Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. 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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC November 14, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) November 14, 1975 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 declined at about a 3 per cent annual rate in October, but data for early November are consistent with the staff forecast of a substantial rebound in the current month. For the two-month target period, M 1 is projected to expand at an annual rate of about 4 per cent, somewhat above the low end of the Committee's range of tolerance. With growth in consumer-type time deposits a little stronger than projected, M2 is expected to grow at about a 7½ per cent annual rate over the two-month target period--somewhat above the mid-point of its tolerance range. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over October-November Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Ranges of Tolerance Latest Estimates M1 3 to 7 4.1 M2 5½ to 8½ 7.7 0 to 4 2.1 RPD Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 5¼ to 6¼ Avg. for statement week ending Oct. 22 5.73 29 5.65 Nov. 5 5.17 12 5.24 -2(2) October. There was some increase in total short-term business credit in Outstanding business loans at banks expanded by a relatively sizable amount, mainly at banks outside the major money market centers, but this was offset in part by another decline in commercial paper issued by nonfinancial corporations. Outstanding bank CD's have shown little change since the build-up that occurred in late September and early October. While this mainly reflected the continuing weakness in business loans at large banks, several New York City banks appear to have experienced some investor reluctance to acquire their CD's and did not aggressively seek such funds. These banks also relied less than they usually do on purchases of Federal funds during the past month and generally have lengthened the maturities of their managed liabilities. (3) Immediately following the October FOMC meeting, the Desk sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate in a 5½ to 5¾ per cent range but with the expectation that the rate would be moved down to 5 per cent unless incoming data on the aggregates indicated more rapid growth. Data available shortly after the Committee meeting did in fact suggest some strengthening in monetary growth causing the Desk to slow the movement to a 5½ per cent rate. As a result, the funds rate averaged 5.65 per cent in the week ending October 29. When subsequent data suggested a considerable weakening in the aggregates, the Desk followed a more accommodative approach to reserve provision, and the funds rate moved to the 5¾ per cent lower limit of the Committee's range of tolerance. As the funds rate dropped increasingly below the discount rate, member bank borrowing -3dwindled. Although the latest data indicate a strengthening in the aggregates, the Desk has continued to aim at a funds rate around 5 per cent in view of the proximity of the November Committee meeting and the continuing uncertainties affecting financial markets. (4) Short-term rates dropped another 20-50 basis points over the intermeeting period, with the largest decline occuring in Treasury bill-rates. In longer-term markets yields have also declined somewhat further except on municipals. Municipal yields which had declined in early October from the peak reached at the turn of the month, advanced again in late October and Most recently, however, some of this advance has been erased early November. as the market has come to believe that a settlement of the New York problem is in the offing. (5) Deposits at savings and loan associations and mutual savings banks grew during October at an annual rate of around 11 the same as in September. per cent, about Given the sharp declines in market rates, managers of thrift institutions reportedly have become more optimistic about the future course of deposit flows and therefore less cautious about extending new mortgage commitments. Interest rates on primary mortgages have dropped slightly; the Home Loan Bank series shows a decline in the average rate on new commitments for 80 per cent conventional mortgages from 9.25 to 9.17 per cent over the intermeeting period. In the secondary market, average yields in FNMA auctions dropped about 30 basis points. (6) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Calendar Year 1974 Twelve Months Oct. '75 over Past Six Months Oct. '75 over Past Three Months Oct. '75 ov er Past Month Oct.'75 over Oct. '74 Apr. '75 July '75 Sept.'75 8.5 -1.4 -2.2 -4.3 -2.1 10.7 3.5 -2.7 -3.0 5.2 8.9 -1.5 -1.9 -2.7 -2.6 4.8 4.4 5.7 0.7 -2.9 7.2 3.4 9.4 4.9 4.0 6.8 10.9 12.1 8.0 6.9 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 6.6 6.3 3.9 7.2 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.6 9.8 7.1 8.7 10.2 4.0 3.1 2.1 5.2 9.2 3.6 4.5 5.0 6.0 2.2 - .4 -1.2 .3 2.2 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ plus time deposits 1 at commercial banks other than large CD's) M2 (M M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's - Nonbank commercial paper .4 - .2 - .5 - .6 -1.1 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Summarized below for Committee consideration are three alternative sets of short-run specifications for monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. All three alternatives are intended to be consistent with the FOMC's longer-run objectives for the aggregates, as indexed by a 5-7½ per cent rate of growth in M1 from QIII '75 to QIII '76. Each of the alternatives, therefore,implies a different pattern of interest rate developments, as summarized in appendix table IV and as explained in the ensuing paragraphs. Alt. A Alt. C Alt. B Ranges of tolerance for November-December M1 7-9 6½-8½ 6-8 M2 8½-10½ 8-10 7½-9½ RPD 5½-7½ 5-7 4½-6½ 4¾-5¾ 5¼-6¼ Federal funds rate (8) 4¼-5 Under alternative B the Federal funds rate range is centered around the recently prevailing 5¼ per cent level. M is once again expected to begin growing at a reasonably rapid rate; under this alternative growth over the two-month November-December period is estimated to be in a 6½-8½ per cent annual rate range. The main basis for this expectation is the growing need for transactions balances associated with the 14½ per cent annual rate of expansion in nominal GNP projected by the staff for the fourth quarter M1 growth in Nov.-Dec. at an annual rate of 7½ per cent--the midpoint of the indicated range--would -5a- Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1l M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 October November December 294.0 296.7 297.8 294.0 296.7 297.6 294.0 296.7 297.4 658.5 664.8 668.7 658.5 664.7 668.4 658.5 664.6 668,1 1076.9 1087.2 1095,2 1076.9 1087.1 1094.7 1076.9 1086.9 1094.2 1975 QIII QIV 294.1 296.2 294.1 296.1 294.1 296.1 653.5 664.0 653.5 663.9 653.5 663.7 1063.6 1086.4 1063.6 1086.2 1063.6 1086.0 1976 QI QII QIII 302.2 307.7 312.4 301.7 307.3 312.4 301.4 037.2 312.4 677.8 690.6 702.0 677.0 689.9 702.2 676.1 690.1 704.0 1111.2 1133.1 1152.7 1109.9 1132.2 1153.6 1108.7 1132.2 1156.1 11.0 4.4 11.0 3.6 1.0 2.8 11.5 7.0 11.3 6.7 11.1 6.3 11.5 8.8 11.4 8.4 11.1 8.1 1975 QIV QI QII QIII 2.9 8.2 7.3 6.1 2.7 7.6 7.4 6.6 2.7 7.2 7.7 6.8 6.4 C.3 7,6 ., 6.4 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.2 7.5 8.3 8.1 8.6 9.1 7.9 6.9 8.5 8.7 8.0 7.6 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.4 QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76 5.5 6.8 5.2 7.1 5.0 7.3 7,4 7.1 7.2 7.4 6.9 8.3 9.0 7.5 8.7 7.9 8.5 8.6 QIII '75-QIII '76 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.4 8.5 8.7 Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 November December Quarterly Average: -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy IE Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 October November December 739.8 745.7 739.8 749.6 749.4 739.8 745.6 749,2 1158.1 1168.3 1176.1 1158.1 1168.1 1175.7 1158.1 1168.0 1175.3 508.0 511.7 512.9 508.0 511.6 512.8 508.0 511.6 512.7 1975 QIII QIV 733.2 745.0 733.2 733.2 744.9 1143.3 1167.5 1143.3 1167.3 1143.3 1167.1 504.7 510.9 504.7 745.0 510.8 504.7 510.8 1976 QI Q11 OII 759.2 773.3 787.0 758.6 773.1 787.6 758.0 772.9 788.2 1192.6 1237.7 1191.6 1215.4 1239.0 1190.6 1215.0 1240.3 517.2 523.4 528.5 516.9 523.3 529.0 516.6 523.1 529.0 9.6 6.3 9.6 6.0 10.6 8.0 10.4 7.8 1975 QIV 1976 QI QII QIII 6.4 7.6 7.4 7.1 6.4 7.3 7.6 7.5 6.4 7.0 QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIlI '76 7.1 7.3 QIII '75-QIII '76 7.3 <^m, 745.7 1215.8 Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 November December 8.7 2.8 8.5 2.8 8.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.8 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 3.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.5 6.9 7.6 6.8 8.0 8.4 8.0 8.3 8.3 5.0 4.4 7.4 7.5 8.4 8.5 4.7 10.3 2.6 Quarterly Averages: 7.9 8.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 result in expansion from QIII '75 to QIV '75 at a rate of about 2¾ per cent, implying a rise in income velocity at about an 11 per cent annual rate between those quarters. This would be an extremely large rise even for the early stages of an economic recovery, particularly if, as assumed, it is not associated with upward interest rate pressures during the quarter. (8) Such a large rise in velocity would not appear to be long sustainable at current interest rate levels, given the reduction in the public's cash balances relative to income that has already occurred and given the continued, even though somewhat diminished, rate of expansion projected for nominal GNP in 1976. With the demand for money likely to continue to rise, the staff would expect the Federal funds rate to increase in the course of next year if the rate of growth in M1 is to average near the mid-point of the FOMC's longer-run target range of 5-7 summer, the funds rate might peak out at around 7½½er cent. per cent. By This would be lower than had been projected by the staff at the time of the last meeting. (9) If the funds rate shows little change over the next few weeks, the 3-month bill rate might be in a 5 -6 per cent range. The rate could show some tendency to rise from its recent trading level of about 5.40 per cent because the increase in short-term credit typical of the holiday season will coincide with continued sizable net additions to outstanding bills by the Treasury to raise new cash. Short-term rates will also be heavily influenced by developments with respect to New York. A resolution of the problem would affect attitudes and expectations in a manner likely to put upward pressure on rates, whereas a dashing of hopes would have the opposite effect. -7- (10) With bond volume in the corporate and municipal markets expected to be generally moderate, longer-term market interest rates are likely to show little further net change between now and year-end under the specifications of alternative B. If the New York situation is resolved without default, yields in the municipal market could well show significant declines. Primary mortgage market yields are likely to edge down over the period ahead in lagged reaction to earlier declines in short-term interest rates and corporate bond yields, and in light of a continued relatively comfortable inflow of savings funds to thrift institutions. (11) Both banks and nonbank thrift institutions may experience more favorable net inflows of time and savings deposits over the next several weeks than they had in late summer and early fall, when market interest rates were higher. However, very recent experience suggests no more than a modest pick-up. Because upward pressures on interest rates in the fourth quarter of 1975 and now projected for 1976 are weaker than those antitipated earlier, consumer-type time deposit flows are no longer expected to slacken substantially in the near future. Accordingly, the date for an assumed upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates has been shifted forward, from year-end to mid-1976. (12) Alternative A contemplates a modest further decline in the Federal funds rate between now and the next Committee meeting, to the mid-point of a 4 -5 per cent range. This would tend to strengthen forces making for a rebound in growth of the monetary aggregates and would also -8be more accommodative of any increase in demands for liquidity should uncertainties with regard to municipal markets and banks continue. We would expect that such a reduction in the funds rate would have to be reversed at least by early next year in order to keep longer-run growth in M1 at around the mid-point of the 5-7½ per cent range, and that by Spring the funds rate would be around 7¾ per cent. (13) A reduction in the funds rate over the next few weeks of about the dimensions contemplated under alternative A would probably be accompanied by similar declines in other short-term rates and by some further decline in longer-term market rates. Mortgage market yields would also be likely to drop as the outlook for continued savings inflows brightens. But declines in mortgage yields, as well as in security rates, may be limited insofar as market participants view the easing in money market conditions Market attitudes will, of course, be influenced by the nature as temporary. of incoming economic news and by the degree of use, if any, of other monetary policy instruments. (14) Alternative C involves some rise in the Federal funds rate over the next few weeks, to the mid-point of a 5 -6 per cent range. Such a reversal in the recent trend of the funds rate would likely be accompanied by a sharp rebound in market rates; the 3-month bill rate, for example, might promptly move up to the 6-6½ per cent area. But if interest rates are pushed up over the next few weeks, it is likely that less of an increase would be required over the longer run than under alternatives A or B, since an early start will have been made in restraining money demand. It seems probable that the alternative C strategy might lead to a funds rate that peaks out at around 6¾ per cent next year. Thus, over the longer run this approach would place less pressure on banks and thrift institutions. In the short run, however, recent easing tendencies in bank and mortgage loans rates would be quickly reversed. (15) Among the assumptions made in developing the specifications presented in this blue book are: (a) no more than modest business loan growth at banks in view of (i) expected conservative inventory investment policies by business that would limit their demand for bank credit and (ii) continued relatively cautious bank lending policies; and (b) unwillingness of major banks to actively press CD's on the market in the period immediately ahead. In addition, it has been assumed that there will be no significant further impairment of confidence in the municipal market and banks. -10Proposed directive (16) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider its present 5 to 7 per cent target range for M1, with which all of the short-run operating alternatives discussed in the preceding sections are consistent. "Monetary Aggregate" proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Should the Committee desire to formulate the directive in (17) terms of bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Alternative "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. -11Alternative "Money Market" proposals Alternative A To implement this policy while taking account of develop- ments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES ABOVE THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED growth moderate with consistent [DEL: aggregates monetary in ahead]. months teh over Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of develop- ments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve] MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWIING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: monetary in growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT RATES BELOW THOSE CURRENTLY EXPECTED [DEL: growth moderate with consistent ahead]. months the over aggregates monetary in CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 11/14/75 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -38 Oct - Nov 36 - 33 32 NI A S 0 1975 H28 5 l lII M I I i J 1974 S D I I I M I J S D 1975 RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes ,n reserve requirement ratios N D CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASSII-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 11/14/75 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 280 7% growth for Oct - Nov I i I I I - I i I I I I I1 260 growth _ BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 I 1 8 /2 I growth for Oct - Nov 5 75) 711 620 5 ~c growth 600 ,J- 580 560 1974 1975 A S O 1975 N D CHART 3 11/14/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 520 500 480 460 I I I 0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 - 37 TOTAL 35 VNO NONBORROWED I j 33 A 31 V V iI I , I I 0 1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adlusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios 8/15/75 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS LY PER CENT PER CENT - 13 FEDERAL FUNDS FR DISCOUNT RATE L RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 7 4 Al. 1974 1975 1974 1975 1974 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (F R) CLASS II-FOMC 1 BANK RESERVES TABLE NUV. 14, 1975 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AGGREGATE RESERVES AVAILABLE RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE Ped FOR PRIVATE FOR PRIVATE Period MONTHLY NONBAN DEPOSITS NSA SA SA I NSA Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Total Required 3 4 5 Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 8 LEVELS-tMILLIONS 1975--AUG. SEPT OCT. NOV. PERCENT REQUIRED RESERVES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED - 32,409 32,425 32,355 (32,537) 32,164 32,242 32,257 (32,549) 34,208 34,320 34,259 (34,547) 96 33, 3?,923 34,069 (34,485) ?3,012 34,129 34,050 (34,286) 19:796 1l,870 19,626 (19,603) 12,21 12,365 12,519 (12,584) 1,894 1,964 ( 2,010) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARIErLY 1975--S1T QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD TPR. 0.6 -2.5 -8,4 1.2 -2.2 -1.3 -0.2 -1.4 -0.9 11.t -2.5 -1.1 -3.7 -0.8 - l.8 -4.7 -4.2 -7.8 1.2 -2.1 -4.2 -0.7 -3e6 -3.3 11.7 1.4 -3.4 -15.4 -8.7 QUARTEL Y-AV 1975--IS QOTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 6.0 5.7 -1.1 2.3 -17.0 -12.2 MONTHLY 1975--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV. WEEKLY ( 2.1) ( -14.6 3.9 -2.1 10.1 ) ( 4.0 -14.9 4.1 -2.8 -2.t -11.5 5.2 ( S 14.7) ( 8.3) 9.9) ( 2.81) -3.1 4.5 -14.6 ( 4.0) ( -?.3I -12.2 -5.4 14.9 ( 6.2) S10.61 LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1'75--OCTe NOV. NOTEI ( -6.1 0.6 -2.6 b68) 1 8 1" 22 29 32,744 5 12 33,070 32,096 32.088 32,502 32,052 32,519 32'911 31.h19 32.344 31.992 32.535 34,929 33,045 34,312 34,153 34,320 34,348 33,706 33,119 35.001 33,859 34,134 31.986 34,139 33,920 34,225 33.819 34 467 33,969 23,999 34,124 34,034 19,660 19,483 19, t71 34,130 33.830 19,t28 19.496 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONT1NUIT1ES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANCES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE LURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FUMC MEETING OF OCT. Zl, RANGE OF 0.0 TO t.0 PtECENT FOR THt OCT.-NOV. PERIOD. 19,879 19,655 12,40t 12,457 12,529 12,540 2,183 1,857 1,809 12,556 1,800 12,547 12.573 1,931 1.761 , 101 IN kESERVE REQUIREMENT RATI0. 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED UN A RPU Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F R.) CLASS II FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NOV. 14, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period Adjusted Credit U S Govt TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other (M1) (M2) Proxy Deposits Total Than CD's CD's 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 _39e4 3b1.d 364.5 (367.) e7oO 79.1 bl.3 ( BI.1) Nondeposit Sources of Funds 8 MONTHLY LFVtLS-SbILLIGNS 1975--AUG SEPT. OCT. NOV. 294.2 204.7 244.0 (296.7) 653.7 656.3 658.5 (664.71 %03.0 505.8 508.0 (11.7) ( 2.9 3.1 2.9 6.) 437*4 440.7 445.8 1449.01 ( 7.0 7.0 7.r 7.4) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1 75--15T QTR. 2Nt, QTR. 3RODQ4. 0.8 7.b 13.4 6.3 3.1 7.5 -1.3 10.1 t.7 3..- )3.4 9.7 -2.2 -25.4 -23.8 0.9 5.8 11.2 10.4 4.1 5.2 1.4 12.7 4.2 4.9 11.0 13.3 13.2 19.2 -24.0 -29.3 2.4 2.0 -2.9 11.0) ( 5.9 4.8 4.0 11.) ( -5.5 6.7 5.2 8.71 ( -4. 9.1 13.9 B,6) ( 8.1 7.7 9.. 11.Z) -59.9 16.9 33.4 ( -3.0) 4 4.1) I ( 7.0) ( 11.3) ( 10.3) ( 11.o 2.3 0'.3 OUARTERLY-AV 1975--IST QTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR. -0.3 8.6 MONTHLY 1975--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV. 7,7) 15.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-SILLIONS 1 75--OCT. NOV. 1 6 15 22 29 293.7 293v4 294.7 294.3 5 P £92.5 655.8 656.3 650.1 650.0 658.0 505.3 506.9 507.9 '08.7 507.2 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 e3 443.0 445 445.8 445.7 446.7 362.1 362.' 364.4 364.6 365.5 60.9 81.6 81.4 81.0 8P13 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.4 7.9 295.7 61 9 10.2 3.0 447.23 3(.2 81.1 8.0 I NCTE: DATA SHOWN I IN PARtN1HESES ARE CURRENT I PROJECTIONS. I P - PRELIMINARY 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) I- I S ills A Period_ ccep . (1) 1975--Apr. May June 1,319 197 -413 3 I,., TIo a l .~ ~1 Daily Average Reserve Effects 21 .- upen f On« ~. r narKetc r.. - * a V MemDer ., r,I,, n rn A _ 7,829 -3,207 -1,317 2,229 5,064 -3,165 4 -50 211 -1,767 54 -5,747 3,438 1 -96 -2 313 393 -623 1,007 2,008 -2,926 -832 -1,332 2,458 -10 -50 186 553 1,210 -2,432 -124 284 435 -240 -932 394 22 29 501 690 -1 -85 -910 I ____-.~I 98 7 -70p p 2,384 -4,057 -29 8,306 747 -1,857 678 3,399 -638 1,263 -166 -3,402 17 25 1 143 42 -456 -263 1,767 2,798 -2,763 -1,935 935 2,418 -2,157 1,922 2,462 -1,112 -2,156p 61 -86 -65 236 -422p 766 -1,098 527p -353p 546p -7,612 5,204 407 -4,580 3,465p 616 U 453 -78 132p -1,047p 82p 95 - p LI Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period: includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, FR. float, gold and foreign accounts, Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for October and November reflects the target adopted Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were P - Preliminary. 265 278 -165p £ V 495 -325 -45 10 2,225 -3,833 -794 6,512 4,028 ava.-auscS II rocerva (11) -456 -48 114 167 -1,135p a Target 580 1,276 -6,047 -20 p Iri- -170 215 445 -7,526 6,114 4 4 412 -734 15 -1,092 -5,806 1,548 3,527 793 284 1,222 5,155 orrow ng (7) . In Reserve Categories Keq. res. against avatsauLS LM.-qi urner 4/ T4tUh (L-)+7(i-E's-(9~ .A VFt "1 C 0 actors 11 . . . r . 6 (10) (8) (9) 5,442 -3,357 -1,855 (6) an -11 -2 -97 -6 (5) I perat ons .. l - 1,070 50 958 1 8 15 ________ r II I ssues I I (3) 24 5 12 19 26 KrNTi* et (4) ssues t. (2) -1 -1 17 -_________ I Agency tI... -113 -223 309 1,427 10 Nov. coupon 147 Oct. Nov. De. Oct. Open- Marketi-'--i--rOperations 11 -2,302 -371 1,932 July Aug. Sept, 1975--Sept. l. . auctions. and other F.R. accounts. at the October 21, 1975 FOMC meeting. adopted during the month. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period 1972 1973 1974 1974--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 1975--Qtr. I Within 1-year Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1- 5 5 - 10 10 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Total Within 1-year 1- 5 5 - 10 789 579 797 539 500 434 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 168 101 318 1.059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 945 -43 49 102 118 215 62 131 73 45 302 492 195 138 726 371 165 130 117 53 1,203 691 2,620 1,402 285 61 584 508 53 -2 -- -2 3,076 230 63 747 1,060 2,392 33 1,054 625 312 2,024 69 169 1,086 218 1,135 454 273 2,079 - -- Qtr. III -757 13 712 201 171 1,096 64 514 106 - 143 50 - -- -- June -352 20 650 180 109 July -2,305 1975--Sept. Oct. Nov. 50 - -- 958 - - - - -1,358 -46 -154 -986 -238 - - 150 -3,357 -- -- 539 -1,855 - -- -- - - -- - -2,304 -623 13 - 150 562 64 137 47 124 274 822 41 23 229 285 49 57 34 29 353 394 216 3,148 1,007 2,008 97 - - -- - -- 58 141 71 14 284 430 15 -369 1,917 Oct. RP's Net 6/ 87 207 320 -2,093 Aug. Sept. Total -490 7,232 1,280 Qtr. II 1975--May Over 10 Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ - - 3 -116 13 150 64 47 273 - -- -- - -- 159 2,225 10 17 -200 309 -- -314 -91 -51 456 -- &#45;&#45;&#45; -- -- - -223 765 -3,833 -794 24 1,396 -- 248 46 73 367 -- -- - -- - 1,794 6,512 1 413 - -- -- - -- 23 285 57 29 8 15 22 -239 -926 479 - - ---- -- &#45;&#45;&#45; ---- &#45;&#45;&#45; &#45;&#45;&#45; - 29 671 - - - -- 58 5 192 -93 - -- -- - - - - 141 71 &#45;&#45;&#45; 394 - 14 - - 284 829 -1,092 -240 -932 502 -5,806 1,548 3,527 974 793 - -85 -7,526 - -910 6,114 26 i Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreigh accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Member Bank Reserve Positions Dealer Positions Dealer Positions Corporate Period Bills Coupon Issues (1) (2) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 1975--High Low 7,029 1.586 1 7 --Oct. Nov. Dec. Bonds (3) Municipal Bonds Borrowing at FRB** Reserves (4) (5) 253 0 384 27 577 -168 2,845 253 464 0 389 48 462 -50 2,174 2,900 2,985 654 1,608 1,836 25 83 175 166 268 149 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2.501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 Apr. May June 2,737 4,744 5,201 1,617 1,752 1,351 July Aug. Sept. 4,231 4,020 5,008 Oct. 9 Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others (6) (7) 3,906 647 176 13 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 - 6,046 871 18 74 5 -7,387 -1,757 -11,390 - 7,207 197 205 258 1,813 1,252 727 117 67 32 -4,602 -6,322 -5,960 - 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169 79 166 195 147 198 195 398 147 96 14 11 7 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302 35 91 89 115 170 118 143 155 201 110 66 227 6 9 11 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 - 9,567 - 9,344 1,246 1,204 588 60 44 31 135 181 122 188 195 191 259 211 397 17 37 58 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 - 9,966 - 9,015 5,766 1,480 14 123 2 188p 65p -2,644 - 9,202 3 10 17 24 4,294 5,070 5,384 4,779 1,103 894 253 477 1 33 30 58 183 84 113 107 301 -6 267 31 222 385 327 395 51 54 61 64 -2,745 -4,884 -3,932 -3,190 - 9,391 -10,478 -10,094 - 8,393 Oct. 1 8 15 22 29 4,657 5,812 7,029 *6,037 *5,085 462 846 1,576 *1,835 *1,456 5 0 17 10 25 142 154 86 110 122 462 -24 313 29p 286p 581 238 173 22 3p 95p 74 74 66 63p 61p -2,575 -2,663 -3,475 -2,236 -2,206 - 7,207 - 9,923 -10,042 - 9,398 - 7,661 Nov. 5 12 *4,928 *4,050 *2,751 *2,585 48 69p 194 11Op 8 67p 4 0p 43p 27p - ,821p -5,092p 4 1975--Sept. 19 07p 03p 23p , (8) 2 (9) - 8,819p -11,372p 26 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 14, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Short-Term Treasury Bills Federal Funds Period 90-day 1-year 90-119 Day Commercial PaRer Long-Term CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day 90-119 Day Aaa Utility New Issue Municipal Recently Offered Bond Buyer (9) U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturity) A Auctions Yields (11) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 9.63 6.53 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 7.15 5.16 8.68 7.40 10.59 8.43 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 10.06 9.45 8,53 7.46 7.47 9.35 8.78 9.00 9.33 8.72 8.84 10.16 9.21 9.53 10.23 9.34 9.56 6.57 6.61 7.05 8.37 7.99 7.15 9.55 8.95 9.18 7.91 10.22 9.87 9.53 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 9.38 6.82 6.39 6.74 7.88 7.71 7.99 9.25 8.93 8.82 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 5.55 5.61 5,23 5.34 6.11 5.70 5.67 5.85 5.44 5.34 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.20 9.66 9.65 9.33 6.94 6.97 6.94 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.06 9.27 9.09 July 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.32 Aug. Sept. 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.42 9.45 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 Oct. 5.82 5.96 6.35 6.08 6.45 9.45 9.43 7.39 8.35 9.80 6.06 6.15 6.28 6.29 6.40 6.39 6.48 6.36 6.69 6.75 6.80 6.83 6.38 6.38 6.50 6.50 6.75 9.41 9.50 9.61 9.70 7.34 7.40 7.49 7.54 8.47 9.64 9.68 9.70 6.36 6.06 5.82 5.73 5.65 6.47 6.32 6.13 5.83 5.66 6.80 6.50 7,00 6.83 6.53 6.23 5.93 6.38 6.13 5.75 5.63 6.75 6.38 6.00 6.13 9.72 9.60 9.53 9.32 9.22 9.70 9.56 9.41 9.30 9.33 7.67 7.48 7.29 7.17 7.36 8.59 8.43 8.34 8.26 5.17 5.52 5.39 5.88 5.81 5.88 5.24 5.63 6.13 6.00 9.10 9.08p 9.24 9. 2 0 p 7.52 7.43 8.19 8.19p 5.31 5.22p 5.51 5.37 (L) (2) 1974--High Low 13.55 8,45 1975--High Low 1974--Oct. Nov. Dec. 1975--Sept. 3 10 17 24 Oct. 1 8 15 22 29 Nov. 5 12 19 26 Daily--Nov. 6 13 5.90 5.97 5.88 5.75 6.88 6.88 6.75 (10) 8.61 8.63 8.52 8.22 8.19 n.a, Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10, the Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. p - Preliminary NOTE: APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Y RESERVES Period T ota l MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES Available to Support pvt Deposits Non N borrowed Total Loans and Invest. ments Adl Credit proxy Mi M2 M3 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974 10.8 7.9 8.5 7.4 7.3 10.7 10.1 9.2 NOV. 14, 1975 M M5 M6 9 10 11 M7 9.2 8.7 6.1 4.8 11.1 8.8 7.Z 13.2 8.8 6.8 12.5 11.6 10.6 14.0 10.6 9.0 12.9 11.2 9.1 12 .9 11.9 8 9 14.6 8e9 11.3 10.4 10.2 13.5 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF ZND HALF 1974 1974 10.9 5.9 0.3 21.1 12.6 14.5 5.0 5.4 15.0 3.1 6.3 3.1 8.7 5.5 7.9 5.4 13.3 7.5 10.9 6.7 11.0 6.9 11 .0 6 .5 1ST 1975 -3.6 -0.7 -2.1 5.3 5.1 6.0 10.6 13.0 7.5 10.7 10.1 9.9 0.9 4.2 -1.0 5.3 6.7 6.9 9.0 8.4 8 .1 6.5 -4.7 0.6 -2.5 3.1 7.5 -1.3 5.7 4.6 3.6 0.8 11.2 2.3 7.6 13.4 6.3 9.9 15.7 9.7 6.3 8.6 2.9 8.8 12.3 7.2 7.9 12.0 6.9 7.6 11 .9 6.6 2.6 3.5 0.2 3.9 6.2 7.3 66 6.8 6.2 1.0 5.1 -0.3 8.6 6.9 5.8 11.2 10.4 7.8 13.8 13.1 7.4 6.6 5.6 8.6 10.6 9.9 8.0 7.0 9.9 9.2 3.8 8.5 3.4 8.4 7.9 3.7 7l1 7.7 5.9 9.8 5.7 11.4 8.0 6.2 10.8 8.8 5.8 9.4 8.5 2.5 8.4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 5.9 4.8 4.0 5.6 9.9 13.9 11 .7 14.9 19.6 12.2 9.4 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.5 6.1 7.2 7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 4.4 8.0 8.7 8.2 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.3 9.2 3.7 7.9 8.5 7.5 6.9 8.5 HALF OUARTERLY: 4TH OTR. 1974 3.6 IST OTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 1975 1975 1975 -8.4 1.2 -2.2 36.4 -1.3 -0.2 -4.2 QUARTERLY-AV: 47H OTR* 1974 1ST OTR. 2ND OTR* 3RD OTR. 1975 1975 1975 1.4 27.5 11.6 -2.8 -2.8 -1.4 4.1 -3.7 -0.8 -2.5 -1.1 5.2 1.4 -3.0 -1.4 15.4 52.5 19.0 34.8 -1.3 -2.5 6.6 -0.2 5.2 7.6 0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.1 0.6 -2.6 3.6 -0.2 -0.9 4.1 5.8 9.9 9.5 MONTHLY: 1974-OCT. NOV. DEC. 7.9 -27.3 -5.6 8.2 -14.7' 10.3 4.1 -14.6 3.9 -2.1 1975--JAN. FEE. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P a NOTFS: 19.5 -19.0 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.7 1.5 -11.5 -2.6 5.2 I 1.4 5.0 -9.4 4.7 4.3 5.8 7.9 5.1 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 2.4 15.1 -5.2 -5.5 6.7 5.2 S 6.0 U -11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 2.9 2.0 -2.9 ______________ RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY. ______________ 16, 1969. AND REQUIREMENTS - 3.6 7.3 9.5 9.8 15.9 8.8 3.4 7.5 8.1 - ON BANK-RELATED APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES NOV. 14, 1975 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RE RESERVES BANK CREDIT MEASURES MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Nonboro borrowed Available to uprt pits Deposits Ad! Credit proxy Tots Loans and Invests ments M 1 2 3 4 5 6 30,016 32,377 28.966 31,078 27,734 30,272 406.4 448.7 559.0 634.6 255.8 271.5 34,734 34.693 35,138 32,921 33.441 34,411 32,863 32,795 32,975 488.3 491.2 494.3 696.0 697.4 691.9 281.6 1975--JANe FEB. MAR. 35,368 34,564 34,404 34.970 34,417 34,298 32,974 32,739 32,588 495.8 495.7 498.1 APR. MAY JUNE 34,640 34,216 34,510 34,530 34,150 34.283 32668 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,628 34.208 34,320 Period M2 M3 M4 M M M7 8 9 10 11 12 525.7 572.2 844.9 919.6 569.7 636.0 888.8 983.4 985.5 1095.4 1013.1 1133.6 283.6 284.4 607.6 611.6 613.5 970.7 976.9 981.7 693.8 697.1 703.7 1056.9 1062.4 1072.0 1180.1 1185.8 1195.1 1223.5 1227 .2 1234.7 694.6 697.1 701.7 281.6 282.4 285.0 614.8 619.1 625.1 986.3 994.4 1005.9 707.6 711.2 714.8 1079.1 1086.5 1095.7 1203.3 1210.3 1218.6 1242.4 1249.5 1268.3 32,633 500.2 501.2 507.5 703.7 706.7 709.7 285.8 288.5 293.0 628.9 635.9 646.1 1015.7 1028.3 1045.3 717.3 721.5 730.1 1104.1 1113.9 1129.4 1228.3 1238.5 1255.3 1268.3 1278.7 1295.6 34.326 339996 33,923 329575 32,409 32,425 505.3 503.0 505.8 710.9 714.9 716.1 293.5 294.2 294.7 650.5 653.7 656.3 1055.9 1064.2 1070.7 732.6 731.7 735.4 1138.0 1142.2 1149. 1Z64.9 1268.8 1277.1 1305 1 1308.8 1317.0 34,259 34.069 32,355 508.0 719.7 294.0 658.5 1076.9 739.8 1158.1 1286.1 1325.9 33,935 34.258 34,279 33.550 33,931 33,884 32,241 32,473 32,265 506.4 506.2 505.3 295.5 295.4 293.5 656,5 656.8 654.8 734.6 735.5 734.5 1 34,929 8 15 33,945 32,744 32,088 32,502 32,052 32,519 505.3 506.9 507.9 508.7 507.2 293.7 293.4 294.7 294.3 292.5 655.8 656.3 659.1 659.0 658.0 736.7 737.9 740.5 740.0 739.3 33.070 510.2 295.7 661.9 743.0 ANNUALLY! 1972 1973 MONTHLY: 1974--0CT, NOV. DEC. OCT. | P 32,388 WEEKLY: 1975--SEPT.1O 17 24 OCT. NOV. 34,312 34,153 34,320 5P 35,001 34.934 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3. MS. M6, MT, TOTAL LOANS AND rNVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY NOTES! 1/ P - 22P 29P 34,348 339706 34.139 33*920 34,225 NOV. 14, APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES U-- &#45;&#45;&#45; ---- Demand Deposits Period Total Tiot Deposits 1 2 3 ANNUALLY: Time Mutua l The Savings Credt CDs Union Bank Other Tan an CD's CD'S and $ & L Shares I I SharesY 1s] 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Saings Bonds j Short Commercal Term U S Gov't Paper Securities 9 10 I 15.7 16.2 15.0 13.5 10.2 8.9 5.5 3.1 11.4 9.4 16.7 8.5 5.6 5.2 1.0 18.6 10.5 10.9 7.6 5.9 5.1 1972 1973 8.2 8.3 1974 18.0 13.9 11.8 31.0 45.3 41.5 0.5 30.9 15.7 15.0 38.8 3.4 13.0 9.9 54.9 22.1 19.2 11.2 12.5 -5.4 3.0 3.5 SEMI-ANNUALLY 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1974 1974 9.7 10.2 1ST HALF 1975 9.4 5.0 8.5 14.6 16.3 22.5 12.1 3.2 11.6 7.9 6.9 12.0 -13.7 QUARTERLY: 4TH QTKe 1974 IST QTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR. 1975 1975 1975 8.8 9.8 5.1 1.4 10.1 6.7 3.3 13.4 15.3 9.7 8.2 -1.7 11.7 13.1 18.9 20.4 23.5 25.9 4.0 -34.2 -2.2 -7.3 13.5 2.0 -4.0 1.0 6.0 11.8 -25.4 -23.8 4.9 10.6 15.2 10.8 -9.4 11.0 13.3 13.2 10.8 17.6 17.6 17.6 22.5 17.3 19.2 -24.0 -29.3 -3.3 2.0 6.6 -20.2 8.1 -2.0 11.9 7.7 4.0 4.3 7.1 9.2 9.0 13.4 13.2 19.8 -9.7 67.4 24.1 -2.0 -9.9 2.8 -55.3 -52.2 14.9 12.6 12.1 10.6 15.0 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.3 9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3 11.6 17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 15.7 19.4 0.0 11 .4 31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9 33.4 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 5.9 5.9 -15.2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 QUARTERLY-AVi 4TH QTR. 1974 11.6 1.7 9.7 1ST OTR. 2ND OT. 3RD QTR. 1975 1975 1975 8.9 8.7 8.5 -3.3 12.7 8.6 6.6 5.2 4.9 2.2 5.6 1.7 13.5 4.1 MONTHLY: 1974--OCT. MOV. DEC. 10.9 16.2 8.9 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P 5.3 8.8 12.2 1.7 12.1 8.4 1*7 10.0 16.8 19.2 7.9 3.1 4.5 3.9 11.6 5.5 -4.6 9.1 13.9 0.0 . I 1 J . I r I I J RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER I, 1970, 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. ____________ NOTES: 15.4 T.1 -17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11.1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.2 -7.0 NOV. 14, 1975 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Per Curren 1 emand Totl DepositsDepos 2 3 Tme Other Than MutualnSavng ak and & L CD_ _ 4 Shares i 5 US C U sTime Sangs Shares Bonds Uic m S. t Commerca Cnm Ndeposit U Gov't Paper Funds Demand 11 12 Secuit 6 7 8 9 10 ANNUALLY: 56.9 61.6 198.9 209.9 313.8 364.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.8 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.6 38.3 4.3 6.6 5.6 3.9 1974--OCT. NOV. DEC. 66.5 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.2 216.5 412.1 413.5 419.3 325.9 328.0 329.1 336.2 338.2 340.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.6 62.8 60.9 60.8 60.3 43.4 41.4 39.6 7.9 7.6 8.4 3.7 4.6 1.9 1975--JAN. FEBE MAR. 68.2 68.7 6904 213.4 213.7 215.6 426.0 428.8 429.9 333.2 336.7 340.1 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39.7 7.6 6.5 6.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.2 71.1 216.3 218.3 221.9 431.5 432.9 437.1 343.1 353.1 357.4 362.5 368.6 29.4 29.9 30.6 88.4 85.5 84.1 64.1 64.4 64.7 60.2 60.2 61.2 40.0 40.2 40.3 6.7 7 4 7.0 2.1 2.1 3.8 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.4 71.9 72.0 222.1 222.4 222.7 439.1 437.4 440.7 357.0 359.4 361.7 374,4 379.0 382.9 31.0 31.5 31.5 82.1 78.0 79.1 65.1 65.4 65.8 61.8 61.2 61.5 40.2 40.0 39.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 2.5 2.9 3.1 72.6 221.4 445.8 364.5 386.6 31.8 81.3 66.2 61.8 39.9 7.9 2.9 71.0 72.1 72.1 223.6 223.4 221.4 439.1 440.0 441.0 361.0 361.3 361.3 78.1 78.7 79.7 1.0 7.0 7.0 4.2 4.0 d.9 1 8 15 22P 29P 72.0 72.5 72.6 72.5 72.7 221.7 221.0 222.1 221.9 219.9 443.0 444.5 445.8 445.7 446.7 362.1 362.9 364.4 364.6 365.5 80.9 81.6 81.4 81.0 81.3 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.4 7.9 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 2.3 5P 7-.8 222.9 447.3 366.2 81.1 8.0 3.0 1972 1973 MONTHLY OCT. P 947.4 WEEKLY: 1975--SEPT.10 17 24 OCT. NOV. NOTES: I/ ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER SANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVe REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY OATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITIUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND EN OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M M3 M2 M1 Q M q 9.1 8.8 10.4 8.6 10.5 9.1 7.8 5.2 7.5 8.9 9.8 7.9 M Q 7.3 I 3.4 6.8 II 11.3 7.3 0.6 5.5 8.7 5.0 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.1 6.3 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.0 1974 5.5 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 1.0 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 5.3 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 4.8 5.2 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 0.8 -0.3 7.6 5.8 9.9 7.8 1973 III IV II1 III IV QIV '73-QIV 1975 '74 11.2 8.6 2.3 6.9 10.6 5.6 10.8 13.4 6.3 11.2 10.4 15.7 9.7 13.8 13.1 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 QIV 5¼ 5½ 5¾ 1976 QI 6¼ 6½ 6½ QII 7¾ 7¼ 6¾ QIII 7¾ 7½ 6¾ 

Federal Reserve (1975, November 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751118

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19751118,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751118},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}