OEC.-JAN. ( -2.4 12.2 -2.8 -0.4) ( -1.6) [ C 4.2 12.9 3.2 6.51 ( 5.0 12.8 4.2 -3.3) ( 4.9) ( 0.5) [ 5.9] 0.7] WEEKLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--NOV. 19 26 296.2 296.7 664.8 666.8 513.5 514.1 3.9 3.3 449.9 451.6 368.6 370.1 81.2 81.5 8.6 8.5 DEC. 3 10 17 24 31 299.0 296.4 295.3 295.1 297.3 669.1 667.6 666.2 666.4 668.9 516.1 514.9 515.7 514.4 514.5 3.4 3.2 4.7 2.9 2.0 452.5 454.4 454.2 454.8 455.1 370.1 371.2 370.9 371.3 371.6 82.4 83.2 83.3 83.4 83.5 8.0 7.8 8.0 9.2 8.5 296.1 669.3 515.4 2.3 455.4 373.2 82.2 8.3 1976--JAN. 7 P 1 . NOTE: DATA SHOWN I I d IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. S I P - PRELIMINARY I CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JANUARY 16, 1976 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept. Period (1) 1975--June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Open Market Operations 1/ Coupon Agency RP's Issues Issues Net 3/ (2) (3) Total (4) (5) Daily Average Reserve Effects / I A In Reserve Categories A Target Open Market A Member Other 4/ Req. res. against available res. 5, available Factors U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9 reserves 5/ Operations Bank Borrowing - (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) -413 958 -6 -1,855 -1,317 -3,165 211 3,438 -96 580 215 -2,302 -371 1,932 -274 822 -2 313 393 -623 1,007 2,008 -2,926 1,222 5,155 -832 -1,332 2,458 -10 -50 186 553 1,210 -2,432 167 -124 98 -456 -48 114 -325 -45 10 147 -608 1,799 -709 297 284 -1 -- 15 -2,637 1,219 445 -2,537 3,315 1,276 521 1,165 -205 -129 67p -1,150 -312 -777p 15 0 56p -94p 80 399p 265 280 355 960 Jan. Feb. 1975--Nov. 5 12 19 26 -85 -910 23 689 -355 354 -1 ---- -7,526 6,114 670 3,216 -7,612 5,204 1,048 4,259 407 -4,580 2,243 2,995 -28 -27 19 15 -208 3,475 -1,275 -3,067 Dec. 3 10 17 24 -202 -204 613 1,195 297 ----- -5,793 -1,482 515 3,328 -5,994 -1,686 1,128 4,820 -1,064 -2,536 1,050 3,643 -7 -37 15 175 1,204 2,186 -363 4 - ,103p 31 193 -- -- -373 -179 454 37 310p 7 14 -404 -1,386 --- -2,022 803 -2,426 -583 -257 -3,515 -186 -27 316p 3,819p 1976--Jan. (11) - -36 -999 766 -52 207 -133 221 -5 190 -323 586p 08 -2 p -57 -64 116 -77p 2 50p 551p 87p -194p -214p 471p uc A epresen s ac ge n ystem s port o o rom en -o -fer 0 Lo en -- perJo Represents change in daly average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for December and January reflects the target adopted at the December 16, 1975 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary, n cludes redempt . CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -- FOMC JANUARY 16, 1976 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Period Treasury Bills Within Net Change 2/ 1-year 1 - 5 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 5 - 10 Within 10 Total -1-year Net Change Outright Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 Holdings RP's 0 Total Total tal 5/ Net 6/ 1972 1973 1974 -490 7,232 1,280 87 207 320 789 579 797 539 500 434 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 168 101 318 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 1975 -468 337 3,284 1,510 1,070 6,202 191 824 460 138 1,613 7,267 1,272 -43 102 215 131 45 492 138 371 130 53 691 1,402 -238 -2,093 33 1,054 625 312 2,024 69 169 285 61 584 508 53 1,086 218 1,135 454 273 2,079 - -- -2 -2 3,076 230 -757 1,294 13 74 712 385 201 234 171 315 1,096 1,006 64 58 514 141 106 71 747 284 1,060 2,626 2,392 -1,403 -- 1974--Qtr. IV 1975--Qtr. 1 Qtr. I Qtr. III Qtr. IV 63 14 -- -- -- - - -- Aug. Sept. -369 1,917 13 -- 150 562 64 137 47 124 274 822 41 23 229 285 49 57 34 29 353 394 216 3,148 1,007 2,008 Oct. Nov. Dec. 97 -588 1,784 43 31 -267 118 -156 78 -244 71 709 297 58 -- 141 -- 71 -- 14 -- 284 -- 430 99 2,096 15 -2,637 1,219 1975--Nov. 5 12 19 26 -93 -882 19 683 -32 11 -136 131 74 82 -- --- --- - - --- --- -85 910 -7,526 6,114 114 130 355 354 --- -- - -- --- 378 1,043 670 3,216 Dec. 3 -200 -- -- - -- - - - -- -- - -202 -5,793 10 17 24 31 -200 612 1,175 197 --31 -- -118 -- -78 - 71 -- 297 -- ---- -- - --- ----- -204 613 1,492 193 -1,482 515 3,328 -373 1976--Jan. 7 14 -404 -1,380 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - - - -404 -2,022 - - -- - - -- - -1,386 803 1975--July -2,305 - -- -1,358 -46 -154 - - - -2,304 -623 21 28 17 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions(-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JANUARY 16, 1976 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills (1) 3,678 1974--High -289 Low Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Excess** Coupon Issues Bonds Bonds Reserves Total (2) (3) (5) (6) 2,203 -309 253 577 0 -168 3,906 647 176 13 Seasonal (7) 8 New York 38 Others (8) -7,870 (9) -12,826 -2,447 - 6,046 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 464 0 864 -50 871 18 74 5 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 253 1974--Dec. 2,985 1,836 175 258 727 32 -5,960 -10,169 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 147 198 195 398 147 96 14 11 7 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 35 115 170 118 143 155 201 110 66 227 6 -4,079 -10,426 9 -3,965 11 -5,821 - 9,567 - 9,344 60 135 181 122 188 195 191 259 211 17 37 -5,546 -3,964 - 9,896 - 9,966 397 58 -3,551 - 9,015 189 65 29p 14p -2,644 -3,812 - 9,202 60p 131p - ,9 1p - -2,497 -5,045 -3,746 - 8,868 -3,340 - 9,626 144 307 -10,302 Apr. 2,737 May 4,744 June 5,201 1,617 1,752 1,351 July Aug. Sept. 4,231 4,020 5,008 1,246 1,204 588 Oct. 5,766 4,571 *4,822 1,480 2,073 *1,075 156 95 123 173 103 161 2 59p 289p 4,928 4,050 4,765 4,616 2,751 2,585 2,022 1,534 48 172 268 135 194 122 214 163 804 67 43 -37 39 58 73 27 26 26 22 15 14p 12p 12p -3,409 -3,948 - 9,611 -3.179 -11,011 -2,039 -10,179 -2,034 - 9,020 10p -3,232p -5,612p - Nov. Dec. 1975--Nov. 5 12 19 26 Dec. 3 10 4,748 4,620 5,835 *4,546 *4,296 17 24 31 1976--Ja. *4,607 *6.173 7 14 21 28 4 NOTE: 97 - 7,207 91 89 44 31 14 174 184 O 110 121 123 97 63 313 166 247p 260p 470p 66 30 45p 2 20 p 257p 0 34 299p 71 5p 120p 181p 1,281 875 710 *1,256 *1,437 105 84 0 0 *1,144 *1,208 _______________________ ,., _____________ -, Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. -- ____________ - p 4 4p _____________ . 9 p 2 -10,159 8 - __________________ 1 0 5 08 , p -11,632 -10,635 -11,600 8 ,686p -10,76 4p I _________________ Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) _Long-Term Short-Term 1-year (3) 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) Teasury Bills Federal Funds (1) Period 90-Day Aaa Utility Recently New Issue Offered (7) (8) CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day (5) 90-119 Day (6) Municipal Bond Buyer (9) U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturity) (10) FNMA Auction Yield (11) GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 1974--High Low 13.55 8.45 9.54 6.39 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 7.15 5.16 8.68 7.40 10.59 8.43 9.98 7.79 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 7.31 5.46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 1974--Dec. 8.53 6.79 9.18 8.84 9.53 9.56 7.05 7.91 9.53 8.62 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.27 5.56 5.70 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 9.38 6.82 6.39 6.74 7.88 7.71 7.99 9.25 8.93 8.82 8.48 8.03 8.09 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 5.55 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.70 5.67 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.20 9.66 9.65 9.33 6.94 6.97 6.94 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.06 9.27 9.09 8.48 8.51 8.34 July Aug. Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.42 9.45 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.23 7.39 7.43 7.31 8.35 8.28 8.23 8.87 8.50 8.56 5 12 19 26 5.87 5.86 6.10 6.23 5.88 5.81 5.75 5.75 6.13 6.00 6.00 6.00 9.10 9.11 9.40 9.24 9.24 9.30 7.52 7.43 7.39 7.39 8.19 8.22 8.34 8.35 8.40 8.40 8.52 8.66 3 10 17 24 31 6.24 6.44 6.30 6.02 5.76 5.81 5.93 5.98 5.90 5.72 6.13 6.00 5.88 5.63 5.50 9.46 9.37 9.24 7.31 7.34 7.30 7.30 7.29 8.34 8.37 8.20 8.08 8.04 8.57 8.61 8.63 8.59 8.40 7 14 21 28 5.69 5.42 5.44 5.15 5.25 5.00 8.88 8.58p 7.13 7.09 7.99 7.95p 8.45 Oct. Nov. Dec. 1975-Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Daily--Jan. 9 15 4.73 4.80p - 9.25 9.34 9.25 9.19 - 9.13 9.10 8.94 8.66p 8.34 5.25 5.13 " NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement wedk. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The PNHA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNKA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the prevailing ceiling rate. c--Corrected 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES APPENDIX i Total i. . 1 i i I i ii . i .n 2 t Available to Support oi Deposits3 I Adj. Credit proxy Total Loans and Investments 4 5 JAN. 16, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES CREDIT MEASURES iBANK RESERVES9 Period TABLE M M2 M3 M5 M6 M 9 10 11 1I 11.6 10.6 6.7 10.6 9.0 9.8 11.9 8.9 8.7 4 I 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 7.9 8.5 -0.3 7.3 10.7 1.4 9.1 8.9 -0.9 10.4 10.2 4.2 13.5 9.2 4.2 6.1 4.8 4.2 1974 5.9 21.2 5.0 5.4 3.1 3.1 5.4 7.5 6.7 6.5 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 -3.6 3.0 -0.7 3.6 -2.1 0.3 5.3 3.0 5.1 3.1 6.0 2.3 13.0 9.3 7.5 5.7 10.7 8.5 9.9 7.2 -8.4 1.2 -2.2 8.3 -1.3 -0.2 -4.2 11.6 -4.7 0.5 -2.6 3.2 3.1 7.5 -1.3 7.4 5.7 4.6 3.6 2.6 0.8 11.2 2.3 2.3 9.9 15.7 8.5 6.3 8.6 2.9 8.4 8.8 12.3 7.4 9.4 7.6 11.9 6.2 8.1 -0.9 11.6 -2.8 -2.8 5.0 -1.3 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 4.1 5.2 1.4 5.9 1.0 5.1 4.1 4.5 -0.3 8.6 6.9 2.4 7.8 13.8 13.2 8.7 7.4 6.6 5.6 6.9 8.8 10.6 9.9 8.9 7.0 -3.7 -0.8 2.9 15.4 34.9 6.6 7.6 3.4 5.9 11.4 10.8 7.3 19.5 0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.2 0.6 -2.9 6.2 6.4 3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.1 -5.2 -5.5 6.7 5.0 12.8 4.2 5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.8 12.2 9.4 7.8 7.4 12.4 5.6 6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.5 6.1 7.3 11.7 5.9 7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 7.5 6.9 8.5 9.5 9.8 15.9 8.8 2.9 6.9 7.4 10.2 6.4 1973 1974 1975 8.8 6.8 11.4 SEMI-ANNUALLYI 2ND HALF QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 9.9 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. OTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 9.9 9.0 7.4 MONTHLY: 1974--DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. P NOTES: 1/ P - 7.8 -27.3 -5.6 8.2 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.5 3.9 -2.2 12.3 14.9 -19.0 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.6 1.5 -11.5 -2.6 5.1 16.9 12.4 -9.4 4.7 4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 -8.8 -11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 2.9 2.0 -2.4 12.2 -2.8 4.4 8.4 9.1 11.7 7.2 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS. M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUt M7,TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARV APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES JAN. 16, 1976 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS . Period Total Non No borrowed Available to Support pvt. Adj. Credit proxy Deposits 1 2 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVES! 3 Total Loans and Ml Invest- M2 ments 4 3 M3 I 0 7 0 8 9 MS M LU L 10 11 M7 12 720.7 271.5 284.4 296.4 572.2 613.5 667.5 919.6 981.7 1093.9 636.0 703.7 750.8 983.4 1072.0 1177.2 1095.4 1195.1 1305.3 1133.6 1234.7 1342.3 494.3 691.9 284.4 613.5 981.7 703.7 1072.0 1195.1 1234.7 32,761 32,527 32,378 495.8 495.7 498.1 694.6 697.1 701.7 281.6 282.4 285.0 614.8 619.1 625.1 986.3 994.4 1005.9 707.6 711.2 714.8 1079.1 1086.5 1095.7 1203.3 1210.3 1218.6 1242.4 1249.5 1258.3 34,325 33,Q48 34,079 32,457 32,178 32,422 500.2 501.2 507.5 703.7 706.7 709.7 280 .8 288,5 293.0 628.9 635.9 646.1 1015.7 1028.3 1045.3 717.3 721. 730.1 1104.1 1113.9 1129.4 1228.3 1238.5 1255.3 1268.3 1278.7 1295.6 34,423 34,006 34,117 34,122 33,794 33.72] 32,365 32,199 32,215 505.3 503.0 505.8 710.9 714.9 716.1 293.5 294.2 294.7 650.5 653.7 656.3 1055.9 1064.2 1071.1 732.6 731.7 735.4 1138.0 1142.2 1150.2 1264.9 1268.8 1277.4 1305.1 1308.3 1315.8 34,055 34,403 34,829 33 865 34,342 34,698 32,137 32,302 32,474 507.9 513.3 515.1 719.7 726.0 720.7 294.1 297.1 296.4 658.6 665.7 667.5 1077.7 1088.8 1093.9 739.9 747.1 750.8 1158.9 1170.2 1177.2 1286.1 1297.8 1305.3 1323.9 1335.2 1342.3 33,641 34,502 34,625 33,601 34,443 34.551 31,787 32.298 32,436 513.2 514.1 298.3 296.2 296,7 666.1 664.8 666.8 747.1 746.0 748.3 32,191 34,933 34,829 30,892 34,205 34.698 30,077 32,762 32,474 448.7 494.3 515.1 634.6 691.9 1974--DEC. 34,933 34,205 32,762 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 35,160 34,361 34,201 34.762 34.213 34,096 APR. MAY JUNE 34,436 34,014 34,306 JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. P 1973 1974 1975 M4 MONTHLY: WEEKLY: 1975--NOV. 12 19 26 513.5 DEC. 3 lOP 17P 24P 31P 34,718 34,423 35,001 34,678 35,260 34,651 34,393 34,956 34,458 35,003 32,470 32,359 32,671 32,339 32,530 516.1 514.9 515.7 514.4 514.5 299.0 296.4 295.3 295.1 297.3 669.1 667.6 666.2 666.4 668.9 751.6 750.8 749.5 749.9 752.5 1976--JAN. 7P 34.833 34,762 32,122 515.4 296.1 669.3 751.5 NOTES: ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY TOCK AND RELATED MEASURES JAN. 16, 1976 Period (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: I 8.3 10.2 8.7 1973 1974 1975 I 8.5 5.6 15.3 I 13.9 11.8 21.1 38.8 3.4 -6.3 45.3 41.5 -7.8 SEMI-ANNUALLYt 2NO HALF 1974 10.2 1.0 10.5 7.6 5.1 9.9 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 9.4 7.6 5.0 0.6 8.5 8.0 14.6 10.3 16.3 13.3 22.5 17.6 -13.7 -1.9 8.8 9.8 5.1 10.0 -1.7 11.7 1.4 -0.2 10.1 6.7 3.3 12.5 13.4 15.3 9.7 10.5 13.1 18.9 15.5 10.7 20.4 23.5 17.0 17.6 -2.2 -25.4 -23.8 21.2 -7.3 13.5 1.3 8.9 8.7 8.5 7.8 -3.3 8.6 6.6 0.4 12.7 5.2 4.9 10.0 11.0 13.3 13.2 9.7 10.8 17.6 17.6 11.8 17.6 22.5 20.0 16.5 19.2 -24.0 -29.3 11.5 -3.3 2.0 6.6 8.9 1.7 16.6 4.0 9.2 13.2 67.4 5.3 8.8 12.2 1.7 12.1 15.4 5.1 8.4 1.7 8.3 14.9 6.5 -17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11-1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.2 19.2 7.9 3.1 4.5 3.9 11.6 5.5 14.9 12.6 12.1 10.6 15.0 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.6 13.2 8.5 9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3 11.6 11.2 8.9 17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3 22.1 11.2 3.0 -0.3 -5.4 3.5 -15.9 QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 -2.0 1.0 6.0 -18.9 -13.5 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH OTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 1975 -2.6 -20.2 8.1 -9.0 -19.3 -9.9 -52.2 MONTHLY: 1974-DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. P NOTES: 1/ P - -6.5 11.9 -5.9 -4.6 9.1 13.9 11.3 12.0 31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9 33.4 1.5 28.0 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 3.9 -7.8 2.0 0.0 -15.2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 -3.0 -23.9 -30.5 -18.8 -12-7 -9.6 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED 1970. COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. JAN. 16, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES otal TCurrency ime Demand Deposits Period 3 2 1 Time Other Than 4 Mutual Savings Bank Credit Union SShares 5 6 Short Term CD's Savings ds Bonds Commercal US. Gov't Commercial Papery Nondpoit Funds 7 8 9 10 11 Gov't Demand Demand 12 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 61.6 67.9 73.8 209.9 216.5 222.6 364.5 419.3 454.5 300.7 329.1 371.2 322.8 340.8 393.1 24.6 27.5 33.3 59.9 62.8 66.9 52.1 60.3 61.1 38.3 39.6 37.1 1974--NOV. DEC. 67.4 67.9 216.2 216.5 413.5 419.3 328.0 329.1 338.2 340.8 27.2 27.5 62.6 62.8 60.8 60.3 41.4 39.6 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 68.2 68.7 69.4 213.4 213.7 215.6 426.0 428.8 429.9 333.2 336.7 340.1 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39.7 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.2 71.1 216.3 218.3 221.9 431.5 432.9 437.1 343.1 347.4 353.1 357.4 362.5 368.6 29.4 29.9 30.6 64.1 64.4 64.7 60.2 60.2 61.2 40.0 40.2 40.3 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.4 71.9 72.0 222.1 222.3 222.7 439.1 437.4 440.7 357.0 359.4 361.7 374.4 379.0 382.9 31.0 31.5 31.9 65.1 65.4 65.8 61.8 61.2 61.4 40.2 39.4 38.4 OCT. NOV. DEC. F 72.5 73.4 73.8 221.5 223.7 222.6 445.8 450.0 454.5 364.6 368.6 371.2 386.6 390.2 393.1 32.4 32.8 33.3 66.2 66.5 66.9 61.0 61.1 61.1 37.8 37.4 37.1 ] 73.3 73.4 73.4 225.1 222.8 223.3 448.7 449.9 451.6 367.8 368.6 370.1 DEC. 3 10P 17P 24P 31P 73.9 73.8 73.9 73.7 73.7 225.1 222.6 221.5 221.4 223.6 452.5 454.4 454.2 454.8 455.1 370.1 371.2 370.9 371.3 371.6 1976-JAN. 7P 73.7 222.3 455.4 373.2 MONTHLY: WEEKLY: 1975--NOV. J NOTES: 1/ P - I _I -,-- J........ .l.J -- I-~- ______ RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. DATA. PRELIMINARY Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M M3 M2 M Q M Q M q I 3.4 6.8 7.3 9.1 8.8 10.4 II 11.3 7.3 10.6 8.6 10.5 9.1 III 0.6 5.5 5.6 7.8 5.2 7.5 IV 8.7 5.0 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.1 6.3 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.0 1974 5.5 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 II 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 III 1.D 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 5.3 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.8 5.2 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 0.8 -0.3 7.6 5.8 9.9 7.8 II 11.2 8.6 1973 I IV III IV QIV '74-QIV '75 13.4 11.2 2.3 6.9 6.3 2.3 2.4 6.8 6.4 4.2 4.5 8.8 8.7 10,4 15.7 9.9 8.5 11.4 13.8 13.2 8.7 11.3 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A 1976 Alt. B Alt. C QI 4t 5 5k QII 4k 6-1/8 6k QrII 5k 6k 7k QIV 6 6k 7k Appendix Table V Preliminary Revised Seasonal Factors on Demand Deposits and Effects on M1 Growth Rates Preliminary factors Old factors available on Dec. 12, 1975 January February March 103.5 99.0 99.0 103.1 April May June 100.9 97.9 100.9 99.1 99.5 99.55 98.4 99.2 99.8 98.4 99.2 99.8 99.6 100.6 103.3 July August September October November December 1/ 100.5 103.1 98.7 99.0 97.9 New factors Effect on M1 growth (at annual rate)- 102.9 98.8 99.0 6.3 -3.0 100.9 97.9 99.6 0.4 0 99.85 98.45 99.2 99.6 100.6 103.2 -2.5 -5.0 2.1 2.4 0.4 2.0 -2.8 -0.4 The difference is calculated from the old seasonal factors to the new seasonal factors and includes effect of currency seasonals. 

Federal Reserve (1976, January 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760120

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760120,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Jan},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760120},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}