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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC May 16, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC May 16, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 expanded at an annual rate of about 5.9 per cent in April, 1/ and current data suggest about a 9 per cent growth rate for May. Thus, for the two-month target period M1 appears to be growing at around a 7½ per cent annual rate, a shade below the mid-point of the Committee's range of tolerance. The higher rate of growth in M1 for May in part reflects the substantial volume of tax rebates being disbursed by the Treasury. Growth in time deposits other than large money market CD's has been somewhat slower than expected, 9 and M 2 appears to be expanding at an annual rate of around per cent over the April-May period, the lower end of its range of tolerance. These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revision 1/ Revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published this coming Thursday. in the series (based in large part on the results of the December call report and new data for foreign agencies and branches) lowered M1 by about $700 million in March of 1975 and as a result first quarter M 1 growth at an annual rate was lowered from 3.5 to 2.4 per cent. Growth in M2 and M3, however, was little changed by the revision. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2 following the charts) are based The new and old series are compared in Appendix Table VI. on the new series. -2Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over April-May period 1/ Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Range of Tolerance Latest Estimates M1 6-1/2--9 7.5 M2 9-1/2-11-3/4 9.4 RPD 1-1/2--4-3/4 -1.8 4-3/4--5-3/4 Avg. for statement week ending 5.54 23 Apr. 30 5.71 5.42 7 May 5.20 14 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) (2) The bank credit proxy appears to be expanding at an annual With business demand rate of about 4 per cent over the April-May period. for short-term credit remaining weak and the spread between commercial paper rates and the bank prime rate continuing relatively wide, bank loans to businesses contracted further in April and early May. The weakness in loan demand along with the strength in time and savings deposit flows led banks to continue adding to their holdings of Government securities, while allowing further runoffs in CD's. Over the first 4 months of 1975 Government security portfolios have expanded by about $16 billion, while CD's have dropped by about $6 billion. Banks have apparently also found it attractive to advance funds to their branches abroad; preliminary reports from branches indicate that liabilities to their head offices in the U.S. about $2 increased by billion in the first quarter. (3) Following the April 15 FOMC meeting, the Account Manager initially sought reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate -3In following weeks, with incoming data of 5½ per cent or a shade lower. on the monetary aggregates suggesting that M1 growth over the April-May target period would be in tolerance, the lower half of the Committee's range of the Account Manager sought easier money market conditions. In doing so, however, the Manager tried to avoid aggressive operations that might distort market expectations about monetary policy during the course of the Treasury's large May refinancing. In the statement week just ended, when the Desk sought a Federal funds rate declining into the 5-5¼ per cent area, an average rate of 5.20 per cent was realized. (4) Short-term interest rates, after showing little change in late April, have since declined 25-50 basis points. Most recently, 3-month bills have traded around 5 per cent--the lowest level since December 1972-and 3-month CD's and commercial paper around 5-3/4 per cent. These markdowns of short rates have reflected the decline in the funds rate, against a background of continuing weakness in short-term credit demands, to more moderate money growth in data. the return April, and somewhat disappointing economic Market reaction to the decline in the discount rate to 6 per cent was mild. (5) Bond yields rose in declined 10-25 basis points. Treasury announcement that its the last half of April, but have since The recent rally began following the May 1 borrowing needs over the May-June period would be $5 billion less than previously stated, and it sustained by the decline of short-term rates. has since been Against this background, the Treasury's sale of $7 billion of coupon issues thus far in May has gone smoothly. The well publicized problems with respect to New York City have led to a virtual halt in trading in New York City issues, but have -4thus far had only minor spill-over effects on the municipal market as a whole. (6) Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions continued to expand at a rapid pace in April, reflecting lower market interest rates and the placement of tax refunds. Growth in deposits at S&L's and MSB's combined is estimated at an annual rate of 15 per cent in April, the same as the firstquarter experience. While mortgage lenders have remained cautious, commit- ments appear to have risen somewhat further in March and April. Mortgage market interest rates have risen somewhat over the past few weeks. (7) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods. Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. Past Twelve Months Apr.'75 over Apr.'74 Past Six Months Apr.'75 over Oct.'74 Past Three Months Apr.'75 over Jan.'75 Past Month Apr.'75 over Mar.'75 8.6 4.0 -.5 -8.2 8.4 10.8 9.3 9.7 -5.0 8.3 8.9 4.7 -1.2 -3.6 3.2 4.8 3.8 3.9 7.0 4.2 7.2 7.0 7.5 9.7 7.7 6.8 7.5 9.5 12.2 11.7 Calendar Year 1974 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) M4 (2 plus CD's) 10.7 8.4 7.2 5.9 4.4 3 plus CD's) 9.0 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.2 10.2 6.6 4.8 3.5 4.8 9.2 4.4 1.8 3.9 2.2 2.2 1.2 .4 -1.4 -1.4 .4 .4 .2 M5 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/ -- .1 Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative (8) short-run operating ranges of tolerance for key monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. More detailed figures on monetary aggregates, including growth rates for six month periods comprising the second and third quarters, are shown in the table on p. 6a. Appendix table V shows associated figures for total reserves, nonborrowed reserves, and RPD's. Alt. B Alt. A Alt. C Ranges of tolerance for May-June M1 8-10 7½-9½ 7-9 M2 10½-12½ 10-12 9-11 3 -5 2¼-4¼ 1¼ -3¼ 4-5 4¾-5¾ 5½-6½ RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) (9) The ranges of tolerance summarized above are generally consistent with the longer-run 12-month growth ranges adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. included: These growth ranges for the March '75-March '76 period M1, 5-7½ per cent; M2 , 8½-10½ per cent; M3 , 10-12 per cent; and the bank credit proxy, 6½-9½ per cent. short-run operating targets, In all three of the alternatives for the two-month monetary growth rates are above longer-run ranges, mainly reflecting the temporary impact of large tax rebates paid out by the Treasury in May and June. In some cases, 6-month growth rates are also above longer-run objectives. (10) Each of the alternative short-run operating targets would, of course, imply different patterns of interest rate change and monetary -6afor Key Alternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Monetary Aggregates Aggregates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A M2 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Mar. Apr. May June 286.1 287.1 289.4 291.6 286.1 287.1 289.3 291.2 286.1 287.1 289.2 290.9 626.4 630.4 636.2 642.7 626.4 630.4 636.0 641.8 626.4 630.4 635.8 641.1 1007. 1017.( 1028.2 1041.3 1007.2 1017.0 1027.8 1039.6 1007,2 1017.0 1027.4 1038.0 Sept. 297.9 296.4 294.9 661.5 658.0 655.0 1077.2 1071.1 1066.1 Mar. 304.0 304.0 304.0 685.9 685.9 685.9 1097.8 1097.8 1097.8 M1 1975 1976 1975 QII Mar.'75-Sept.75 8.3 7.1 7.1 7.2 1975 9.6 9.1 9.2 7.9 QIII May June 7.7 8.6 6.7 5.5 6.2 8.8 7.1 Growth Rates t104 .8 11.7 11.2 10.1 10.1 11.0 12.3 10.7 10.9 9.4 8.7 9.1 10.3 10.0 M3 Alt. B S 13.5 13. 13.9 13.2 15. 3 Alt. C 12.9 12.1 12.7 12.2 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.8 12.3 12.4 Credit Proxy M4 Alt. B 716.2 Alt. C 716.2 Alt. A M5 Alt B 1097.0 1097.0 718.8 721.9 727.0 718.8 721.8 726.5 1105.4 1114.1 1126.3 1105.4 1113.7 1124.7 Alt. C 1097.0 1105.4 1113.3 1123.3 June Alt. A 716.2 718.8 722.1 727.6 Sept. 744.9 742.3 740.2 1160.6 1155.4 1151.2 520.1 S 518.0 516.4 1976 Mar. 779.9 779.9 779.9 1212.2 537.5 S 537.9 537.9 1975 QII 1212.2 1212.2 Growth Rates 10.1 10.7 12.2 10.9 11.6 10.7 1975 Mar. Apr. May QIII Mar.'75-Sept.'75 1975 May June 6.4 9.5 8.0 6.0 8.4 7.3 5.5 9.1 5.2 5.0 8.5 7.8 5.8 7.5 6.7 9.4 13.1 9.0 11.9 9.6 9.9 9.9 8.6 10.8 Alt. A S Alt. B 498.1 498.1 1 500.1 L 500.1 501.7 S 501.5 506. 3 505.7 Alt. C 498.1 500.1 501.4 505.3 6.6 10.9 8.8 6.1 8.0 5.8 8.8 7.4 3.8 3.4 10.0 3.1 9.3 11.( 9.7 -7Alternative A, which contemplates aggregate growth as the year progresses. a near-term easing of money market conditions, and an 8 per cent rate of growth in M1 over the second and third quarters, would imply a considerable turn-around of interest rates later this year if growth in the aggregates over the 12-month period is to be kept at around the mid-points of the indicated longer-term ranges, assuming the GNP projection is correct. Alternative B implies a somewhat smaller rise in interest rates later. Alternative C involves rising interest rates over the near-term, lower growth in the monetary aggregates in the second and third quarters, and hence less upward interest rate pressure later. (11) near the 5-5 The Federal funds rate range for alternative B is centered per cent area in which funds have been most frequently trading in recent days. Given this funds rate, M1 in the May-June period is expected to increase at a 7½-9½ per cent annual rate. The rate of growth in M1 is expected to moderate in the third quarter, even though nominal GNP is projected to expand markedly, as the public reduces balances temporarily swollen by tax refunds. For the second and third quarters combined, M1 under this alternative is cent annual rate. indicated to expand at about a 7 per M2 over the same period would be expected to expand at about a 10 per cent annual rate, as inflows of consumer-type time and savings deposits to banks remain sizable. (12) If the Federal funds rate shows little change over the next few weeks, we would expect other market interest rates to fluctuate within a narrow range. After the Treasury auctions $1 billion of 2-year notes -8next week, it will have essentially completed its new cash financing for this half year (apart from continuing cash additions to bill auctions through mid-June). The corporate and state and local bond calendars remain sizable, but recent issues have been accorded good receptions, and the steepness of the yield curve may continue to encourage some investors to acquire longer-term issues. Business credit demands on banks and in the commercial paper market are expected to remain weak, at least into early summer, as corporations continue to restructure balance sheets and liquidate inventories. (12) Credit markets remain highly sensitive, however. U.S. Government security dealer positions have risen substantially in the wake of recent financing activity, with positions totaling about $8¼ billion on May 15 (or $2-3/4 billion more than a month ago). Under the circumstances, and given the very recent decline in the funds rate, any significant increase in the rate would probably lead to fairly sharp upward adjustments of interest rates as market expectations abruptly change. (13) Alternative C contemplates a rise of the Federal funds rate into a 5½-6½ per cent range. Under this option, the rise in short- term interest rates may be substantial over the next few weeks--with the 3-month bill rate rising into the 6-7 per cent area--and long-term rates would probably also rise significantly. It is expected that such a tightening of money market conditions would lead to M growth over the 1 second and third quarters at around a 6 per cent annual rate. As market interest rates rise, net inflows of time and savings deposits to banks and thrift institutions would also diminish, as compared with alternative B. Mortgage market conditions would certainly tighten further. -9(14) Alternative A involves a further easing of money market conditions, which would likely be accompanied by further downward adjustments in market interest rates more generally. Declines in bond rates might be rather limited, however, as corporate borrowers would be expected to accelerate offerings in order to take advantage of a more favorable market environment. Over the second and third quarters, M1 growth would be projected at around 8 per cent at an annual rate, while growth in M2 might be at an 11 per cent rate. A substantially lower rate of monetary growth would be required in the fourth and first quarters unless the Committee were to raise its longer-run targets, and, as noted earlier, this would probably require a marked upward readjustment in interest rates later this year. (15) Securities markets generally, and the municipal market in particular, have shown little reaction thus far to the prospect of a default by New York City on its outstanding notes. It is possible, however, that an actual default could have wider market repercussions if investors back away from other issues judged to involve a fair degree of capital risk. In addition, there may be diminished investor con- fidence in institutions with large holdings of New York City obligations. Should markets become very unsettled, the Manager might need to engage in stabilizing operations, taking account of the customary directive language regarding "developments in domestic and international financial markets", in which case the aggregate specifications might temporarily have to be disregarded. -10Proposed directive (16) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. In all three alternatives, it is proposed to delete the reference to Treasury financing because the regular mid-May financing has been completed. As will be noted, alternatives A and B refer to growth in monetary aggregates "on average in recent months." Over the first 4 months of this year, growth rates (using revised data) were 2.9, 8.3, and 10.8 per cent for M1, M 2, and M 3 , respectively. Alternative A forth the To implement this policy, while taking account of[DEL: of] and financing Treasury coming developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve somewhat] bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: more rapid growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than has occurred on average in recent months. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: forth the of] and financing Treasury coming developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with somewhat more rapid growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than has occurred on average in recent months. -11Alternative C forth the To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: of and financing Treasury coming developments in domestic and inter- national financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank more somewhat reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: rapid]MODERATE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead months]. recent in average on occurred has than [DEL: CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 5/16/75 CHART 1 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 38 38 4 growth for Apr -M %% / 34 1% % growt 45/14/75). 32 J 1 I I F M 1974 30 M J 1974 S D M J 1975 S D RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios I A 1975 .f CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 5/16/75 CHART 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -I 300 1295 280 I I I Illllllllllllllj I I I I I I I I Il I 1111 290 ,260 1- 285 ER MONEY SUPPLY M2 280 640 620 600 11 %% growth 580 S60 0 1974 1975 i S J F , M 1975 A 1 ,, I M CHART 3 5/16/75 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 520 -500 N1AK.' - 480 - 460 I RESERVES I, I " BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ~ 39 - 37 TOTAL 35 - V I 33 i I II I I 1 I I 1 1974 1975 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinmuties associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios 5/16/75 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT 14 INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT FUNDS 1974 1975 1974 1975 1974 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC ABLE BANK RESERVES MAY 16, 1975 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) AV RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLEE FOR PRIVATE Period I REQUIRED RESERVES ADJUSTED FSEASONALLY Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Total Required Private Demand 2 3 4 5 6 34,414 33,179 32,775 33,186 (32,786) 35,820 35,006 34,845 35,088 (34,809) 35,421 34,858 34,739 34,978 (34,770) 35,673 34,812 34,645 34,926 (34,632) NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA 1 AGGREGATE RESERVES Perid Other Time CD's and Gov't. and Nondeposits Interbank Deposits 7 8 9,117 8,996 8,868 8,796 ( 8,759) 4,966 4,902 4,727 4,685 I 4,557) 9 MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 33,423 33,184 33,031 33,119 (32,930) 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY 19,199 19,095 19,236 19,476 (19,438) 2,392 1,820 1,814 1,969' 11,878) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 19.1 9.1 0.8 20.5 8.3 3.6 -0.1 5.6 35.9 19.8 8.4 2.9 1975--IST QTR. -4.7 -8.3 -1.4 -7.7 2.2 0.0 5.3 -4.2 9.7 11.0 6.5 -7.6 MONTHLY 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY ( 0.0 -8.6 -5.5 3.2 -6.8) ( -1.8) ( 8.4 -9.5) 19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.3 I -7.1) 4 -0.6) S0.5) 8.0 -27.3 -5.5 11.8 -29.0 -5.8 9.7 ( -10.1) ( -0.2) -14.9 8.9 15.0 -2.3) 10.4 -15.9 -17.1 -9.7 -5.0) 6.3) -7.4) -6.5 ( I WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1975--MAR. 19 26 NOTE: 32,737 33,107 32,641 32,904 34,579 34,923 34,412 34,768 34,559 34,779 19,156 19,424 8,844 8,871 4,717 4,669 1,842 1,816 APR. 2 9 16 23 30 33,164 33,074 33,201 33,095 33,091 33,009 32,682 33,196 33,349 33,569 35,001 34,791 35,139 35,144 35,303 34,950 34,761 35,117 34,979 35,062 34,722 34,673 34,920 35,074 35,095 19,331 19,432 19,444 19,592 19,478 8,872 8,813 8,827 8,764 8,759 4,682 4,712 4,712 4,668 4,647 1,837 1,716 1,937 2,050 2,211 MAY 7 14 33,053 32,696 33,350 32,516 35,078 34,506 35,045 34,489 34,693 34,533 19,344 19,403 8,713 8,742 4,610 4,578 2,025 1,810 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF APRIL 15, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 1.50 TO 4.25 PERCENT FOR THE APRIL-MAY PERIOD. Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASSII-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES MAY 16, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad Period ___(M1) 1 Adjusted Credit U.S. Govt. (M2) Proxy Deposits Total Than CD's CD's Funds 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other Nondeposit Sources of MONTHLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 616.2 621.1 627.4 631.6 (637.2) 282.2 283.8 286.8 288.2 1290.4) 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY 495.8 495.7 498.1 500.1 (501.4) 426.7 429.4 430.3 431.8 1432.6) 0.7 0.6 0.7 2.1 2.1) ( 334.0 337.3 340.5 343.4 (346.7) 92.7 92.1 89.8 88.4 ( 85.9) ( 7.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.0) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 7.0 1.6 4.6 7.9 4.5 7.0 20.4 6.7 4.2 21.3 9.1 12.6 8.8 7.1 9.0 78.2 17.2 25.9 1975--1ST QTR. 3.5 8.5 3.1 9.5 12.7 -2.2 1 -8.9 6.8 12.7 5.9 9.2) 1 3.7 9.5 12.2 8.0 10.6) 3.6 -0.2 5.8 4.8 3.1) 18.3 7.6 2.5 4.2 2.2) ( 14.5 11.9 11.4 10.2 11.5) 31.-9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 ( -33.9) ( 7.5) ( 9.4) 3.2) ( 10.9) ( -26.1) MONTHLY 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY ( ( ( 4.0) WEEKLY LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--MAR. 19 26 286.2 287.3 627.2 628.2 498.0 500.0 0.0 0.7 430.5 431.0 341.0 340.8 89.5 90.1 6.7 6.8 APR. 2 9 16 23 30 287.5 288.3 288.4 287.4 287.5 629.7 631.0 631.8 631.0 632.0 500.0 501.5 501.2 498.6 498.2 0.8 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.9 432.4 432.1 432.0 431.5 431.6 342.2 342.7 343.4 343.6 344.4 90.2 89.4 88.6 87.9 87.2 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.2 6.9 MAY 7 P 14 PE 289.3 289.8 634.3 635.9 499.2 500.5 2.0 1.9 431.5 432.0 345.1 346.1 86.5 85.9 7.0 6.9 -- NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE ---- - ~---~---a-- CURRENT PROJECTIONS. P PE - -~-~-~----ala_-~_-L PRELIMINARY - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED I--- 1975 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II MAY 16, - FOMC 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills &Accept. (1) Open Market Operations 1/ Total Agency RP's Coupon al Issues Issues Net 3/ (2) (3) (4) A in reserve categories Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ available res. 5/ Other4/ Req. res. against Member A pen Market Factors U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) perations Bank Borrowing (5) (6) (7) (8) () (9) Target available reserves 5/ (11) Monthly 1974--Oct. Nov. Dec. -1,727 1,217 729 212 280 -331 360 -243 981 -976 -1,970 2,739 393 -633 327 2,963 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. -1,102 -1,015 112 406 316 1,301 -14 295 207 1,097 714 -1,758 388 309 -136 -636 -1,241 53 Apr. May June 1,319 1,070 2 5,442 7,829 2,229 5 12 19 26 19 -289 431 276 -1,043* -1,043* 928 376 - 2 -- -4,202 -3,417 3,929 3,292 -3,807 -2,666** 3,318** 4,496 193 -3,025** 676** 3,679 - 2 9 16 23 30 -282 -669 416 317 1,231 373 539 530 208 ----- -2,371 -1,906 3,750 - 324 4,189 -2,072 -2,575 4,166 532 5,950 - 493 -2,016 620 2,383 4,097 - 7 14 21 28 274 425 -50 -27 -- -2,827 -698 -2,580 -223 966 -905 - -1,494 - 507 - 583 1,990 201 -2,395 177 -183 66 - 314 204 81 315 395 450 - - 1,548 499 773 258 -356 5 341 -1,627 - 766 965 -670 -495 4 -1,767 52 414 495 -170 110 9 106 12 106 2,721 - 754 -3,361 128 40 - 80 46 61 -353 108 260 104 21 11 144 76 868 1,613 23 -2,481 -3,910p 163 - 90 111 -199 p 108 -334 521 245 220p -208 -15 -951p Illp 26p 21p -219p -830p 313 243 41 - Weekly 1975--Mar. Apr. May 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ - 43 Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for Apr. and May reflects the target adopted at the Apr. 15, 1975 FOMC meeting Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. * Special certificate (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) ** Reflects special certificate purchase. p - preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) MAY 16, 1975 II~ Period 490 7,232 1,280 - 1974--Qtr. Qtr. - 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. -1,205 -1,003 115 Apr. 1,300 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 592 400 1,665 43 -2,093 May 539 500 434 497 1975--Qtr. I Apr. 789 579 797 874 945 Qtr. Qtr. 1975--Mar. 87 207 320 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 33 795 625 148 169 69 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 46 - 154 135 229 165 130 45 103 117 53 318 870 1,203 691 88 2,188 2,620 1,402 - 285 61 584 508 53 - 710 - 404 1,097 714 -1,758 485 274 164 - 2 - 1,070 167 69 - - 1,620 -- 121 19 -- -- - 2 280 361 -- 293 642 410 139 929 41 73 114 -- 2 164 5,442 395 754 -4,202 -3,417 3,929 3,292 1,204 300 42 416 856 -2,371 -1,906 3,750 -324 1,761 4,189 247 476 -2,827 698 - - 669 422 311 1,192 209 7r 168 1in A 55 539 no n -- 50 - -- 50 -- -- - - - -- -- - - -- - -- 1,431 358 986 238 2,390 - 612 442 265 - 1,765 168 101 318 406 316 1,043 - 312 253 244 659 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions with market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects: changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 16, 1975 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions ositions Municipal Bonds j (4) Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB* Basic Reserve Deficit 38 Others 8 New York Total Seasonal (9) (8) (6) (7) Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) Dealer Corporate Bonds (3) 1974-High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 253 0 384 27 628 -168 3,906 647 176 13 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 - 6,046 1975-High Low 4,470 1,586 2,845 532 464 0 389 48 577 -42 609 18 22 5 -7,387 -1,918 -11,390 - 7,976 1974--Apr. May June 1,435 408 580 99 85 9 39 142 66 78 83 124 182 178 204 1,736 2,590 3,020 40 102 134 -3,952 -3,171 -4,445 -11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920 July Aug. Sept. 457 1,758 2,309 -214 398 552 14 33 23 79 108 85 162 197 180 3,075 3,337 3,282 149 164 139 -3,522 -4,231 -4,235 - 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,174 2,900 2,985 654 1,608 1,836 25 83 175 166 268 149 197 205 258 1,813 1,252 727 117 67 32 -4,602 -6,322 -5,960 - 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 79 166 195 147 198 195 398 147 96 14 11 7 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302 Apr. *2,737 *1,617 35 115 167p 11Op 7p -4,11 9 p - 9,71 4 p Period ___ Excess** Reserves (5) 1975--Mar. 5 12 19 26 3,146 3,215 3,139 3,066 2,249 2,159 2,839 2,771 266 290 464 208 117 168 389 107 409 230 20 144 70 60 167 155 9 7 5 7 -6,006 -7,387 -5,548 -4,664 - 9,828 -11,297 -10,899 -10,024 Apr. 2 9 16 23 30 3,287 3,138 *2,772 *2,296 *2,291 2,501 2,336 *1,862 *1,286 * 601 47 13 26 55 0 154 92 91 122 109 279 118 219 70 208p 51 30 22 165 24 1p 7 7 5 6 6p -4,643 -5,716 -5,025 -3,590 -1,918p - 9,617 -11,390 -11,326 -10,893 - 7,976p 7 *4,129 * 532 80 130 38 5p 33p 10p -2,815p - 9,550p 6 4 96 14 *4,470 *2,144 2p 168p -23p 18p 8p , 5p - 9,753p 21 28 Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net issues still Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. May NOTE: *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MAY 16, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Long-Term Short-Term Treasury Bill Federal funds Prlod (1) 90-day (2) -year 1 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day (5) 90-119 Day (6) Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (7) (8) 10.61 10.52 8.05 8.14 Municipal Bond Buyer (9) 7.15 5.16 U.S. Government (10-yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 8.14 6.93 FNMA Auctions Yields (11) 10.59 8.43 1974--High Low 13.55 8.45 9.63 12.25 12.25 6.53 7.88 8.00 12.00 7.88 1975--High Low 7.70 5.20 7.02 5.18 9.34 5.90 9.00 5.50 9.00 5.75 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.08 6.27 8.28 7.27 9.47 8.78 1974--Apr. May June 10.51 11.31 11.93 8.33 8.23 7.90 9.92 10.82 11.18 9.81 10.83 11.06 9.78 10.90 10.88 8.99 8.95 9.24 9.13 9.38 9.40 5.73 6.02 6.13 7.51 7.58 7.54 9.07 9.41 9.54 July Aug. Sept. 12.92 12.01 11.34 7.55 8.96 8.06 11.93 11.79 11.36 11.83 11.69 11.19 11.83 11.91 11.38 10.20. 10.07 10.38 10.04 10.19 10.30 6.68 6.69 6.76 7.81 8.04 8.04 9.84 10.25 10.58 Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.06 9.45 8.53 7.46 9.55 7.47 8.95 7.15 9.18 9.35 8.78 9.00 9.33 8.72 8.84 10.16 9.21 9.53 10.23 9.34 9.56 6.57 6.61 7.05 7.90 7.68 7.43* 10.22 9.87 9.53 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 9.38 6.82 6.39 6.74 7.50* 7.39* 7.73 9.25 8.93 8.82 Apr. 5.49 5.61 6.11 5.85 6.03 9.67 9.66 6.94 8.23 9.06 5 12 19 26 5.88 5.44 5.38 5.53 5.54 5.53 5.42 5.47 5.70 5.64 5.62 5.76 6.25 6.18 5.98 5.90 6.00 5.88 6.13 6.13 8.91 9.27 5.75 5.88 9.60 5.88 6.00 9.60 9.17 9.31 9.41 9.62 6.54 6.65 6.80 6.95 7.50 7.57 7.80 8.05 2 9 16 23 30 5.59 5.44 5.54 5.71 5.58 5.74 5.52 5.57 5.60 6.01 6.48 6.33 6.44 6.44 6.03 6.16 6.18 6.13 6.08 5.75 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.03 5.88 6.13 6.13 6.00 6.00 9.80 9.65 9.51 9.66 9.80 9.70 9.60 9.55 9.71 9.o9 6.93 7.03 6.86 6.97 6.95 8.12 8.21 8.19 8.28 7 14 21 28 5.42 5.20 5.41 5.18 6.21 5.90 5.98 5.75 5.50 5.88 5.75 9.65 9.54p 9.60 9.5 8 p 6.86 6.88 8.09 0 5.37 5.10p 5.43 5.05 6.12 5.87 6.00 Mar. Apr. May Daily--May 6.24 8 5.28 5.90 5.75 8.78 8.85 8.98 9.13 0.2 8. 6p 9.29 8.09 n.a. 7, 8, and 10 Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for The FNMAauction yield is the the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statetment week. average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. 1974 and result * The Treasury has revised its procedure for computing the constant maturity yields. Data have been revised back through December yield. 10-year the of the level in points basis 8 about of increase in an average p- preliminary. NOTE: APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES ' RESERVES _ Nonborrowe orrowed Available to Support Pvt. Perd Period Total BANK CREDIT MEASURES Adj. Credit proxy Deposits 1 Total Loans and Invest- MAY 16, 1975 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M M M M4 M5 M6 M7 9 10 11 12 12.5 11.6 10.7 14.0 10.6 9.0 12.9 11.2 9.1 12.9 11.9 9.2 mentsY 4 2 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Series Revised ANNUALLY: 10.8 7.8 8.6 7.5 7.2 10.8 10.1 9.2 8.9 11.3 10.4 10.2 14.6 13.5 9.2 8.7 6.1 4.8 11.1 8.8 7.2 1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973 6.4 8.8 1.2 13.2 9.8 8.2 13.5 6.8 16.6 9.6 7.4 4.7 9.1 8.3 9.7 7.6 14.2 8.5 13.0 7.8 13.4 8.4 13.1 10.0 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 10.9 5.9 0.5 21.0 17.7 0.2 14.5 5.4 15.0 3.1 6.3 3.1 8.7 5.5 7.9 5.4 13.3 7.5 10.9 6.7 10.9 7.0 11.2 6.9 IST OTR. 1974 2NDO TR. 1974 3RD QTR. 1974 4TH OTR. 1974 1.3 20.5 8.3 3.6 1.1 -0.1 5.6 35.9 17.5 12.0 7.3 -1.1 5.5 7.0 1.0 5.3 9.3 7.9 4.2 6.7 8.9 6.8 3.8 6.9 10.9 15.3 5.8 9.1 11.6 4.9 8.4 9.7 11.8 5.6 8.3 10.3 0.8 8.2 20.4 6.7 4.2 10.0 29.1 -0.4 1ST OTR. 1975 -8.3 -1.4 -4.7 3.1 4.4 2.4 8.4 10.4 7.0 9.3 9.0 8.3 31.3 21.8 7.5 21.7 -3.9 7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6 16.6 -9.1 -7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.8 51.7 18.3 34.7 19.2 21.5 44.7 53.4 -59.7 7.8 29.6 16.9 13.6 9.2 6.4 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6 17.9 12.1 5.7 17.6 11.1 -6.9 1.4 5.0 -9.6 6.1 4.3 7.5 3.7 9.0 4.9 3.6 2.9 7.1 7.7 5.9 18.2 12.5 14.7 8.5 4.4 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.5 14.2 8.8 11.6 7.2 3.5 4.0 8.0 6.2 10.8 15.2 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 8.0 4.5 11.2 5.0 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 11.2 7.9 4.2 4.5 8.8 5.9 10.0 15.2 8.8 11.2 8.6 5.4 5.3 8.4 4.7 8.3 3.6 -0.2 5.8 4.8 3.6 2.8 6.7 2.2 -9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 6.5 10.5 14.0 11.7 7.7 6.9 6.4 4.4 8.7 8.7 10.4 9.2 9.3 8.5 9.1 10.4 8.0 8.1 8.7 10.0 1972 1973 1974 13.2 8.8 6.8 SENT-ANNUALLYt QUARTERLY: 5.8 11.8 6.4 7.2 MONTHLY: 1974-APR MAY. JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. P 8.0 -27.3 -5.5 8.4 - NOTESS -1.5 -2.8 6.6 0.0 -8.6 19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.3 -5.5 3.1 - *I 10.4 ______ ____ 1 _____ RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EUROOOLLAP AORROMINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 0 - DFITMTNARY. AA 8.7 ______ 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED MAY 16, APPENDIX TABLE 1-B 1975 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RESERVES Period Total Non borrowed 1 2 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES 1/ Available to Support Pvt Deposits Adj Credit proxy Total Loans and InvestmentsY M M3 M2 ANNUALLY: M4 M5 M6 M7 9 10 11 12 888.8 983.4 985.5 1095.4 1013.1 1133.6 Series Revised 1972 1973 30,401 32,763 29,351 31,466 28,108 30,685 406.4 448.7 559.0 634.6 255.8 271.5 525.7 572.2 844.9 919.6 569.7 636.0 32,996 32,870 31,805 31,556 30,920 31,131 454.4 457.9 652.4 662.4 273.1 580.8 585.5 932.5 940.0 649.0 275.2 653.4 1000.7 1007.9 1113.6 1122.1 1153.6 1162.8 APR. MAY. JUNE 33,728 34,340 34,556 31,902 31,750 31,550 31,628 32,194 33,393 469.2 475.8 481.2 672.3 679.1 682.9 276.6 277.6 280.0 589.4 591.6 597.1 945.9 948.8 955.9 663.3 670.2 678.4 1019.8 1027.3 1037.2 1136.3 1144.5 1155.2 1177.5 1186.1 1197.2 JULY AUG. SEPT. 35,180 35,066 35,270 31,870 31,730 31,988 34,880 33,145 33,360 484.9 487.5 489.2 692.9 280.4 690.2 280.5 695.2 280.7 599.6 601.9 603.4 959.8 962.7 965,0 683.2 685.7 688.2 1043.4 1046.4 1049.9 1162.8 1166.9 1171.3 1205.8 1211.2 1216.5 OCT. NOV. OEC. 35,179 35,178 35584 339366 33,876 34,857 33,318 33,241 33,423 488.3 491.2 494.3 696.0 697.4 607.6 611.6 613.5 970.7 976.9 981.7 693.8 691.8 281.6 283.6 284.4 1056.9 1062.4 1072.0 1179.9 1185.7 1195.6 1225.0 1229.8 1238.3 35,820 35,006 34,845 35,421 34,858 34,739 33,423 33,184 33,031 495.8 495.7 498.1 693.Q 605.5 699.4 282.2 283.5 286.1 615.5 620.3 626.4 987.0 995.6 1007.2 708.3 712.4 716.2 1079.8 1087.6 1097.0 1204.9 1213.4 1222.6 1246.6 1255.0 1264.1 P 35,088 34,078 33,117 500.1 700.7 287.1 630.4 1017.0 718.8 1105.4 1233.2 1274.6 12 19 26 34,809 34,579 34,923 34,749 34,412 34,768 33,056 32,737 33,107 498.5 498.0 500.0 287.6 285.6 286.7 627.1 626.3 627.2 716.3 715.8 717.4 2 9 16 23 30P 35,001 34,791 35,139 35,144 35,303 34,950 34,761 35,117 34,979 35,062 33,164 33,074 33,201 33,095 33,084 500.0 501.5 501.2 498.6 498.2 286.2 287.4 287.1 286.4 786.7 628.2 629.9 630.4 629.9 631.0 718.4 719.3 719.0 717.7 718.2 7P 35,078 35,045 33,053 499.2 288.0 633.1 719.5 MONTHLY: 1974 -FEB. MAR. 1975-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. 697.1 703.8 WEEKLY: 1975--MAR. APR. MAY .1I_ NOTES: ______ L AI __ t 1I RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, COMMERCIAl PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT 1/ P - PRELIMINARY. 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED MAY 16, APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Demand Deposits Currency Time Tol Deposits Time Time thr CD's Mutual Savings nk and S & L Credit Union Shares CD's 4 5 6 7 CD's 3 2 1 Sharesl Savings Bonds 9 8 Short Term Commercia U.S.Gov't Paperc Securities y 10 9 10 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Series Revised ANNUALLY: 8.2 8.3 10.2 8.9 5.5 3.1 15.7 16.2 15.1 13.5 11.4 9.4 16.7 8.5 5.6 18.0 13.9 11.8 31.0 4'.3 41.5 0.5 30.9 16.5 15.0 38.8 11.5 1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973 8.4 7.8 7.1 3.8 19.8 11.4 10.6 11.6 10.4 6.3 17.6 9.4 76.1 10.6 30.7 27.0 5.1 70.7 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 9.7 10.2 5.2 1.0 18.6 10.5 10.9 7.6 5.9 5.1 13.8 9.1 54.9 22.1 17.7 14.1 19.8 2.9 3.8 6.6 -1.1 3.2 15.1 21.3 9.1 11.7 12.8 8.8 7.1 7.9 7.9 3.9 3.1 6.9 13.0 14.2 6.1 12.0 26.3 78.2 17.2 25.9 12.3 22.3 19.0 8.8 25.1 13.8 29.5 -22.1 0.2 10.1 13.6 13.1 18.9 -2.2 7.2 17.7 8.7 14.4 22.8 39.2 24.4 -2.7 -29.3 -35.5 -28.1 -5.8 0.0 -2.9 1972 1973 1974 SEMI-ANNUALLY: OUARTERLY: OTR. OTR. QTR. OTR. 1974 1974 1974 1974 11.0 8.2 8.0 12.1 1ST OTR* 1975 9.4 IST 2ND 3RD 4TH -11.2 MONTHLYI 1974--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 11.4 7.5 5.6 3.7 13.0 7.3 10.9 16.2 8.9 5.1 2.8 11.8 1.1 -3.3 -1.1 2.2 5.6 1.7 26.6 18.0 18.0 13.3 7.1 6.8 13.5 4.4 16.8 9.3 5.0 11.8 7.9 8.6 4.5 11.9 7.7 4.0 5.8 1.5 4.3 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 7.1 9.2 14.2 9.3 18.5 9.1 0.0 9.1 9.0 13.4 13.2 104.1 74.7 42.8 33.9 2.9 19.8 -9.7 67.4 44.7 10.8 10.7 25.4 18.7 12.2 28.3 -2.0 0.0 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. 5.3 10.6 12.2 1.7 -13.9 3.9 10.6 5.0 18.9 8.2 3.1 4.7 15.3 12.6 12.5 10.6 9.9 11.5 17.6 18.1 17.5 17.2 21.2 20.8 31.9 -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 23.7 7.8 -9.6 36.9 P a- NOTES: . RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. - .- -- 14.3 - &I ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED OCTOBER 1, 1970. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF MAY 16, APPENDIX TABLE 2-B 1975 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency Time D Total Total Deposits DositsDeposits 1 2 3 Time Time O a CD's 4 Mutual Savings Short Credit nk Bank and S &L Shares i 5 Union union Shares CD's CD's Savings Bonds 6 7 Term Commercia yit Pae U.S.Gov't l Non- US Got Securities Paper pot Funds 8 9 10 11 U.S. Gov't Gov' Deand 12 Series Revised ANNUALLYt 56.9 61.6 198.9 209.9 313.8 364.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.6 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.6 38.3 4.3 6.6 5.6 3.9 62.7 63.3 210.4 211.9 375.9 378.3 307.7 310.3 326.6 329.2 25.0 2< .4 68.2 68.0 60.3 60.5 52.7 53.7 39.9 40.7 6.9 7.5 2.2 3.2 APR. MAY JUNE 63.9 64.3 64.6 212.8 213.3 215.4 386.7 392.5 398.4 312.7 314.0 317.1 330.8 331.2 332.4 25.7 25.9 26.3 73.9 78.5 81.3 60.8 61.0 61.2 55.7 56.2 56.7 41.3 41.6 42.1 8.1 8.8 6.4 4.6 5.6 5.3 JULY AUG. SEPT. 64.8 65.5 65.9 215.6 215.0 214.8 402.8 405.2 407.5 319.2 321.5 322.7 333.7 334.2 335.0 26.5 26.5 26.7 83.6 83.8 84.8 61.5 61.7 62.0 57.9 58.8 59.4 42.9 44.3 45.2 9.2 9.0 8*6 4.2 6*2 6.3 OCT. NOV. OEC. 66.5 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.2 216.5 412.1 413.6 419.4 325.9 328.0 329.1 336.2 338.2 340.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.5 62.8 60.8 60.7 60.7 45.1 44.0 42.7 7.9 7.6 8.4 3.7 4*6 1.9 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. 68.2 68.8 69.5 214.0 214.7 216.6 426.0 428.9 430.0 333.3 336.8 340.3 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.8 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 61.9 62.3 61.8 41.7 41.5 41.5 7.6 6.5 6.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 P 69.6 217.5 431.7 343.3 357.3 29.3 88.4 64.1 63.7 41.4 6.7 2.1 12 19 26 69.5 69.5 69.5 218.1 21t.1 217*1 428.8 430.2 430.7 339.6 340.7 340.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.2 89.5 90.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 6.7 6.8 1.7 0.0 0.7 2 9 16 23 30P 69.7 69.5 69.5 69.7 69.8 216.5 217.8 217.6 216.7 216.9 432.2 432.0 431.8 431.4 431.6 342.0 342.6 343.3 343.5 344.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.2 89.4 88.6 87.9 87.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0..0 6.0 0.0 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.2 6.9 0.8 2.7 3.0 1.4 1.9 7P 69.8 218.2 431.5 345.1 0.0 0.0 86.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 2.0 1972 1973 MONTHLY 1974--FF. MAR. APR. WEEKLY: 1975--MAR. APR. MAY . . .. . . . .. -I II I I , - I I I I LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 1/ ESTIMATED P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) (Revised Series) M1 I Q 9.1 8.8 10.4 8.6 10.5 9.1 7.8 5.2 7.5 6.8 11.3 7.3 0.6 5.5 IV 8.7 5.0 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 I 5.5 5.8 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 II 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 1.0 3.5 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 IV 5.3 3.9 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 I 2.4 1.0 8.4 6.4 10.4 8.3 II III 1974 III 7.3 M 3.4 1973 1975 M2 10.6 5.6 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in of the quarters. all three months Appendix Table IV Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M2 M1 M M3 M Q M Q 1975 II III 8.8 8.4 10.4 11.7 10.1 11.7 13.5 13.8 12.9 14.2 1975 II III 7.5 7.2 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.3 12.9 12.1 12.6 12.7 1975 II III 7.3 5.8 9.4 8.7 9.7 9.1 12.2 10.8 12.4 11.4 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table VI Impact of Benchmark Revisions on Money Stock Growth Rates (Seasonally adjusted, per cent annual rates) Old Revised Old Old Revised Revised Old Old Revised Revised Annual: 1974 4.7 4.8 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.8 Half year: 1974--I II 6.3 3.1 6.3 3.1 8.7 5.8 8.7 5.5 7.9 5.6 7.9 5.4 Quarterly: 1974--III IV 1.6 4.6 1.0 5.3 4.5 7.0 4.2 6.7 4.0 7.0 3.8 6.9 2.4 8.5 8.4 10.3 10.4 1975--I Monthly: 1974--June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.4 2.1 0.9 1.7 4.7 6.8 2.1 10.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 11.2 5.2 5.0 3.2 8.5 9.7 2.5 11.2 5.0 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 9.0 5.0 3.9 3.1 7.1 8.8 5.2 9.0 4.9 3.6 2.9 7.1 7.7 5.9 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. -8.9 6.8 12.7 5.9 -9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 3.7 9.5 12.2 8.0 3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 6.4 10.6 14.2 11.9 6.5 10.5 14.0 11.7 

Federal Reserve (1975, May 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750520

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19750520,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1975},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19750520},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}