Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) November 15, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM November 15, 1974 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 grew at a 5.1 per cent annual rate in October, and data for early November suggest that the growth rate in prospect for the October-November period is 5½ per cent,1/ slightly below the midpoint of the tolerance range adopted by the FOMC at its October meeting. Growth in M2 for the two months appears likely to exceed the upper end of its tolerance range; flows into time and savings deposits other than money market CD's have responded much more than expected to the sharp decline in interest rates since late August. Deposit inflows at S&L's and mutual savings banks also improved significantly in October and early November, but less markedly than at commercial banks. 1/ These figures are based on the money supply series before revision. The revised series, which reflects mid-year benchmarks and seasonal factor review, will be published Thursday, November 21. The revised money supply figures are used in the table on page 5, in the section of this blue book covering prospective developments, and in appendix tables IV and V. Changes in the old and revised series are compared in appendix table VI. -2Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in October-November Period Range of Tolerance La test Estimates M1 4¾-7¼ 5.6 M2 5¾-8¼ 8.9 RPD 5½-8 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 9-10½ Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) -2.5 Avg. for statement week ending t. 23 Oc t. 30 No v. 6 NoNov. 13 9.81 9.72 9.63 9.37 The adjusted credit proxy declined at about a 1.5 per cent (2) annual rate in October, the first monthly decline in this series since early 1970. This reduction was largely attributable to a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury deposits. In addition, with loans and investments increasing little, banks were less aggressive bidders for large CD's.and allowed non-deposit liabilities to decline. RPD's were much weaker than expected and appear to be declining over the two-month period. (3) Following the last FOMC meeting, the Account Manager lowered the funds rate from somewhat above 10 per cent to around 9¾ per cent, the midpoint of the range adopted by the Committee at its October meeting. By the end of October, incoming data indicated that M 1 and M 2 were expanding at rates near the midpoint and upper end of their respective tolerance ranges. A literal reading of the aggregates would have led the -3Manager to shade the funds rate slightly on the high side of 9¾ per cent, to the extent consistent with even keel. But, in view of the evidence of additional weakness in economic activity, restraint in the lending policies of banks and other institutions, and the severe financial problems of the construction industry, Chairman Burns recommended, on October 31, that the funds rate target be reduced to 9½ per cent for the time being. majority of Committee members concurred in this recommendation. The With Federal funds trading around 9½ per cent in the past two statement weeks, member bank borrowing has declined markedly further to an average of around $1.1 billion. (4) Short-term market interest rates have generally declined from 30 to 100 basis points further since the October FOMC meeting, and bank prime rates have continued to follow the downward course of these market rates but with a lag. Downward pressures on short rates were fostered in part by the decline in the funds rate and expectations of further declines associated with growing evidence of economic weakness. Such expectations were reinforced by the Board's November 13 announcement of a change in reserve requirement regulations. Treasury bill rates had tended to resist the general trend until quite recently because of pressures created by actual and prospective additions to the supply of bills. The Treasury has been adding $200 million to the weekly bill auction since October, and on November 14 announced that it will raise $4½ billion more in the bill area by early December. The 3-month bill closed at 7.32 per cent on Friday, about 30 basis points below its level at the time of the previous FOMC meeting. (5) Long-term yields have also been under downward pressure since the October Committee meeting, particularly in the corporate market, where yields have fallen by more than a full percentage point despite the continuation of an exceptionally heavy financing schedule. Mortgage market rates have begun to decline in response to the general downtrend in other interest rates and the improvement of deposit flows at thrift institutions. Treasury note and bond yields dropped moderately even though the Treasury conducted three cash auctions totalling $4.9 billion, mainly to refund $4.3 billion of publicly-held debt maturing on November 15. Dealers were awarded nearly half of these offerings and have made relatively good progress in distributing their awards. (6) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods; monetary aggregate figures in this table are on a revised basis. Appendix table IV compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-ofquarter basis. Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix table V for the three alternatives presented in the next section. ... .. Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 -1973 Past Twelve Month Oct. '74 over Oct. '73 Past Six Month Oct, 174 over Apr. '74 Past Three Month Oct. '74 over Jul, '74 Past Months Oct. '74 over Sept.'74 Total teserves 8.6 8,2 8.7 .5 -1.2 Nonborrowed reserves 7.7 7,6 8.7 18.0 50.2 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.8 9.1 10.9 6.0 -.3 7.0 5.7 3.7 2.1 3.8 10.4 8.2 6.2 5.5 8.2 11.7 7.3 5.2 4.7 6.9 Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.4 9.6 8.4 3.4 -0.2 12.8 10.0 5.8 .2 Large CD's 1.1 1.8 2.1 .9 1.4 Nonbank commercial paper -- .6 .9 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) .5 .6 I/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Three alternatives are summarized below for Committee consideration (with additional detail presented in the table on the following page). The longer-run targets shown continue to encompass the seven-month period from August 1974 to March 1975, and the shorter-run ranges of tolerance cover the November-December period. Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B M1 6½ 5¾ 5 M2 9 8 7 Credit proxy 5½ 5 4 Targets (Aug. '74-Mar. '75) Associated ranges of tolerance for Nov.-Dec. M1 7¾-9¾ 7-9 6½-8½ M2 9-11 8¼-10¼ 7½-9½ 4½-6½ 3-5 2½-4½ 7½-9½ 8¼-10¼ 9-11 RPD Federal funds rate (inter-meeting range) (8) Alternative B continues the 5¾ per cent annual growth rate for M1 previously adopted by the Committee. The Federal funds rate range shown for this alternative between now and the next meeting is centered on 9¼ per cent, and thus represents a slight further easing in money market conditions. This easing appears to be required because the rebound in M1 growth this fall has thus far been somewhat more modest than expected; moreover, projected growth in nominal GNP has been weakened slightly. In the two-month November-December period, M 1 growth -6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 607.7 612.4 617.1 607.7 612.2 616.5 945.0 952.0 959.9 945.0 951.5 958.4 945.0 951.1 956.9 630.3 626.1 Rates of Growth 983.2 977.1 971.2 1974 Oct. Nov. Dec. 281.7 283.5 285.8 281.7 283.4 285.5 281.7 283.2 285.2 607.7 612.7 617.8 1975 Mar. 291.1 290.0 288.9 634.7 Aug. '74--Mar. '75 6.5 5.8 7.1 7.4 6.7 6.3 7.7 9.7 7.2 8.9 8.1 6.9 8.5 7.4 6.3 9.4 10.9 8.9 8.6 6.9 6.8 8.9 9.7 8.3 7.8 7.7 6.0 9.9 10.0 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.7 7.7 7.3 9.3 Quarters: 1974 1975 4th Q. 1st Q. Months: Nov. Dec. 1974 10.0 Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Total Reserves Alt. A Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A RPD Alt. B Alt. Dec. 488.2 491.3 493.2 488.2 491.0 492.6 488.2 490.9 492.3 36,874 36,892 36,892 36,874 36,870 36,761 34,909 34,989 34,804 34,909 34,987 34,732 34,968 34,675 Mar. 503.4 501.1 499.1 36,463 36,602 36,347 Rates of Growth 34,886 34,748 34,633 Oct. Nov. 1975 6.4 8.5 36,874 36,880 36,818 C 34,909 5.6 4.8 4.1 2.7 2.1 1.6 4.3 3.6 Quarters: 1974 4th Q. 1975 1st Q. 3.4 8.3 2.9 6.9 2.6 5.5 4.3 -0.3 3.5 -1.0 2.9 -1.6 3.4 3.9 2.6 3.2 2.0 2.5 Months: Nov. Dec. 5.6 4.6 4.9 3.9 4.7 3.4 -1.5 15.8 -1.9 13.8 -2.2 12.2 0.5 0.1 8.2 -0.2 10.3 Aug. '74--Mar. '75 6.6 MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATHS RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1290 5%% Growth Rate 53 A% Growth Rate Series RATE OF GROWTH DEC. '73 TO AUG. '74 -4280 5.0% -270 __ J F M A r M J 1974 A S O N D J F 1975 M -7is indicated to be in a 7-9 per cent annual rate range under this alternative, reflecting the cumulative impact of the monetary easing that has already occurred and an expected sharp, temporary spurt in M1 growth late in the year when U.S. Government deposits are projected to decline substantially (after seasonal adjustment). (9) Alternative A provides for the greater easing in money market conditions over the near term that would be needed if the Committee were to adopt higher longer-run targets for the monetary aggregates, indexed by a 6½ per cent growth rate for M1 . this alternative centers on 8½ per cent. The funds rate range for Alternative C provides for the tightening of money market conditions that would be required if the Committee were to lower its longer-run target for M 1 to 5 per cent. (10) As indicated earlier, credit market participants appear to expect a further easing in monetary policy and a continued decline in the Federal funds rate. U.S. Government security dealers have built up positions substantially in the recent refunding and will probably participate heavily in the forthcoming Treasury bill offerings. The recent very large sales of corporate bonds at sharply declining yields also seem to reflect market sentiment that interest rates have peaked. If the Federal funds rate were to remain around 9½ per cent, however, expectations of further rate declines would tend to weaken and market rates might well back up. If the funds rate were to edge lower, averaging around 9¼ per cent, the 3-month Treasury bill rate might fluctuate in a 7-7½ per cent range, and the 3-month commercial paper rate could decline slightly further (by an 1/8 or 1/4 percentage point). Corporate bond yields, however, probably will not decline much, if any, further from their present sharply reduced levels. The volume of new offerings is expected to remain strong and the recent surge of investor interest is likely to moderate at current yield levels, given continuing inflationary expectations. (11) Under alternative B, net inflows at banks of time and savings deposits other than money market CD's would probably remain fairly substantial. With offering rates on small-denomination deposits at Regulation Q ceilings, we have assumed that the new reserve requirement structure will not at present have a significant impact on the growth of consumer-type time and savings deposits. The position of mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations should continue improving over the period ahead, as their deposit flows continue to recover. The recovery in thrift institution flows, in combination with reduced bond yields, would be likely to encourage some further easing in mortgage market conditions. Mortgage markets would ease at a more rapid pace under alternative A, since there would be a more substantial rebound in deposit inflows at thrift institutions as market interest rates dropped further. (12) be moderate. Bank credit growth over the months ahead is likely to In view of concerns about liquidity and capital, banks have become quite cautious in their lending and investment policies. While the prime loan rate could be expected to decline further under either alternative A or B, it would still probably remain high relative to market rates in the weeks ahead. loan growth at banks. This would work to temper business Growth in mortgages and consumer loans is likely to remain weak, as demands remain slack and banks scrutinize loan applications carefully. Banks may, however, show more interest in security acquisitions in the period ahead than they have most recently, particularly under alternative A but also to some extent under alternative B, to take advantage of the apparent opportunity for capital gains. We have assumed that banks would be willing in the months ahead to expand their outstanding CD's at a moderate pace partly in order to acquire investments. -10- Proposed directive (13) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. In all three alternatives, it is proposed to delete the reference to Treasury financing because the quarterly refunding announced on October 30 has been completed. Alternative A [DEL: To implement this policy, while taking account of the of] and financing Treasury forthcoming developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate] of resumption SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative B [DEL: To implement this policy, while taking account of the developments in domestic of] and Treasury forthcoming and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent of] resumption with [DEL: moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative C [DEL: To implement this policy, while taking account of the developments in domestic of] and financing Treasury forthcoming and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate] of resumption RELATIVELY SLOW growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 11/15/74 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 8% growth for (11/13/74) I A I I I I Ii M i J 1973 I i I S I I D I M i I I J I 1 I I S 1974 *Break in Series, Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements D I I S 0 1974 I N D STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 2 11/15/74 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MONEY SUPPLY M2 S8640 8%I%growth for Oct -Nov 54%growth 1973 1974 A S 0 1974 N D CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 11/15/74 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 550 TOTAL RESERVES 1973 *Break in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reserve Requirements 1974 CHART 4 MARKET CONDITIONS A INTEREST RATES PER CENT -- 11 1973 1974 1973 1974 TABLE STRICTLY I NOVEMBER BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) II RESERVES AVAILARLP POR PRIVATE NONVANK DEPOSITS S----------------- I--------------------PERIOD SEAS ADJ SI 1l ONTHLY LEELS I MONTHLY LEVELS-sMILLIONSI --------------------I 1974- -AUG. 35,319 SEP. 35,294 OCT. I 34.908 NOV. (34.8441 ANNUAL RATES C)F CHANGE --------------------QUARTI?RLY I NON SEAS ADJ If 121 35,008 3 ,112 34.842 (34,8991 I It PRIVATE DEMAND CD'S AND NON OEP OTHER TIME DEP I (--------6) (4) 33.912 33,968 35,091 (35.875 ------------------ ------- I I (41 20,399 20.355 20.415 420,4701 I 7) (6) 8,994 9,071 9,127 ( 9,263) 17) 5.739 5,68B 5,217 ( 4,911) GOV'T AND INTERBANK (8) (8) 1,929 1,956 1,997 ( 2,030) 1.5 1.1 ( -5.5 6.7 0.8 -3, ( -7.3 9.2 52.4 22,8) ( -l1.2 S38.0 If 1.3 1.7 -0011 9.2 7.1 12.0 I -3.0 -2.9 5.9 0.91 1 17.3 10.3 10.7 14.6) ( 3.4 f 12.7) I 5.3 I)) I 9.3 6.1 II I 1 -0.5 -4.4) OCT.-NOV. ft II I! II 'I II -2.51 WEEKLY ----- ---LEVELS- I SMILLIONS OCT. 2 9 16 23 30 35.266 34,673 35.291 34.477 35.067 34.322 34.404 35.048 34.619 6 13 35,177 34.480 II 35.136 ft 35,072 34,695 II I - -- ~~- ------- II It II I _------ ( 1.7 20.4 7.9 II I ------ ONfBnRROWED RESERVES I fI II 6.2 20.3 8.1 MONTHL.Yt 197A--*AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. - 37,248 37.251 Ifl 36.905 II (36*8741 (I II I I -- 1I II II II 1974 I PEOUIRED RESERVES --------------------------------------------------SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (3 131 121---------II I 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. TOTAL RESERVES 15, RESFRVS -------------- I I AGGREGATE ----- It tI II t I, 1974--*1ST OTR. NOV. ---- CONFIDENTIAL --- ------- II II - 37.537 36*672 37.366 36.467 36.916 34.339 34,427 3,.622 35.145 35.278 379022 36,507 359895 35.409 I I 20.366 20.331 20,68 20,295 20,475 9,085 9,076 9,101 9.161 9,170 5,359 59322 5,272 5.151 5.102 2,271 1,999 2,075 1,990 1,849 20,459 20,301 9,208 9,200 5,079 4,943 1,975 1,888 ----------- - ----------------------- - NOTE! DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJFCTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF OCT. 15, 1974, THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OP 5.5 TO 8B. PERCENT FOR THE OCTOBER-NOVEMBER PERIOD. --------- - - ------- ---------------------- - - TABLE 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL MONETARY AGGREGATES NOVEMBER 15, (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) --------------------- -------------I--------- - ~ MONEY SUPPLY NARROW I BROAD (tWl I (M2 I I I S I PERIOD fi) MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONSI - -------------------- I 1974--AUG. I SEP. I OCT. I NOV. PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY ---- 1974--1ST 2ND 3NO 3RD QTR. OTR, QTR, QTR I I 12) (283.31 I I I (3) II I 602,0 603.1 608.1 I1612.0) 4890 490.7 489.6 ( 493,2) I I I 1*6 6A I 1.6 9 8.5 9,0 7,7 4.6 20,9 6.3 I I - -- - - - - - 6.2 22 .9 I I I I 5.6) I 16) 5.3 406.1 408.3 411.3 321.4 322,3 326.2 (32886) 9.7 4.7 ( S,?) II (413.1) II 15.4 23.7 I 1 I I 8.9) 5.2 II 4.2 -0,7 II 1 8.4 12.2 8.7 7.3 9,0 3.4 14.5 ( 9.6) (12.1) 4 6.) II 5.3 6.5 e.8 5.3) 1 3.2) II 7.1) I 260.9 2111 1 284.2 282.1 2 9 16 23 30 6 P 13 PEI I - -- 151 (7) I FUNDS I (8) 84.7 86,0 85.2 (84.4) 10.5 10.1 9.3 (9.1) I I WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS - -- () I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF It 2.6 0.4 5.1 ( 6.0 OCT.-NOV. - - -- - -------------------------------- II II I I 1974--AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. NOV. ----- TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I OTHER I TOTAL I THAN CD S I CD S I MONTHLY OCT. U.S. I GOWVT. I DEPOSITS I II 1 280.6 ----~CLI~------------L-- ---- ADJUSTED II CREDIT PROXY II - -- I 603,9 606.2 610,4 60.8 607.2 490.7 489.5 469,7 490.6 487.6 I I II II II II I 492,6 49 .3 II II II 3.7 II 4.9 %.9 II - - - - - - - - -- - -- - -- 410.3 411.0 412.7 412.7 323.0 325.1 326.1 326.7 327.7 86.4 85.2 84.9 85.5 85.0 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.6 9.4 412.2 327.7 328.1 84.4 83.9 8.8 8.6 412.0 II I - 409.5 SO 5.6 5.3 II II 610,0 610.7 28926 I - - - - - - -- - -- - -- - - NOTES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONSe S------- --------------- - - - -- - - -- - - -- - - - - - - - - - P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED ------------------------- - - 1974 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL NOVEMBER 15, 1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Open Market Operations 1/ Coupon Issues Agency Issues (1) (2) (3) (4) 790 653 -544 172 207 176 312 185 237 898 125 862 -594 -176 -1,727 -- - 4 11 18 25 -518 -835 151 183 ---176 Oct. 2 9 16 23 30 -100 -338 -391 -665 -324 --- Nov. 6 13 20 27 -7 -374 Bills & Accept. RP's Net 3/ TOTAL Member Open Market 4 Operations bank Borrowing Other 4/ Factors A in reserve categories req. res. against available res. 5/ U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) A Target available reserves 5/ (10) (11) 173 207 -400 773 390 221 315 -130 275 -901 465 544 375 -464 99 -450 -78 166 85 180 375 -1,494 1,990 173 -310 315 395 56 -2,222 702 1,274 373 -821 -164 610 -266 2,573 -189 -2,024 -53 -94 -56 224 216 -376 605 -364 724 -6,207 6,698 -2,692 12 563 -1,357 -768 -122 161 -313 -973 -501 -422 316 337 1,398 2,123 -427 -53 186 -14 71 -274 23 - 2p 401 -918 783 -697 656p 1,077 -3,607 134 -1,341 -511 -29 469 890 156p -106p -64p -374p (5) (6) (7) (8) -485 1,111 -984 789 2,155 -1,115 922 1,970 -673 362 866 420 -338 -2,239 74 726 -3,760 -2,011 1,601 309 235 191 2,225 549 3,322 322 141 -32 39 -60 -243 -1,970 -633 221 --207 5,742 -3,519 -714 2,351 5,446 -4,354 -564 2,918 ----- 823 -5,869 7,090 -2,027 336 -- 953 -3,101 (9) Monthly 1974--April May June July Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Weekly 1974--Sept. 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 131* -131* auctions. Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Target change for Oct. and Nov. reflects the target adopted at the Oct. 15, 1974 FOMC meeting. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for previous months reflectsthe bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. * Special certificate. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) NOVEMBER 15, 1974 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills Coupon Issues Dealer Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds _Member Excess** Reserves Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** 38 Others 8 New York Seasonal Total (9) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1973--High Low 3,796 897 1,299 -301 197 0 384 36 631 -240 2,561 688 163 3 -5,243 -1,831 -10,661 - 4,048 1974--High Low 3,238 -289 2,203 -309 253 0 371 27 432 -157 3,906 776 176 13 -7,870 -2,447 -12,826 - 6,046 1973--Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,565 2,804 3,441 484 793 973 44 90 105 226 148 276 227 239 307 1,476 1,393 1,298 126 84 41 -3,814 -4,469 -4,682 - 6,090 - 8,186 - 9,793 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. 3,102 2,436 1,986 540 1,619 583 114 120 68 254 263 239 162 184 134 1,051 1,162 1,314 18 17 32 -4,753 -5,262 -5,030 -10,893 -10,769 -11,058 Apr. May June 1,435 408 580 99 85 9 39 142 66 78 83 124 182 178 204 1,736 2,590 3,020 40 102 134 -3,952 -3,171 -4,445 -11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920 July Aug. Sept. 457 1,758 2,309 -214 398 552 14 33 23 79 108 85 162 197 180 3,075 3,337 3,282 149 164 139 -3,522 -4,231 -4,235 - 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250 *2,174 *654 25 166 153p 1, 13p 117p -4,602 - 8,689 4 11 18 25 2,669 2,994 2,453 1,878 459 552 550 444 10 22 20 38 51 106 77 105 321 109 82 74 3,906 3,084 2,921 3,531 152 132 134 141 -3,915 -5,416 -4,447 -3,612 - 7,816 -10,172 - 9,089 - 7,485 Oct. 2 9 16 23 30 1,131 1,269 2,522 *2,638 *2,677 772 621 566 * 616 * 776 171 12 23 6 4 80 117 207 259 202 456 -55 349p -130p 319p 3,218 2,245 1,744p 1,322p 6 38 1, p 142 134 2 12 p 107p 4 10 p -3,844 -5,388 -5,295 -4,101 -3,772 - 6,046 - 8,399 -10,020 - 8,696 - 8,383 Nov. 6 13 20 27 *2,518 *2,962 * 534 * 1,919 93 138p 202 198p 302p 177p 1,1 7p 98 1,0 p -5,158p 7 87 - , 0p - 8,672p 3 - 9,5 0p Oct. 1974--Sept. NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. 8 2 79p 70p Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreement s maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near term. Other security deater positions are oeoc issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) NOVEMBER 15, 1974 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent Short-Term Treasury Bills Federal Funds -Deay 90-Day BI-vea 1-year (1) (2) (3) 1973--High Low 10.84 5.61 8.95 5.15 1974--High Low 13.55 8.81 1973--Oct. Nov. Dec. 90-119 Day Commercial urilUcnl 1TRj paper I ____I_ CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Ne day su-Y 90-119 Day (6) Long-Term Aaa Utility New Recently iauiiyjTS Offs Issue Offered Municipal l Bondunicip Buyer U.S. Government (10-yr. Constant ( M.0riontant vrmn Maturity) (10) FNMA Auction Auciond Yields (11) (7) (8) 8.43 5.42 (4) 10.50 5.63 10.50 5.38 10.75 5.50 8.52 7.29 8.30 7.26 7.54 6.42 9.37 7.69 9.63 6.53 9.54 6.39 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 8.14 6.93 10.59 8.43 10.01 10.03 9.95 7.22 7.83 7.45 7.17 7.40 7.01 9.14 9.11 9.28 9.15 9.06 9.44 8.08 8.91 9.13 7.90 7.90 8.00 7.94 7.94 8.04 6.79 6.73 6.74 9.01 8.84 8.78 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. 9.65 8.97 9.35 7.77 7.12 7.97 7.01 6.51 7.34 8.86 8.00 8.64 9.05 8.09 8.69 8.83 7.97 8.56 8.21 8.12 8.46 8.22 8.23 8.42 5.22 5.20 5.41 6.99 6.96 7.21 8.71 8.48 8.53 Apr. May June 10.51 11.31 11.93 8.33 8.23 7.90 8.08 8.21 8.16 9.92 10.82 11.18 9.81 10.83 11.06 9.78 10.90 10.88 8.98 9.24 9.38 8.94 9.13 9.36 5.73 6.02 6.13 7.51 7.58 7.54 9.07 9.41 9.54 July Aug. Sept. 12.92 12.01 11.34 7.55 8.96 8.06 8.04 8.88 8.52 11.93 11.79 11.36 11.83 11.69 11.19 11.83 11.91 11.38 10.20 10.07 10.38 10.04 10.19 10.29 6.68 6.69 6.76 7.81 8.04 8.04 9.84 10.25 10.58 Oct. 10.06 7.46 7.59 9.55 9.35 9.33 10.16p 10.23 6.57 7.90 10.22 4 11 18 25 11.64 11.48 11.41 11.12 9.18 9.17 8.45 7.04 9.26 8.80 8.61 8.18 11.94 11.78 11.65 10.93 11.63 11.50 11.25 10.38 12.00 11.75 11.38 10.38 10.31 10.27 10.37 10.46 10.24 10.30 10.26 10.27 6.88 6.79 6.76 6.62 8.11 8.07 8.07 7.94 2 11.04 10.43 10.11 9.81 9.72 6.53 6.87 7.72 7.60 7.92 8.03 7.63 7.65 7.41 7.50 10.50 10.13 9.56 9.38 8.93 10.00 9.50 9.50 8.88 8.88 10.13 9.50 9.25 8.88 8.88 10.61 10.52 10.36 10.36 10.02 9.82 6.68 6.52 6.48 6.51 6.65 7.99 7.94 7.87 7.84 7.82 9.63 9.37 7.76 7.43 7.46 7.37 9.00 9.00 8.88 8.75 8.88 8.63 6.66 6.55 7.76 7.78p 1974--Sept. Oct. 9 16 23 30 Nov. 10.44 10.03 9.42 9.00 8.87p 9.28 9.20p 9.61 7.62 7.37 9.00 7 7.74 14 9.31p 7.17 -7.248.88 n a Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in the bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Gbvernment underwritten mortgages. Daily- Nov. NOTE: 6 13 20 27 (5) 10.59 10.56 10.32 10.11 9.93 Appendix Table 1 November 15, 1974 RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES RESERVES Period Total AnnualLN 1970 1971 1972 1973 Available to Support Non borrowed Private Deposits 3 2 +9,3 +7 8 +7.7 +7.2 +10.3 +7,8 +13.3 1et Half 1974 +11.0 Quarterly 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1973 1973 1973 1973 +6.4 +6.9 +10 6 +6.1 -3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4 +7.8 +12.5 +14.2 +1.4 let Qtr 1974 2nd Qtr. 1974 3rd Qtr 1974 Monthly1973--Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dot Dee +1 7 +20.4 +7.9 +1.5 +1.1 +5.3 +30 1 -21 1 +10 5 +14 7 +5 4 +0 5 +27 2 -5 1 +9.4 +12 1 -4 3 +10 5 +35.7 -21.8 -5.4 +32 7 +20.8 +6.8 +22.5 -5.5 +6.7 40.8 1974--Jan Feb. May. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept Oct. p 4 +6.0 +6.3 +8.7 +6.1 +6.7 +8.6 +1.3 M1 +8.7 +6.9 +10.1 +9.3 Semi annuall let Half 1973 2nd Half 1973 +1.6 +12.7 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M2 BANK CREDIT MEASURES M3 OTHER Total Loans and Invest ments 8 Total Time +8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +10.6 Adlusted Credit Proxy I I 7 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 9 Time T Other Than CD's 10 Thrift Tft Insti tunton Deposits 11 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +13.5 +17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0 +11.1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4 +8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6 +14.4 +7.7 +10.4 +19.4 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0 +1.2 -0.4 +10.7 +6.1 +18.6 +0.8 +1,2 +1.8 -0.8 -0.4 +6.4 +20.5 +2.9 -1.2 +8.4 +11.2 +11.1 +8.9 +8.3 +13.3 +13.0 +8.8 +7.7 +4.4 +9.1 +8.2 +9.7 +7.5 +13.8 +7.0 +16.6 +9.6 +20.8 +10.2 +10.4 +11.8 +6.0 +8.4 +7.7 +14.9 +15.0 +20.0 +10.6 +3.8 +11.5 +8.9 +6.9 +11.1 +5.3 +11.0 +8.6 +10.6 +5.1 +9.8 +14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3 +19.9 +12.7 +12,7 +2,7 +6.3 +22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1 +9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6 +6.2 +20.3 +8 1 +5.6 +6.4 +1 6 +9.0 +7.7 +4.6 +8.9 +6.4 +4 0 +8.5 +20.9 +6.3 +17.5 +12.0 +5.6 +15.6 +23.7 +8.4 +12.2 +8.7 +7.3 +26 8 -38 5 +1.8 +20 1 +0.5 +0 2 +24.9 -13 5 +21,9 +26.7 -1 6 +14 4 +15.9 -2.9 +10 3 +10 0 +9 9 +17.3 +18 5 +10.1 +13 3 +1.0 -6 3 +9.4 +4 7 +5.6 +0 9 +6 0 +13.9 +14.2 +4 1 -0.5 -3.6 +5 0 +11.7 +9.8 +9 4 +6.3 +5 2 +8.3 +11.8 +12 8 +5 7 +6 5 +3 7 +11 0 +11 5 +10 2 +10 8 +8 1 +6 6 +8 6 +10 9 +11 9 +6 3 +5 0 +3 9 +9 3 +10 1 +9.6 +9 7 +11 1 +22 3 +15 4 +11 0 +11.1 +8 6 +17.0 +5 7 +1 6 +2.7 +5 6 +17 8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +14 5 +18 2 +5.2 +7.7 +7.4 +3 6 +16 5 +22.3 +28.2 +22 5 +18.8 +11.2 +12 8 +18 9 +9.8 +3.7 +3 3 +11.3 +45.9 -30.4 -10.0 +19.0 -8.2 -7.4 +14.1 -7.3 +9,2 452.4 +6.9 -0 3 +11.9 +19.7 +21.7 +18.4 +8.7 +9.3 +6 1 -3.5 +11.1 +9.2 +6.5 +4.8 +7.8 +1.7 +2.6 +0 4 +5.1 +6 3 +12.7 +7.8 +7.2 +5 1 +10 6 +5.4 +6,2 +2.2 +9.9 +7 1 +10.9 +8.3 +7 0 +4 2 +7 9 +4.8 +4.5 +2 6 +8.2 +12.5 +1.3 +11.3 +31.6 +16.8 +13.3 +9.4 +5.2 +4.2 -0.7 +16.5 +17.0 +18.4 +17.9 +12.1 +5.7 +16.0 +9.4 -8.6 +21.8 +14.9 +9.0 +30.5 +22.6 +16.7 +13.2 +5.3 +6.5 -0.5 +8.8 411.4 +9.7 +4.6 +7.6 CD's Non deposit Funds US Gov't Demand 12 13 14 (Dollar change in billions) -1.2 +11,2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9 +0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +6.1 +8.6 +4.1 +2 6 +4.9 +15.6 +2.7 +1.2 -1.2 --,2 +1.7 -0.2 +2.0 +12.9 +7.0 +9.6 +10.0 +10.8 +10.7 +7 6 +13.0 +10 8 +16 1 +11 4 +10 1 +13 7 +11 6 +8 7 +9 0 +9 4 +10 4 +7 3 +2.3 +4 2 +6.8 +7 2 +8 6 +1.3 +4 6 +5 5 +3.8 +2.9 +0.7 +1.9 +2.4 +0 4 -2.9 -1.8 +0 8 +0,6 -0 5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0 6 +0.2 +0.2 +0 3 +0 6 -0.6 +1 5 -0.5 -1.9 +0.1 -1 4 +0 9 +0 2 +1 0 -0 2 -0 9 +16.0 +13.8 +6.6 +7.7 +5 8 +12.3 49.5 +9.0 +3.4 +14.5 +8 6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6 +2.5 +3.6 +3.2 +1.4 +3.2 +5.0 +2.7 +1.1 +1.1 +7.7 +5.8 +2.1 +2.1 -0.7 +1.3 -0.8 +0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 -0.4 +0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.8 +1.3 -3.2 +0 7 +0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -1 2 +2.8 +0.4 -1.0 -0.4 +1.5 -2.3 -0.3 -0.1 Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requtrements on bank-related qommerial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. FR 712-S 1/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous monnt reported data p - Preliminary. NOTES: November 15, 1914 Appendix Table 2 RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period Total BANK CREDIT ASURESOTHER MONEY STOCK MEASURES RESERVES Available to Non n Support borrowed Sport Pvt Deposits M1 T Put Dep M2 M2 3 M3 Adl Credit Credit Proxy Total Loans and an Invest ments To Total Time OTHER Time Thrift Insti Other nst Other tution Than CD'sFunds CD's on deposit d 1 2 3 6 7 ANNUALLY Dec 1970 Dec 1971 Dec 1972 29.193 31,299 31,410 28,861 31,173 30,360 27,099 28,965 29,053 172 2 182 6 198.7 425 2 473.0 $25.5 642 7 727 9 822 8 332 9 364.3 406.4 MOrHLY: 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. 32,199 31.634 31,910 31,037 30,040 30,085 29,439 29,368 29,621 199 6 200 4 200.1 329 6 532.4 534 7 830 2 835.8 840.4 409.7 413 5 421.2 567 3 578.5 586.8 317.6 323.6 331 2 44 7 49.1 54.6 Apr. May June 32,300 32,445 32,459 30,589 30,602 30,608 29,867 30,114 30,548 200.8 203 4 206 2 538 4 543.7 549.5 846.4 854.1 862.6 426.6 430 5 434.5 593.2 601.4 605.5 337 4 342 7 345 9 58 4 61 3 62.0 July Aug. Sept. 33.576 33,906 34.173 31,622 31,741 32,321 31,358 32,038 32,394 206.9 206.4 205.3 552 1 555.1 556.8 867.1 870 7 873 5 437.6 443 8 445.9 612 8 622.1 624.8 349.6 355 1 358.0 63.9 66.3 66.7 Oct. Nov. Dec. 34,942 34,857 35,105 33,466 33,463 33,807 32,845 32,714 32,912 206.1 208 2 209 7 561 9 567.3 572.1 880.3 887.7 894.8 446.5 447 5 449 6 628.8 632.8 634.6 359.1 360.1 363 5 63.8 62 0 62.8 1974--Jan, Feb. Mar. 35,850 35,108 34.949 34,799 33,916 33,634 32,799 32.791 33,117 208 7 210 4 211 9 575.1 581.2 585.0 900.1 908.3 914.6 454 3 454 8 459.1 643,3 652.4 662.4 370.1 374.7 377.5 65.5 66.6 67.7 35,902 36.523 36,731 34,166 33,933 33,725 33,660 34,270 34,795 212.8 213.4 214 8 588 5 591 0 596 2 919 9 923.1 929.2 471 2 477.8 483 1 672 3 679.1 682.9 387 1 394.4 399.9 75.4 81.2 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 37,421 37,248 37,251 36,905 34,120 33,912 33,968 35.091 35,047 35,319 35,294 34,908 932.9 936.4 938 4 944.8 489 6 692.0 696.9 691.9 691.9 404 3 406.1 408.3 411.3 85.4 215.3 598.9 602 0 603.1 608 1 486.9 489 0 490.7 3 10 17 24 31 37,446 37,102 37,828 37,428 37,315 34,011 34,462 34,653 33,787 33,625 35,164 34,994 35,107 34,847 35,191 216.0 214 2 216 1 214.3 214.4 598.1 597 8 599.4 598.5 599.5 487.9 485 3 486.2 402 4 403 2 404 0 405 2 405.9 85.0 84 7 85.4 85.9 85 6 10.7 10.4 10 8 12.1 7 14 21 28 37,101 37,106 37,381 37,301 34,012 34,065 33,944 33,768 35,243 35,247 35,346 35,328 215.6 215.6 215.4 214 2 601.5 602 7 602.4 488.8 84.9 84.7 84.6 84.3 11.0 488.6 489.6 489.2 405 5 406.2 406.0 406.3 4 11 18 25 37,488 37,023 37,324 37,064 33,582 33,939 34,403 33,533 35,585 35,285 35,509 34,943 215 2 214 6 214.9 213.9 603 1 602.7 603.3 602.0 490.4 491.6 490.8 489.8 407.2 408.0 408.3 408.6 85.0 86.0 85.8 86.4 10.5 10.6 10.1 10.0 2 9 16 23 30 p 37,537 36,672 37,366 36,467 36,916 34,319 34,427 35,622 35,145 35,278 35,266 34.673 35,291 34,477 35,067 215.0 214.4 217.5 215.4 213.1 603.9 606.2 610.4 608.8 607.2 490.7 489.5 489.7 490.6 487.6 409.5 410.3 411.0 412.2 412.7 86.4 85.2 84.9 85.5 85.0 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.6 9.4 37,022 35,895 35,048 215.4 610.0 491 6 412 2 84 4 8.8 Apr. May 1974--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. "ov 6 p 5 215.1 215.1 214 8 601.8 US Gov't Demand 8 487.0 487 8 83 3 84 7 86.0 85 2 11.7 9.8 10.5 10.9 I I I I L I 1 1 _ _ -1 1 1/ Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. paper are included commercial on bank-related and requirements October 16,1969, are included beginning borrowings on Eurodollar NOTES Reserve requirements Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial beginning October 1, 1970. Monthly data are daily averages except for FR 712 T paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U 5. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statoent weeks Weekly data are not available for M3, total loans and investments and thrift nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. institution depoeits. p - Preliminary. Appendix Table III Money Supply Growth Rates M 1 less M1 less Foreign Official Deposits and Foreign Official Deposits Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks 4.7 5.2 5.3 February 5.6 5.6 6.7 March 0.9 0.5 0.9 April 6.0 6.5 6.6 May 13.9 13.0 11.8 June 14.2 14.7 14.4 July 4.1 3.6 2.8 August -0.5 -0.5 -- September -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 5.0 5.5 4.6 November 11.7 10.9 10.1 December 9.8 9.9 8.2 -3.5 -4.0 -5.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 March 9.2 10.2 9.9 April 6.5 3.9 4.0 May 4.8 6.6 5.8 June 7.8 6.1 6.2 July 1.7 3.0 1.3 August Sept. 2.6 0.4 3.0 -- 4.0 - 0.4 Oct. 5.1 6.0 M1 1973 January October 1974 January February 5.7 Appendix Table IV Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) Revised Series M1 M 1973 1974 M2 Q M Q 9.1 I 3.4 6.8 7.3 II 11.3 7.3 10.6 III 0.6 5.5 5.6 IV 8.7 5.0 I II III 8.6 M 8.6 Q 10.3 10.3 8.9 7.7 5.2 7.5 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 5.5 9.3 9.6 8.8 9.1 6.5 7.7 8.2 6.4 7.3 1.6 4.6 6.2 4.0 5.2 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table V Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M M3 M2 M M1 1 M Q Q M Alt. A 1974 7.1 4.6 9.4 7.3 8.9 6.8 1975 7.4 7.2 10.9 10.2 9.7 8.4 Alt. B 1974 6.7 4.3 8.9 7.1 8.3 6.5 1975 6.3 6.3 8.6 8.4 7.8 7.7 Alt. C 1974 6.3 4.1 8.5 6.9 7.7 6.3 1975 5.2 5.2 6.2 6.8 6.0 6.2 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. APPENDIX TABLE VI COMPARISON OF OLD AND REVISED MONEY STOCK GROWTH RATES (Per cent Annual Rates of Change) Old Annual: 1972 1973 Half-year: 1973 I II 1974 I Quarterly: 1973 I II III IV 7.7 4.4 6.0 M1 Revised Old 8.7 6.1 11.1 8.9 9.1 8.2 8.4 7.4 4.7 6.0 Revised M3 Old Revised 11.1 8.8 13.0 8.8 13.1 8.8 9.1 8.3 8.6 9.7 7.5 7.7 9.6 7.6 7.6 8.9 3.4 11.3 0.6 8.7 6.9 11.1 5.3 11.0 7.3 10.6 5.6 10. 8 8.6 10.6 5.1 9.8 8.6 10.3 5.2 9.8 5.6 6.4 1.6 5.5 6.5 1.6 9.0 7.7 4.6 9.3 7.7 4.6 8.9 6.4 4.0 8.8 6.4 4.0 Mar. -3.5 11. 1 9.2 -2.7 9.7 9.2 6.3 12.7 7.8 6.9 11.1 9.7 7.1 10.9 8.3 7.2 9.3 9.5 Apr. May June 6.5 4.8 7.8 6.1 4.3 9.1 7.2 5.1 10.6 8.0 4.3 7.0 4.2 7.9 7.3 3.3 8.5 July Aug. Sept. 1.7 2.6 0.4 2.1 1.3 1.3 5.4 6.2 2.2 5.4 5.2 3.2 4.8 4.5 2.6 5.0 4.1 2.9 Oct. 5.1 3.8 9.9 8.2 8.2 6.9 1974 I II III Monthly: 1974--Jan. Feb 3.8 11.5 -- 10.5 

Federal Reserve (1974, November 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19741119

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19741119,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19741119},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}