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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) October 11, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM October 11, 1974 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Growth of the monetary aggregates slowed in September to annual rates of 1.3 per cent for M1 and 2.4 per cent for M2. Taking into account our current October estimate, which is still largely projected, money growth rates for the combined September-October period appear to be well below the ranges of tolerance established at the last Committee meeting, as the table shows. Expansion in the adjusted bank credit proxy has also been well below expectations, and RPD growth has been considerably below the lower limit of its two-month range of tolerance. Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in September-October Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Range of Tolerance Latest.Estimates M1 3-6 1.7 M2 5-7½ 3.8 RPD 6-8½ 2.6 Memo: Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum) 1/ 10¼-12 1/ Avg. for statement week ending 11.41 Sept. 18 11.12 Sept. 25 Oct. 2 11.04 10.43 Oct. 9 The range adopted at the meeting was 10½-12 per cent, but the lower end was dropped to 10¼ per cent by Committee action on October 4. (2) Evidence of sluggish growth in the money and reserve aggregates emerged immediately following the last Committee meeting. In responding to this weakness, the Desk moved cautiously at first, in part -2to avoid encouraging an unduly rapid decline in market rates. rate declined from an average of 11 4 The funds 8 per cent in the week of the Committee meeting (week of Sept. 11) to around 11 per cent in early October. On October 4, the Committee concurred in the Chairman's view that the Federal funds rate should be reduced to a range of 10½--10¾ per cent and in his recommendation that the lower limit of the funds rate constraint should be reduced by ¼ point to 10¼ per cent. In the week ending October 9, the funds rate averaged 10.43 per cent. more aggressively, dropped to $1.0 With nonborrowed reserves provided member bank borrowing in that week (apart from Franklin) billion as compared with an average of about $1.9 billion in August and September. Most recently, the Desk has been aiming at a Federal funds rate tending toward the lower end of a 10¼--10½ per cent range. (3) Slow growth in the monetary aggregates and the accumulating evidence of generally sluggish economic activity created widespread expectations that the System would ease pressures on credit markets somewhat further. When declines in the Federal funds rate appeared to confirm these expectations, other short-term rates dropped sharply--in some cases by more than 200 basis points. As rates on large CD's and commercial paper declined, many banks lowered their prime rates to 11¾per cent, and most recently a few key banks have dropped the rate to 11½ per cent. The yield on 3-month Treasury bills fell from a level in excess of 9 per cent at the time of the last Committee meeting to a low of 6-1/8 per cent. This change was accentuated by large foreign buying of bills in September, reinvestment demands from holders of maturing -3September tax bills, and an unexpected cut-back by the Treasury in the size of weekly bill auctions during the period of peak quarterly income tax receipts. Most recently, however, with the Treasury increasing--rather than cutting--the size of its weekly bill auctions, and with large additional Treasury cash borrowing anticipated shortly, the 3-month bill rate has bounced back and closed Friday at around 7.65 per cent. (4) Interest rates on long-term Treasury and State and local government securities have declined somewhat since the last meeting--by roughly 1/8 to 1/4 of a percentage point. Yields on new and recently offered corporate issues have risen somewhat further on balance to new highs, because of a sharp expansion in the prospective volume of new bond offerings; most recently corporate bond yields have edged off. In the stock market, price indices continued to decline over most of the intermeeting period, reaching their lowest levels in 12 years, but in recent days a sharp rebound raised the Dow-Jones industrial average by about 75 points. The very recent improvement in the stock market and an accompanying better tone in bond markets may be attributable in part to the Administration's new economic program as well as to recent signs of a less restrictive monetary policy. (5) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods. Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section. Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 1973 I Past Twelve Months Sept. '74 over Sept. '73 Past Six Months Past Past Three Months Months Sept. '74 Sept. '74 Sept.'74 over over over Mar. '74 June '74 Aug. '74 Total reserves 8.5 9.4 14.5 8.2 Nonborrowed reserves 7.6 5.5 3.4 5.6 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.8 9.3 14.5 7.0 5.8 7.5 10.2 8.3 6.8 4.1 1,9 1,3 6.3 4.8 2.4 Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 ( 2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 10.4 11.7 7.5 5.2 4.0 2.7 Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.5 10.1 13.9 6.5 4.9 9.9 8.1 4.5 -8.8 Bank Credit Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 12.8 Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's 1.6 Nonbank commercial paper Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold 1.3 2.0 to affiliates and branches, NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Attached below for Committee consideration are three alternative specifications to accompany the directive, with additional detail presented in the table on the following page. The longer-run targets encompass the same time period (the seven months August 1974 to March 1975) as employed for target purposes at the September Committee meeting. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M 6½ 5¾ 5 M2 7¾ 6¾ 6 Targets (Aug. 1974 - Mar. 1975) Credit proxy 7 6¾ 6¼ Associated ranges of tolerances for Oct.-Nov. M1 5¼-7¼ 4¾-6¾ 4¼-6¼ M2 6¾-8¾ 5¾-7¾ 5¼-7¼ RPD 6-8 8-10 Federal funds rate (inter-meeting range) (7) ¾ 5½-7½ 8¾-10¾ 4¾-6¾ 9½-11½ Of the three alternatives shown, alternative B includes the 5¾ per cent longer-run target path for M1 adopted at the last Committee meeting. A further decline in the Federal funds rate over the next few weeks is indicated for that alternative, at least to the mid-point of the 8¾-10¾ per cent range. The expected funds rate is lower than anticipated at the previous meeting for two reasons: (a) M 1 growth since the meeting -5aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates 1974 Alt. A M1 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A 280.9 281.5 283.6 285.5 280.9 281.4 283.4 285.1 603.3 606.5 611.0 615.6 603.3 606.2 610.1 614.0 603.3 Dec. 280.9 281.6 283.8 285.8 Mar. 291.2 290.1 289.0 629.2 625.7 Sept. Oct. Nov. 1975 M3 Alt. B Alt. C 938.6 942.7 938.6 942.3 947.7 946.7 612.8 938.6 943.0 948.8 955.2 953.0 951.1 622.9 973.5 968.6 964.1 605.9 609.5 Aug. '74--Mar. '75 6.5 5.8 5.1 Rates of Growth 7.7 6.7 5.9 6.8 5.9 5.1 Quarters: 1974 4th Q. 1975 1st Q. 7.0 7.6 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.5 8.2 8.8 7.1 7.6 6.3 6.6 7.1 7.7 6.1 6.5 5.3 3.0 9.4 2.6 9.0 2.1 8.5 6.4 8.9 5.8 7.7 5.2 7.1 5.6 7.4 5.2 6.4 4.7 5.6 Months: Oct. Nov. Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. Alt. A Alt. B 1974 1975 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 493.1 499.9 502.0 Mar. 508.6 491.0 C Total Reserves Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A Alt. A RPD Alt. B Alt. C 37,276 37,065 37,369 38,071 37,276 37,052 37,323 38,028 35,314 34,957 35,261 35,581 35,314 34,945 35,217 35,548 35,314 34,932 35,171 35,506 37,915 37,789 36,148 36,077 35,951 491.0 493.0 499.7 492.9 499.5 501.5 501.0 37,276 37,077 37,414 38,103 508.0 506.7 37,988 491.0 6.9 6.6 6.0 -1.2 12,7 -1.6 12.2 -2.5 7.5 6.4 7.1 6.0 6.6 5.0 5.6 11.4 5.3 10.3 4.8 9.3 0.6 0.2 9.9 -0.2 8.8 6.9 6.7 6.2 6.2 Quarters: 1974 4th Q. 1975 1st. Q. 9.0 5.3 8.6 5.2 8.1 4.6 13.0 Months: Oct. 5.1 4.6 Nov. 16.5 4.9 16.3 16.1 Rates of Growth 5.8 5.3 Aug. '74--Mar. '75 10.9 MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATHS RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1290 I-- | 53 4% Growth Rate RATE OF GROWTH DEC '73 TO AUG '74 -1280 5 2% 270 1 J F M A M -- J J 1974 A S 0 N D J F 1975 M -6has fallen short of expectations, and thus a more active provision of reserves is money is required in future to move back to path; and (b) demand for expected to be lower, particularly by the first quarter, in view of the slower growth now projected by the staff for nominal GNP. (8) Based on partial data for the early days of the month, M1 growth in October is expected to be quite slow. Growth is,expected to pick up considerably later in the fall and early winter, partly in consequence of the lagged impact on money demand of recent and projected interest rate declines. Over the October-November period, M1 growth is indicated to be in a 4¾-6¾ per cent annual rate range under alternative B. small rise in September, Given the the 5¾ per cent growth rate from August to March implies a 6½ per cent rate from September to March--i.e. over the fourth and first quarters. (9) Demand pressures on credit markets are expected to be intense over the next few weeks. A large amount of new corporate and municipal bond offerings is scheduled. remain large. Federal agency financing needs And the Treasury will be raising about $4 billion of new cash by early November--through additions to bill offerings of short-term instruments, note. it auctions, other and perhaps also an intermediate-term The Treasury will also announce on October 30 the terms on which will refund $4.3 billion of maturing publicly held coupon issues. These borrowing demands will tend to moderate the general declines in interest rates that would otherwise be prompted by a further drop in funds rate to around 9¾ per cent. the -7(10) The additional declines in interest rates expected under alternative B may involve a further easing in the 3-month commercial paper rate to the 9-9½ per cent range, compared with around 9¾ per cent currently, The 3-month Treasury bill should continue to fluctuate very widely--say, in a 6-8 per cent range--and may average a bit below 7 per cent, although very large additions to the supply of bills in the days immediately ahead would likely exert upward pressure on the rate. As short-term market rates ease off, some pick-up in net inflows of time deposits other than money market CD's at banks are to be expected, and the position of thrift institutions may show some improvement. Growth rates of 7½ and 6¼ per cent, respectively, are expected for M2 and M3 over the fourth and first quarters, up from the relatively low third quarter growth rates of 4-5 per cent. (11) Bank credit growth is expected to be moderate, on balance, over the months ahead. Some rebound is likely in business loans from the unusually low September pace, particularly with business inventory accumulation projected to be sizable in the fourth quarter. growth is not expected to be as large as in earlier months. However, loan The strained liquidity position of banks is likely to keep them from easing nonprice lending terms significantly, although the prime loan rate may decline further. Moreover, improved conditions in the commercial paper market should tend to divert some corporate borrowing away from the banks. (12) Alternative C involves a Federal funds rate range centering on 10 per cent, the average rate prevailing in the last full statement week, M1 expansion in this alternative is expected to be consistent -8with a longer-run target rate of growth of 5 per cent, annual rate (from Aug. '74 to March '75). Over the fourth and first quarters, the rate of growth would average about 5¾ per cent. (13) Given the demand pressures noted earlier and the prevailing expectations of a further easing of monetary policy, it is likely that some of the recent decline in short-term market interest rates would be reversed in the weeks ahead under this alternative. The 3-month bill rate might be expected to average around 8 per cent, and the commercial paper rate to move back into a 10-10 per cent range. Corporate bond yields would probably be under upward pressure, while the recent slight moderation of mortgage market pressures would be unlikely to persist, both because of the general market atmosphere and because inflows to thrift institutions would be expected to show little improvement. (14) Alternative A contemplates a more rapid growth path for M1 than under alternative B. To achieve this growth a more pronounced easing of money market conditions is therefore required, and we believe that the funds rate would need to drop to 9 per cent shortly after the Committee meeting. Such a decline would generate substantial expectational effects, with Treasury bill rates probably dropping by more than a percentage point, and longer-term market rates easing off. Inflows of consumer-type time And savings deposits at banks and thrift institutions would improve noticeably; the thrift institutions would be in a position to improve liquidity; and lenders would probably become more willing to make new mortgage commitments. -9Proposed directive language (15) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. For all three alternatives, it is proposed to include a reference to Treasury financing because the regular midNovember refunding will be announced on October 30. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with SUBSTANTIAL [DEL: moderate]growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with RESUMPTION OF moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 1 10/11/74 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 8% % growth I SI J 5 , II M I I I J 1973 I I I I S I D Ii M I I I I J I S 1974 * Break in Series, Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements 1, D J A 1974 S 0 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 2 10/11/74 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6% growth for S, 3% growth. BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 i I I S560 1973 1974 J J A 1974 S 0 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 10/11/74 CHART 3 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1 550 520 490 480 430 TOTAL RESERVES 44 41 38 35 32 1973 *Break in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reserve Requirements. 1974 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PERCENT 12 INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT WEEKLY AVERAGES INTEREST RATES Long-term 13 r - WI EKLY AVERAGES PERCENT -1 WEEK FEDERAL FUNDS RATE cM S FHA MORTGAGES FNMA MONDAY AUCTION EURO-DOLLARS 3 MONTH S11 - 2V7 \ t Aaa UTILITY N EW ISSUE 8I F R DISCOL RATE SGOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YEAR AVERAGES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S3 TREASURY BILLS 3 -MON T H MUNICIPAL POND BUYER THURSDAYS 0 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4 6 MONTH ROWED I1I7 I1 97 1973 911 1974 1973 1 974 1974 1 t TABLE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 1 OCTOBER 11, BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) I II S RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS I ---- AGGREGATE RESERVES ----------- REQUIRED RESERVES I -------------------------SEASONALLY ADJUSTED --I------II---NONBORROWED I TOTAL --I----------RESERVES I NON SEAS ADJ )I RESERVES SEAS ADJ I PERIOD MONTHLY II---I (1) I 121 II 13) (4) 37,421 37,248 37,276 (37,0321 34,120 33,912 33,994 (35,321) 1974 ----------- CD'S AND NON DEP PRIVATE DEMAND OTHER TIME DEP (51 (6) 7) 8,866 8,996 9,072 ( S,083) 5,570 5,737 5,686 5,293) I GOVRT AND INTERBANK 8) LEVELS-SMILLIONSI ---- I----------- 1974--JUL. 35,047 35,319 35,314 (34,892) AUG. SEP. OCT. 34,840 35,008 35,132 (34,827) 20,449 20,398 20,356 (20,352) I 2,374 1,929 1,962 4 2,1401 ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE QUARTERLY: 1973--4TH 6.1 OTR. 1.4 1974--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 6.2 20.3 R.3 1.7 20.4 8.2 MONTHLY: 1974--JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. 8.7 9.3 6.8 -1.6) 22.5 -5.5 7.5 4.21 SEP.-OCT. 5.91 2.6) ( 13.4 5.8 12.7 1.5 1.1 5.6 1.3 1.7 -0.5 9.2 7.1 12.0 4 4.1 -3.0 -2.5 2.4) 8.0 17.6 10.1 4.8) 1 -0.0) 7.5) 14.1 -7.3 10.2 59.7; S35.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS AUG. SEP. 7 14 21 28 35,243 35,247 35,346 35,328 34,925 34,920 35,004 35,062 37,101 37,106 37,381 37,301 34,012 34,065 33,944 33,768 20,346 20,392 20,447 20,400 8,942 8,988 8,995 9,039 5,727 5,695 5,743 1,858 1,860 2,035 1,973 4 II 3' ,268 25 35,585 35,313 35,536 34,960 34,939 37,48e 37,055 37,357 37,090 33,582 33,970 34,436 33,559 20,417 20.285 20,408 ?0,333 9,040 9,073 9,085 9,066 5,807 5,817 5,934 5,473 1,903 1,742 1,821 2,130 ? 9 35,2P6 34,642 35,341 34,373 37,564 36,697 34,346 34,441 20,364 9,086 9,069 5,357 5,323 2,278 2,056 18 OCT. 34,908 35,312 20,289 5,753 NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF SEP. 10, 1974, THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 6.0 TO P.5 PERCENT FOR THE AUGUST-SEPTEMBER PERIOD. TABLE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 2 OCTOBER MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTFD) I I I PERIOD MONEY SUPPLY I BROAD NARROW (Ml) I IM2) (1) I 2) I t I ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY I 11 I II II I 1974--JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. 2PO.0 280.6 280.9 1281.41 I -------- 491.0 (491.9) 5.3 1 5.6 ( 5.3) II I II I I I I II II I I 8.9 11.0 3.3 1974--IST OTR. 2NP OTR. 3RD OTR. 5.6 6.4 1.9 9.0 7.7 4.8 8.5 20.9 6.5 MONTHLY I THAN CD S CD S (5) (6) (7) 404.3 406.1 408.4 1411.0) 319.0 321.4 322.4 (324.51 85.4 I FUNDS (8) 1 I 4.7 86.0 (86.5) I I 6.1 12.6 15.4 23.7 8.4 12.2 8.7 7.5 I I I 11.2 10.5 10.1 (I 9.3) I I ii 1974--JUL. AUC. 5FP. OCT. 1.7 2.6 1.3 ( 2.11 SEP.-OCT. WEEKLY I lI II 1973--4TH OTR. TOTAL I NONDEPOSTT I SOURCES OF I 2.5 I TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I OTHER I I I I I I (4) t 489.0 (605.91 U.S. GOVT. II S 486.9 598.9 602.1 603.3 PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH ------------ -------QUARTERLY I I II DEPOSITS I || (3) I MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONSI II I 5.4 6.4 2.4 5.2) 1 1.7) 1 3.8) 7 14 21 28 281.0 281.2 281.1 279.8 601.5 602.7 602.4 601.8 4 11 18 290.9 280.6 280.8 280.0 603.1 602.7 603.2 602.1 f II I 2.2) I 13.2 5.3 6.e ( 7.6) I 3.6) I ( 7.21 I 405.5 406.2 406.0 406.3 I 9.4 5.2 4.9 I 9.5 9.0 3.7 7.81 5.8) LEVELS-SBILLIONS I AUG. 486.8 488.6 489.6 489.2 I SEP. 25 OCT. 2 P 9 PEI I 280.8 280.5 490.4 S 491.6 490.8 S 489.9 I 491.0 604.1 604.7 lI It !1 5.8 6.1 II II 5.9 6.2 II 5.4 It I I 407.2 408.0 408.3 408. 5.7 321.5 321.3 322.0 I 322.2 322.1 322.5 322.2 5.0 409.8 410.1 I - --- - ----- - -- -------------------- 85.0 10.5 10.6 10.1 10.0 R5.8 86.5 I I P - - - ----------- ------ - --- 9.1 9.1 86.5 86.0 323.3 324.1 PE - ~-~- 11.0 9.8 10.5 0. e5.9 I NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARI-NTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ---- 84.9 84.7 84.6 84.3 I 5.9 II 320.5 I II II 490.3 I 4.0 5.0 I PRELIMINARY PARTIALLY ESTIMATED 11, 1974 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) OCTOBER 11, 1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) (1) Coupon Issues Agency Issues (2) (3) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ l/ Open Market Operations Bills & Accept. RP's Net 3/ ' TOTAL (4) 15) Open Market Operations (6) _ Member Bank Borrowing Other 4/ Factors (7) (8) en in reserve categories req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (9) available res, 5_ (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (10) &Target available reserves 5/ (11) Monthly 1974--March r64 190 122 1,531 1,780 -74 166 -354 -323 57 April May June 790 653 -544 172 207 176 312 185 237 -485 1,111 -984 789 2,155 -1,115 922 1,970 -673 362 866 420 -338 -2,239 74 173 207 -400 773 390 221 315 -130 275 July 898 125 726 -3,760 -2,011 1,601 309 -901 465 544 375 Aug. 862 -- 235 2,225 3,322 141 39 -464 -450 166 180 176 191 -60 99 -73 80 375 Sept. -594r 5 49r 3 22r -32r Oct. Nov. 315 Weekly 1974--Aug. Sept. Oct. 7 14 21 28 66 -138 881 567 --.. -3 ---- 366 1,820 1,232 -4,768 430 1,682 2,113 -4,200 -589 -161 2,003 -145 -601 -48 396 96 906 225 -2,179 .31 4 11 18 25 -518 -835 151 183 --176 221 -207 5,742 -3,519 -714 2,351 5,446 -4,354 -564 2,918 56 -2,222 702 1,274 373 -821 -164 610 -266 5 , 73p -188p 2 - ,031p -53 -9Sp -54P 226P 2 9 -100 -338 --- -- 823 -5,869 724 -6,207 563 -1,357 -313 -973 338p 1,395 18 p 34p - 2 -130 21 136 -148 6 -154 -5 84 68 216 3 0 - 8 p 404p 3T3p 4 02p -969p 16 23 30 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ -30 Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation. Treaeury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.P. accounts. Reserves to support private nonbpnk deposits. Target change for Sept. and Oct. reflects the target adopted at the Sept. 10, 1974 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflect the bluebook patteirn that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL OCTOBER 11, (FR) 1974 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars Period __ _ U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills Coupon Issues Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit otal Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others (6) (8) (9) Excess** Reserves (1L) (2) 1973--High Low 3,796 897 1,299 -301 2,561 688 -5,243 -1,831 -10,661 - 4,048 1974--High Low 3,238 -289 2,203 -309 3,906 776 -5,911 -2,447 -12,826 - 6,210 1973--Sept. 2,745 395 1,852 -3,173 - 5,355 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,565 2,804 3,441 484 1,476 1,393 1,298 -3,814 -4,469 -4,682 - 6,090 - 8,186 - 9,793 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. 3,102 2,436 1,986 1,619 583 Apr. May June 1,435 99 July Aug. Sept. 457 1,758 *2,309 -214 398 7 14 21 28 1974--Aug. Sept. Oct. 793 973 540 162 184 134 1,051 1,162 1,314 18 17 32 -4,753 -5,262 -5,030 -10,893 -10,769 -11,058 182 178 204 1,736 2,590 3,020 40 102 134 -3,952 -3,171 -4,445 -11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920 3,075 149 164 *552 162 197 191p 3,177p 1 39 -3,522 -4,231 -4,235 - 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250 2,065 2,290 1,657 1,226 -178 772 487 489 228 113 209 183 3,089 3,041 3,437 3,533 176 160 166 161 -4,466 -5,174 -4,172 -3,010 - 4 11 18 25 2,669 2,994 *2,453 *1,878 459 552 3,906 3,085p 2,921p 3 53 1 , p 152 132 p 134p 141p -3,915 -5,416 * 550 * 444 321 13 7p 109 p 8 8p -3,612 - 7,816 -10,172 - 9,089 - 7,485 2 9 16 23 30 *1,131 *1,269 * 772 * 621 479p -41p 3,218p 24 2, 5p 144p 13 4p -3,885p 43 8 -5, p - ,210p - 8,438p 408 580 85 9 3,337 ' NOTE p -4, 4 47 9,938 9,382 8,605 9,878 6 ' Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed b repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are Bebt issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL * Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) OCTOBER 11, 1974 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent Short-Term Treasury Bills Long-Term 90-119 Day CD's New Issue-NYC Commercial Federal Funds 10.84 5.61 Municipal Offered (8) 8.30 7.26 Bond Buyer 10.50 5 63 13.55 8.81 9.63 6.53 9.54 6.39 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.61 8.05 10.52 8.14 6.95 5.16 10.78 8.29 8.07 10.31 10.31 10.50 7.88 7.99 10.01 10.03 9.95 7.22 7.83 7.45 7.17 7.40 7.01 9.14 9.11 9.28 9.15 9.06 9.44 8.08 8.91 9.13 7.90 7.90 8.00 7 94 7.94 8.04 9.65 8.97 9.35 7.77 7.12 7.97 7.01 6.51 7.34 8.86 8.00 8.64 9.05 8.09 8.69 8.83 7.97 8.56 8.21 Feb. Mar. 8.22 8.23 8.42 Apr. May June 10.51 11.31 11.93 8.33 8.23 7.90 8.08 8.21 8.16 9.92 10.82 11.18 9.81 10.83 11.06 9.78 10.90 10.88 8.98 9.24 9.38 8.94 9.13 July Aug. Sept. 12.92 12.01 11.34 7.55 8.96 8.06 8.04 8.88 8.52 11.93 11.79 11.83 11.69 11.83 11.91 11.19 14 21 28 12.09 12.02 12.23 11.84 8.42 8.84 8.94 9.63 8.50 8.52 8.80 9.54 11.55 11.68 11.85 12.00 Sept. 4 11 18 25 11.64 11.48 11.41 11.12 9.18 9.17 8.45 7.04 9.26 8.80 8.61 8.18 11.94 Oct. 11.04 10.43 6.53 6.87 10.97 10.03p 7.06 7 80 1974 -- High Low 1973 -- Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1974 -- Jan. 1974 -- Aug. Oct 7 2 9 16 23 30 3 10 paper MIU.S. Recently 8.95 5.15 Low NOTE - 90-Day (2) New 1-year (3) 8.43 5.42 1973 -- High Daily - (1) Aaa Utility (4) 60-89 day (5) 10.50 5.38 90-119 Day (6) 10.75 5.50 Issue (9) 5.59 4.99 Government FNMA (10-yr. Constant Auctior Maturity) (10) 7 54 6.42 Yields (11) 9.37 7.69 8.14 6.93 10.59 8.43 5.10 7.09 9.32 5.05 5.18 5.12 6.79 6.73 6.74 9.01 8.84 8.78 5.22 5.20 5.41 6.99 6.96 7.21 8.71 8.48 8.53 9.36 5.73 6.02 6.13 7.51 7.58 7.54 9.07 9.41 9.54 10.20 10.07 10.04 10.19 6.68 6.69 7.81 8.04 9.84 10.25 11.38 10.38 10.29 6.76 8.04 10.58 11.75 11.75 11.63 11.63 11.75 11.88 12.00 12.00 9.82 10.10 10.26 9.99 10.15 10.02 10.28 10.26 6.58 7.99 8.04 8.05 8.14 11.63 11.50 11.25 10.38 12.00 11.75 11.38 10.38 10.31 10.27 10.37 10.46 10.24 10.30 10.26 10.27 6.88 11.78 11.65 10.93 8.03 7.63 10.50 10.13 10.00 9.50 10.13 9.50 10.61 8.03 7.63 10.38 9.75 8.12 8.46 10.52 -10.41p 6.61 6.73 6.91 6.79 6.76 6.62 8.11 8.07 8.07 7.94 7.99 7.97p 10.12 10.38 10.59 10.56 10.32 8.04 n.a. Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8 and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in the bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Appendix Table 1 October 11, 1974 RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Period Total Available to Non Support borrowed Private M M2 M3 Adljsted Credit Proxy Annually 1970 1971 1972 1973 Semi-annually: ist Half 1973 2nd Half 1973 2 +6.0 +7.2 +10.6 +7.8 +9.3 +7.8 +7.7 +7.2 +6.7 +8.6 Total Time 4 Time Other Than Thrift Insti tution CD's Non deposit Funds US Gov't. Demand CD's Deposits 8 9 10 11 +8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +10.6 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +13.5 +17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0 +11,1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4 +8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6 +14.4 +7.7 +10.4 +19.4 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0 +1.2 -0.4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 12 13 14 (Dollar change in billions) +8.7 +6.9 +10,1 +9.3 +6,0 +b.3 +8,7 +6.1 +1.6 412.7 +10.3 +7.8 +7.7 +4.4 +9.1 +8.2 +9.7 +7.5 +13.8 +7.0 +16.6 +9.6 +20.8 +10.2 +10.4 +11.8 +10.7 46.1 +18.6 +0.8 +1.2 +1.8 -0.8 -0.4 +1.3 +13.3 +6.0 +8.4 +7.7 +14.9 +13.9 +20.0 +10.6 +6.4 +20.5 +2.9 -1.2 +3.8 +8.6 +10.6 +5.1 +9.8 +14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3 -19.9 +12.7 +12.7 +6.3 +22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1 +9.9 410.6 +10.6 +12.6 +11.4 +9.7 +4.6 17.6 +11.2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9 +0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +0.1 +1.5 -2.3 -0.3 -0.1 -1,2 let Half 1974 +11.0 Quarter lst Qtr. 2pd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. +6.4 +6.9 +10.6 +6.1 -3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4 1 1973 1973 1973 1973 3 Total Loans and Investments Deposits 1 O BANK CREDIT MONEY STOCK RESERVES ESERVEMEASURESMEASURESTHER +7.8 +12,5 +14,2 +1.4 +8,4 +11,2 +11.1 +8.9 +8.3 +13.3 +13.0 +8.8 -1.2 +8.9 +6.9 +11.1 +5.3 +11.0 +6.2 +20.3 +8.3 +5.6 +6.4 +1.9 +9.0 +7.7 +4.8 +8.9 +6.4 +4.0 +8.5 +20.9 +6.5 +15.9 +11.5 +4.5 +15.6 +23.7 +8,5 +12.2 +8.7 +7.5 -8.6 +4.1 +2 6 +4.9 +15.6 +2.7 +1.2 +1.7 -0.2 +1.9 +26.8 -38 5 +1 8 +20 1 +0 5 +0 2 +24 9 -13.5 +21 9 +26.7 -1 6 +14 4 +15 9 -2.9 +10 3 +10 0 +9 9 +17.3 +18.5 +10 1 +13 3 +1 0 -6 3 +9.4 +4.7 +5.6 +0 9 +6 0 +13.9 +14 2 +4 1 -0 5 -3 6 +5.0 +11.7 +9.8 +9 4 +6.3 +5 2 +8.3 +11 8 +12 8 +5 7 +6,5 +3.7 +11 0 +11 5 +10.2 +10.8 +8.1 +6 6 +8.6 +10 9 +11 9 +6 3 +5.0 +3 9 +9 3 +10 1 +9 6 +9 7 +11.1 +22 3 +15 4 +11.0 +11.1 +8 6 +17.0 +5 7 +1 6 +2.7 +5.6 +17 8 +23.7 +17.2 +13 1 +16.6 +8.2 +14 5 +18 2 +5 2 +7 7 +7.4 +3 6 +16.5 +22,3 +28 2 +22.5 +18.8 +11 2 +12 8 +18 9 +9.8 +3 7 +3.3 +11 3 +12.9 +7,0 +9.6 +10 0 +10.8 +10 7 +7 6 +13 0 +10.8 +16 1 +11 4 +10.1 +13.7 +11 6 +8.7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2 3 +4.2 +6.8 +7.2 +8 6 +1 3 +4 4 +5 5 +3 8 +2.9 +0 7 +1.9 +2.4 +0.4 -2 9 rl.8 +0.8 +0.6 -0.5 +0.4 +0 2 +0.3 +0 2 +0.9 +0 6 +0.2 -0 4 +0.2 +0.3 +0 6 -0 6 +1.5 -0.5 -1 9 +0 1 1.4 +0 9 +0 2 +1.0 -0.2 -0 9 +45.9 -30.4 -10.0 +19 0 -8.2 -7.4 +14 1 -7.3 +10.2 +6.9 -n 3 +11.9 +19.7 +21.7 +18.4 +8.7 +9.3 +6.8 -3.5 +11.1 +9.2 +6.5 +4.8 +7.8 +1.7 +2.6 +1.3 +0.3 +12.7 +7.8 +7.2 +5.1 +10.6 +5.4 +6.4 +2.4 +7.1 +10.9 +8,3 +7.0 +4.2 +7.9 +4.8 +4. +2.7 +12.5 +1.3 +1.3 +31.6 +16.8 +13.3 +9.4 +5.2 +4,9 +14.7 +15.5 1-16.8 +16.0 +10.2 +7.8 +13.1 +9,4 -8.8 +21.8 +14.9 +9.0 +30.5 +22.6 +16.7 +13,2 +5.3 +b.8 +16.0 +13.8 +6.6 +7.7 +5.8 +12.3 +9.5 +9.0 +3.7 +8.6 +7.8 t9.2 +6.6 +2.5 +3.6 +3.2 +1.4 +3.2 +2.7 +1.1 +1,1 +7.7 +5.8 +2.1 +2.1 -0.7 +1.3 +0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 -0.4 +0.9 -0.7 -0.4 +1.3 -3.2 +0.7 +0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -1.2 +2.8 +0.3 1974 let Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 1974 1974 3rd Qtr Monthly; 1973--Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct. Nov Dec +1.7 +20.4 +8 2 +1.5 +1.1 +5.6 +30 1 -21.1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +0.5 +27.2 -5.1 +9 4 +12 1 -4.3 +10 5 1974--Jan. Feb Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. p +35.7 -24.8 -5.4 +32.7 +2Q.8 +6.8 +22.5 -5.5 +7.5 +11.5 I NOTES: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. 1/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. FR 712-S p - Preliminary. Appendix Table 2 October 11, 1974 RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Available tto Support borrow Pvt Deposits Deposits Period Total M1 NonAdl 2 1 3 M Pvt ep IDep T 4 7 8 172 2 182.6 198.7 -25 2 473.0 525.5 642 7 438.5 822.8 332 9 364 3 406 4 28,861 31,173 30,360 27.099 28,965 29,053 221 2 MONTHLY: 1973--Jpn. Feb. Har. 32.199 31,634 31,910 31.037 30,040 10,085 29,439 29,368 29,621 256 7 257 9 258 1 199.6 200.4 200 1 529.6 532 4 534 7 830 2 835 8 840.4 Apr. MHay June 32,300 32.445 32,459 30,589 10,602 30,608 29,867 30,114 30.548 259.4 262.4 263.5 200.8 203 4 206.2 518 4 543.7 549 5 July Aug Sept.c, 33576 33.906 34,173 31,622 31,358 12,038 32,394 266.4 266 3 265 5 206.9 206.4 205 3 552.1 555.1 556.8 266.6 264.2 271,4 206.1 208.2 209.7 Oct. 32,321 Total Loans Loans and invest ments me tsI 9 6 29,193 31,299 31,410 31,741 Ad| Credit Proxy 5 ANNALLY. Dec 1970 Dec 1971 1972 Dec 235 2 255 7 OTHER OTHER BANK CREDIT MEASURES MONEY STOCK MEASURES RESERVES Total iNon Other n CDs 10 11 Thrift Insti tun CD's oFunds Deposits 12 Non deposit 13 US US Gov't Demand 15 203 9 237 9 269 9 217 5 254 8 297 2 25 3 33 0 559 0 229 2 270 9 313 3 409 7 413 5 421 2 567 3 578 5 566.8 317 6 321 6 331 2 272 9 274 5 276.6 300.9 303 5 305.7 44.7 49.1 54 6 5 0 4 5 67 6.1 4.9 7.6 846.4 854.1 862.6 426.6 430 5 434.5 593.2 601 4 605.5 337 4 142 7 345 9 278 9 281 4 283 9 308 0 310.4 313 1 58.4 61.3 62.0 5.1 5.4 56 7.1 5.2 5.3 867 1 870 7 873.5 437.6 443 6 445.9 612 8 622.1 624.8 349 6 155 1 358 0 285 7 288 8 291 4 315.0 115 6 316.7 63 9 66.3 66.7 6.5 7.1 7.3 3.9 48 5.0 561 9 567.3 572.1 bbO 3 6b7.7 894 8 446 5 447 5 449 6 628 8 632.8 634 6 139 I 160 1 363.5 295 3 298 1 100 6 318 5 320 4 322.7 63.8 62.0 62 8 6.9 7 1 7.4 6.0 5.8 4.9 727.9 487 6 6.5 61 6.1 43.4 34,b>7 J5,11)5 33,463 32,845 12,714 33,807 32,912 15,850 35,1 8 34,949 14,799 33,916 33,634 32.799 32,791 33.117 270 6 71 1 275 2 208.7 210.4 211.9 575.1 581.2 585.0 900 1 908.3 914 6 454 3 454.8 459 1 642 4 650 7 659 8 370 1 374.7 377 5 304 6 308 1 309 8 325.0 327 1 329 6 65.5 66 6 67.7 7 5 7.7 8 6 6.2 3.0 3.7 15,02 36,523 16,731 3-.,166 13,Q33 33,660 34,270 34,795 276,8 277 8 279 6 212 8 213.4 21 4 .8 588 5 591 0 596 2 919 9 471 2 477.8 483 1 668 6 674 3 679,3 387 1 314 4 199 9 311 8 313 3 316 5 331.4 332 1 333 1 75 4 81.2 83.3 9.6 10 7 10.3 4.5 3.8 3.7 17,421 17,248 37,276 14,120 33.412 35,047 35,319 35,314 280 0 215.1 215.1 215.0 598.9 602.1 603.3 932.9 486.9 489.0 491.0 686.7 691.6 40 3 406.1 408.4 319.0 321.4 322 4 334 0 334.4 335.3 85 4 84.7 86.0 11.2 10.5 10.1 2.5 5.3 5.6 3 10 17 24 31 37,-46 37.102 37,828 37,428 37,315 34,011 34.462 35,164 34,994 35,107 34,847 35,191 280 8 27'.3 280 9 216.0 214 2 216.1 214.3 214.4 598 1 597 8 599.4 598.5 599.5 487.9 485 3 486.2 487.0 487.8 402 403 404 405 405 4 2 0 2 9 317 4 318.5 318 5 319.3 320 3 85.0 84 7 85.4 85.9 85.6 10 7 7 14 34,012 34,065 215.6 215.6 215.4 214.2 601 5 602.7 602.4 601 8 488.8 488.6 489 6 489.2 405 5 406.2 406.0 406.3 320.5 321 5 321 3 322 0 84 9 84.7 84.6 84 3 11.0 33,944 33,768 35,243 35,247 35,346 35,328 281.0 28 37,101 37.106 37,381 37,301 Spt 4 11 p 18 p 25 p 37,488 37,055 37,357 37,090 33,582 33,970 34,436 33,559 35,585 35,313 35,536 34,960 280.9 280.6 280.8 280.0 215.2 214.6 214.8 214.0 603.1 602.7 603 2 602.1 490.4 491.6 490.8 489.9 407.2 408 0 408.3 408.6 322.2 322.1 322.5 322.2 85.0 85.9 85.8 86.5 10 5 10.6 10.1 10.0 Oct. 2 p 37,564 34,346 35,286 280 8 214.9 604.1 491.0 409.8 323 3 86.5 9.1 33,466 No. 1974--Jan. tLb. MNr. May J, n, A,. Sept. MEEKY; 1974--Jul; Aug. 21 33,725 33,994 34,653 13,787 33,625 280 6 280.9 279.2 279 2 281 2 281 1 279.8 923.1 929 2 936.5 938.6 686.5 - 10.4 10.8 12.1 11.7 98 10.5 10.9 1/ Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. NOTES Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16,1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included Adjusted credit proxy includes manly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commaercial begmntng October 1, 1970. Monthly data are daily averages except for FR 712-T Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. paper and Eqrodollar borrowings of U.S banks. Weekly data are not available for M3 , total loans and investments and thrift figures which are for last day of month paper nonbank institution deposits. p - Prelimlnary. commercial Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) M1 1972 1973 M3 M Q M Q M I 9.0 5.3 12.3 11.0 13.5 12.5 II 6.2 8.2 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.7 III 8.7 8.2 10.8 10.8 13.3 13.0 IV 9.9 8.4 10.6 10.2 12.0 12.2 I 3.8 7.0 7.0 8.8 8.6 10.2 II 11.5 7.5 11.1 8.8 10.6 9.0 -- 5.6 5.3 7.9 5.1 7.5 IV 8.9 4.5 11.0 8.9 9.8 7.9 I 5.6 5.8 9.0 9.4 8.9 9.1 II 6.4 7.3 7.7 7.9 6.4 7.2 III 1.9 3.6 4.8 6.4 4.0 5.2 III 1974 M2 Q M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M2 M1 M M Q M3 M Q M Q Alt. A 1974 7.0 8.2 6.4 7.1 5.6 1975 7.6 8.8 8.3 7.7 7.4 Alt. B 1974 6.6 7.1 5.8 6.1 5.0 1975 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.5 6.2 Alt. C 1974 6.0 6.3 5.3 5.3 4.6 1975 5.5 6.6 6.2 5.5 5.2 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table V Money Supply Growth Rates M1 1973 January M less Foreign Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks 4.7 5.2 5.3 February 5.6 5.6 6.7 March 0.9 0.5 0.9 April 6.0 6.5 6.6 May 13.9 13.0 11.8 June 14.2 14.7 14.4 July 4.1 3.6 August -0.5 -0.5 September -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 5.0 5.5 4.6 October 10.9 2.8 November 11.7 December 9.8 9.9 8.2 -3.5 -4.0 -5.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 1974 January February NOTE: M1 less Foreign Official Deposits 10.2 10.1 9.9 March 9.2 April 6.5 3.9 4.0 May 4.8 6.6 5.8 June 7.8 6.1 6.2 July 1.7 3.0 1.3 August Sept. 2.6 3.0 0.4 4.0 0.4 1.3 Growth rates from January 1974 to date have been revised to reflect changes due to April 1974 call report benchmark adjustments to M1. 

Federal Reserve (1974, October 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19741015

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19741015,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19741015},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}