Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC December 12, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC December 12, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 increased at about a 12 per cent annual rate in November, but data available for recent weeks suggest that growth in December will be much slower. For November and December combined, projected to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate. M1is, therefore, Growth in time deposits other than money market CD's has been somewhat stronger than expected at the time of the November FOMC meeting, and M2 is projected to increase at about a 9.7 per cent annual rate over the November-December period, in the upper Net inflows to thrift institu- part of the Committee's range of tolerance. tions have been well maintained. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over November-December Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Ranges of Tolerance M1 6 to 10 7.1 M2 7½ to 10½ 9.7 RPD 4½ to 8½ 4.7 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Latest Estimates Avg. for statement 4½ to 5½ week ending Nov. 19 5.24 Dec. 26 3 5.28 5.25 10 5.26 -2(2) Some of the unexpected strength in "other" time deposits at banks stems from increases in business savings accounts following the recent lifting of the regulatory prohibition on business holdings of such deposits. In the first three weeks after this regulatory change, they rose to about $530 million at the weekly reporting banks. Since this form of saving probably appeals mainly to smaller firms, much of the recent growth may well reflect shifts of funds out of demand deposits. (3) With growth in M2 consistently in the upper part of its range, and M1 growth in November large (particularly after taking account of the shift of corporate deposits from demand to savings accounts), the Desk has continued to seek reserve conditions consistent with Federal funds trading around 5 per cent. Member bank borrowing has remained minimal. Despite the stability of the Federal funds rate, short-term market interest rates have edged higher in recent weeks. These increases appear to reflect in part some market concern that the recent strengthening of key monetary aggregates may before long induce the System to tighten money market conditions. In addition, they may reflect seasonal corporate dividend and tax date pressures. (4) The volume of securities going through longer-term markets has been quite heavy, and longer-term rates have remained at relatively advanced levels. The Treasury this week announced that it will raise $3 billion of new cash through 2-year and 4-year notes to be auctioned in late December. Moreover, the volume of new corporate and municipal bond issues has been large--due in part to heavy foreign financing activity. The enactment of a Federal assistance program for New York City has helped bring about -3scattered declines in municipal yields. But the market is still affected by uncertainties with regard to state agencies, longer-run prospects for the state itself, and legal challenges to the mandated restructuring of New York City's debt. (5) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Calendar Year 1974 Total reserves Twelve Months Nov. '75 over Nov. '74 Six Months Nov. '75 over May. '75 Past Three Past. Months Month Nov. '75 Nov. '75 over over Aug. '75 Oct. '75 8.5 -.2 2.3 10.7 3.3 2.3 8.9 -.9 4.8 4.7 5.9 3.8 12.2 7.2 8.8 9.3 7.3 12.9 6.8 11.4 11.7 9.2 12.5 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 7.2 7.1 8.4 11.7 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 10.1 10.1 9.8 11.7 10.2 4.4 4.7 7.9 11.6 9.2 4.1 5.5 6.2 10.5 2.2 -.3 -.7 1.1 Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits .6 4.7 6.5 1.0 12.3 16.9 5.2 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) / M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 ( plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's .1 -.8 -1.0 -.5 -.3 .4 Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative operating specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the period between now and the next Committee meeting. All of the alternatives can be viewed as being consistent with the FOMC's current longer-run objectives for the aggregates--as indexed by a 5-7½ per cent rate of growth in M1 from QIII '75 to QIII '76. They do, of course, imply differing patterns of growth in M 1 over the target period and differing levels and time paths of interest rates (as shown in appendix table IV). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges of tolerance for December-January M11/ 4½-6½ 4-6 3½-5½ M2 1/ 7½-9½ 7-9 6½-8½ RPD 4½-6 4-6 3½-5½ 4¾-5¾ 5¼-6¼ Federal funds rate 4¼-5¼ 1/ The 2-month growth rates for M1 and M2 are based on preliminary new seasonal factors. Appendix table V compares the new and previous factors for M1 and shows the effect of the change on monthly growth rates. For the December-January period, the new factors add about 2¼ percentage points to the growth rate for M1. The revised money supply series incorporating new seasonal factors will not be published until late January. By that time benchmark and certain other statistical adjustments will have been completed for M1, weekly seasonals consistent with the monthly seasonals will have been developed, and figures for reserves and bank credit will also have been revised. With the exception of the table in paragraph (6), all tables show data based on the old seasonal factors. However, the figures in parentheses in the detailed table on p. 5a reflect the new seasonal factors. -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates. M1 1975 1976 1975 1976 M2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C November December January 297.0 297.5 298.6 297.0 297.0 297.5 298.2 665.6 669.2 673.6 665.6 669.2 673.2 665.6 669.2 672.8 1088.7 1096.3 1104,8 1088.7 1096.2 1104.1 1088.7 1096.1 1103.4 QIII QIV 294.1 296.2 294.1 294.1 296.2 653.5 664.4 653.5 653.5 664.4 1063.7 1087.5 1063.7 1087.5 1063.7 1087.4 QI Oil 301,2 307.4 312.4 300.7 306.7 312.4 300.3 678,7 693.3 706.8 678.0 692.6 312.4 679.8 694.7 706.4 1115.2 1140.8 1161.9 1113.6 1138.6 1162.0 1112.2 1137.4 1162.5 2.0(0.8) , 2.0(0.8) 2.0(0.8) 6.5(5.9) 4.4(9.9) 2.8(8.3) QIII 297.5 298.4 296.2 306.3 664.4 707.2 Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 1976 December 1/ January 17 3.6(9.1) 6.5(5.9) 6.5(5.9) 7.9(10.7) 7.2(10.0) 6.5(9.3) 8.4 9.3 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.6 9.0 8.2 8.9 Quarterly Average: QIV QI QII QIII 2.9 6.8 8.2 6.5 2.9 6.1 8.0 7.4 2.9 5.5 8.0 8.0 6.7 9.3 8.8 6.7 6.7 8.6 8.6 7.8 6.7 8.2 8.6 8.4 9.0 10.2 9.2 7.4 QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76 4.8 7.4 4.5 7.8 4.2 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 8.3 7.5 8.6 9.7 8.4 9.4 8.7 9.1 9.0 QIII '75-QIII '76 6.2 6.2 6.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 1975 1976 9.1 9.1 8.8 1/ Figures in parentheses represent rates of growth based on the preliminary new seasonal factors and are consistent with 2-month growth rates shown in summary table in paragraph (6). -5b- Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M4 Alt, A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C November December January 747.0 751.9 757.0 747.0 -751.9 756.6 747.0 751.9 756.2 1170.1 1179.0 1188.3 1170,1 1178.9 1187.5 1170.1 1178.8 1186.8 512.9 516.1 519.4 512.9 516.1 519.1 512.9 516.1 518.8 1975 QIII QIV 733.2 746.2 733.2 746.2 733.2 746.2 1143.5 1169.3 1143.5 1169.3 1143.5 1169.2 504.7 512.3 504.7 512.3 504.7 512.3 1976 QI QII QIII 764.1 780.9 794.5 762.8 779.3 794.6 762.1 778.6 795.1 1199.5 1227.0 1250.0 1197.7 1224.6 1249,7 1196.3 1223.4 1250.4 523.0 530.4 535.3 522.1 529.2 535.3 521.5 528.7 535.7 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.9 6.9 9.1 9.5 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.1 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.0 7.5 6.3 7.1 9.6 8.8 7.0 7.1 8.9 8.7 7.9 7.1 8.5 8.7 8.5 9.0 10.3 9.2 7.5 9.0 9.7 9.0 8.2 9.0 9.3 9.1 8.8 6.0 8.4 5.7 3.7 6.0 7.7 5.4 4.6 6.0 7.2 5.5 5.3 QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76 8.4 8.0 8.1 8.3 7.9 8.7 9.8 8.4 9.5 8.7 9.2 9.0 7.3 4.7 6,9 5.1 6.7 5.4 QIII '75-QIII '76 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 1975 1976 Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 1976 December January Quarterly Averages: 1975 1976 QIV QI QII QIII -6(7) Under alternative B the Federal funds rate range is centered around the 5¼ per cent level that has been prevailing for several weeks. The staff believes that in these circumstances M 1 would grow in about a 4-6 per cent, annual rate, range and M 2 in a 7-9 per cent range. Growth of M 1 in the December-January period is expected to be constrained by continuing shifts of corporate funds from demand deposits to savings accounts. The expected range of M 1 growth reflects our assumption that such shifts may reduce M growth by 1 to 1 percentage points. This assumption is based on an evaluation of early data on the increase in corporate savings accounts and our expectation that the pace at which funds are transferred out of demand accounts will slow. (8) Assuming little change in money market conditions, the 3-month bill rate is likely to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range between now and the next Committee meeting. The rate could drop somewhat as mid- December dividend and tax date pressures ease, but offsetting upward pressures are likely to be generated by a continuation of the Treasury's practice of raising sizable amounts of new cash in the weekly and monthly bill auctions. Longer-term rates are likely to change little over the period ahead. The holiday period will provide only a brief respite for the market, since the prospective volume of new corporate and municipal offerings in January remains relatively sizable and a large amount of Treasury financing is anticipated for the first quarter of the year. -7(9) The basic outlook over the longer run for monetary aggregates and interest rates appears little changed from the previous blue book. Under alternative B, the Federal funds rate would be expected to begin rising by around mid-winter and may reach the 7-7½ per cent range by summer, which would be a shade less than projected last time. Growth in time deposits other than large CD's is expected to moderate progressively over the first half of next year. We have assumed that shifts of funds from demand deposits into corporate savings accounts will become negligible by late winter, but this assumption is subject to considerable uncertainty because of the novelty of the development. (10) Although there may be some effort on the part of banks to issue CD's for year-end window-dressing purposes, banks are not likely to be aggressive issuers of CD's in the weeks ahead. Loan demands are likely to remain on the moderate side, and banks should have ample funds from other sources to accommodate these demands. Moreover, there are no signs that banks are significantly changing their conservative lending and liability management policies. Thus, bank credit growth will probably be relatively moderate in the December-January period, and also in the first half of next year. (11) Alternative A contemplates a decline in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 4¼-5¼ per cent range. Given the high rates of growth in the monetary aggregates in November, such an easing in the money market would be contrary to current market expectations and might be accompanied by a sizable near-term decline in short-term rates. On the other hand, many market participants may take the view that such an easing is only temporary and, to that extent, declines in market rates would be limited. Under this alternative, the staff expects that the funds rate would have to begin rising later in the -8winter in order to attain the FOMC's current longer-run monetary objectives and that the rate would be in the 7½-8 per cent area by summer. This alternative, therefore, would ultimately tend to exert considerable pressure on savings inflows at thrift institutions and banks. (12) of the 5 -6 Under alternative C, a rise in the funds rate to the mid-point per cent range between now and the next meeting is contemplated. Such a move would likely be accompanied by increases of point to ¾ of a percentage in other short-term rates and by smaller upward adjustments in longer- term rates. Net inflows of consumer-type time and savings deposits at banks and thrift institutions would be expected to moderate somewhat from their recent pace over the next few weeks. Later on, however, they would be subject to less pressure than under alternatives A or B since the early tightening of money market conditions would tend to limit the extent to which interest rates would need to rise in the future in order to keep growth in the monetary aggregates on target, given the staff's GNP projection. Proposed directive (13) Shown below is a proposed operational paragraph for consideration if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expecta- tion that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider its present 5 to 7½ per cent target range for M1, with which all of the short-run operating alternatives discussed in the preceding sections are consistent. "Monetary Aggregate" Proposal usual] than more To implement this policy, while taking[DEL: account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (14) Should the Committee desire to formulate the directive in terms of bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. These alternative "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. -10Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking [DEL: usual] than more account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES ABOVE THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking[DEL: usual]account than more of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED[DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking[DEL: usual] than more account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates monetary in growth -11(14) In all four of the alternatives, it is proposed to delete the words "more than usual" in the phrase, "while taking more than usual account of developments in domestic and international financial markets," since action by the Federal Government has somewhat eased New York City's nearterm financial problems. CONFIE NTIAL(FR) CLASS g-FOMC CHART 1 12/12/75 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 8Y2% growth for Nov A M J 1974 S D M J 1975 S S 0 1975 D RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios N D CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 12/12/75 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 00 .280 I 1JI I 260 A 0 1975 N 0 CHART 3 12/12/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RESERVES BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 39 TOTAL 1975 1974 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios 12/12/75 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT 1 14 INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT PER CENT - - 13 FUNDS ,L - 11 FR DISCOUNT RATE 1974 1975 1974 1975 1974 1875 11 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES DEC. 12, 1975 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE EQUIRED RESERVES AGGREGATE RESERVES ___ _ . _SEASONALLY T ADJUSTED . Total Time Gov't. and SA NSA Reserves Reserves Required Demand Deposits Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NONBANK DEPOSITS Total Nonborrowed Total Private MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEL. 32,424 32,345 32,486 (32,598) 32,242 32,247 32.498 132,812) 34,320 34,257 34,607 134,970) 33.923 34,067 34,547 (34.910) 34,129 34,050 A4,324 (34,781) 19.870 19,628 19,737 (19,852) 1.2 -2* 7.61 -0.2 -4.2 11.6) 1.2 -2.1 S 7.6) I 11.7 1.4 -0.4) 1 -3.6 -1.1 2.2) I 8.0 5.7 -2.0) ( 4.1 -2.8 9.7 16.0) 4.5 -14.6 6.7 7.0) ( 12,365 12,510 12,466 (12,556) 1.894 1.912 2,121 f 2.373) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTRe 0.6 -2.6 ( 2 1) ( ( -15.4 -8.7 ( 6.2) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR. I -2.5 -1.2 0.1) -3.7 -0.8 ( 2.6) -2.8 -2.8 ( 5.0) 0.6 -2.9 5.2 4.1) 3.9 -2 .2 12.3 12.6) I -2.6 5.1 16.9 12.6) 4.7) 12.5) 1 14.8) -17.0 ( -12.2 2.1) MONTHLY 1975--SEPT. OCT* NOV. DEC. NOV.-DEC. S12.9) ( 6.8) -5.4 14.1 -4.2 8.7) 2.2) WEEKLY LEVELS.-1MTLL1NS -----------"' NOTE: 1975--NOV. 5 32,920 32,016 32,426 32,620 329969 31,905 32.541 32,569 34,970 33,842 34,707 34,833 34,903 33,802 34,648 34,759 34,106 33,830 349t22 34,621 19,628 19,496 199804 19938 12,428 12,509 12,437 12,470 2,049 1,825 29281 2,213 DEC. 3 10 32,635 32,531 32,748 32,389 34,924 34,637 34,657 34,607 34,595 34,463 19,827 19.832 12,480 12,'26 2,289 2,106 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF NOV. 18, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OF 4.5 TO 8.5 PERCENT FOR THE NOV.-DEC. PERIOD. CONFIDENTIAL (F R ) CLASS II-FOMC Table 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES DEC. 12, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period 1 Proxy Deposits Nondeposit Sources of Than CD's CD's Funds 6 7 8 Total 5 4 3 2 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other LEVELS-S8ILLIONS 361.7 364.5 368.6 440.7 445.7 450.0 (454.4) (371.7) 1 6.7 3.3 12.4) 1 15.3 9.7 11.1) -25.4 -23.8 1 18.2) ( 5.2 4.9 9.9) I 13.3 13.2 9.9) -24.0 -29.3 ( 10.5) 6.7 5.2 11.6 7.5) ( 9.1 13.6 11.6 11.7) I 7.7 9.3 13.5 10.1) 1 16.9 33.4 1.5 19.21 9.6) ( 11.7) ( 11.9) I 10.3) 294.7 294.0 297.0 (297.51 656.3 658.5 665.6 (669.2) 505.8 508.0 512.9 (516.11 ( 11. 2.3 3.8) ( 13.4 6.3 7.9) ( 7.5 -1.3 8.1) I 8.6 6.9 2.9) 1 11.2 10.4 6.7) ( 5.2 1.4 6.0) ( 2.0 -2*9 1,.2 2.01 ( 4*8 4.0 1:.9 6.51 ( I .7) 1975--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. PERCENT U S Govt (M2) (Ml) MDM1HLY Adjusted Credit 3.1 2.9 3.5 ( 26) ( 79.1 81.3 81.4 82.7) ( 7.0 T.9 8.2 8.4) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--ZND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1975--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. MONTHLY 1975--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ( NOV.-OEC. 7.11) I WEEKLY LEV:LS-$BILLIONS 1975--OCT. NOV. DEL. 29 292.5 658.0 507.2 2.4 446.7 365.5 81.3 7.9 5 12 19 26 P 296.1 298.0 296.4 296.7 662.0 665.7 664.9 666.8 510.2 513.1 513.5 514.1 3.0 3.9 3.9 3.3 446.9 448.7 449 451.6 365.9 367.7 368.5 370.0 81.0 80.9 81e2 81.5 8.0 7.9 8.6 8.5 3 P 299.1 669.1 516.2 3.4 452.3 369.9 82*4 8.0 . DATA NOTI: NOTt; DATA S SHOWN IN SHOWN IN - . - CURRENT PROJECtIONS. PARENThESES PARENTHESES ARE ARE CURRENT PROJECTlONS. S P P *PRILIMINARY - PRELIMINARY - S 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II- FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills 6 Accept. Period July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total Daily Average Reserve Effects Open Market A Member Other 4/ Operations Bank Borrowing Factors 6 In Reperve Catgories . Req. res. against available res. 5/ U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (9) (10) .Target available reserves 5/ (11) (7) (8) 5,064 -3,165 -50 211 -5,747 3,438 1 -96 -734 580 -170 215 -2,926 1,222 5,155 -832 -1,332 2,458 -10 -50 186 553 1,210 -2,432 167 -124 98 -456 -48 114 -325 -45 10 15 -2,637 445 -2,537 1,276 521 -204p -130p -1,135p -327p 15 26p -78p 38p 766 -1,098 527 -353 54 6p (2) (3) (4) 197 -413 50 958 -97 -6 -3,357 -1,855 -3,207 -1,317 -2,302 -371 1,932 -274 822 -2 313 393 -623 1,007 2,008 147 -608 -709 284 -1 (1) 1975--May June Open Market Operations Coupon Agency RP's Issues Issues Net 3/ (5) (6) 265 278 353 Jan. 1975--Oct. 1 8 15 22 29 435 -240 -932 501 690 ---- 394 --284 -1,092 -5,806 1,548 3,527 793 -263 -6.047 616 4,028 1,767 2,798 -2,763 -1,935 935 2,418 186 -343 -65 60 -138 -2,157 1,922 2,462 -1,112 6 -2,15 p 61 -86 -65 236 -422p Nov. 5 12 19 26 -85 -910 23 689 -355 354 -1 ---- -7,526 6,114 670 3,216 -7,612 5,204 1,048 4,259 407 -4,580 2,243 2,995 -28 -27 19 15 -104p 3 , 93p -1,301p -3,037p 20 p -150p 2 3 5p 5 -5 p Dec. 3 10 17 24 31 -202 -204 - -- -5,793 -1,482 -5,994 -1,686 -1,064 -2,536 -7 -37 1,207p 2,152p -43p -63p 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 3 0 75 p 6 -1,0 4p 636p 28 p 179p -358p auctions. Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Ifcludes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.A. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. 5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for November and December reflects the target adopted at the November 18, 1975 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -- FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Federal Agencies Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period 1972 1973 1974 -490 7,232 1,280 1974--qtr.III Within 1-year 1- 87 207 320 789 579 797 5 5 - 10 539 500 434 Net Over 10 Within 1-year Total 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 Net Change urchases 4/ Outright 5 - 10 Over 10 Total Holdings Total 5/ 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 168 101 318 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 -46 -154 1 - 5 RP's Net6/ 945 49 118 62 73 302 195 726 165 117 1,203 2,620 -986 Qtr.IV -43 102 215 131 45 492 138 371 130 53 691 1,402 -238 1975--Qtr. I -2,093 33 1,054 625 312 2,024 69 169 285 61 584 508 1,086 218 1,135 454 273 2,079 - -- -2 -- -2 3,076 230 -757 13 712 201 171 1,096 64 514 106 63 747 1,060 2,392 1975--June -352 20 650 180 109 958 - -- -- - 539 -1,855 July -2,305 Qtr. II Qtr. III - - - -- -- -- -- - -2,304 -623 -369 1,917 13 -- 150 562 64 137 47 124 274 822 41 23 229 285 49 57 34 29 353 394 216 3,148 1,007 2,008 97 -588 43 -267 156 -244 -709 58 - 141 -- 71 -- 14 -- 284 - 430 99 15 -2,637 1 413 -- -- - - -- 23 285 57 29 394 8 15 22 -239 -926 479 - --- -- --- -- ---- ---- --- - 29 671 - -- -- -- - 58 141 71 14 5 12 -93 -882 - - -- --- --- --- -- -- 19 26 19 683 32 11 136 131 114 130 355 354 --- 3 10 -200 -200 - --- -- -- -- Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1975--Oct. Nov. Dec. -- -- 74 82 -- -- -- - 829 -1,092 -- -240 -932 502 -5,806 1,548 3,527 284 974 793 - -- -85 910 -7,526 6,114 -- -- --- 378 1,043 670 3,216 --- -- -- -202 -204 17 24 31 Ij Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. 4/ 5/ 53 Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' System, ahd redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the -5,793 -1,482 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills Coupon Issues (2) (1) Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** Dealer Positions Corporate Bonds Municipal Bonds Excess** Reserves (5) Total (6) Seasonal 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 577 -168 3,906 647 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 864 -50 871 18 -7,387 -1,757 -11,664 1974--Nov. Dec. 2,900 1,608 1,836 205 258 1,252 727 -6,322 -5,960 - 9,715 2,985 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3.143 2,050 2,121 2,521 147 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 195 398 147 96 Apr. May June 2,737 4,744 5,201 1,617 1,752 1,351 143 155 201 110 66 227 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 - 9,567 July Aug. Sept. 4,231 4,020 5,008 1,246 1,204 588 188 195 191 259 211 397 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 Oct. Nov. 5,766 *4,571 1,480 207p 283p 188p 60p -2,644 -4,488p - 9,202 *2,073 1975--Oct. 4,657 5,812 7,029 6,037 5,085 462 846 1,576 462 581 238 173 22 3p 95 p -2,575 -2,663 -3,475 -2,236 -2,206 - 7,207 - 9,923 -10,042 - 9,398 - 7,661 5 12 19 26 4,928 4,050 *4,765 *4,616 2,751 2,585 *2,022 *1,534 67 p 40p 59 p 74p -2,497 -5,045 -3,746 -3,340 - 8,868 -11,632 -10,635 - 9,626 3 10 17 24 31 *4,748 *4,620 *1,281 * 875 67p 30p - , 5 p -4,055p Nov. Dec. -- i-- NOTE: 198 -24 313 2 9p 286p 1,835 1,456 864p 12p 185p 212p - " - ~LIIIL L- 3 4 i ~ - 6,046 - 7,207 -10,169 -10,302 - 9,344 - 9,966 - 9,015 -10,055p 70 9 - 9, 1p -11,664p - - Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 12, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) S STreasury Bills Federal Period 1974-High Low 1975--High Low 1974--Nov. Funds (1) 90-Day 1-year (2) (3) 13.55 8.45 9.63 6.53 9.54 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 Short-Term CD's New Issue-NYC 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) Municipal Bond Long-Term U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant FNMA Auction GNMA Guaranteed Yield Securities Issue (7) Offered (6) 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 7.15 5.16 8.68 7.40 10.59 8.43 9.98 7.79 60-89 Day 190-119 Day (5) Aaa Utility Recently New (5) Buyer (9) Maturity) (10) 111) 12.25 7.88 12.25 7.31 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.46 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 7.29 6.79 8.95 9.18 8.78 9.00 8.72 8.84 9.21 9.53 9.34 9.56 6.61 7.05 7.99 7.91 9.87 9.53 8.71 8.62 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 9.38 6.82 6.39 6.74 7.88 7.71 7.99 9.25 8.93 8.82 8.48 8.03 8.09 6.94 6.97 6.94 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.06 9.27 9.09 8.48 8.51 8.34 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 8.35 8.28 9.80 9.80 8.87 8.50 6.39 8.00 9.45 7.47 Dec. S8.53 7.15 1975-Jan. 7.13 6.24 Mar. 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 6.27 Feb. Apr. 5.49 5.22 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.70 5.67 5.85 5.44 5.34 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.20 9.66 5.55 5.61 5.23 5.34 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.42 9.45 9.68 9.43 9.49 Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 Oct. Nov. 5.82 5.22 5.96 5.48 6.48 6.07 6.35 6.08 5.69 6.45 6.03 9.45 9.20 9.43 9.26 7.39 7.43 7.00 6.75 6.38 6.00 6.13 9.72 9.60 9.70 9.56 9.41 9.30 9.33 8.59 8.43 8.34 8.26 8.22 9.10 9.11 9.40 9.24 9.24 9.30 9.25 8.19 8.22 8.34 8.35 9.32 9.46 9.34 9.27p 8.34 3 8. 9p 9.32 May June July Aug. 5.56 5.70 5.78 9.65 9.33 Dec. 1975--Oct. 22 29 5.73 5.65 7.26 6.88 6.61 6.37 6.18 5 5.17 5.24 5.24 5.28 5.87 5.86 6.10 6.23 6.13 5.25 5.26 6.24 6.44 6.13 6.00 1 8 15 Nov. 12 19 26 Dec. 3 10 17 6.36 6.06 5.82 6.00 6.00 9.53 9.32 9.22 6.00 9.37p 9.95 9.65 9.33 24 31 Daily--Dec. 4 11 NOTE: 5.61 5.56 6.39 6.38 8.32 n.d. For columns 7, B, and 10, Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 12 is a one-day quote for Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the prevailing ceiling rate. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES RESERVESSSRESER Period Non- Total orow borrowed Total to AdJ Loans Support Pvt Credit proxy and Invest Deposits 1 2 3 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974 1975 MONEY STOCK MEASURES CREDIT BANK MEASURES Available DEC. 12, M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 8 9 10 11 12 ments 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 10.8 7.9 ft.5 7*4 7.3 10.7 10.1 9.2 8.9 11.3 ] 10.4 10.2 14.6 13.5 9.2 8.7 h 1 10.9 .o0 0.3 21.1 12.6 9 .0 14.5 5.4 15.0 3.1 6:6 3.1 -3.6 -0.7 -2.1 5.3 5.1 b6.0 13.2 8.5 6.8 11 12.5 11.6 10.6 14.0 10.6 9.0 12.9 11.9 0.9 13.3 7.5 10.9 6.7 11.0 6.5 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 1ST HALF 1975 7.9 5.4 7.5 9.9 6.Q 9.0 6.b 9.9 6.3 8.6 2.9 12.3 7.4 13.0 QUARTERLY: LTH OTRe 1974 3.6 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RO OTR. 1975 1975 1975 -8.4 1.2 -2.2 0.9 4.2 -1.3 -0.2 -4.2 -4.7 0.6 .6 3.1 7.5 -1.3 5.7 4.6 3.6 a.a 11.2 36.4 -1.0 0.3 2.3 7.6 11.9 6.2 OUARTERLY-AV: QTR. 1074 1.4 27.5 2.6 3.5 0.2 3.9 58 7.3 6.6 6.8 1ST OTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD QTR. 1975 1975 1975 -0.9 -3.7 -0.8 11.6 -2.8 -2.8 -1.4 -2.5 -1.2 4.1 5.2 1.4 1.0 5.1 4.1 -0.3 8.6 0o.9 7.8 13.8 13.2 7.4 6.6 5.6 8.8 10.6 9.9 8.0 9.9 9.6 -1.4 15.4 19.0 34.8 -2.5 6.6 5.2 7.6 8.5 3.4 7.7 5. 5.7 11.4 6.2 10.8 5.8 9.4 7.9 -27.3 -5.6 8.2 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.6 3.9 -2.2 12.3 19.5 -19.0 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.7 1. -11.5 0.0 -8.6 3.6 -0.2 508 5.1 2.4 15.1 -1.2 -5.5 6.7 5.2 11.6 -11. 3.4 5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.8 12.2 9.4 7.8 7.2 12.5 7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 4.4 8.4 9.0 11.7 8.2 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.3 9.2 3.7 8.1 8.2 10.7 4TH MONTHLY: 1974--NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P NOV. P - 5*1 16.9 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.1 0.6 -2.9 5.2 5.0 -9.4 4.7 4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 Z.9 2.0 -2.9 12.2 " NOTES: 6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.5 6.1 7.2 11.7 " " LOANS SOLD 10 BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. RLLATED INSTITUTIONS, WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVLRAGES. , M7,TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES DEC. 12, 1975 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period Total Non borr borrowed Available to Support Pvt Adl Credit proxy Deposits 1 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVU RESERVES Total Loans and Invest MI M2 6 7 M3 M4 MS M6 M7 9 10 11 12 ments 2 3 4 5 30,016 32,377 28,966 31,078 27,734 30,272 406.4 448.7 559.0 634.6 255.8 271.5 525.7 572.2 844.9 919.6 569.7 636.0 888.8 963.4 985.5 1095.4 1013.1 1133.6 1974--NOV. DEC. 34,693 35,138 33,441 34,411 32,79r, 32,075 491.2 494.3 697.4 691.9 2B3.6 284.4 611.6 613.5 976 .9 981.7 697.1 703.7 1062.4 1072.0 1185.8 1195.1 1227.2 1234.7 175--JAN. FEB. MAR. 35,368 34,564 34,404 34,970 34,417 34,298 32,974 32,739 32,588 495.8 495.7 498.1 694.6 697.1 701.7 281.6 282.4 285.0 614.8 619.1 62 .1 986.3 994.4 1005.9 707.6 711.2 714.8 1079.1 1086.5 1095.7 1203.3 1210.3 1218.6 1242.4 1249.5 1258.3 APR. MAY JUNE 34,640 34,216 34,510 34,530 34,150 34,e83 32,668 32,388 32,633 500.2 501.2 507.5 703.7 706.7 709.7 285.8 288.5 293.0 628.9 635.9 6.6.1 1015.7 1028.3 1045.3 717.3 721.5 730.1 1104.1 1113.9 1129.4 1228.3 1238.5 1255.3 1268.3 1278.7 1295.6 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,628 34,20 34,320 34,326 33,996 33,923 32,575 32,409 32,424 505.3 503.0 505.8 710.9 714.e 716.1 293.5 294.2 £94.7 6,0.5 653.7 656.3 1055.9 1064.2 1071.1 732.6 731.7 735.4 1138.0 1142.2 1150.2 1264.0 1268.8 1277.4 1305.1 1308.3 1315.8 OCT. P NOV. P 34,257 34,607 34,067 34,547 32.345 32,486 508.0 512.9 719.7 726.0 294.0 297.0 658.5 665.6 1077.5 1088.7 739.8 747.0 1158.8 1170.1 1286.1 1297.6 1323.8 1334.3 22P 29P 33,945 34,312 34,153 34,320 33,706 34,139 33,920 34,225 32,087 32,500 32,051 32,518 506.9 507.9 508.7 507.2 293.4 294.7 294.3 292.5 656.3 659.1 659.0 658.0 737.9 740.5 740.0 739.3 NOV. 5P 12P 19P 26P 34,970 33,842 34,707 34,833 34,903 33,802 34,648 34,759 32,920 32,016 32,426 32.620 510.2 513.1 513.5 514.1 Z96.1 298.0 296.4 296.7 662.0 665.7 664.9 666.8 743.0 746.7 746.2 748.3 DEC. 3P 34,924 34,857 3L.635 516.2 299.1 669.1 751.4 ANNUALL: 1972 1973 MONTHLY: WEEKLY: 1975--OCT. 8 1 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA AKE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSIT . 1/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS nERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: DEC. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 12, 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Demand u Perod PerDeaposits Tl Te 1 Mutual ther Than Savings Bank 3 6.9 5,.5 3.1 15.7 16.2 15.0 13.5 11.4 9.4 16.7 8.5 5.o 18.0 1 r:.0 13.9 11.8 Term Savings Bonds CD's ANNUALLY: 1072 1973 1974 Short Cred Union CD's and S & L Shares y 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Cu c Deposits SSharesi 2 Time U S e S Gov't curities 8 Commercial per 9 10 31 .0 45 .3 41 .5 0.5 30.9 15.7 15.0 38.A 54 -0 22.1 19.2 11.2 12e. -5.4 3.t SEMI-ANNUALLY: IST 2ND HALF HALF 1974 1974. 5.2 1.0 18.6 10.5 10.9 7.6 5.9 '.1 LST HALF 1975 5.0 8.5 14.6 16.3 4TH OTR. 1974 3.11 11.6 7.9 6.9 12.0 25.9 4.0 -34.2 1ST QTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR. 1975 1975 197T 10.1 6,7 3.3 13.4 15.3 9.7 13.1 18.9 15.5 ,0.4 2j.5 17.0 -2.2 -25'. -23 .8 -7.3 13.5 1.3 1.0 6.0 -16.9 3.0 -13.7 3.5 QUARTERLY: -1.7 11.7 1.4 QUARTtRLY-AV: 47H OTR. 1ST OTR* 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 1974 , 1975 1975 1975 1.7 9.7 8.2 4.9 10.o -3.3 11.0 13.3 13.2 10.8 17,6 17.6 17.6 L2 5' 6.6 12.7 5.2 4.9 5.6 1.7 4.1 16.8 7.7 4.0 19.2 7.9 3.1 4.5 3.9 11.6 5.5 -4.6 9.1 13.6 11.6 14.9 12.6 IL.1 10.6 15. 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.3 13.5 8.6 15.2 e0.0 19.2 -24.0 -29.3 7.1 9 e 13.4 13.2 -9.7 67.4 9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 1 7.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3 11.6 11.2 17.5 17.2 31.9 -7.9 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9 33.4 1.5 10 . -9.4 -3.3 2.0 6.6 -20.2 8.1 -9.0 -2.0 -'5.3 -52.2 MONTHLY: 1974--NOV. DEC. -17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11.1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.2 -6.5 11 . 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P OCT. NOV. P 1 NOTES: 1/ P - __ 1. & . . _______ O0.d Z0.', 28.1 15.7 19.4 18.8 18.5 I RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARe INCLUDED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGIN INING OCTOBER 1, 1970. GPUWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATEO MONTHLY AVFRAGE LEVELS PREVIOUS MONTH RhPOR1EU DATA. PRELIMINARY. -9, 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 3.9 -5.9 -3 .9 I BEGINNING OCTOBER I 16, DERIV C 4Y AVERAGING 1969, END OF -1".2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 -3.0 -23.9 -30.5 -21.9 -28.6 ' AND REQUIREMENTS ON CURRENT MONTH BANK-RELATED AND END OF DEC. 12, 1975 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time Period Currency emand Deposits Mutual Total Other Savings Credit Deposits CD's Vnion CD's and & L as35 5 Shares 6 6 7 7 8 8 Time ank Than Short Term .S Savings Bonds deposit Gov't SecuresJ Paery 9 1 9 10 Funds 11 11 Demand 12 12 2 3 4 4 56.9 61.6 190.9 209.9 313.8 304.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.8 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.o 38.3 1974--OCT. NOV. DEC. 66.* 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.5 412.1 413.5 419.3 325.9 328.0 329.1 336.2 338.2 340.8 i6.9 27.2 17. 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.6 62.8 60.9 60.8 60.3 43.4 41.4 39.6 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 68.2 66.7 69.4 213.4 213.7 215.6 446.0 448.8 429.9 333.2 336.7 340.1 343.o 346.9 352.0 L7.9 92.7 92.1 89.b 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39e7 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.e 71.1 216.3 218.3 241.9 431.5 432.9 437.1 343.1 347.4 353.1 357.4 362.5 368.6 30.b 88.4 85.5 84.1 64.1 64.4 64.7 60.2 60.2 61c2 40.0 40.2 40.3 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.4 71.9 72.0 222.1 222.3 222.7 439.1 437.4 440.7 357.0 359.4 361.7 374.4 379.0 382.9 31.0 31.5 31.v 82.1 78d*0 79.1 65.1 65.4 65.8 61.8 61.2 61.4 40.2 39.4 P P 72.6 73.3 221.5 223.7 445.7 450.0 364.5 368.6 366.o 390.2 32.4 32.9 81.3 66.2 66.6 61.1 60.9 37.7 36.8 8 15 22P 29P 72.5 72.6 72.5 72.7 221.0 222.1 221.9 219.9 444.5 445.8 445.7 446.7 36,.9 364.4 3b4.6 365.5 81.6 81.4 81.0 81.3 5P I2P 19P 26P 72.8 73.3 73.4 73.4 223.3 224.7 223.0 223.3 446.9 448.7 449.8 451.6 365.9 367.7 368.5 370,0 61.0 80.9 81.2 81.5 3P 73.9 225.s 452.3 369.9 82.4 1 U.S. Non- Commercia ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 MONTHLY: OCT. NOV. 216.2 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.9 b1.4 38.4 WEEKLY: 1975--OCT. NOV. DEC. - - NOTES: 1/ P - - - . - . - . - . - . . - . - . - . - .- RESERVE RGUIREMENIS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEbINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED 1970. COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGGINNING OCTOBER 1, ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING kNb OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. DATA. PRELIMINARY Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M2 M1 M 1973 9. M 9 10.4 3.4 6.8 7.3 9.1 8.8 II 11.3 7.3 10.6 8.6 10.5 9.1 III 0.6 5.5 5.6 7.8 5.2 7.5 8.7 5.0 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 6.1 6.3 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.0 I 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 II 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 III 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 5.2 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 7.6 5.8 9.9 7.8 15.7 QIV '72-QIV '73 IV QIV '73-QIV '74 1975 M I IV 1974 Q M3 0.8 -0.3 11.2 8.6 13.4 11.2 2.3 6.9 6.3 10.4 9.9 13.8 13.2 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 QIV 5-3/8 5-3/8 5-3/8 1976 QI 5% 5% 6 QII 6% 6% 6 QIII 7% 7 6 Appendix Table V Preliminary Revised Seasonal Factors on Demand Deposits and Effects on M 1 Growth Rates January Old factors New factors Effect on M growth (at1 1 annual rate)- 103.5 February 99.0 103.1 98.7 5.5 -0.4 March 99.0 99.0 -3.4 April May June 100.9 97.9 99.1 100.9 97.9 99.5 0.4 0 July August September October November December 99.55 98.4 99.2 98.8 100.5 103.1 99.8 98.4 99.2 99.6 100.6 103.3 1/ Includes effect of currency seasonals. -4.1 2.1 2.0 -- m 1.5 -3.2 -1.2 

Federal Reserve (1975, December 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751216

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19751216,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751216},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}