Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) August 16, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) August 16, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 increased at about a 1 per cent annual rate in July, but preliminary data for early August suggest a pick-up in months together, M1 growth is growth, For the two expected to average around 3 per cent, in the lower part of the Committee's range of tolerance. 1/ Growth in M2 has been closer to the mid-point of its range of tolerance, as time deposits other than money market CD's have been rising about as projected. RPD is now ex- pected to expand at a rate in the lower part of its tolerance range, reflecting a shortfall relative to projection of CD growth in addition to the weakness of M1. Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in July-Aug. Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Latest Estimates Old Revised series series M1 2-6 2.8 3.2 M2 4½-7½ 5.7 6.2 RPD's Memo: 8½ -11¾ 9.4 9.4 Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ Range of Tolerance 11-13 Avg. for statement week ending 13.04 July 17 12.29 July 31 12.02 Aug. 14 Money supply figures have been revised on the basis of the April call report. Benchmarking to this call lowers the April level of the money stock by $1.4 billion, and this benchmark adjustment reduces levels in Smaller downward subsequent months byroughly corresponding amounts. Comparisons of rates of adjustments were made back through January. growth for the old and revised series are shown in Appendix Table VI. Growth of M1 in the first half of 1974 has been lowered to a 6 per cent annual rate by the revised series, as compared with 7.1 per cent on the old series. -2(2) quite weak. Savings flows to nonbank thrift institutions in July were On a seasonally adjusted basis.mutual savings banks experienced a net deposit outflow, while deposit growth at S&L's was small. Data so far available for August suggest a continuance of the relatively weak performance at non-bank thrift institutions, no doubt reflecting the bunching of security offerings attractive to small investors. These other alternatives have included variable rate securities issued by bank holding companies and other corporations designed to appeal to individuals, and new high coupon Treasury issues offered in the mid-August refunding. (3) The Federal funds market has eased appreciably since the last FOMC meeting. In the past two weeks, funds have been trading at rates within a 12 to 12¼ per cent range, about 100 basis points below the average established during the week of the July FOMC meeting and about 150 basis points under the peak level reached in the first week of July. There has apparently been some lessening in banks' reluctance to borrow at the Federal Reserve since the late June - early July period of peak money market tensions. Member bank borrowing (exclusive of emergency borrowing) has been about $200 million higher on average in the past four statement weeks as compared with the previous four. From mid-July to mid-August total borrowing averaged $3.3 billion, of which $1.5 billion represented emergency borrowing (almost all of which was at Franklin National). (4) Private short-term interest rates have moved down concurrently with the Federal funds rate, though by smaller amounts. Key rates, such as those on 90-day commercial paper and bank CD's are now about ¼ to ½ of a percentage point below their levels at the time of the July meeting. Yields -3on new corporate and municipal bonds have also edged lower over this period. New issues have been distributed more readily, partly because the sizes of some issues have been scaled down and the maturities shortened. (5) In contrast to private rates, yields on Treasury and Federal agency securities have risen significantly during the intermeeting period. Yields on Treasury coupon issues have risen about 20 to 30 basis points and bill rates--which had been depressed relative to the general level of A series of market rates--have advanced about one percentage point. Treasury financing operations which added significantly to the floating supply of issues, together with anticipation of further bill financing, were mainly responsible for the upward pressure on rates. Market disappointment over the failure of Arab countries to invest their oil revenues in Treasury special issues has also added to the upward pressure. (6) The three new coupon issues offered in the Treasury's mid- August refunding have been well received. In view of their high coupon rates, the issues were particularly attractive to individual investors. As a result, half of the amount auctioned was awarded to noncompetitive bidders, a record participation for this type of bidding. All three new issues are currently trading at modest premiums above their average auction prices. Dealers have not pressed their awards on the market and still hold nearly three-fourths of the $1,050 million they were originally awarded. (7) The table on page 5 shOws (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various -4recent time periods. Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-monthof-quarter basis. Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section. Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 - 1973 Past Twelve Months July '74 over July '73 Past Six Months July '74 over Jan. '73 Past Three Months July '74 over Apr. '74 Past Month July'74 over June'74 17.2 23.3 Total reserves 8.5 9.9 8.9 Nonborrowed reserves 7.6 6.2 -3.8 -0.2 14.9 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.8 10.3 13.8 16.7 9.3 7.0 5.1 6.9 4.8 1.7 M 2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 10.4 8.5 8.3 7.2 5.8 M3 (M2 plus deposits at Thrift institutions) 11.7 7.6 7.3 5.7 4.9 Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj,) 10.5 11.3 14.4 13.3 9,4 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 12.8 11.9 13,6 10.5 13.1 1.0 1.8 3.3 3.3 2.1 .2 .6 -. 2 .3 Concepts of Money (Revised series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/ .1 Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesdayof-month figures, Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed, Prospective developments (8) Three alternative sets of specifications are summarized below for Committee consideration (with more detailed figures shown in the table on p.6a). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 6¼ 5¼ 4¼ M2 7½ 6½ 5¼ Credit proxy 7½ 6½ 6 Targets (3rd & 4th qtrs, combined) Associated ranges for August-September M1 5½-7½ 4¾-6¾ M2 6¼-8¼ 5¼-7¼ 5-7 RPD 8¾-10¾ 7¾-9¾ 6¾-8¾ 9¾-11¾ 10¾-12¾ 11¾-13¾ Federal funds rate range 4¼-6¼ (inter-meeting period) (9) Alternative B continues the 5¼ per cent annual growth rate for M1 over the second half of 1974 adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. Because of the downward revision in the level of the money stock as a result of benchmarking to the April call report, this 5¼ per cent rate of growth would lead to a level of M1 by the end of this year that is $1.4 billion lower than that implicit in the growth path adopted at the last meeting. Alternative A encompasses a more rapid 6¼ per cent rate of growth for M1 over the July-December period, while Alternative C comprises specifications that might -6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 1974 M2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C June 279.6 279.6 279.6 596.2 596.2 596.2 929.2 929.2 929.2 July 280.0 281.2 283.0 280.0 281.1 282,7 280.0 281.0 282.4 599.1 602.5 606.3 599.1 602.4 605.7 599.1 602.3 605.2 933.0 936.9 942.1 933.0 Aug. Sept. 936.7 940.6 933.0 936.6 939.6 Dec. 288.2 286.9 285.6 618.7 615.5 612.2 958.4 952.3 947.3 Quarters: 1974 3rd Q. 4th Q. Rates of Growth 4.9 7.3 4.4 5.9 4.0 4.5 6.8 8.2 6.4 6.5 6.0 4.6 5.1 7.7 4.7 6.8 4.3 6.0 6.8 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.6 6.9 4.9 5.0 4.5 3.3 4.8 5.0 4.6 3.8 Months: Aug. Sept. 1974 Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. C Alt. B June 483.1 483.1 July Aug. Sept. 486.9 489.0 494.2 Dec. 500.9 Alt. A RPD Alt. B Alt. C 36,731 34,795 34,795 34,795 37,445 37,173 37,549 37,445 37,158 37,494 35,066 35,348 35,634 35,066 35,333 35,579 35,066 35,318 35,525 38,732 38,545 38,385 36,219 36,035 35,876 9.5 12.0 10,6 -8.2 13.4 -8.7 12.1 Alt. A Total Reserves Alt. C Alt. B 483.1 36,731 36,731 486.9 488.9 493.7 486.9 488.8 493.4 37,445 37,188 37,603 498.9 497.3 Quarters: 1974 3rd Q. 4th Q. 9.2 5.4 8.8 4.2 8.9 8.3 9.5 9.6 6.6 9.0 5.1 8.4 4.0 9.2 8.3 8.6 7.0 Months: Aug. Sept. 5.2 12.8 4.9 11.8 4.7 11.3 -9.2 10.9 -7be considered if the Committee wishes to aim for a lower rate of growth than previously desired for the monetary aggregates over the second half of the year. (The three alternatives are depicted in the chart on the following page). (10) Under alternative B, and given the recent slowing in money growth, the staff expects that the Federal funds rate may decline a little further between now and the next meeting--centering around 11 Such a decline would not in itself per cent. to more than a quite modest downward adjustment in be sufficient to lead other market rates. Demand pressures on credit markets are expected to be fairly well sustained in the weeks ahead, as a sizable volume of corporate, municipal, and Federal agency offerings come to market. The Treasury will probably borrow another $2 billion or so of cash in early September, possibly through tax bills, over and above ongoing additions to the weekly bill auctions. While this flow of new securities would work to limit down- ward rate adjustments, a sizable expectational decline in rates could take place if a further downdrift in the funds rate were accompanied by continued slow growth in the monetary aggregates and adverse business news. (11) Alternative A contemplates a significant further decline in the funds rate over the next few weeks, which would undoubtedly spur a sharp drop of interest rates generally. Alternative C, on the other hand, envisions a return of the Federal funds rate to the 13 per cent area, and this would be accompanied by a re-emergence of market tensions and generally rising interest rates. Dealers in U.S. Government securities would, under the circumstances, attempt to liquidate positions enlarged in the wake of recent Treasury financings. MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S*A -- - - - - S ORIGINAL SERIES. ROWTH O JUNE '74 *c - 285 A=6'/% GROWTH JUNE TO DEC. B=514% GROWTH JUNE TO DEC. C=41/% GROWTH JUNE TO DEC. 5.3% S-275 REVISED SERIES 265 O N 1973 D J F M A M J 1974 J A S O N D -8(12) Under the Federal funds rates contemplated in any of the alternatives, the unusually low growth rate of M1 in July would not be expected to persist in the months ahead, assuming the staff projections of nominal GNP growth are correct. Taking account of the strengthening indicated by fragmentary early-August data, M1 would be expected to grow in a 4¾-6¾ per cent range in the August-September period under alternative B. (13) Expansion in time deposits other than money market CD's at banks is expected to slow a little further over the months ahead under alternative B. While the Federal funds rate and other short-term rates may decline somewhat, the increased availability of instruments attractive to small savers (such as variable-rate debentures, money market mutual funds, and Treasury and Federal agency issues) is likely to lead to continued substitution of such instruments for Regulation Q-constrained time and savings accounts. Growth in savings accounts at nonbank thrift institutions is expected to remain quite weak under alternative B, thus continuing substantial constraint on the supply of private mortgage funds. Growth in consumer-type time and savings at both banks and nonbank thrift institutions would be even more constrained under alternative C, whereas growth in such savings would begin to recover under alternative A. (14) Business loan growth at banks is likely to be less strong over the next few months than it was during the first seven months of the year, partly in reflection of a projected low rate of inventory accumulation and partly as a result of tight bank lending policies. Growth in money market CD's also is expected to be at a more moderate pace in the months ahead. In these circumstances, bank credit growth is also expected to slow over the latter half of the year. -9(15) Demands for bank credit could be enlarged, however, should investors become more selective and should liquidity pressure become more pervasive. Under such circumstances, many borrowers, particularly those of less-than-prime quality, would be forced to fall back on bank lines. While borrowers' ability to float debt in the open market has improved since early July, yield spreads reflecting risk differentials generally remain wider than normal. Thus, markets and investor attitudes continue to be quite sensitive to shocks to confidence that might be generated by such factors as failures, or near-failures, of financial institutions or business firms. -10Proposed directive (16) Presented below ate three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. In all three alternatives, it is proposed to delete the reference to Treasury financing because the quarterly refunding announced on July 31 has been completed. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of{DEL: the of] and refunding Treasury forthcoming developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to would [DEL: achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that moderate]CONSISTENT WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER growth in monetary ahead] months the over aggregates [DEL: THAN HAS PREVAILED OVER RECENT MONTHS. Alternative B [DEL: To implement this policy, while taking account of the of] and refunding Treasury forthcoming developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to would] that achieve bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: CONSISTENT WITH moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. -11Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: the of] and refunding Treasury forthcoming developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to would [DEL: achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that moderate] CONSISTENT WITH RELATIVELY SLOW growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. (17) In the event the Committee wishes to couch the operational paragraph of the directive in terms of money market conditions, the specifications of alternative B might be associated with language indicating that "...the Committee seeks to maintain money market conditions in the neighborhood of the restrictive conditions recently prevailing, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance." STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 1 8/16/74 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 11 % growth F (8/14/74) -135 growth I M li M i J 1973 ~i ~i I I S D M J 1974 LL~hJ S SBreak in Series, Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements D I J I I J 1974 A S CHART 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 8/16/74 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6% growth for July-August 2% growth BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 I I I I 71/% growth 1973 1974 M J ,3 1974 A S STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 8/16/74 CHART 3 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 550 TOTAL RESERVES 1973 *Break in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reserve PRequirements 1974 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PERCENT 12- WEEKLY AVERAGES INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT 13 INTEREST RATES Long-term - WEEKLY AVERAGES PER CENT -11 WEEKLY FEDERAL FUNDS 10 -- EURO-DOLLARS FHA MORTGAGES 3 MONTH FNMA MONDAY AUCTION - L 11 -- 9 A A aa UTILITY NEW ISSUE FR DISCOU RATE - T GOVERNMENT BONDS 10-YEAR AVERAGES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 -7 E- 3 TREASURY BILLS MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER 3 MONTH THURSDAYS -0 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH ROWEDI 1973 1973 1974 I18114 7 1973 I17J lilI9I7I 1974 I45 57 l lI 1973 1 1 11 1974 TABLE 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) II RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE NONPANK DEPOSITS AGGREGATE RESERVES --------- PERIOD I MONTHLY (2) I 11 TOTAL RESERVES ---------- NONBORROWED RESERVES 13) I I (4) REQUIRED RESERVES --------------------------------SEASONALLY ADJUSTED -- PRIVATE DEMAND OTHER TTME DEP (5) (6) (7) (81 20,341 20,379 20,449 (20,430) 8,721 8,807 8,866 ( 8,9581 5,031 5,411 5,570 ( 5,7591 2,253 1,936 2,380 ( 1,840) CD'S AND NON DEP GOV'T AND INTERBANK LEVELS-SMILLIONSI I -------------- 1974--PAY JUN. ANNUAL (1) I 1I II1-------------------------------SEAS AOJ I NON SEAS ADJ AUGUST 16, 1974 RATES JUL. 34.270 34,795 3',066 AUG. (35,3431 34,086 34.439 34,859 (39,031) 36,523 36,731 37,445 (37.183) 33,933 33,725 34,145 134,100) OF CHANGE OUARTERLY: 1.4 6.1 6.2 20.3 21.7 18.4 9.3 9.5) 1973--4TH OTR. 1974--tST OTR. 2ND OTR. I MONTHLY 1974--MAY JUN. JUL. AUG. I JUL.-AUG. 9.4) 13.4 5.8 12.7 1.7 20.4 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 9.2 20.8 6.8 23.3 -8.4) -8.2 -7.4 14.9 -1.6) -4.1 2.2 4.1 -1.1) 9.7 11.8 8.0 12.51 7.4) ( S 6.7) 1.5) 7.1 10.3) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS JUL. 3 10 17 24 31 AUG. 7 14 I 35,164 34,994 35,107 34,921 35,190 34.961 34,583 34,991 34,830 35,087 37.446 37,102 37,828 37.514 37,338 34,011 34,462 34,653 33,873 33,649 20,437 20,916 20,674 20,326 20,483 8*854 R8,48 8,841 8,882 8,898 5,503 5,552 5,607 5,524 5,625 2,282 35,241 35,270 34,924 34,943 37,102 37,114 34,019 34,073 20,346 20,391 8,942 5,726 5,749 1,861 1,844 8,984 2,108 2.721 2,593 2,139 1 NOTEt DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESRS ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FONC MEETING OF JULY 16,1974 THF COMMITTEE AGREED 6N A RPD RANGE OF 8.75 TO 11.75 PERCENT FhR THE JULY-AUGUST PERIOD. -- - - - - -- -- - - - - - - ---------------- - ---------- - - ------ - - -- - ----------- - ---- - -------- --- -------- STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 2 AUGUST 16, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTSED) I MNEY SUPPLY NARR3W ( BROAD I PERIDO I (Ml) I IM21 I (1 I 12) I I I ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY I1 U.S. I Ft GOVT. I 11 DEPOSITS I f31 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I OTHER I TOTAL I THAN CD S I CD S (5 (4) 161 (8I IT) (7) I I MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLTONSI 1974--MAY JUN. JUL. AUG. ( NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS I 279.2 281.0 181.2 (2R2.3) DFRCCNT ANNUAL GROWTH I 592. 97.6 600.1 (603.31 I 1 477.8 48?.1 486.9 (489.6) I 3. 3.7 2.5 5.01 I I 394.7 400.0 404.2 (406.6 S81.2 313.6 316.6 318.9 f(321.1) I I )) I I I I I I I I II if II I I F 83.3 85.4 1 (85.5) I 10.7 10.3 11.2 (10.2) I OUARTERLY I 8.9 1973-4TH OTR. 11.0 3.3 9.9 7. 8. 20.4 F I I F I 6.1 12.6 15.6 23.6 12.5 8.5 I lo74--IST OTR. 7.1 7.0 2N6 OTR. I I F MONTHLY - ----1974--VAY JUN. JUL. AUG. f I I 4.7 7.7 0.9 1 4.7) F I I .3 9.7 5.0 6.4) I ( 2.8 JUL.-AUG. 3 10 24 31 AUG. I 7 P 14 PEC I NOTE: P2.1 280.6 282. 280.* 280.4 I I I 282.0 282.1 13.3 9.4 f 6.7) I ( 5.71 I I F WEEKLY LEVFLS-S*BLLTINS --- - ----------------JUL. I 16.8 I I I F 602.5 602.4 I ( I I F II I I 11 I if I 1 22.6 16.1 12.6 ( 7.11 I II II II ~- -W~-I-- I .9 11.5 8.7 8.31 I 487.0 485.3 486.2 47.0 487.6 3.1 3.3 2.1 2.1 24 488.8 487.2 3.9 4.8 II 1 -------- -------- ----- f 9.9) I f I I I 8.5) I I 402.2 403.0 403.7 405.0 406.3 I F 317.1 318.3 I 40.3 405.5 318.3 319.1 320.7 320.4 320.8 85.0 4.7 95.4 I 85.9 85.6 I 84.9 84.7 10.7 10.4 10.8 12.1 11.7 11.0 9.8 I DATA SHOWN IN PARFNTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. -I--~~~~~~~~~~~~I~ I- 1 F .1 I I I II I 99.2 98.9 600.5 599.6 601.1 l --- P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED - - ---- - ------ --------- - --- STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL August (FR) 16,1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Open Market Operations Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ 1/ RP's Net 3/ ATarget in reserve categories req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (9) available res. 5/ available (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) reserves 5/ (10) (11) (1) (2) (3) (4) 1974--Jan. Feb. March -397 -32 -64 179 30 190 -10 74 122 -100 -1,531 -328 71 1,780 1,031 9 -74 -254 143 166 698 -1,505 -358 773 -356 -323 702 -997 57 895 -875 -30 April May June 790 653 -544 172 207 176 312 185 237 -485 1,111 -984 789 2,155 -1,115 922 1,970 -673 362 866 420 -338 -2,239 74 173 207 -400 773 390 221 315 -130 July 898 125 726 -3,760 -2,011 1,601 309 -901 471 538 42 -370 207 -- --72 -6,093 4,068 -5,844 3,626 -23 -1,892 -552 -325 505 1,727 -201 -218 131 -272 --- -1,007 -1,007 1,829 494 -1,404 135 784 1,740 1,434 825 -435 -562 -87 -85 197 46 647 -795 -106 343 383 -28 355 -378 811 -469 535 466 -390 -318 648 -260 308 -61 -195 48 -12 p -533p 257p (5) (6) zN Member Bank Borrowing A Agency Issues TOTAL Open Market Operations Other 4/ Factors (8) Coupon Issues Bills & Accept. (7) Aug. Sept. Tweekly 1974--June 5 12 19 July Aug. -- --- 26 -306 3 10 292 58 176 -- 305 298 -170 128 603 484 17 24 288 446 125 -- 291 145 -426 -72 278 518r 31 1 -3 -3,787 7 14 66 -138 -- -- -3 -- -3,789 9 366 430 -589 -606 88 1,820 1,682 -161 - 43 204p 9p 43 -1 p 4 p -163p -4p 21 28 I/ 21 3/ 4/ 5/ Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Target change for July and Aug. reflects the target adopted at the July 16, 1974 FOMC meeting. Reserves to support private nohbank deposits. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) AUGUST 16, 1974 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND, BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars ------------- U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period I 1973 -- 1974 -- 1973 -- Bills s L s s (4) Low 3,796 897 1,299 -301 384 36 nigh Low 3,238 -289 2,203 -309 July 1,425 1,690 2,745 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,565 Jan. 11 Excess** Borrowing at FRB** Reserve0 m..r^ o 4 Basic Reserve Deficit J .. O IT .. 9 7----I. 3a nt.hers -hers (6) (7) 631 -240 2,561 688 163 3 -5,243 -1,831 -10,661 371 27 394 -83 3,689 776 176 13 -5,911 -2,447 -12,826 265 39 395 139 70 80 285 177 216 1,953 2,165 1,852 155 163 148 -2,460 -2,689 -3,173 - 6,106 - 4,940 - 5,355 2,804 3,441 484 793 973 226 148 276 227 239 307 1,476 1,393 1,298 126 84 41 -3,814 -4,469 -4,682 - 6,090 - 8,186 - 9,793 Feb. Mar, 3,102 2,436 1,986 540 1,619 583 254 263 239 162 184 134 1,051 1,162 1,314 18 17 32 -4,753 -5,262 -5,030 -10,893 -10,769 -11,058 Apr. May June 1,435 408 580 99 85 9 78 83 124 182 178 204 1,736 2,590 3,020 40 102 134 -3,952 -3,171 -4,445 -11,603 3 149p -3,522 - 9,555 - 9,361 High July * Aug. * -214 457 12 76 29 -45 7 14 21 28 183p 3 , 01p (8) (9) - 4,048 - 8,711 - 9,091 - 9,920 98 100 127 171 3,054 2,729 3,223 2,788 131 136 142 133 -3,521 -5,052 -4,803 -4,394 369 278 -16 *1,673 189p 2 19 p 3,435 2,640 3,175 6 3, 41p 6 3, 89p 126 137 152 155p 163p -3,794 -4,116 -3,972 -2,669 -3,111 - 8,966 * -263 * -209 50 90 63 27 144 *2,065 *2,296 * -178 * 772 87 112p 233p 124p 3,083p 3,040p 176p 160p -4,542p -5,206p - 9.93 p 1,031 1,110 778 -289 3 10 17 24 31 73p (5) 225 131 247 99 June July -76 * -145 75 26 24 * * 284 - NOTE: on (2) Sept. 1974 -- l_. Member Bank Reserve Positions Municipal (1) Aug. 1974 -- Coupon Issues I Dealer Positions Corporate B A -309 ------ -10,333 - 9,946 - 9,347 -10,178 - 9,826 - 9,758 - 8,957 3 - 9,853p -- Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreeGovernment security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Other security dealer positions are debt mehts maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal in syndicate, excluding trading positions. issues still Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. funds purchases. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY AUGUST CONFIDENTIAL 16, (FR) 1974 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent Short-Term Treasury Blls period Federal Funds (1) 1973 -- -- 1974 -- -- 160-89 Day (5) ___ Long-Term_____. FNMA U.S. Government Municipal (10-yr. Constant Auction Yilds Matur ity) Bond Buyer . (11) (10) (9) 10.50 5.38 10.75 5.50 8.52 7.29 8.30 7.26 5.59 4.99 7.54 6.42 9.37 7.69 13.55 8.81 12.25 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 10.30 8.05 10.31 8.14 6.95 5.16 8.05 6.93 10.12 8.43 Aug. Sept. 10.40 10.50 10.78 9.26 10.26 10.31 9.09 10.25 10.31 9.19 10.40 10.50 8.01 8.36 7.88 7.97 8.22 7.99 5.40 5.48 5.10 7.13 7.40 7.09 8.46 8.83 9.32 Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.01 10.03 9.95 9.14 9.11 9.28 9.15 9.06 9.44 8.08 8.91 9.13 7.90 7.90 8.00 7.94 7 94 8.04 5.05 5.18 5.12 6.79 6.73 6.74 9.01 8.84 8.78 9.65 8.97 9.35 8.86 8.00 8.64 9.05 8.09 8.69 8.83 7.97 8.56 8.21 8.12 8.46 8.22 8.23 8.42 5.22 5.20 5.41 6.99 6.96 7.21 8.71 8.48 8.53 Api . May June 10.51 11.31 11.93 9.92 10.82 11.18 9.81 10.83 11.06 9.78 10.90 10.88 8.98 9.24 9.38 8.94 9.13 9.36 5.73 6.02 6.13 7.51 7.58 7.54 9.07 9.41 9.54 July 12.92 11.93 11.83 11.83 10.20 10.04 6.68 7.81 9.84 11.45 11.60 11.85 11.97 10.70 10.85 11.23 11.45 10.63 10.75 11.13 11.75 10.50 10.50 11.00 11.50 9.23 9.28 9.49 9.50 9.14 9.18 9.48 9.65 6.01 6.13 6.33 7 51 7.49 7.53 7.62 9.54 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 13.55 13.34 13.04 12.60 12.29 11.95 12.09 12.25 11.90 11.45 11.75 12.25 11.88 11.50 11.75 11.75 12.00 12.00 11.63 11.75 7 14 21 28 12.09 12.02 11.55 11.68 11.75 11.75 11.75 11.88 8 15 12.09 High July Jan. Feb. Mar. 1974 -- ____________ Aaa Utility New Recently Offered Issue 90-119 Day (6) (7) (8) CD's New Issue-NYC 10.50 5.63 Low 1973 1-Year 90-119 Day Commercial paper (4) 10.84 5.61 High Low 1974 90-Day _ June July Aug. Daily -Aug. 5 12.23p 9.02 8.76 8.58 11.63 8.49 11.75 10.25 10.10 10.30 9.82 10.10p 6.04 9.54 9.79 10.16 10.10 10.09 10.28 6.64 6.95 6.78 6.34 7.68 7.82 7.88 7.77 9.65 6.70 7.90 9.98 10.15 lO.OOp 6.58 6.61 7.99 8.05p 9.90 10.12 7.97 n.a. -- NOTES: For columns 7, 8 and 10 the Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monay preceding the end of the statement week. in hi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. August 16, 1974 APPENDIX TABLE I RESERVS AND MONETARY VARIABLES BANK CREDIT MONEY STOCK MEASURES... RESERVES able to lupprt Per(1)iod (1) T Adjusted M OTHER. MEASURES Revised Series t oas loans and Revised Inest() (8) To (9) (9) Srle Time other Thrift inattuti M Totrives (2) (3) () (5) (6) Credit (7) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (Per Cent than (10) (10) posits (11) (11) Son- 1 CD's (12) (12) (13) (13) (Dollar Change Annual Rates of Growth) IT.S (time (14) in Billions) Annually: 1970 1971 1972 1973 +6.0 +7.2 +10.6 +7.8 Semi-Annually 1st Half 1972 2nd Half 1972 +10.8 +9.9 +6.7 +8.6 1st Half 2nd Half +11.0 1st Half +9.3 +7.8 +7.7 +7.2 +8.7 +6.9 +10.1 +9.3 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0 +15.7 +16.3 +4.4 +6.0 -0.2 +0.6 +10.7 +6.1 +18.6 +0.8 +1.2 +1.8 +20.5 +2.9 +17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0 +11.1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4 +8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6 +13.6 +14.7 +15.4 +14.8 +13.8 +12.3 +11.0 +4.1 +8.3 +11.5 +1 6 +12.7 +10 3 +7.8 +13.8 +7.0 +16.6 +9.6 +20.8 +10.2 +10.4 +11.8 +1.3 +13,3 +14.9 +13.9 +20.0 +10.6 +12.4 +11.2 +12.8 +11.3 +14.4 +7.7 +10.4 +19.4 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +13.5 +6.4 Quarterly: let 2nd 3rd 4th Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1972 1972 1972 1972 +8.7 +12.6 +4.4 +15.1 +9.1 +12.6 -0.9 +9.2 +9.6 +6.9 +10.4 +12.2 +10.5 +11.6 +10.2 +12.1 +15.7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8 +14.5 +15.7 +14.3 +14.8 +15.5 +11.7 +12.7 +11.4 +15.9 +14.9 +17.8 +14.2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1973 1973 1973 1973 +6.4 +6.9 +10.6 +6.1 -3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4 +7.8 +12.5 +14.2 +1.4 +14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3 +19.9 +12.7 +12.7 +6.3 +22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1 +9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6 +15.9 +11.5 +15.4 +23.7 +12.2 +8.7 +17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +14.5 +18.2 +5.2 +7.7 +7.4 +3.6 +16.5 +22.3 +28.2 +22.5 +18.8 +11.2 +12.8 +18.9 +9.8 +3.7 +3.3 +11.3 1st Qtr. 1974 2nd Qtr. 1974 +1.7 +20.4 Monthly: 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. +30.1 -21.1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +0.5 +27.2 -5.1 +9.4 +12.1 -4.3 +10.5 +26.8 -38.5 +1.8 +20.1 +0.5 +0.2 +24.9 -13.5 +21.9 +26.7 -1.6 +14.4 +15.9 -2.9 +10.3 +10.0 +9.9 +17.3 +18.5 +10.1 +13.3 +1.0 -6.3 +9,4 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July p +35.7 -24.8 -5.4 +32.7 +20.8 +6.8 +23.3 +45.9 -30.4 -10.0 +19.0 -8.2 -7.4 414.9 +6.9 -0.3 +11.9 +19.7 +21.7 +18.4 +9.3 +1.5 +1. 1 +6.2 +20.3 +5.6 +6.4 +9.0 +7.7 +8.9 +8.5 +6.4 +20. 9 +10.8 +8.1 +6.6 +8.6 +10.9 +11.9 +6.3 +5.0 +3.9 +9.3 +10.1 +9.6 +7.1 +10.9 +8.3 +7.0 +4.2 +7.9 +4.9 +9.7 +11.1 +22.3 +15.4 +11.0 +11.1 +8.6 +17.0 +5.7 +1.6 +2.7 +5.6 +12.5 +1.3 +11.3 +31.6 +16.8 +13.3 +9.4 +14.7 +15.5 +16.8 +16.0 +10.2 +7.8 +13.1 +0.7 +3.7 +2.4 +3.6 -0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +11.4 +9.7 +4.6 +7.6 +11.2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9 +0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +0.1 +8.6 +4. 1 +4.9 +15.6 +1.2 +1.7 +12.9 +7.0 +9.6 +10.0 +10.8 +10.7 +7.6 +13.0 +10.8 +16.1 +11.4 +10.1 +13.7 +11.6 +8.7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2.3 +4.2 +6.8 +7.2 +8.6 +1.3 +4.4 +5.5 +3.8 +2.9 +0.7 +1.9 +2.4 +0.4 -2.9 -1.8 +0.8 +0.6 -0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.2 -0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +21.8 +16.0 +13.8 +14.9 +6.6 +9.0 +7.7 +30.5 +22.6 +5.8 +12.3 +16.7 +9.9 +13.8 +8.6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6 +2.5 +3.3 +3.2 +2.7 +1.1 +1.1 +7.7 +5.8 +2.1 +2.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 -0.4 +0.9 T/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging bnd of current month and end of previous month reported data. NOTE: Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. p - Preliminary. August 16, 1974 APPENDIX TABLE II RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) RESERVES . Available to Support NonPvt. Totall borrowed Period Deposits MONEY STOCK MEASURES_S Pvt. De. Total I (1) (2) 29,193 31,299 31,410 28,861 31,173 30,360 27,099 28,965 29,053 221.2 235.2 255.7 172.2 182.6 198 7 Mar. 32,199 31,634 31,910 31,037 30,040 30,085 29,439 29,368 29,621 256.7 257.9 258.1 Apr. May June 32,300 32,445 32,459 30,589 30,602 30,608 29,867 30,114 30,548 July Aug. Sept. 33,576 33,906 34,173 31,622 31,741 32,321 Oct. Nov. Dec. 34,942 34,857 35,105 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June (6) M3 Pro ment (10) (11) NonDep. und U.S. Gov't Demand Set 642.7 727.9 822.8 332.9 364.3 406.4 438.5 487.6 559.0 229.2 270.9 313.3 203.9 237.9 269.9 217.5 254.8 297.2 199.6 200.4 200.1 529.6 532.4 830.2 534.7 840.4 409.7 413.5 421.2 567.3 578.5 586.8 317.6 323.6 331.2 272.9 274.5 276.6 300.6 303.5 305.7 6.7 6.1 7.6 259.4 262.4 265.5 200.8 203.4 206.2 538.4 543 7 549.5 846.4 854.1 862.6 426.6 430.5 434.5 593.2 601.4 605.5 337.4 342.7 345.9 278.9 281.4 283.9 308.0 310.4 313.1 7.1 5.2 5.3 31,358 32,038 32,394 266.4 266.3 265.5 206.9 206.4 205.3 552.1 555.1 556.8 867.1 870.7 873.5 437.6 443.8 445.9 612.8 622.1 624.8 349.6 355.1 358.0 285.7 288.8 291.4 315.0 315.6 316.7 3.9 4.8 5.0 33,466 33,463 33,807 32,845 32,714 32,912 266.6 269.2 271.4 206.1 208.2 209.7 561.9 567.3 572.1 880.3 887.7 894.8 446.5 447.5 449.6 628.8 632.7 634.6 359.1 360.1 363.5 295.3 298.1 300.6 318.5 320.4 322.7 6.0 5.8 4.9 35,850 35,108 34,949 34,799 33,916 33,634 32,799 32,791 33,117 270.6 273.1 275.2 208.7 210.4 211.9 575.1 581.2 585.0 900.1 908.3 914.6 454.3 454.8 459.1 642.4 650.7 659.8 370.1 374.7 377.5 304.6 308.1 309.8 325.0 327.1 329.6 6.2 3.0 3.7 35,902 36,523 36,731 34,166 33,933 33,725 37,445 34,145 33,660 34,270 34,795 35,066 276.7 277.8 279.6 280.0 212.8 213.4 214.8 215.1 588.5 591.0 596.2 599.1 919.9 923.1 929.2 933.0 471.2 477.8 483.1 486.9 668.6 674.3 679.3 686.7 387.1 394.4 399.9 404.5 311.8 313.3 316.5 319.1 331.4 332.1 333.0 333.9 4.5 3.8 3.7 2.5 3 10 17 24 35,398 35,040 36,161 36,003 33,895 33,846 34,345 34,064 33,240 33,117 33,794 33,722 276.3 276.4 278.7 276.3 212.9 212.3 214.6 212.4 586.6 587.7 590.6 588.4 466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8 381.8 385.1 386.7 388.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 I 8 34,585 34,768 34,595 33,569 32,841 34,277 34,151 22 29 36,742 36,385 36,572 36,659 36,447 34,250 34,434 275.3 277.1 278.0 279.2 276.7 211.5 212.7 213.7 214.6 212.2 587.9 589.5 591.3 592.1 590.8 473.8 476.4 476.6 478.5 478.4 390.5 392.1 393.8 394.9 396.6 4.4 5.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 June 5 12 19 26 36,514 36,122 36,967 36,851 33,460 33,393 33,744 34,063 34,754 34,467 34.963 34,775 279.8 279.6 280.2 278.9 215.3 214.6 215.4 214.2 595.1 595.4 597.1 596.1 481.9 482.5 482 9 482 .8 397.2 398.4 400.4 401.4 3.7 4.7 3.5 3.3 July 3 10 17 24 37,446 37,102 37,828 37,514 37,338 34,011 34,462 34,653 33,873 33,649 35,164 34,994 35,107 34,921 35,199 280.8 279.3 280.9 279.2 279.2 216.0 214.2 216.1 214.3 214.4 598.1 597.8 599.4 598.7 600.2 487.9 485.3 486.2 487.0 487.6 402.4 403.2 404.0 405.3 406.6 3.1 3.3 2.1 2.1 2.4 37,102 34,019 35,241 280.8 215.4 601.3 488.8 405.3 3.9 XONTHL: 9 7 3 1 -- J:n. Feb. July WEEKLY: 1974--April p May 15 31p Aug. 7 p 34,104 835.8 (9) Depo's _ 425.2 473.0 525.5 Revised 1 Time OTHER Thrift Institution (8) C4) C5) M2 . Time Other Than (7) ia s tes ANNUALLY: Dec. 1970 Dec. 1971 Dec. 1972 1/ (3) tS6_ IhIT Total Adj. Loans & Credit InvestTotal M1 (12) Revised Series Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M 3, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. p - Preliminary. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) M2 Ml 1972 M Q M Q M Q I 9.0 5.3 12.3 11.0 13.5 12.5 II 6.2 8.2 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.7 8.7 8.2 10.8 10.8 13.3 13.0 IV 9.9 8.4 10.6 10.2 12.0 12.2 I 3.8 7.0 7.0 8.6 10.2 II 11.5 7.5 11.1 III -- 5.6 8.9 4.5 Ir 5.6 5.8 9.0 8.9 II r 6.4 7.3 7.7 6.4 III 1973 IV 1974 M3 5.3 11.0 10.6 9.0 5.1 7.5 9.8 7.9 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. r = Revised data. Appendix Table IV Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M3 M1 M Q _ M Q Alt. A 1974 III IV III & IV Combined 4.9 7.3 6.1 4.9 7.1 6.0 6.8 7.2 8.2 7.5 7.9 7.6 5.6 6.9 6.3 5.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.3 4.5 3.3 3.9 5.3 3.5 4.4 6.7 6.2 Alt. B 1974 III IV III & IV Combined 4.4 5.9 5.2 4.7 6.0 5.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 7.1 6.5 6.8 Alt. C 1974 III IV III & IV Combined 4.0 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.7 6.0 4.6 5.3 7.0 5.1 6.0 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table V Money Supply Growth Rates M1 less Foreign M1 less M1 1973 1974 NOTE: Foreign Official Deposits Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks January 4.7 5.2 5.3 February 5.6 5.6 6.7 March 0.9 0.5 0.9 April 6.0 6.5 6.6 May 13.9 13.0 11.8 June 14.2 14.7 14.4 July 4.1 3.6 August -0.5 -0.5 September -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 October 5.0 5.5 4.6 November 11.7 10.9 10.1 December 9.8 9.9 8.2 January -3.5 -4.0 -5.0 February 11.1 11.2 11.3 March 9.2 10.2 April 6.5 3.9 4.0 May 4.8 6.6 5.8 June 7.8 6.1 6.2 July 1.7 3.0 1.3 2.8 9.9 Growth rates from January 1974 to date have been revised to reflect changes due to April 1974 call report benchmark adjustments to M 1. APPENDIX TABLE VI Comparison of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates Old Revised Old Revised Quarterly average: 1974--1st Half +7.7 +6.6 +9.3 +8.7 QI QII +6.7 +8.5 +5.8 +7.3 +9.9 +8.5 +9.4 +7.9 1974--1st Half +7.1 6.0 +8.9 +8.4 QI QII +7.1 +7.0 5.6 6.4 +9.9 +7.8 +9.0 +7.7 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. -2.7 +12.9 +11.0 -3.5 +11.1 +9.2 +6.9 +13.6 +8.9 +6.3 +12.7 +7.8 Apr. May June +8.3 +4.7 +7.7 +6.5 +4.8 +7.8 +8.2 +5.3 +9.7 +7.2 +5.1 +10.6 July +0.9 1.7 +5.0 +5.8 Month end: Monthly: 

Federal Reserve (1974, August 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740820

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740820,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740820},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}