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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC July 11, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC July 11, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Growth of M1 accelerated further from May to June, on average, to about an 18 per cent annual rate, but data for the two statement weeks ending July 9--a period after Federal tax rebates and special social security payments had ended--indicate a significant decline in the level of the money stock. For June and July combined, therefore, growth in M1 is now projected at an annual rate of about 8½ per cent--well within the Committee's two-month range of tolerance. While growth of bank time and savings deposits other than large CD's has also slowed recently, expansion of M 2 still appears likely to run somewhat above its two-month range of tolerance, as the table shows. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over June-July period Reserve and monetary aggregate (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Range of Tolerance Latest Estimates M1 6½-9½ 8.5 M2 9-12 12.7 RPD 5-8 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ 5-6½ 1/ 3.0 Avg. for statement week ending 5.72 6/25 6.31 7/2 6.06 7/9 Upper limit raised from 6 to 6¼ per cent by a majority vote of the Committee on June 26, with the understanding that the added leeway would be used only if another week's data confirmed excessive strength in the monetary aggregates. (2) Until the early days of July, incoming data on the monetary aggregates were running well ahead of earlier staff projections, implying growth in M 1 and M 2 at rates substantially in excess of the Committee's ranges of tolerance. The Desk responded to this evidence of excessive monetary growth, first by seeking a Federal funds rate moving up to around 5¾ per cent, and then by raising the target to the 6 per cent upper limit of the Committee's range. On June 26 a majority of the Committee concurred with the Chairman's recommendation to increase the upper limit of the funds rate range to 6¼ per cent, on the understanding that the additional leeway would be utilized "only in the event that another week's data confirm excessive strength in monetary aggregates". In the early days of July, however, incoming data indicated a weakening of the monetary aggregates relative to staff projections; thus, the additional leeway was not used. (3) Special factors affecting the Federal funds market did force the average funds rate above 6 per cent, however, in late June and early July. On the two trading days that preceded the Monday, June 30 bank statement date, the daily funds rate rose to 6.31 and 6.61 per cent, respectively, as banks positioned themselves to minimize borrowing on the statement date itself. As a result, even though the rate then dropped back to around 6 per cent, the average for the week was 6.31 per cent. On Thursday, July 3, banks scrambled to bolster their reserve positions before the long holiday weekend. the funds rate up to about 6¼ per cent. This forced After the holiday weekend, however, the funds rate fell back, fluctuating generally between 5¾ and 6 per cent. Member bank borrowing at Federal Reserve Banks rose to nearly $1.5 billion just prior to the end-of-June statement date and averaged $871 million in that week. In the statement week just ended member borrowing averaged $223 million, still somewhat on the high side of recent experience. (4) Advances in short-term rates during the intermeeting period were most pronounced in the Treasury bill market. The 3-month bill--after reaching a peak rate of 6.20 per cent in last Monday's auction--has traded most recently at around 6 per cent, which compares with a level just above 5 per cent prevailing at the time of the last meeting. The advance in bill rates was particularly large because dealers had previously built up positions in anticipation of the seasonal contraction in bill supply during the latter half of June. When the funds rate then began to rise after mid-June, dealers pressed aggressively to reduce their swollen positions. The impact of this shift in dealer strategy was augmented when foreign buyers at the same time began cutting back on demands for bills and the Treasury shortly resumed its net additions to supply in bill auctions. Other short-term rates responded to the rise in Federal funds and Treasury bill rates--showing net advances of 75 to 100 basis points over the intermeeting period. (5) In longer-term securities markets, yield advances for the intermeeting period amounted to about 20-30 basis points on Treasury and new high grade corporate issues. Most recently, however, these markets have stabilized, and new issues have been readily distributed. -4Rates on State and local government securities showed little net change for the period, but they were already close to their 1974 highs. Mortgage rates have been generally stable, although the volume of mortgage offerings accepted in FNMA secondary market auctions has grown. (6) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods. Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. Calendar Year 1974 Twelve Months Past Six Months Past Three Months Past Month June '75 June '75 over over June 75 over June '75 over June '74 Dec. '74 Mar. '75 May '75 10.7 8.6 1.2 -3.5 1.4 10.8 10.1 - .7 -- 8.9 1.5 -2.0 .8 9.6 4.8 5.0 6.8 11.2 18.2 7.2 8.4 11.0 13.3 18.8 6.8 9.4 13.0 15.3 18.8 i4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.7 7.8 7.8 8.5 14.1 lus CD's) 9.0 8.9 10.8 12.0 15.8 10.2 5.5 5.4 7.6 15.3 9.2 3.3 3.4 2.3 .9 2.2 .2 -1.0 -1.9 -1.4 - - .5 - .3 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 5.1 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 2 (M plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (1 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 1M (M3 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks Short-term 2/ arket Paper (bnthly average change in billions) Large CD's .4 .2 Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. .1 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Summarized below for Committee consideration are three alternative short-run operating specifications for policy. More detailed figures, including associated longer-run growth rates, are presented in the tables on pp. 6a and 6b. Alternative operating guides expressed in terms of nonborrowed reserves, as well as other related reserve measures, are shown in appendix table IV. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 4 to 6 3½ to 5½ 3 to 5 M2 9 to 11 8½ to 10½ 8 to 10 Ranges of tolerance for July-Aug. RPD -½ to 1½ Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) 5 to 6 -1½ to ½ 5 to 6½ -2½ to -½ 6¼ to 7¼ Memorandum item: 6-month annual growth rate (June '75- Dec. '75) M1 8 7 6 M2 11 10 9 (8) The short-run specifications of alternative B involve maintenance of prevailing money market conditions between now and the next Committee meeting. Thus, the Federal funds rate range shown is centered on 6 per cent. It is expected that growth in M1 and M 2 over the two-month July-August period will slow considerably from the recent extreme pace. M 1 is likely to expand in a 3½-5½ per cent annual rate -6aAlternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A M3 M2 M1 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C June July August 294.1 293.8 296.5 294.1 294.1 647.3 647.3 647.3 1045.7 1045.7 1045.7 293.8 293.7 651.0 650.9 650.7 1055.1 1054.9 1054.6 296.4 296.2 657.8 657.4 656.8 1066.6 1065.9 1065.0 1975 Dec. 305.7 304.2 302.9 682.8 679.9 676.8 1108.3 1104.0 1099.6 1976 June 312.5 310.7 310.7 704.0 698.9 695.3 1145.9 1137.2 1129.8 1975 QII-Av. QIV-Av. 290.3 303.5 290.3 302.5 290.3 301.6 638.3 676.7 633.3 674.5 638.3 672.2 1030.8 1098.3 1030.8 1095.0 1030.8 1091.4 1976 QII-Av. 310.2 308.6 308.6 700.0 695.3 692.0 1139.6 1131.6 1124.9 7.9 6.9 6.0 11.0 10.1 12.0 11.2 4.4 4.3 5.2 6.2 5.6 6.8 6.0 5.5 QII-Av.'75-QIV Av.'75 9.1 8.4 7.8 12.0 11.3 10.6 13.1 12.5 11.8 QIV-Av.'75-QII-Av.'76 4.4 4.0 4.6 6.9 6.2 5.9 7.5 6.7 6.1 6.3 5.7 5.7 8.8 8.0 7.4 9.6 8.8 8.0 6.9 6.3 6.3 9.7 8.9 8.4 10.6 9.8 9.1 1975 June '75 - Dec. '75 Dec. '75 - June '76 June '75 QII-Av. - June '76 75-QII-Av.' 76 9.1 5.5 10.3 -6b Alternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M M5 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C June July August 731.4 734.1 739.4 731.4 733.9 738.9 731.4 733.7 738.4 Dec. 764.2 761.9 1976 June 791.2 1975 QII-Av. QIV-Av. 1976 QII-Av. 1975 Alt. A Credit Proxy Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1129.8 1138.2 1148.2 1129.8 1137.9 1147.4 1129.8 1137.6 1146.6 507.6 505.4 507.5 507.6 505.2 507.1 507.6 505.1 506.8 759.7 1189.7 1185.8 1181.9 523.0 521.6 520.2 787.3 785.0 1233.2 1225.6 1219.5 538.1 535.8 534.6 724.4 758.1 724.4 756.3 724.4 754.5 1116.8 1179.8 1116.8 1176.7 1116.8 1173.6 503.0 519.3 503.0 518.1 503.0 517.0 786.0 782.3 780.2 1225.6 1218.6 1213.1 534.4 532.4 531.1 June' 75-Dec. '75 Dec.' 75-June' 76 9.0 7.1 8.3 6.7 7.7 6.7 10.6 7.3 9.9 6.7 QII-Av.'75-QIV-Av.'75 QIV-Av.'75-QI-Av. '76 9.3 7.4 8.8 8.3 6.8 11.3 7.8 10.7 7.1 10.2 6.9 June'75-June'76 8.2 7.6 7.3 9.2 QII-Av.'75-QII-Av.'76 8.5 8.0 7.7 9.7 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.5 6.7 6.5 5.8 6.0 5.4 5.6 5.5 8.5 7.9 6.0 5.6 5.3 9.1 8.6 6.2 5.8 5.6 9.2 6.4 -7range, and M 2 in an 8½-10½ per cent range. Preliminary data for M 1 in late June and early July indicate an unwinding of the recent deposit expansion and support the view that the upsurge in good part reflected temporary factors (tax rebates and one-time payments to social security recipients). For July, M1 growth is expected to be slightly negative, while growth in August is expected to resume at a pace more consonant with underlying transactions demands, given prevailing money market conditions. (9) While alternative B calls for maintenance of prevailing money market conditions in the short-run, given the temporary slowing expected in M1 growth, it appears likely that money market conditions will need to be tightened further later on in order to achieve growth in the aggregates as indexed by expansion in M1 over the next year at around the center of the 5-7½ per cent range adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. The staff at this point believes that the funds rate might need to rise to the neighborhood of 8 per cent by fall, if the projected 13 per cent annual rate of increase in nominal GNP for the second half of 1975 materializes. On that assumption we would expect M1 growth in the second half of 1975 to be at about a 7 per cent annual rate; a lower growth rate in the first half of 1976 would hence be required if the Committee's longer-run M1 target is to be achieved. (10) In the table on p. 6a, under alternative B, the one-year growth rate for M 1 from June '75 to June '76 is shown as 5¾ per cent-which is ½ point below the mid-point of the 5-7½ per cent target range. The staff used such a rate in the alternative B calculations because the substantial overshoot in M1 growth during June raised the base level for that month by about $1.7 billion above the estimate made at the previous FOMC meeting. June 1976, Over the 12-month period from June 1975 to M1 would therefore have to grow about indicated earlier if per cent less than the Committee wished to ensure that the June overshoot did not permanently raise the money supply. The long-run growth rate under alternative B measured on a quarterly average basis--that is, from the average level for M1 in the second quarter of 1975 to the average level in the second quarter of 1976--is around 6¾ per cent, as is (11) also shown in the table. The same one-year growth rates are shown for alternative C as for alternative B--with alternative C implying a somewhat different pattern of monetary growth rates and interest rate movements over the two six month periods, as will be noted below. Alternative A includes a growth rate for the June '75-June '76 period of 6¼ per cent from the current estimate of the June '75 base. Thus, it is keyed to the mid-point of the 5-7 per cent range adopted by the Committee for that period at its last meeting and, in effect, "forgives" the June overshoot. from QII '75 (12) to QII '76 This alternative implies M1 growth of around 6-3/4 per cent. The short-run specifications for alternative C contemplate some further near-term tightening of the money market, involving a Federal funds rate range of 6¼-7¼per cent for the period until the next meeting. Adoption of this alternative would introduce an increased monetary restraint earlier than under alternative B. As a result, the staff would expect that less additional pressure would have to be exerted on the Federal funds rate later on to achieve targeted growth in the monetary aggregates over the next year. Over the July-August period M1 growth under this alternative would be expected to be at about a 3-5 per cent annual rate, with growth over the last half of 1975 at around a 6 per cent annual rate, or one percentage point less than under alternative B. (13) If the Federal funds rate were to rise in coming weeks to the 6¾ per cent mid-point of the alternative C range, a very substantial upward adjustment in other short-term rates would likely ensue. The 3-month bill rate would probably move up to around 7 per cent, the commercial paper rate to around 7 per cent, and the general level of the prime loan rate would adjust upwards. However, if the Federal funds rate were stabilized at around 6 per cent, as is contemplated under alternative B, no more than minor upward market rate adjustments, if any, would seem likely in the weeks immediately ahead. The Treasury will be adding substantial amounts to weekly and monthly bill auctions, but private short-term credit demands still appear weak enough so that Treasury bills can probably be readily marketed to banks and other investors. (14) On July 23, the Treasury will announce the terms of its mid-August refunding of $4.8 billion of maturing publicly-held coupon issues and will probably also raise some new cash at that time. While specific maturity areas of the new offerings are still uncertain, it seems clear that intermediate-term issues will be involved and possibly a longer-term option as well. In the corporate bond market, a continued large volume of new issues is expected this summer, though less than in -10June. The municipal volume will also be large, including another $1 billion from the Municipal Assistance Corporation for New York City, in late July or August and a third $1 billion by early fall. Given these near-term demands on bond markets, any appreciable further tightening of the money market in the weeks ahead would be likely to exert some additional upward pressure on longer-term interest rates. Such pressures could be moderated, of course, by postponements of corporate bond issues-as might happen if borrowers thought that inflation was coming under control and,therefore,that higher bond yields were not sustainable over the longer run. (15) Alternative A involves an easing of money market conditions over the near-term, which in effect reverses the recent tightening. Market interest rates would tend to decline in sympathy, but declines might be quite modest as many market participants may assume that the easing in money market conditions will be transitory, given the consensus forecast of a strengthening in economic activity. Indeed, the staff believes that under this alternative, short-term rates would have to begin rising again by late summer or early fall to achieve longer-term objectives for the monetary aggregates. (16) Under all three alternatives net inflows of time and savings deposits (other than large money market CD's) to banks and to thrift institutions are expected to slow from their recent unusually rapid pace that included the effects on savings of tax rebates and one-time social security payments. The slowdown would be greatest over the near-term under alternative C, which involves the probability of a -11significant further rise in short-term market interest rates. Never- theless, net inflows of consumer-type time deposits are still likely to be good-sized during the summer. Later this fall reduced inflows might be expected to exert more pronounced pressures on banks to raise additional funds in the CD market and on thrift institutions to borrow from Home Loan Banks and commercial banks under either alternatives B or C. -12Proposed directive (17) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first three are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section, while the fourth may be associated with any of the policy alternatives. In all of the alternatives, it is proposed to include a reference to Treasury financing because of the regular mid-August financing that will be announced on July 23. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, [DEL: con moderate] PROVIDED with sistent THAT growth in monetary the over aggregates APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SUBSTANTIALLY [DEL: ahead]. months Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee acheive] MAINTAIN ABOUT THE PREVAILING bank reserve seeks to [DEL: and money market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, moderate] with consistent [DEL: IN THE EXPECTATION THAT growth in monetary aggregates WILL SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY [DEL: months the over ahead]. -13Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT TIGHTER bank reserve and money consistent market conditions OVER THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD, [DEL: moderate] with IN ORDER TO ENCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING OF ahead]. months the over growth in monetary aggregates [DEL: Possible substitute wording for all alternatives To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 7/11/75 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 38 36 8% growth for June-J uly 34 32 M A M 1975 30 - I I I I I I I I I I I . M . . . J 1974 . . . S . I. I. I. I. . IIIIl1111,11 D M . I. J 1975 . I. I. S > .. . 28 . D RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios J J CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 7/11/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S300 280 IIIlSI i I ljlllll iI I l i I I 1 I l IIII I BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 -1 40 620 -4 600 1974 1975 1975 7/11/75 CHART 3 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 520 - 500 - 480 -460 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 7 39 37 - TOTAL - 35 33 V 31 I I I " 0 1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in r eserve requirement ratios 6/16/75. CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT l~ q INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT INTEREST RATES Long-term FUNDS F.R. DISCOUNT RATE RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BORROWED - Il NET BORROWED III ill1 1974 Ill1l 111111 1975 A 1974 1975 1974 1975 PER CENT CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES JULY 11, 1975 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) RESERVES AVAILABLE PRIVATE FOR FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS PeriodPeriod SA SA I NSA REQUIRED RESERVES AGGREGATE RESERVES --------------Total Nonborrowed Reserves Reserves SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Total Required Private Demand --- ------ Other Time CD's and Nondeposits Deposits Gov't. and Interbank NS MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1975--MAR. APR* MAY JUNE JULY PERCENT 32.951 33,032 32,752 133,014) 132,915) 32,694 33,098 32,608 (32,7531 132,789) 34,764 35,003 34,581 (34,888) 135,003) 34.658 34,892 34,515 (34,661) (34,840) 34,564 34,845 34,422 134,668) 134,816) 19,236 19,474 19,405 (19,799) S10,807) 8,868 8,796 8,715 ( 8,666) 1 8,610) 4,643 4,602 4,471 ( 4,330) I 4.311) 1,817 1,973 1,830 ( 1,874) 2,088) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1975-1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 9.1 0.8 I 8.3 3.5 -4.7 0.8) I -8.3 1.4) 5.5 35.9 1 -1.4 0.0) 8.4 2.8 ( 0.0 5.3 -7.7 1.2) -4.2 S11.7) MONTHLY 1975--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY -7.6 -9.1 -5.5 2.9 -10.2 S 9.6) 1 -3.6) JUNE-JULY 11.0 6.5 ! -5.5 8.3 -1,.5 S10.7) 1 3.0) 4.0) -4.1 8.1 -13.0 5S.1) I 6.2) 7.3) S 5.6) -5.8 9.8 -14.6 ! 8.6) 5I.1) ( 6.91 1 ( 8.9 14.8 -4.3 24.4) 0.5) (12.4) -17.1 -11.1 -6 7) -7.81 -7.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1275--MAY 14 21 28 JUNE JULY NOTE: 32,601 32,649 32.742 329.21 32,384 32,418 34,437 34,617 34.311 34,420 34,496 34,227 34,438 34,532 34,147 19,367 19,411 19,433 8,734 8.697 8.717 4, 500 4,455 4,429 1,838 1, 9e9 1,569 4 11 8e 25 32,987 32,754 33,165 32,971 32,608 32,189 33,007 32,817 34,682 34,047 35,160 35,045 34.598 34,009 35,083 34,857 34,348 34,083 34,776 34,924 19,566 19,760 19,804 19,884 8.680 8,702 8,677 8,645 4,407 4,329 4,300 4,320 1,o95 1.293 1,995 2,074 2 9 33,240 32,951 33,216 32,524 35,c29 3A.01 34,758 34,668 35,235 34,805 19,913 10,953 8,616 8,582 4,326 4.329 2,380 1.9-0 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN AD JUSTE D TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT R A T IO, DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAY 20, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 6.2 5 TO 8.25 PERCENT FOR T H E JUNE-JULY PERI OD. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) Table 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES CLASS FOMC II JULY 11, 1975 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period (M1) 1 Adjusted Credit U.S. Govt. (M2) Proxy Deposits 2 3 4 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other Nondeposit Sources of Total Than CD's CD's Funds 5 6 7 8 MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 286.1 287.1 289.7 (294.1) (293.8) 1975--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY 626.4 630.4 637.3 (647.3) (650.8) 498.1 500.2 501.2 (507.6) (505.2) I ( 430.0 431.7 433.1 (437.3) (440.1) 0.7 2.1 2.1 3.8) 2.4) 89.8 88.4 8505 ( 84.1) ( 83.0) 340.3 343.3 347.6 (353.2) (357.1) ( ( 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.0) 6.9) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974-3RD QTR. 4TH OTRe 1.0 5.3 4.2 6.7 6.7 4.2 9.1 11.7 7.1 7.9 17.2 25.9 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 2.4 11.2 8.4 13.3 3.1 7.6 10.1 6.6 13.6 15.2 -2.2 -25.4 ( ( 11.0 4.2 10.9 18.2) -1.2) ( I 11.8 7e7 13.1 18.8) 6.5) 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.3) -5.7) ( ( 3.1 4.7 3.9 11.6) 7.7) ( ( 12.5 10.6 15.0 19.3) 13.31 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 ( -19.6) ( -15.7) I 8.5) ( 12.71 4.81 ( 9.71 ( 16.4) ( -17.51 MONTHLY 1975--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY JUNE-JULY ( ( WEEKLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--MAY 14 21 28 289.0 289.9 292.0 636.0 637.6 641.5 499.5 502.6 502.9 1.4 2.5 2.4 433.3 433.7 433.9 347.0 347.7 349.5 86.3 85.9 84.4 7.0 7.8 7.9 4 11 18 25 292.4 294.2 294.1 294.7 643.1 646.3 647.6 649.0 505.7 509.0 509.2 507.3 3.6 5.7 5.0 2.6 434.6 436.2 437.7 438.4 350.7 352.1 353.5 354.3 93.9 84.1 84.1 84.2 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8 293.2 292.0 648.1 647.9 505.2 504.3 1.4 2.8 439.2 439.6 35A.9 355.9 84.3 83.8 6.5 6.6 JUNE JULY 2 P 9 PE - NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. - P PE - .- . PRELIMINARY PARTIALLY ESTIMATED CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC July 11, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept. Open Market Operations 1 RP' Coupon Agency Net Issues Issues (1) (2) (3) (4) 1,217 729 212 280 331 360 981 -976 1975--Jan. -1,102 406 -14 1,097 Feb. -1,015 316 295 714 Mar. 112 1,301 207 -1,758 Apr. May 1,319 197 1,070 50 -2 -97 June -413 958 -6 1974--Nov. Dec. Total - (5) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4/ Member Open Market Factors Bank Borrowing Operations (8) (7) (6) A in reserve categories available res. 5/ Req. res. against (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) U.S.G. and interb. (9) -183 66 A Target available reserves 5/ (10) (11) 204 -81 395 450 327 2,963 -507 -583 201 -2,395 387 -636 -313 1,548 258 341 965 309 -1,241 -243 -499 -344 -1,627 -670 -136 53 - 41 -773 -13 5,442 -3,357 7,829 -3,207 2,229 5,064 4 -50 -1,767 -5,747 -1,855 -1,317 -3,165 215 3,442 2,739 393 -766 -495 54 4 414 -739 495 -170 -102 594 215 290 July Aug. -1,017 202 -1,075 67 -6 70 253 -478 -2 40 110 -1,062 3,939 8 3p 9 3p -2,9 112 -385 462 - 6 5p 1,832 683 -1, -2,692 -648 7 14 21 28 274 425 244 -91 -50 .-- -27 -71 -2,827 -698 3,932 -1,101 -2,580 -223 4,175 -1,262 966 -905 1,155 -522 -207 -17 105 -38 June 4 11 18 25 -724 -582 222 9 333 -6 -- -4,652 -3,571 4,054 3,968 -5,383 -4,153 4,276 4,310 -1,364 -4,745 1,107 2,678 July 2 15 624 -1 -4,183 -3,545 -- - -5,357 -5,549 1975--May 9 -192 77 6p 2,449 -252 -790 -68 -15 -2,538 -419 768 -140p 3 4 0p 399p -200p -691p 16 23 30 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ to from end-of-period portfolio Represents change in System's Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. accounts. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. meeting. FOMC 1975 17, June the at adopted target the reflects July and June for change Target Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. during the month. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted P - Preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC July 11, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Period H 1972 1973 1974 - 490 7,232 1,280 1 Net Purchases 3/ 1Within Over Total 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 1,059 864 106 195 138 430 726 371 229 165 130 69 169 285 61 584 508 - -- -2 -- -2 3,076 53 230 -376 210 -710 -404 1,620 1,097 714 -1,758 -2 --- 2,387 150 539 5,442 -3,357 -1,855 -2,827 - 698 3,932 -1,101 109 54 555 62 73 302 - 102 215 131 45 492 1975--Qtr. I Qtr. II -2,093 1,086 33 218 795 973 625 454 312 273 1,765 1,917 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. -1,205 -1,003 115 14 - 305 129 61 113 26 74 406 316 19 361 451 212 1,043 Apr. May June 1,295 143 -352 148 50 20 485 -488 274 -180 164 -109 1,070 -797 -- - -- 16 50 - - 50 - 167 2 - 121 166 -- S-- -- Net 5/ 46 120 439 118 -704 -560 248 Total 10 1,582 1,415 1,747 232 9 5-10 10 167 129 196 49 July 2 Over 1-5 5 - 10 539 500 434 160 June 4 11 18 25 / 1 - 5 789 579 797 874 945 43 7 14 21 28 et PurchaAan Wl thin 1-year Net Change Outright Holdings Total 4/ 1-vear 87 207 320 1974--Qtr. II Qtr. 1 Qtr. IN 1975--ay __I Federal Agencies Treasury Coupons Treasury Bills Net Purchases 2/ S - - - - - 16 -153 113 4 335 67 3.082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 46 - 154 870 1,203 691 2,188 2,620 1,402 - --- --- --- 247 476 244 -- -- -- -162 -731 358 986 238 - -- -- -- - - -- -- -- -582 52 333 -- -- -- 222 342 -4,652 -3,571 4,054 3,968 57 462 - - 638 -192 -4,183 -5,357 - S - -- -- - - - - - 23 30 end-of-period to end-of-period. 1/ Change from 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions with market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 4/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects: changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 5/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC July 11, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Coupon Issues (2) Member Bank Reserve Positions Dealer Positions Corporate Bonds (3) Basic Reserve Deficit 38 Others 8 New York (9) (8) Borrowing at FRB* Seasonal Total (7) (6) Excess** Reserves (5) Municipal Bonds (4) Period Bills (1) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 253 0 384 27 628 -168 3,906 647 176 13 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 -6,046 1975--High Low 6,094 1,586 2,845 532 464 0 389 48 577 -42 871 18 22 5 -7,387 -1,757 -11,390 - 8,070 1974--June July Aug. Sept. 580 457 1,758 2,309 9 -214 398 552 66 14 33 23 124 79 108 85 204 162 197 180 3,020 3,075 3,337 3,282 134 149 164 139 -4,445 -3,522 -4,231 -4,235 - Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,174 2,900 2,985 654 1,608 1,836 25 83 175 166 268 149 197 205 258 1,813 1,252 727 117 67 32 -4,602 -6,322 -5,960 - 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 79 166 195 147 198 195 398 147 96 14 11 7 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302 Apr. May June 2,737 4,744 *5,201 1,617 1,752 *1,351 35 91 89 115 170 118 143 155 220p 110 66 227p 6 9 l1p -4,079 -3,965 -5,430 -10,426 - 9,567 - 9,344 7 14 21 28 4,129 4,470 4,728 4,658 532 2,144 2,352 2,109 80 55 144 85 130 190 256 166 311 -1 71 164 34 17 121 84 10 8 8 10 -2,601 -4,743 -4,093 -3,990 - 9,175 - 9,562 -10,198 - 9,302 June 4 11 18 25 4,634 5,013 *6,094 *5,289 1,445 1,163 *1,286 *1,282 4 13 143 197 175 77 121 99 334 -36 334 121p 84 38 78 188p 9 11 10 10p -4,709 -6,335 -6,006 -6,013 - 9,295 -10,957 -11,131 - 9,639 July 2 9 16 23 30 *4,197 *4,029 *1,791 *1,310 108 141p 394p 8 7p 871p 22 3p 15p 13p -5,754p -6,639 - 8,23 p -10,030p 1975--May NOTE: 58 98p -----.-. diI.4.J. i h ha 411o fnancedo by rpu,,rchase 9,920 9,555 9,224 8,250 ----Government security dealer tracing positions are on a commitment bbasis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserves less net Federal funds in syndicate, excluding trading positions. purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL -T- ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. 4 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) July 11, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) ~ ___Long-Term Short-Term Federal Funds Fud Period (1) 13.55 1974--High Low 8.45 90-day 90, (2) 1-year 1-ea (3) 90-119 Day Commercial Paper Pa (4) 9.63 6.53 9.54 6.39 12.25 7.88 12.25 Treasury Bills CD's New Issue-NYC Aaa Utility New 60-89 Day (5) 8.00 90-119 Day Issue Issue Recently Offered Ofee Municipal Bond Burver .. , U.S. Government (20-yr. Constant Maturiytv auiv.. (7) (8) 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 (10) 8.68 7.40 (6) FNMA Auctions Yields Yields. (11) 10.59 8.43 High Low 7.70 7.02 5.02 6.69 5.46 9.34 5.38 9.00 5.13 5.25 9.00 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 8.41 7.63 9.47 8.78 1974--June 11.93 7.90 8.16 11.18 11.06 10.88 9.38 9.40 8.10 9.54 July Aug. Sept. 12.92 12.01 11.34 7.55 8.96 8.06 8.04 8.88 8.52 11.93 11.79 11.36 11.83 11.69 11.19 11.83 11.91 11.38 10.20 10.07 10.38 10.04 10.19 10.30 8.26 8.60 8.60 10.25 10.58 Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.06 7.59 7.29 6.79 9.55 9.35 8.95 9.18 8.78 9.00 9.33 8.72 8.84 10.16 9.21 9.53 10.23 8.53 7.46 7.47 7.15 9.34 9.56 8.37 7.99 7.91 10.22 9.87 9.53 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 6.27 5.56 5.70 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 9.45 9.09 9.38 7.88 7.71 7.99 9.25 8.93 Apr. May June 5.49 5.22 5.55 5.61 5.23 5.34 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.11 5.70 5.67 5.85 5.44 5.34 6.03 5.63 5.51 9.67 9.63 9.20 9.66 9.65 9.06 9.27 9.33 8.36 8.22 8.04 5.42 5.20 5.41 5.18 5.10 5.22 6.21 5.90 5.77 5.76 5.98 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.88 5.75 5.50 5.40 9.65 9.54 9.61 9.62 9.60 9.61 9.66 9.70 8.25 8.18 8.16 8.24 9.29 5.79 5.63 5.53 6.13 5.43 5.55 5.53 5.78 5.25 5.40 5.38 5.50 5.75 9.41 9.53 9.22 9.14 9.41 8.16 7.95 7.99 8.07 9.14 5.25 5.25 5.63 5.88 6.00 6.00 6.13 9.62 9.30 37 9. p 8.13 8 19 . p 9.07 9.45 1975--May 5.13 5.14 June 5.90 5.60 5.38 4 5.24 11 18 25 5.15 5.31 5.72 5.23 5.12 5.02 5.63 2 9 16 23 30 6.31 6.06 5.94 6.06 6.45 6.51 6.20 6.28 Daily--July 3 10 6,24 6.00 6.04 6.52 6.51 6.25 6.25 July 5.88p 8.97 9.35 8.95 9.07 9.37 9.38p 9.84 8.82 9.10 9.25 9.06 --- NOTE: P-- Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Preliminary. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES E RESERVES Period Total No on borrowed 1 2 Available to Support Pvt Deposits 3 BANK CREDIT MONEY STOCK MEASURES MEASURES Total Adl Loans Credit and MI M proxy Invest2 ments 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 1975 JULY 11, M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 8 9 10 11 12 12.9 11.9 8.9 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974 10.8 7.8 A.6 7.5 7.2 10.8 10.1 9.2 8.9 11.3 10.4 10.2 14.6 13.5 9.2 8.7 6.1 4.8 11.1 8.8 7.2 13.2 8.8 6.8 14.0 10.6 9.0 12.9 11.2 9.1 8.9 13.2 8.2 6.8 9.6 4.7 8.3 7.6 7.8 8.4 10.0 10.9 6.7 11.0 6.9 11.0 6.5 SEMI-ANNUALLY. 2ND HALF 1973 15.0 3.1 6.3 3.1 8.7 5.5 7.9 5.4 5.4 3.4 6.8 11.0 13.0 10.8 10.7 10.7 19.1 9.1 0.8 20.4 6.7 4.2 12.0 7.3 -1.0 7.0 1.0 5.3 7.9 4.2 6.7 6.8 3.9 6.9 11.6 4.9 8.4 11.6 5.6 8.1 11.6 6.3 6.6 -1.4 0.0 -4.7 0.8 3.1 7.6 4.3 2.3 2.4 11.2 8.4 13.3 10.4 15.3 9.3 12.0 8.3 12.8 13.1 7.6 21.6 -3.9 7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6 -7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.7 51.8 18.4 34.8 15.7 8.6 10.8 7.8 -1.5 -2.7 6.5 13.6 9.2 6.4 4.2 10.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 11.2 5.0 -0.2 5.2 7.6 5.8 17.6 11.1 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.5 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 9.1 4.8 3.8 3.0 7.1 7.7 5.9 11.7 7.1 3.7 4.0 8.0 6.4 10.7 11.5 8.0 4.2 4.4 8.8 5.8 9.5 11.3 8.5 5.3 5.0 8.5 3.6 7.4 7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.5 10.7 19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.0 5.1 0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.2 9.6 3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.4 15.3 3.5 2.8 6.7 2.4 3.8 0.9 -9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.1 18.8 6.5 10.5 14.0 11.9 14.6 18.8 8.7 8.7 10.4 9.4 10.3 15.8 8.9 7.3 8.4 9.7 9.9 18.4 8.1 7.3 8.5 9.7 9.9 19.3 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 11.0 5.9 0.5 21.0 12.6 4.9 1ST HALF 1975 -3.5 -0.7 -2.0 1974 2ND QTR. 3R0 QTR. 1974 4TH QTR. 1974 20.5 8.3 3.5 -0.1 5.5 35.9 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. -8.3 1.4 14.5 5.4 QUARTERLY: 1975 1975 8.0 MONTHLY: 1974--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P 10.9 18.2 4.6 I. NOTES: RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREME P - PRELIMINARY. L AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED -I APPENDIX MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES 1-B TABLE JULY 11, 1975 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period Total Non-o borrowed 1 2 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVE RESERVES Available to Support Pvt. Deposits 3 Adj. Credit proxy 4 Total Loans and Invest. ments 5 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLYs 1972 1973 30,330 32,689 29,281 31,391 28,039 30,610 406.4 448*7 559.0 634.6 255.8 271.5 525.7 572.2 844.9 919.6 569.7 636.0 888.8 983.4 985.5 1095.4 1013.1 1133.6 34,479 31,473 32,536 481.2 682.9 280.0 597.1 955.8 678.4 1037.1 1155.4 1196.1 JULY AUG. SEPT. 35,101 34,988 359191 31,800 31,652 319909 32,770 33,064 33,278 484.9 487.5 489.2 692.9 699.2 695.2 280.4 280.5 280.7 599.6 601.9 603.4 959.6 962.6 965.0 683.2 685.7 688.2 1043.2 1046.4 1049.9 1163.1 1167.2 11,71.5 1204.6 1209.9 1214.9 OCT. 35,099 33,286 33,236 488.3 696.0 281.6 607.6 970.7 693.8 1056.9 NOV. 35,048 33,795 1180.1 1223.5 33,160 491.2 697.4 283.6 611.6 976.9 697.1 1062.5 1185.8 1227.2 DEC. 35,503 349776 33,341 494.3 691.9 284.4 613.5 981.7 703.8 1072.0 1195.2 1234.8 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 359737 34,925 34,764 35,339 349777 34,658 33,341 33,103 32,951 495.8 495.7 498.1 693.9 695.5 699.4 282.2 283.5 286.1 615.5 620.3 626.4 987.0 995.6 1007.2 708.3 712.4 716.1 1079.8 1087.6 1097.0 1204.1 1211.4 1219.9 1243.1 1250*7 1259.6 APR. MAY JUNE 35,003 34,581 34,888 34,892 349515 34,661 33,032 32,752 33,014 500.2 501.2 507.6 700.8 703.0 703.5 287.1 289.7 294.1 630.4 637.3 647.3 1017.2 1029.6 1045.7 718.8 722.9 731.4 1105.6 1115.1 1129.8 1229.8 1239.9 1258.9 1269.8 1280.3 1300.9 34,437 34,617 34,311 34,420 34,496 349227 32,601 32,649 32,742 499.5 502.6 502.9 289.0 289.9 292.0 636.0 637.6 641.5 722.3 723.5 725.9 MONTHLY: 1974--JUNE P WEEKLY: 1975--MAY 14 21 28 NOTES: 1/ P - JUNE 4 11 18 25P 34,682 34,047 35,160 35,045 34,598 34,009 35,083 34,857 32,987 32,754 33,165 329971 505.7 509.0 509.2 507.3 292.4 294.2 294.1 294.7 643.1 646.3 647.6 649.0 727.0 730.4 731.7 733.2 JULY 2P 35,629 349758 33,249 505.2 293.2 648.1 732.4 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 2-A JULY 11, 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency Demand o Period Deosts De Total Time Curnc Deposits Time Other her Mutual Savings Bank and S & L s 1 2 3 Credit Union Shares CD's Savings Bonds Short o Paer Gov't ICommercial U Term Securities S Sharesj/ 6 7 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 8 s 9 10 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 1974 8.2 8.3 10.2 8.9 5.5 3.1 15.7 16.2 15.1 13.5 11.4 9.4 16.7 8.5 5.6 18.0 13.9 11.8 31.0 45.3 41.5 0.5 30.9 15.7 15.0 38.8 3.4 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1973 7.8 3.8 11.4 11.6 6.3 9.4 10.6 27.0 70.7 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1974 1974 9.7 10.2 5.2 1.0 18.6 10.5 10.9 7.6 5.9 5.1 13.0 9.9 54.9 22.1 19.2 11.2 12.5 -5.4 1ST HALF 1975 9.4 6.0 8.5 14.6 16.2 18.2 13.9 12.1 1974 1974 1974 8.2 8.0 12.1 6.6 -1.1 3.2 21.3 9.1 11.7 8.8 7.1 7.9 3.9 3.1 6.9 15.9 7.6 12.0 78.2 17.2 25.9 19.9 18.2 4.0 10.1 25.6 -34.2 1ST QTR. 1975 2ND QTR. 1975 9.4 9.2 0.2 11.8 10.1 6.8 13.6 15.2 13.1 18.6 20.+ 15.2 -2.2 -25.4 -7.3 35.8 1.0 23.2 1974--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 5.6 3.7 13.0 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9 11.8 1.1 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7 18.0 13.3 7.1 6.8 13.5 4.4 16.8 11.8 7.9 8.6 4.5 11.9 7.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 7.1 9.2 18.6 4.6 9.1 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2 42.8 33.9 2.9 14.3 19.8 -9.7 67.4 17.1 27.3 14.4 12.2 24.1 -2.0 -9.9 5.9 23.6 31.8 19.7 2.8 -55.3 -52.2 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P 5.3 10.6 12.2 1.7 12.1 13.7 -13.9 3.9 10.6 5.0 10.5 19.7 18.9 8.2 3.1 4.7 3.9 11.6 15.3 12.6 12.5 9.9 11.5 17.6 18.4 17.1 19.5 17.5 17.2 25.4 20.8 16.3 8.1 31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -19.6 15.9 -15.7 -21.9 18.2 6.0 81.5 -13.7 QUARTERLY: 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY: NOTES: -3.3 10.6 15.0 19.3 -15.2 6.1 12.2 12.1 9.0 47.5 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. JULY 11, APPENDIX TABLE 2-B 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency Demand Deosts Time Mutual Total Time Deposits Deposits Other Than CD's ans Bank and L andS & L Short r Union Shares Shares CD' Shares ________________ 1 2 3 4 5 56.9 61.6 198.9 209.9 313.8 364.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 6 7 Commercial Term Savngs Bondsyy U.S. Gov't Papery Securities 1ecuties 8 9 10 Non deposit Funds Funds Gov't Demand Demand 11 12 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.8 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.6 38.3 4.3 6.6 5.6 3.9 MONTHLY: 1974--JUNE 64.6 215.4 398.4 317.1 332.4 26.2 81.3 61.2 57.1 40.7 8.4 5.3 JULY AUG. SEPT. 64.8 65.5 65.9 215.6 215.0 214.8 402.8 405.2 407.5 319.2 321.5 322.7 333.7 334.2 335.0 26.3 26.5 26.7 83.6 83.8 84.8 61.5 61.7 62.0 58.4 59.1 59.7 41.5 42.6 43.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 4.2 6.2 6.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 66.5 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.2 216.5 412.1 413.6 419.4 325.9 328.0 329.1 336.2 338.2 340.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.6 62.8 60.9 60.8 60.3 43.4 41.4 39.6 7.9 7.6 8.4 3.7 4.6 1.9 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 68.2 68.8 69.5 214.0 214.7 216.6 426.0 428.9 430.0 333.3 336.8 340.3 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.9 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.1 60.3 59.2 39.1 39.3 39.7 7.6 6.5 6.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 APR. MAY JUNE 69.6 70.3 71.1 217.5 219.4 223.0 431.7 433.1 437.3 343.3 347.6 353.2 357.4 362.5 368.4 29.4 29.8 30.0 88.4 85.5 84.1 64.1 64.4 64.6 60.1 60.4 64.5 40.1 40.4 42.0 6.7 7.4 7.0 2.1 2.1 3.8 70.2 70.5 70.8 218.8 219.4 221.2 433.3 433.7 433.9 347.0 347.7 349.5 86.3 85.9 84.4 7.0 7.8 7.9 1.4 2.5 2.4 P WEFKLY: 1975--MAY 14 21 28 JUNE 4 11 18 25P 70.6 71.1 71.2 71.4 221.8 223.1 222.9 223.3 434.6 436.2 437.7 438.4 350.7 352.1 353.5 354.3 83.9 84.1 84.1 84.2 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8 3.6 5.7 5.0 2.6 JULY 2P 71.1 222.2 439.2 354.9 84.3 6.5 1.4 0NOTES: 1/ -I - - - ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) (Revised Series) M1 M2 M 1973 I 3.4 6.8 7.3 9.1 8.8 10.4 II 11.3 7.3 10.6 8.6 10.5 9.1 III 0.6 5.5 5.6 7.8 5.2 7.5 8.7 5.0 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 II 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 III 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 IV 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 IV 1974 1975 Q I I 2.4 8.4 6.4 10.4 8.3 II 11.2 13.3 11.3 15.3 13.7 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in of the quarters. all three months Appendix Table IV SHORT-TERM OPERATING GUIDES* Total Reserves 1975 June July August 1975 July August July-August Nonborrowed Reserves RPD Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. 34,888 35,004 34,790 34,888 34,991 34,737 34,888 34,984 34,686 34,661 34,757 34,640 34,661 34,707 34,487 34,661 34,662 34,246 33,014 32,916 33,038 33,014 32,903 32,985 33,014 32,897 32,934 4.0 -7.3 3.5 -8.7 3.3 -10.2 -1.7 -2.6 -3.5 3.3 -4.0 1.6 -7.6 0.0 -14.4 -3.6 4.4 -0.4 -3.0 -7.2 0.4 Excess Reserves Alt. A 1975 * Alt. B June 220 220 July 185 175 August 200 175 Adjusted for changes in Alt. C reserve requirements. -4.3 1.3 -0.5 -1.5 Borrowings Alt. 220 150 -4.0 3.0 150 A Alt. B Alt. 227 227 285 320 250 440 C C 

Federal Reserve (1975, July 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750715

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750715,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750715},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}