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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC October 17, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC October 17, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 grew at about a 2 per cent annual rate in September, and further weakness in recent data now suggest some net contraction for October. As a result M1 is projected to decline slightly on average over the two-month target period--falling substantially below the lower end of the Committee's range of tolerance, as shown in the table. The weakness in M1 and a further slowing of growth in consumer-type time deposits in September have reduced the expected two-month growth rate for M2 to a 4.3 per cent annual rate, also well below its range of tolerance. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over September-October Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Ranges of Tolerance Latest Estimates MI 5 to 8 -0.4 M2 7 to 9k 4.3 RPD Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) -2.1 1 to 4 Avg. for statement 53 to 7- week ending Sept. 17 6.28 24 1 8 15 6.29 6.36 6.06 5.82 Oct. 1/ A majority of the Committee members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of October 2 to reduce the lower end of the funds rate range from 6 to 5¾ per cent. -2(2) Business loans at banks and commercial paper issued by nonfinancial corporations both declined in September, as high corporate liquidity reduced the need for external financing. Even so, the outstanding volume of large negotiable bank CD's expanded appreciably for the first time since January. This unexpected CD growth was concentrated among a few money center banks and seems to have represented an effort to improve their liquidity positions in preparation for possible adverse market reactions stemming from the continuing financial problems of New York and recent publicity highlighting loan losses at banks. As a result of the CD expansion, and of a larger than projected rise in Government deposits, the bank credit proxy appears to be expanding at about a 5 per cent annual rate in the September-October period. (3) In the initial statement week after the September FOMC meeting, the Desk sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate trading in a 6¼-6½ per cent range. On October 2, incoming data suggested that growth in the monetary aggregates was running below the Committee's ranges of tolerance, and conditions in the municipal market were becoming increasingly unsettled. Accordingly, the Chairman recommended and the Committee concurred in a strategy calling for the Manager to lower the Federal funds rate to 6-1/8 per cent immediately, and then to reduce it further over the following few days to 6 per cent. The Committee also agreed to reduce the lower limit of its funds rate constraint to 5¾ per cent, in order to provide leeway for further reserve provision in the event that signs of continuing weakness in the monetary aggregates were confirmed by additional data. In the statement week ending October 8, the funds rate averaged -36.06 per cent. Since then--with additional data confirming weakness in the aggregates--the rate has averaged around 5.80 per cent. On October 15, the Board of Governors announced a cut in reserve requirements on longermaturity time deposits--which had the effect of releasing about $350 million of reserves to banks in the week beginning October 30. (4) early October Short-term interest rates have declined significantly since in response to the evidence of weaker growth in the monetary aggregates, the decline in the Federal funds rate, and the cut in bank reserve requirements. As a result, most short-term rates are now 40 to 70 basis points below the levels that prevailed at the time of the September FOMC meeting. The 3-month Treasury bill has traded most recently at around 5.90 per cent, its lowest level since late June. (5) Recent declines in short rates have contributed to a general strengthening of markets for longer-term securities as well. Yield reductions have been largest on Treasury notes and bonds--ranging to as much as 50 basis points. In the municipal market, developments surrounding the New York financial crisis have continued to dominate. The atmosphere has improved somewhat in response to the general easing in market conditions. On October 17, New York City managed to roll over its debt maturities, but there is still no demand for such issues from the general public. (6) Combined deposit growth at savings and loan associations and mutual savings banks slowed to an annual rate of 11½ per cent during September. At S&L's the slower deposit flows, taken in conjunction with the large volume of new mortgage commitments made during August, reportedly -4led to more cautious lending policies in September. This is suggested by recent data which show no further increase in commitments for September and an increase of 10-15 basis points in the average interest rate on conventional mortgages over the past five weeks. (7) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected periods. monetary and financial flows over various time Calendar Year 1974 Twelve -_Months Sept.'75 over Past Six Months Sept.'75 over Past Three Months Sept.'75 over Past Month Sept.'75 over Sept.'74 Mar. '75 June '75 Aug, '75 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves 8.5 -1.4 -0.5 -2.2 4.0 10.7 7.5 -2.1 -4.1 -2.4 8.9 -1.5 -1.0 -2.5 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 0.7 Concepts of Money M (currency plus demand deposits) I/ 4.8 5.0 6.8 2.3 2.0 7.2 8.8 10.0 6.4 5.0 6.8 11.0 12.9 9.8 7.4 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 6.9 5.8 3.0 6.2 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.5 9.9 7.3 8.1 (bank credit proxy adj,) 10.2 3.4 3.1 -1.3 6.9 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 9.2 2.6 3.6 4.8 2.2 2.2 -.5 -1.8 -1.7 1.1 -. 3 -. 1 -1.0 M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial aper .4 -- 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. Based on month-end figures. 2/ of daily figures, except for data on total on averages based are NOTE: All items institucommercial paper, and thrift banks, of commercial loans and investments last Wednesday-of-month or end-of-month either tions--which are derived from figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (8) Shown below for Committee consideration are alternative The one-year longer-run growth ranges in the monetary aggregates. span has been moved forward one quarter to cover the period from the third quarter of 1975 to the third quarter of 1976. The FOMC's current longer-run growth ranges for the period between the second quarters of 1/ 1975 and 1976 are also shown for comparative purposes. 1/ Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M 6-84 5-7h 4-64 5-74 M2 6-10 6-8 4t-64 8%-10k M3 8-10 6k-84 5-7 10-12 4-7 2t-51 64-94 Bank credit proxy (9) 5-8 Current Of the longer-run alternatives, B encompasses the same growth range as adopted in June for Ml. Growth rates for M2 and M3 are lower, however, because slower growth in time and savings deposits is now anticipated, given recent experience and the expectation that market interest rates will again be under upward pressure late this year and early next year. 1/ Since M 1 grew at a 6.9 per cent annual rate from the second to third quarters of 1975, the new proposed long-run rates of growth are calculated from a base level that incorporates a rate of expansion slightly above the mid-point of the Committee's current longer-run range. While achievement of a 6¼ per cent growth rate over the next four quarters would not include any adjustment for the higher rate of expansion in the third quarter, the problem in this instance would not appear to be of any real quantitative significance. For example, under alternative B the implied growth rate from QII '75 to QII '76 for M (the Committee's previous target period) would be no more than about 6.4 per cent--well within the Committee's range. -7(10) Shorter-run alternatives for monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate are summarized below Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges of tolerance for October-November M1 3h to 5h 3 to 5 2 to 4 M2 6 to 8 5 to 7 45 to 6 RPD 1h to 3 0 to 2 5 to 6 5% to 6k Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) -1 to 5% to 63 These alternatives can be viewed as first stages that are loosely related to attainment of the corresponding longer-run growth paths. Appendix Table IV shows quarterly average Federal funds rates that the staff currently believes likely to evolve over the next four quarters in attaining longer-run monetary objectives. In general, all the alternatives involve rising Federal funds rates as the period progresses, given the continued expansion projected for GNP. (11) The staff still believes that growth in M 1 will soon resume. We are now projecting growth over the latter part of October and continuing through winter, in view of the strong further expansion in nominal GNP, and hence in transactions needs for money, forecast by the staff. Since the early October level of M1 is so low, however, this growth would not be reflected in the monthly averages until November. Given current money market conditions, as under alternative B, the staff expects M 1 to expand at more than a 10 per cent annual rate in November. But since the level of M1 is expected to decline, -7aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 294.7 293.9 296.1 656,4 658.6 664.8 656,4 656.4 658,4 663.4 658.2 662.3 1070.8 1076.4 1085.0 1070.8 1076.0 1082.8 1070.8 1075.5 1080.9 1975 September October November 294.7 294.1 296.9 294.7 294.0 296.6 1975 QIII 294.1 296.8 294.1 296.4 294.1 296.0 653.5 664.6 653.5 663.4 653.5 662.2 1063.6 1084.9 1063.6 1082.8 1063.6 1080.8 303.5 302.2 307.5 312.2 300.9 680,0 695.5 710.7 676.6 688.8 700.1 673.1 682.7 690.1 1110.1 1135.2 1159.3 1103.1 1124.0 1142.6 1097.3 1112.9 1125.0 QIv 1976 QI QII QIII 310.1 316.1 305.3 308.5 Growth Rates Monthly: 1975 October November -2.4 11.4 -2.9 10.6 -3.3 9.0 4.0 11.3 3.7 9.1 3.3 7.5 6.3 9.6 5.8 7.6 5.5 5.8 7.2 7.7 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.7 4.3 Quarterly Average: 3.7 9.0 8.7 7.7 3.1 7.8 7.0 6.1 2.6 6.6 5.8 4.2 6.8 9.3 9.1 8.7 6.1 8,0 7.2 6.6 5.3 6.6 5.7 4.3 8.0 9.3 9.0 8.5 QIII '75-QI '76 QI '76-QIII '76 6.4 8.3 5.5 6.6 4.6 5.1 8.1 9.0 7.1 6.9 6.0 5.1 8.7 8.9 QIII '75-QIII '76 7,5 6.2 4.9 8.8 7.1 5,6 9.0 1975 QIV 1976 QI QII QIII 6.3 5.0 7,4 5.8 -7b- Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M4 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 735.5 740.6 735.5 740.3 735.5 740.2 1149.9 1158.3 1149.9 1157.9 1149.9 1157.6 505.9 507.8 505.9 507.6 505.9 507.6 746.8 745.5 744.6 1166.9 1164.8 1163.1 511.7 510.8 510.3 1975 QIII QIV 733.3 746.7 733.3 745.6 733.3 744.6 1143.4 1166.9 1143.4 1165.0 1143.4 1163.1 504.7 511.2 504.7 510.5 504.7 509.9 1976 QI 763.6 760.7 757.5 1193.7 1187.8 1181.7 521.8 519.9 517.8 780.6 797.3 774.8 788.3 769.3 779.5 1220.4 1245.9 1210.1 1230.8 1199.6 1214.4 529.5 537.1 525.9 531.5 522.3 525.9 1975 September October November QII QIII Growth Rates Monthly: 8.3 7.8 7.7 8.8 8.3 8.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 10.0 8.4 7.1 8.9 7.2 5.7 9.2 7.6 6.4 1975 QIV 1976 QI QII QIII 7.3 9.1 8.9 8.6 6.7 8.1 7.4 7.0 6.2 6.9 6.2 5.3 8.2 9.2 8.9 8.4 7.6 7.8 7.5 6.8 6.9 6.4 6.1 4.9 5.2 8.3 5.9 5.7 4.6 7.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 6.2 3.5 2.8 QIII '75-QI '76 8.3 7.5 6.6 8.8 7.8 6.7 6.8 6.0 5.2 QI '76-QIII '76 8.8 7.3 5.8 8.7 7.2 5.5 5.9 4.5 3.1 QIII '75-QIII '76 8.7 7.5 6.3 9.0 7.6 6.2 6.4 5,3 4.2 1975 October November Quarterly Averages: -8on average, in October, the two month October-November growth rate would be relatively low--in a 3-5 per cent annual rate range under alternative B. (12) Alternative B involves a Federal funds rate range centered around the recently prevailing 5¾ per cent rate. Yields in short- and long-term markets (other than the mortgage market) have declined recently in response to the easing of the money market, and little further decline is likely in the period immediately ahead, assuming the funds rate remains around 5¾ per cent. The 3-month bill is likely to trade around 6 per cent and 3-month commercial paper may be around 6-3/8 per cent. Bond yields could decline somewhat further if there should be a breakthrough in resolving New York's financing problem or if the volume of corporate bond offerings drops further. However, the Treasury will announce its mid-November refunding on October 22. While the refunding is a small one--involving only about $2.4 billion of maturing publicly-held issues--the Treasury may offer mainly longer-term issues in the financing and is expected to raise a modest amount of new cash at the same time. (13) Given at least maintenance of the recent lower level of market rates, time deposit experience at banks and thrift institutions should improve somewhat as compared with the recent past. However, over the longer-run, with upward interest rate pressures still anticipated, the staff believes that institutional savings flows will come under renewed pressure, and we have assumed an increase in Regulation Q ceilings in the first quarter of next year. -9(14) A slight easing of the money market, as is contemplated by the mid-point of the 5-6 per cent Federal funds rate range shown for alternative A, might be accompanied by some further declines in market interest rates. These declines probably would not be particularly large since many market participants may still expect rates to turn around later. Such an expectation would be reinforced to the extent that incoming business news continues to be good. A larger decline in the funds rate to around the 5 per cent bottom of the alternative A range would of course trigger more substantial interest rate declines as the market's assessment of future monetary policy and possibly also the business outlook changes. (15) The staff expects that interest rate declines under alternative A would facilitate attainment of higher longer-run growth rates for the monetary aggregates--typified by M1 growth over the next year in a 6-8 per cent range. The effect on money demands of these initial declines in interest rates are likely to be quite substantial, however, especially when considered in conjunction with expansion over the longer-run of transactions demands. Thus, the Federal funds rate under this alternative probably would have to begin rising again late in the year to keep money growth around the mid-point of the higher range. (16) Alternative C involves a Federal funds rate range over the next four weeks centered on 6 per cent. This would return the rate to where it was at about the time of the previous Committee meeting. Such an immediate rise in the funds rate appears most consistent with adoption by the Committee -10- of lower longer-run rates of growth in the monetary aggregates, indexed by M1 expansion over the year ahead in a 4-6½ per cent range. Also such a rise in the funds rate would not be inconsistent with the longer-run growth rates of alternative B. An immediate increase in the funds rate would retard money growth over the near term, but would imply somewhat less of a rise in the Federal funds rate over the next year than shown for alternative B in appendix Table IV. (17) A rebound in the funds rate to around 6 per cent would exert significant general upward pressure on interest rates, since it would be contrary to current market expectations. Yields on Treasury securities would probably be particularly affected given the imminent quarterly Treasury refunding and the continuing sizable volume of Federal deficit financing. these circumstances, savings inflows to depositary institutions could, of course, be expected to deteriorate. In -11Proposed directive (18) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. No reference to the forthcoming Treasury financing is proposed because the quarterly financing to be announced on October 22 is relatively small and because Treasury financings have been and for some time will continue to be frequent. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate] SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 10/17/75 CHART 1 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ~134 for Sept -Oct (10/15/75) i I A S i 0 1975 28 SI I I I M J 1974 I I I S I D M J 1975 S 0 RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios I N D CHART 2 CONNFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASSII-FOMC 10/17/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY Ml BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -300 I 280 260 1974 1975 A S 0 1975 N 0 CHART 3 10/17/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -520 500 - 00 nzon 480 0 BILLIONS OF DOI .LARS 39 37 TOTAL \\- 35 33 -- " I 31 1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove dlscontinuiltes associated wtih changes in reserve requirement ratios 8/15/75 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDIT IONS LY AGES INTEREST RATES Long-term PERCENT PER CENT 14 WEEKLY - 3 FHA MORTGAGES - FNMA MONDAY AUCTION FEDERAL FUINDS - 10 11 NEW ISSUE FR DISCOUNT RATE GOVT BONDS 10 YEAR AVERAGES RESERVES MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 4 THURSDAYS - 7 1974 1975 1974 1975 1974 1874 1975 1975 PER CENT CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES OC,. 17, 1075 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AVAILABLE RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE Period NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA oA I N oA REQUIRED RESERVES AGGREGATE RESERVES FOR SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PRIVATE Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Total Required Private Demand Gov't. and CD's and Other Time Nondeposits Interbank Deposits ___ 7 5 1 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. 32,938 329769 32,787 (32,657) 32,812 32,521 32,602 (32,559) 34,991 34,567 34,682 (34,589) 34,690 34,355 34.286 (34.413) 34,803 34.371 34,490 (34,425) 19,847 19,796 19,870 (19,611) 8,613 8.699 8,747 ( 8,743) ( 4,290 4,079 3,978 4,140) 2,053 1,798 1,895 ( 1,932) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. -4.7 0.5 -2.5 -8.3 1.2 -2.2 -1.4 -0.2 -4.1 -7.7 1.2 -2.1 -4.2 11.7 1.4 -7.1 -9.2 3.8 -1.4 -2.5 -1.1 -0.9 -3.7 -0.8 11.5 -2.8 -2.7 -0.7 -3.6 -1.0 -3.3 8.0 5.7 -0.1 -12.0 -1.8 1.6 -11.6 -2.4 S4.4) 4.6 -14.9 4.2 -2.3) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. MONTHLY 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. ( -2.1 -6.2 0.7 -4.8) 4.1 -14.5 4.0 -3.2) ( f -2.1) ( 0.4) S 1.0) ( S0.9) 2.9 -3.1 4.5 (-15.6) S-5.6) ( f -7.2 12.0 6.6 -0.5) 3.0) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1975--AUGo SEPT. OCT. 6 13 20 27 32,885 32,563 32,853 32,755 32,617 32,262 32,633 32,548 34,751 34,331 34,687 3 10 17 24 32,833 32,602 32,833 32,628 32,590 1 33,111 32,488 32,760 15 NOTE: 34,505 34,571 34.152 34,483 34,233 34,552 34.315 34,476 34,209 19,857 19,749 19,890 19,688 8.653 8,677 8,696 8,745 4,176 4,121 4,057 4,026 1,867 1,768 1,834 1,751 32,587 32.509 34,598 34,294 34,616 34,641 34,376 33,909 34,289 34,246 34,297 34,300 34,349 34,608 19,811 19,936 19.835 19.856 8,730 732 8r 8.772 8.748 3,991 3,939 3,960 3,992 1,765 1,692 1,783 2,013 33,279 32,216 32,600 35,303 34,400 34.602 34,722 34,162 34,430 34,837 34,385 34.358 19,879 19,655 19,655 8,745 8,748 8,736 4,021 4,070 4.126 2,192 1,912 1,842 32,134 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF SEPT. 16, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OF 1.0 TO 4.0 PERCENT FOR THE SEPT.-OCT. PERIOD. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS ]I-FOMC Table 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES OCT. 17 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad (M2) (Ml) Period U.S Govt Deposits 3 4 2 1 MONTHLY Adlusted Credit Proxy TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other CD's Than CD's Total Nondeposit Sources of Funds 6 8 5 7 LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. PERCENT ANNUAL 293.5 294.2 294.7 (294.0) 650.5 653.7 656.4 (658.4) 505.3 503.0 505*9 (507.6) 1 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.4) 439.1 437.4 440.7 (446.3) 357.0 359.4 361*7 (364.4) 82.1 78.0 79.1 1 81.9) ( 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.3) GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 0.8 11.2 2.3 7.6 13.4 6.4 3.1 7.5 -1.3 10.1 6.7 3.3 13.4 15.3 9.7 -2.2 -25.4 -23.8 -0.3 8.6 6.9 5.8 11.2 10.4 4.1 5.2 1.4 12.7 5.2 4.9 11.0 13.3 13.2 19.2 -24.0 -29.3 ( 5.5 -4.6 9.1 15.2) ( 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.0) I -28.5 -59.9 16.9 42.5) ( 12.2) ( 8.3) ( 30.0) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--15T QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. WEEKLY ( 2.0 2.9 2.0 -2.9) ( -0.4) ( 8.2 5.9 5.0 3.7) ( -5.2 -5.5 6.9 4.0) ( 4.3) ( 5.5) LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1975--AUG. 6 13 20 27 294.6 293.1 293.9 295.9 653.0 652.5 653.2 655.5 503.8 502.7 503.1 504.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 437.8 438.0 437.3 436.5 358.4 359.4 359.3 359.6 79.4 78.7 77.9 77.0 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.3 SEPT. 3 16 17 24 295.4 295.5 295.4 293.5 656.0 656.5 656.8 654.8 504.0 566.4 506.2 505.3 3.6 4.2 4.0 2.9 437.7 439.1 440.0 441.0 360.6 361.0 361.3 361.3 77.1 78.1 78.7 79.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 293.7 292.8 655.8 655.5 505.3 506.9 1.9 3.0 443.0 444.4 362.1 362.7 80.9 81.7 7.1 7.5 OCT. 1 8 P NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. P - PRELIMINARY 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II- FOMC OCTOBER 17, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept. (1) 112 Period 1975--Mar. Open Market Operations 1/ Agency RP's Coupon Issues Issues Net (3) (4) (2) 1,301 207 -1,758 Total (5) A In Reserve Categories Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4/ Req. res. against available res.5/ Member Open Market A Operations Bank Borrowing Factors V.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8J-(9) (10) (9) (8) (7) (6) ATarget available reserves 51 (11) -136 53 -41 -773 13 -774 -495 412 -734 580 495 -170 215 -456 -48 113p -325 -45 10 Apr. May June 1,319 197 -413 1,070 50 958 -2 -97 -6 5,442 -3,357 -1,855 7,829 -3,207 -1,317 2,229 5,064 -3,165 4 -50 211 -1,767 -5,747 3,438 54 1 -96 July Aug. Sept. -2,302 -371 1,932 -274 822 -2 313 393 -623 1,007 2,008 -2,926 1,222 5,155 -832 -1,332 2,458 -10 -50 186 553 1,210 -2,432p 167 -124 99p Oct. 265 Nov. 1975--Aug. Sept. Oct. 6 13 20 27 -382 -573 5 321 966* -566* -399* -- ---313 -3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632 -3,238** 1,349** 2,673** -1,998 -1,154** -1,521** 1,865** 575 -73 -2 26 68 781 1,134 -1,425 -802 -37 36 95 -73 409 -425 371 -86 3 10 17 -113 -223 309 273 -456 -1 -1 -- 2,225 -3,833 -794 2,384 -4,057 -29 747 -1,857 678 -50 163 -58 -638 1,263 -166 17 25 1 42 -456 453 24 1,427 367 -- 6,512 8,306 3,399 68 -3,402 143 1 435 -- 394 -1,092 -263 2,798 186 8 15 -240 -932 - - -5,806 1,548 -b,047 616 -2,763 -1,935 -343 - 65 -2,161p 2 ,009p 2,297p 67 p - 35p -87p 7 56p -1,062p 384p 22 29 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceeding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for September and October reflects the target adopted at the September 16, 1975 POMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. * Special certificate (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) ** Reflects special certificate purchase. P - Preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC TABLE OCTOBER 17, 4 1975 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Period 1972 1973 1974 INet Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ - Within L-year 1 - 5 Federal Agencies 5 - 10 Over 10 1,582 1,415 1,747 490 - 1975--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III -2,093 1,086 -757 1975--Apr. May June - July Aug. Sept. 1975--Aug. 945 43 1,295 143 352 - 369 1,917 - Sept.3 10 17 24 - 116 - 200 1 8 15 22 33 218 13 1 - 5 5 - 10 RP Net Nt 168 101 318 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 - 46 154 2,620 1,402 - 986 238 118 215 62 131 73 45 302 492 195 138 726 371 165 130 117 53 1,203 691 1,054 1,135 712 625 454 201 312 273 171 2,024 2,079 1,096 69 169 285 ----2 106 61 584 508 -- -2 3,076 63 747 1,060 53 230 2,392 -2 --- -2 -- 2,387 150 539 5,442 -3,357 -1,855 -- -2,304 ---- 64 514 ---- 1,070 50 958 S - 274 822 - 41 23 229 285 S - -- -- 49 57 34 29 - -- S- 41 229 S S 309 1,396 413 -239 -926 Total Outright Holdings Total 5/ 253 244 659 373 565 312 Over 10 592 400 1,665 -2,305 6 13 20 27 Oct. Total Within 1-year Net Change Purchases 4/ Net 3/ 7,232 1,280 1974--Qtr. III Qtr. IV ' I Purchases S S 23 - - 285 -- - 353 394 353 - - 57 29 -- - -- -3,822 2,488 3,067 -2,632 - - 34 -- 584 --1,138 -- - 394 -- 394 634 - 623 1,007 2,008 -- 49 - 216 3,148 159 223 765 1,794 2,225 -3,833 829 -1,092 -5,806 1,548 ----240 -932 - 794 6,512 Change from end-of-per iod to end-of-perLod. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes maturity shifts, o rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowi gs from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 17, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills Coupon Issues Member Bank Reserve Positions Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Excess** Borrowing at FRB** Bonds Bonds Reserves Total (6) 1974--High Low (1) 3,678 -289 (2) 2,203 -309 (3) 253 0 (4) 384 27 (5) 577 -168 3,906 647 1975--High Low *7,029 1,586 2,845 253 464 0 389 48 466 -50 871 18 Seasonal Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York (8) (7) 176 13 74p 5 38 Others (9) -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 - 6,046 -7,387 -1,757 -11,390 - 8,070 2,309 552 23 85 180 3,282 139 -4,235 - 8,250 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,174 2,900 2,985 654 1,608 1.836 25 83 175 166 268 149 197 205 258 1,813 1,252 727 117 67 32 -4,602 -6,322 -5,960 - 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 79 166 195 147 198 195 398 147 96 14 11 7 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302 Apr. May June 2,737 4,744 5,201 1,617 1,752 1,351 35 91 89 115 170 118 143 155 201 110 66 227 6 9 11 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 - 9,567 - 9,344 4,231 4,020 *5,008 1,246 1,204 *588 60 44 31 135 181 122 188 195 169p 259 211 358p 17 37 58 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 - 9,966 - 9.015 6 13 20 27 3,958 4,007 4,045 4,618 1,995 1,150 769 1,152 96 33 4 0 138 215 207 155 199 16 211 296 180 179 204 272 29 35 35 40 -4,082 -4,988 -3,672 -3,313 - 9,547 -10,640 - 9,733 - 9,870 Sept. 3 10 17 24 4,294 5,070 5,384 *4,779 1,103 894 253 * 477 1 33 30 58 183 84 113 107 301 -6 267 33 222 385 327 395 51 54 61 64 -2,745 -4,884 -3,932 -3,190 - 9,391 -10,478 -10,094 - 8,393 1 8 15 22 29 *4,657 *5,812 *7,029 * 462 * 846 *1,576 466 58 1p 238p 173p 74p 74p 66 p -2,575 6 -2,7 5p 3 43 - , 7p - 7,2078 - 9,96 p -10,360p 1974--Sept. July Aug. Sept. 1975--Aug. Oct. NOTE: 5 0 7p 142 154 82 p p 15p 245p Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) TABLE 6 CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 17, 1975 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Short-Term ILong-Term Aaa Utility Recently New Issue Offered (7) (8) Municipal Bond Buyer (9) U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturity) (10) FNMA Auctions Yields (11) 10.52 8.14 7.15 5.16 8.68 7.40 10.59 8.43 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.6j 7.63 9.95 8.78 11.38 10.38 10.30 6.76 8.60 10.58 9.35 8.78 9.00 9.33 8.72 8.84 10.16 9.21 9.53 10.23 9.34 9.56 6.57 6.61 7.05 8.37 7.99 7.91 10.22 9.87 9.53 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.70 5.67 5.85 5.44 5.34 7.45 6.25 6.03 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.67 9.63 9.20 9.45 9.09 9.38 9.66 9.65 9.33 6.82 6.39 6.74 6.94 6.97 6.94 7.88 7.71 7.99 8.36 8.22 8.04 9.25 8.93 8.82 9.06 9.27 9.09 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.42 9.45 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 6.09 6.08 6.15 6.23 6.37 6.41 6.44 6.52 6.99 7.15 7.23 7.26 6.50 6.58 6.63 6.63 6.38 6.25 6.25 6.38 6.50 6.63 6.63 6.75 9.44 9.43 9.53 9.49 9.51 9.49 9.54 9.50 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.18 8.49 8.50 8.53 8.48 3 10 17 24 6.06 6.15 6.28 6.29 6.40 6.39 6.48 6.36 7.08 7.06 7.31 7.21 6.69 6.75 6.80 6.83 6.38 6.38 6.50 6.50 6.75 6.88 6.88 6.75 9.64 9.68 9.70 9.41 9.50 9.61 9.70 7.34 7.40 7.49 7.54 8.47 8.61 8.63 8.52 1 8 15 22 29 6.36 6.06 5.82 6.47 6.32 6.13 7.26 6.88 6.61 6.80 6.83 6.53 6.50 6.38 6.13 7.00 6.75 6.38 9.72 9.60 9.5 3 p 9.70 9.56 9 51 . p 7.67 7.48 7.29 8.59 8.43 8.36p 5.87 5.7 9 p 6.22 5.97 6.76 6.46 6.63 6.38 Treasury Bills CD's New Issue-NYC Federal Funds (1) 90-day (2) 1-year (3) 190-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) 1974--High Low 13.55 8.45 9.63 6.53 9.54 6.39 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 11.34 8.06 8.52 11.36 11.19 10.06 9.45 8.53 7.46 7.47 7.15 7.59 7.29 6.79 9.55 8.95 9.18 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 6.27 5.56 5.70 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 5.55 5.61 5.23 5.34 July Aug. Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 Period 1974--Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1975--Aug. Sept. Oct. Daily--oct. 9 16 60-89 Day (5) 90-119 Day (6) p - 9.50 9.70 9.86 9.95 8.40 n.a. -- NOTE: 9.32 ~----- Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The PNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Preliminary. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A OCT. 17, 1975 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES RESERVES! Period Total Non- Available to Adl Total Loans borrowed Support Pvt Credit proxy and Invest- Deposits M1 M M M4 M5 M6 M7 9 10 11 12 ments 3 4 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES R 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 10.8 7.9 8.5 7.5 7.3 10,7 10.1 9.Z 8.9 11.3 10.4 10.2 14.6 13.5 9.2 8.7 6.1 4.8 11.1 8.8 7.2 13.2 8.8 6.8 12.5 11.6 10.6 14.0 10.6 9.0 12.9 11.2 9.1 12.9 11.9 8.9 1ST HALF 1974 2NO HALF 1974 10.8 5.9 0.4 21.0 12.6 4.9 14.5 5.4 15.0 3.1 6.3 3.1 8.7 5.5 7.9 5.4 13.3 7.5 10.9 6.7 11.0 6.9 11.0 6.5 1ST HALF 1975 -3.6 -0.8 -2.1 5.3 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 3.4 10.6 13.0 7.5 10.7 10.1 9.9 5.3 6.7 6.9 9.0 8.4 8.1 6.5 6.0 QUARTERLY: 4TH QTR. 1974 3.6 36.0 0.8 4.2 1ST OTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD 0TR. 1975 1975 1975 -8.3 1.2 -2.2 -1.4 -0.2 -4.1 -4.7 0.5 -2.5 3.1 7.5 -1.3 4.3 2.3 4.8 0.8 11.2 2.3 7.6 13.4 6.4 9.9 15.7 9.8 6.3 8.6 3.0 8.8 12.3 7.3 7.9 12.0 7.0 7.6 11.9 6.6 1.4 27.3 2.5 3.5 0.2 3.9 6.2 5.8 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.8 11.2 10.4 7.8 13.8 13.1 7.4 6.6 5.7 8.8 10.6 9.9 8.0 9.9 9.5 7.0 9.9 9.2 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 3.0 7.1 5.9 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.4 4.0 8.0 6.2 10.8 4.4 8.8 5.8 9.4 5.0 8.5 3.6 7.3 2.5 8*4 11.6 7.3 13.4 19.2 8.2 5.9 5.0 5.6 9.9 13.9 11.7 14.9 19.8 12.2 9.4 7.4 6.7 6.1 6.1 4.2 7.0 14.3 4.1 -1.5 6.2 7.9 8.2 10.2 9.2 10.7 16.7 9.1 4.4 8.1 8.2 7.6 8.2 9.6 10.0 16.3 9.2 3.8 7.8 7.5 6.9 -1.0 OUARTERLY-AV: 4TH OTR. 1ST OTR. 2NZ OTR. 3RD OTR. 1974 1975 1975 1975 -0.9 -3.7 -0.8 11.5 -2.8 -2.7 -1.4 -2.5 -1.1 4.1 5.2 1.4 0.1 3.5 4.2 6.8 -3.1 -1.6 15.5 9.6 51.9 18.5 34.7 7.8 -1.5 -2.7 6.5 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.4 7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.7 10.3 4.1 -14.5 4.0 19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.2 4.8 1.6 -11.6 -2.4 0.0 3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.1 -5.2 -5.5 6.9 3.5 2.8 6.7 2.4 3.8 0.9 5.3 6.8 2.2 -0.3 8.6 6.9 MONTHLY I 1974--SEPT. OCT. NOV. 6EC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APt. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 9.1 -2.1 -6.2 0.7 ___I _ ___ NOTES: I 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 -11.8 3.4 11.0 3.4 11.3 18.7 2.0 2.9 2.0 7.7 _ RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, RASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE 1/ P - PRELIMINARY. * 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS _ ON BANK-RELATED 8.5 9.5 9.8 15.9 8.8 3.4 7.6 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES OCT. 17, 1975 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period To ta Non l borrowed Available to Support Pvt proxy Total Loans and Invest. M M M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 4 ments 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Adl Credit Deposits 12 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES E RESERVES- 3 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 30,327 32,711 29,278 31,413 28,039 30,610 406.4 448.7 559.0 634.6 255.8 271.5 525.7 572.2 844.9 919.6 569.7 636.0 888.8 983.4 985.5 1095.4 1013.1 1133.6 1974--SEPT. 35,187 31,904 33,278 489.2 695.2 280.7 603.4 965.0 688.2 1049.9 1171.5 1214.9 OCT. 35,097 35,050 35,503 33.284 33,798 34,776 33,236 33.160 33,341 488.3 696.0 697.4 691.9 281.6 283.6 284.4 607.6 611.6 613.5 970.7 976.9 981.7 693.8 697.1 703.7 1056.9 1062.4 1072.0 1180.1 1185.8 1195.1 1223.5 1227.2 1234.7 35,737 34,925 34,764 35,339 34,777 34,658 33,341 33,103 32,951 495.8 495.7 MAR. 693.9 695.5 699.4 281.6 282.4 285.0 614.8 619.1 625.1 986.3 994.4 1005.9 707.6 711.2 714.8 1079.1 1086.5 1095.7 1203.3 1210.3 1218.6 1242.4 1249.5 1258.3 APR. MAY JUNE 35,003 34,574 34,872 34,892 34,508 34,645 33,032 32,748 32,995 500.2 285.8 288.5 293.0 628.9 635.9 507.5 700.8 703.0 703.5 646.1 1015.7 1028.3 1045.3 717.3 721.5 730.1 1104.1 1113.9 1129.4 1228.3 1238.5 1255.3 1268.3 1278.7 1295.6 JULY AUG. SEPT, P 34,991 34,567 34,682 34,690 34,355 34,286 32,938 32,769 32,787 505.3 503.0 505.9 706.6 710.6 711.9 293.5 294.2 294.7 650.5 653.7 656.4 1055.9 1064.2 1070.8 732.6 731.7 735.5 1138.0 1142.2 1149.9 1264.9 1268.9 1277.2 1305.1 1308.8 1317.1 13 20 27 34,331 34,687 34,505 34,152 34,483 34,233 32,563 32,853 32,755 502.7 503.1 504.0 293.1 293.9 295.9 652.5 653.2 655*5 731.1 731.1 732.5 3 10 17 24 34,598 34,294 34,616 34,641 34,376 33,909 34,289 34,246 32,833 32,602 32,833 32,628 504.0 566.4 506.2 505.3 295.4 295.5 295.4 293.5 656.0 656.5 656.8 654.8 733.1 734.6 735.5 734.5 35,303 34,400 34,722 34,162 33.111 32,488 505.3 506.9 293.7 292.8 655.8 655.5 736.7 737.2 MONTHLY: NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB 491.2 494.3 498.1 501.2 WEEKLYs 197S--AUG. SEPT. OCT. 1P 8P LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT 70 RESERVE REOUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS* RELATED INSTITUTIONS, WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MSi M6, M7t TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY NOTES: 1/ P - OCT. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 17, 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Period Demand Deme Deposts Total Deposits Time Mutual Other CD's Savings Bank and S & L C_^____ Ds 1 2 3 ANNUALLY: Short Credit Union Shares CD's Savings Bondsvt Term ICommercal Paper Securities Shares. 7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 8 9 10 8.2 8.3 10.2 8.9 5.5 3.1 15.7 16.2 15.0 13.5 11.4 9.4 16.7 8.5 18.0 13.9 11.8 1.6 31.0 45.3 41.5 6.1 5.1 4,8 0.5 30.9 15.7 15.0 38.8 3.4 9.7 10.2 5.2 1.0 18.b 10.5 10.9 7.6 5.9 5.1 13.0 9.9 54.9 22.1 4.3 5.2 19.2 11.2 12.5 -5.4 1975 9.4 5.0 8.5 14.6 16.3 22.5 6.1 3.0 3.5 OTR. 1974 12.1 3.2 11.6 7.9 6.9 12.0 5.2 4.0 15T OTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 1975 1975 1975 8.8 9.8 5.1 -1.7 11.7 1.6 10.1 6.7 3.3 13.4 15.3 9.7 13.1 18.9 15.5 20.4 23.5 11.8 6,4 5.6 6.8 -7.3 13.5 2.0 1,0 6.0 -4.0 8.2 4.9 10.6 15.2 5.8 10.8 -9.4 1972 1973 1974 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 IST HALF -13.7 QUARTERLY: 4TH 25.9 -2.2 -25.4 -23.8 -34.2 OUARTERLY-AV, 9.7 4TH QTR. 1974 11.6 1.7 1ST 2ND 3RD OTR. QTR. QTR. 1975 1975 1975 8.9 8.7 8.5 -3.3 8.6 6.6 12.7 5.2 4.9 11.0 13.3 13.2 10.8 17.6 17.6 17.6 22.5 17.3 19.2 -24.0 -29.3 5.8 5.7 6.2 -3.3 2.0 6.6 -20.2 8.1 -2.0 1974--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7 6.8 13.5 4.1 16.8 4.5 11.9 7.7 4.0 2.9 4.3 7.1 9.2 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2 14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 3.8 12.2 24.1 -2.0 -9.9 19.7 2.8 -55.3 -52.2 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 5.3 8.8 12.2 1.7 12.1 15.4 5.1 8.4 1.7 -17.2 1.7 10.7 3.9 11.1 19.8 1.1 1.1 2.7 19.2 7.9 3.1 4,5 3.9 11.6 5.5 -4.6 9.1 14.9 12.6 12.1 10.6 15.0 19.7 13.3 8.1 7.7 9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 20.2 18.9 14.7 12.3 17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 20.4 28.1 15.7 19.4 0.0 31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 -28.5 -59.9 16.9 7.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.4 5.5 7.3 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 20.3 0.0 19.9 11.8 -11.7 5.9 -15.2 6.1 12.2 9.1 6.0 .0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 MONTHLY: NOTES: P RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 196c, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED 1970. COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF 1/ PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. OCT. APPENDIX TABLE 2-B Appendix Table 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency 1 DemandTotal Deposits Time pnk Deposits 2 3 Time Other Than C's S 4 Mutual Savings and & and S & L Shares 5 Short Credit Shares Unin Shares CD's Bonds U STerm Gov't Commercial Paper er Securtes 17, 1975 Non- US deposit Gov't Funds Demand 11 12 1 6 7 8 9 10 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 56.9 61.6 198.9 209.9 313.8 364.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.8 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.6 38.3 4.3 6.6 5.6 3.9 1974--SEPT. 65.9 214.8 407.5 322.7 335.0 26.7 84.8 62.0 59.7 43.3 8.6 6.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 66.5 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.2 216.5 412.1 413.5 419.3 325.9 328.0 329.1 336.2 338*2 340.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.6 62.8 60.9 60.8 60.3 43.4 41.4 39.6 7.9 7.6 8.4 3.7 4.6 1.9 68.2 68.7 69.4 213.4 213.7 215.6 426.0 428.8 429.9 333.2 336.7 340.1 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39.7 7.6 6.5 6.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.2 71.1 216.3 218.3 221.9 431.5 432.9 437.1 343.1 347.4 353.1 357.4 362.5 368.6 29.4 29.9 30.6 88.4 85.5 84.1 64.1 64.4 64.7 60.2 60.2 61.2 40.0 40.2 40.3 6.7 7.4 7.0 2.1 2.1 3.8 JULY AUG. SEPT. P 71.4 71.9 72.0 222.1 222.3 222.8 439.1 437.4 440.7 357.0 359.4 361.7 374.4 379.0 382.9 31.0 31.5 31.5 82.1 78.0 79.1 65.1 65.4 65.8 61.8 61.2 61.5 40.2 40.0 39.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 2.5 2.9 3.0 1975--AUG. 13 20 27 71.9 71.8 72.0 221.2 222.1 223.9 438.0 437.3 436.5 359.4 359.3 359.6 78.7 77.9 77.0 6.8 7.1 7.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 72.0 71.9 72.1 72.1 223.4 223.6 223.4 221.4 437.7 439.1 440.0 441.0 30.6 361.0 361.3 361.3 77*1 78.1 78.7 79.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3*6 4.2 4.0 2.9 72.0 72.4 221.7 220.4 443.0 444.4 362.1 362.7 80.9 81.7 7.1 7.5 1.9 3.0 MONTHLY: 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. WEEKLY: SEPT. OCT. NOTES: 1/ 3 10 17 24 IP 8P ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FUR STATEMENT WEEKSo MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M2 M1 M Q M3 M _ M Q 10.4 I 3.4 6.8 7.3 9.1 8.8 II 11.3 7.3 10.6 8.6 10.5 9.1 III 0.6 5.5 5.6 7.8 5.2 7.5 IV 8.7 5.0 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.1 6.3 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.0 1974 I 5.5 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 II 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 III 1.0 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 IV 5.3 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.8 5.2 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 0.8 -0.3 7.6 5.8 9.9 7.8 11.2 8.6 13.4 11.2 6.9 6.4 10.4 1973 2.3 15.7 9.8 13.8 13.1 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 QIV 5% 6% 7 1976 QI 6% 7% 8% QII 7% 8s 9k QIII 7k 9 10 

Federal Reserve (1975, October 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751021

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19751021,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19751021},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}