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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) July 12, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) July 12, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Following an increase in M1 at a 7.3 per cent annual rate in June, growth in July now appears likely to be at a rate a little over 5 per cent. M1 growth for the June-July target period thus is estimated at about 6¼ per cent, well within the range of tolerance set by the Committee at its last meeting. M2 growth is also expected to decelerate between June and July, with the June growth rate at 9½ per cent and the July projection at about 7 per cent. The 2-month growth rate is expected to be about 8¼ per cent, a little below the top of the range of tolerance. RPD growth, on the other hand, is projected at about a 15 per cent rate for the 2-month target period, above the top of its range of tolerance, as CD growth was stronger than expected. -2Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in June-July Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent Range of Tolerance Latest Estimates 6.2 8.3 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ 15.1 10-13 RPD's 11¾ 1/ Avg. for statement week ending June 19 11.85 11.97 June 26 July 3 13.55 13.34 July 10 Range shown is that set at the June 18 meeting of the Committee. In a telephone conference on July 5, the Committee agreed that for the time being the Desk should not press hard to reduce the funds rate, which had averaged 13.55 per cent in latest statement week, in view of the likelihood that the high level was primarily a consequence of technical factors which might well prove temporary. Subsequently, a majority of members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of July 10 that System operations be undertaken promptly to reduce the average funds rate to 13 per cent, on the understanding that the rate would be permitted to decline to the neighborhood of 12 per cent should money market factors work in that direction. (2) Growth in the bank credit proxy over June and July is expected to average close to 10 per cent, a less rapid expansion than in other recent months. Business loan expansion, while weak in early June, spurted from mid-June to early July, particularly at large banks. An important share of this borrowing reflects a shift of financing demands to banks that would ordinarily have been met in the commercial paper market -3or by the issuance of corporate securities. Some firms that lack the highest credit rating have been prevented from tapping the commercial paper market because of investor unwillingness to buy their paper. In the market for corporate and municipal securities a number of issues--especially by public utilities--were canceled due to rapidly rising interest rates and reluctance on the part of underwriters to make bids in the atmosphere of rate uncertainty. In this environment, there has been some market discussion of possible capital controls, which may have also contributed to recent borrowing at banks. (3) In June deposit growth at nonbank thrift institutions (including interest credited) strengthened to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7½ per cent from the depressed April-May level. This improvement is probably temporary; partial data for early July indicate large outflows at both New York savings banks and large California S&L's following the mid-year interest crediting. (4) Most short- and long-term interest rates have risen sharply since the last meeting of the Committee. In the short-term area commercial paper, CD's, and bankers' acceptances increased by around 1 percentage point to levels ranging from 12¾-12¾ per cent in the 3-month area. Bank prime rates generally have been increased to 12 per cent, but this level is low relative to currently prevailing short-term rates. In contrast, short-term Treasury bill rates have declined somewhat on balance, for three main reasons: the prime quality characteristic of bills, active demands from foreign and small investors, and recent large seasonal debt repayment by the Treasury. Corporate -4and municipal bond yields have increased by about 90 basis points since mid-June; even larger increases in these rates were forestalled by cancelations and withdrawals of new issues. subject to much less upward pressure. Treasury bond rates were As rates have adjusted upwards, the ability of a number of borrowers with less than the highest quality credit ratings to obtain funds in accustomed financial markets has been impaired--including some industrial and real estate commercial paper issuers, utilities, and bank holding companies. In addition, a few regional commercial banks are experiencing problems in rolling over CD's, especially in the national market, and some banks are reported to be having difficulty placing their acceptances. Thus, yield spreads representing risk differentials have widened markedly. (5) During the first statement week following the June Committee meeting the Federal funds rate edged up slightly to 11.97 per cent. Thereafter, the funds rate jumped to record highs, averaging 13.55 per cent in the week of July 3 and 13.34 per cent in the week of July 10. The rise in the funds rate was influenced by churning around the mid-year statement date and the July 4 holiday, uncertainties in both domestic and international financial markets, the increasingly sensitive state of CD and commercial paper markets, and perhaps a desire on the part of lenders to obtain a risk premium on some of their placements. In this environment, banks became more cautious in managing their money positions, and some city banks--despite the high cost of Federal funds-apparently wanted to stay out of the discount window in order to establish a clean record in liquidity pressures grow still should needs the case of future borrowing more intense. borrow at the window became evident in The reluctance of banks to the week ending July 10, when member -5bank borrowing, other than emergency borrowing, declined to a level of $1.3 billion despite the record Federal funds rate. Excess reserves in early July also were somewhat higher than they have been recently, although this was in large part influenced by statement date windowdressing. (6) At the time of the telephone conference of the FOMC on July 5, chances seemed good that the funds rate would recede with a continuation of normal reserve-supplying operations. On the basis of the discussion at that meeting, the Desk continued to resist the high Federal funds rate without injecting an unusually large amount of reserves. Subsequently, however, the funds rate remained well above 13 per cent, and a majority of the members concurred in the Chairman's recommendation of July 10 that System operations be undertaken promptly with a view to reducing the average funds rate to 13 per cent, on the understanding that the rate would be permitted to decline to the neighborhood of 12 per cent should money market factors work in that direction. Despite large reserve-supplying operations, the funds rate remained about, 13½ per cent on Thursday and Friday, but if reserve projections turn out to be right it should decline somewhat after the weekend. (7) The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods. Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-monthof-quarter basis. Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix table IV for the three alternatives presented in the next section. -6Average of Past Three Calendar Years 1971 -1973 Past Twelve Months June '74 over June '73 Past Six Months June '74 over TDe. _'7 3 Past three Past Months Month June '74 June'74 over over M vl '74 .May '7A Total reserves 8.5 10.2 10.9 20.3 6.6 Nonborrowed reserves 7.6 7.0 1.3 1.0 -7.6 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.8 11.1 13.2 20.2 18.2 7.0 5.8 7.0 6.8 7.3 M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 10.4 8.7 8.8 7.6 9.3 M3 (M2 plus deposits at Thrift institutions) 11.7 7.9 8.1 6.6 7.8 Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.5 11.2 14.9 20.8 13.1 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 12.8 12.1 13.9 11.5 7.8 1.0 1.8 3.4 5.2 2.2 -.2 -.1 Concepts of Money Ml (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/ .2 .5 .3 Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on average of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesdayof-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments Specifications for alternative suggested policy stances (8) are summarized below for Committee consideration (with more detailed figures shown in the table on p. 7a). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Targets (3rd & 4th qtrs. combined) 7 5½ 4 8 6½ 5 9 7½ 6 M1 4¾-6¾ 4-6 3¼-5¼ M2 6½-8½ 5½-7½ 4¾-6¾ RPD 10½-12½ 9¾-ll¾ 9-11 10-12 11-13 12-14 M1 M2 Credit proxy Associated ranges for July-August Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) (9) Of the alternatives presented, alternative B represents continuation of the longer-run target path for M1 adopted at the last Committee meeting. In that alternative, the annual growth rate for the second half of 1974 is 5½ per cent. This is slightly above the 5¼ per cent rate adopted at the last meeting simply because the June level for M1 turned out to be slightly lower than estimated at that time; the level set for December is unchanged from the previous meeting. (10) The specifications of alternative B would contemplate a Federal funds rate in an 11-13 per cent range between now and the next Committee meeting, and M1 growth for July-August in a 4-6 per cent annual MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -- 1 - 285 5/4% RATE OF GROWTH JUNE '73 TO JUNE '74 . ... ....- *--* ....*** .... 5.8% -1275 .***/ -1265 I _________________________ 0 N 1973 D J F M A M J 1974 J A S 0 N D -7aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A 1974 June July Aug. Set. Dec. 280.9 282.2 M1 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 280.9 280.9 282.1 282.0 282 9 283.8 286.6 597.4 601.2 597.4 601.0 604.0 606.8 616.7 597.4 600.9 603.2 605.2 612.3 930.9 936.1 941.0 946.6 963.6 930.9 935.8 939.5 943.5 956.4 930.9 935.7 5.2 4.7 6.7 7.2 5.4 5.5 6.2 3.5 7.0 4.6 6.7 6.3 6.3 4.7 4.3 3.7 290.9 290.9 288.8' 3A Quarters: 1974 3rd Q. 4th Q. 621.7 938.4 941.0 949.8 Rates of Growth 6.1 8.0 5.0 6.2 4.1 3.9 5.6 6.0 5.1 4.7 4.7 3.8 Months: July Aug. 7.6 7.6 Adjusted Credit * Pro y 1974 7.2 6.0 RPD Total Reserves Alt. C Alt. B At A A!A. B Alt. C 36,723 37,396 37,082 36,723 37,376 37,044 34,790 35,151 35,451 34,790 35,131 35,413 34,790 35,111 35,375 37,416 37,304 37,208 35,738 55,626 35,531 38,821 3?,485 38,121 36,615 36,286 35,929 10.9 9.8 9.6 7.4 8.5 4.5 12,5 10.2 11.8 9.6 11.1 Alt, A Alt. B Alt. C Alt, A June July Aug. 483.0 485.7 490.1 483.0 485.6 489.4 483.0 485.4 488.6 36,723 37,416 37,120 Sept. 494.6 493.1 491.5 Dec. 505.4 501.6 497.1 Quarters; 1974 3rd Q. 4th Q. Months 9.6 8.7 8.4 6.9 7.0 4.6 7.5 15,0 1?..7 5.3 9.8 22.7 22.0 21.4 o.3 . July Aug. 6.7 10.9 6.5 9.4 -9.5 -10.1 -10.7 9.0 -8rate range. The funds rate centers on 12 per cent, which would represent an easing from the money market conditions prevailing over the past two weeks. Such a funds rate would probably lead to some relaxation in pressures on short- and long-term markets, partly because investors and borrowers would come to believe that monetary policy was a little less restrictive than had appeared to be the case in the most recent weeks. Any drop in market rates is likely to be modest in size and short-lived, however, given the inflationary environment, continued strong credit demands, and the forthcoming Treasury, Federal Financing Bank, and Agency financings (both to raise cash and to refund maturing issues). Large demands for U.S. securities by foreign official accounts, of course, could modify this rate outlook appreciably in particular market sectors. (11) On July 31, the Treasury will announce the terms on which it will refund $4.4 billion of publicly held securities maturing in midAugust. A modest amount of new cash may also be raised in early August, and looking ahead to September, the Treasury will probably have to raise about $3 billion of additional new cash. Private credit demands are also expected to be substantial in both short- and long-term markets. With markets increasingly cautious--and yield spreads between low and high quality issues widening further--a sizable part of the market demand may be diverted to banks as less than prime grade borrowers are forced to fall back on credit lines. Thus, pressures on banks are likely to remain intense. (12) The ability of banks to finance additional loan demands is expected to be relatively limited, though. With growth in demand deposits and consumer-type time deposits constrained, banks will be -9under pressure to issue new CD's. market receptivity to CD's is However, except for the prime names, in some question. In general, the recent concern with liquidity exposure, on the part of both banks and investors, will probably reduce the pace at which new CD's will be offered. As a result, bank credit growth under alternative B is projected at around an 8½ per cent annual rate over the third quarter, substantially less than in the first half of the year. This rate of expansion would probably mean that banks will have to cut back sharply on acquisitions of securities, particularly municipal and Federal agency issues. Thus, interest rates in intermediate and longer-term markets would likely come under renewed upward pressure as time goes on. The bank prime loan rate would probably also rise somewhat further. (13) Under alternative B pressures on thrift institutions would be expected to be somewhat greater than during the second quarter. Growth in deposits at mutuals and savings and loan associations is expected to drop slightly to about a 3½ per cent annual rate, making no allowance for Citicorp and similar issues--the timing, terms, and volume of which are still unknown. Rough estimates based on the terms originally announced suggested that about half the funds for the $850 million Citicorp issue would come out of thrift institutions, about a quarter out of banks, and a quarter from other market instruments. For a one-month period, this would represent a reduction in deposits at thrift institutions by 1½ per cent at an annual rate and in consumer-type time deposits at banks by ¾ per cent at an annual rate. -10(13) Alternatives A and C specify faster and slower rates of growth in monetary aggregates, respectively, than alternative B. Alternative C contemplates little change from the Federal funds rate that has come to prevail in recent weeks, and this would be expected to lead to a slowing in the growth rate of M1 to around 4 per cent over the second half of this year. The market is currently in process of adjusting to a funds rate in the 13 per cent area, although the process of adjustment does not appear to be complete. Under this alternative, interest rates would likely rise further in the weeks immediately ahead, and would rise by more than under alternative B over the longer run. Between now and the next Committee meeting, the 3-month commercial paper rate might move up to the 13 per cent area, the CD rate would adjust upward, and upward pressures on the prime loan rate would be very strong given these still higher market rates. Inflows to thrift institutions would be further curtailed, and the mortgage market--apart from Government support--would come under even greater constraint than at present. (14) Under alternative A--which contemplates M1 growth at a 7 per cent annual rate over the second half of the year--the Federal funds rate would be expected to decline to around 11 per cent between now and the next Committee meeting, probably stimulating a fairly marked decline of interest rates over a broad maturity spectrum. Interest rate declines would be intensified in the short run as market attitudes with respect to monetary policy shift and as Government security dealers begin to cover short positions. However, given the size of prospective borrowing demands and the concern over inflation, rate declines would -11not be likely to cumulate. For example, recently postponed municipal and corporate offerings would probably be re-offered shortly under the circumstances, and this would tend to moderate downward rate pressures. The position of banks and thrift institutions would ease under this alternative, though remaining on the tight side as compared with historical experience, since an 11 per cent Federal funds rate implies a structure of market rates still quite attractive relative to present Regulation Q ceilings. (15) The possibility of a credit crunch in financial markets cannot be ignored, especially under alternative C. Such a development could be triggered by a series of failures of financial or industrial concerns, here or abroad. This could lead to sharply higher rates and a drying up of credit flows in markets where there is perceived to be heightened credit risk and to lower rates in safe markets, such as the Treasury securities market. Many borrowers would not be able to obtain credit, and some bank and other institutional to tap their usual sources of funds. lenders would not be able Under the circumstances, remedial action by the System would be expected, either through the market or through the discount window. As a result, whatever specifications are adopted by the Committee would very likely have to be superseded, at least temporarily, by other operating criteria. It should be recognized in any event that the various specifications presented are more uncertain than usual since the situation in financial markets and the economy is unprecedented in the postwar period. -12Proposed directive language (16) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. For all three alternatives, it is proposed to include a reference to Treasury financing because the regular August refunding will be announced on July 31. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY REFUNDING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: restrictive] prevailing the about maintain ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE that]CONSISTENT provided AND money market conditions [DEL: WITH GROWTH IN the monetary aggregates AT ABOUT THE RATES PREVAILING the within rates at growing be to appear OVER RECENT MONTHS [DEL: tolerance]. of ranges specified Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY REFUNDING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: restrictive] prevailing the maintain the] that provided AND money market conditions [DEL: ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE THAT WOULD MODERATE GROWTH IN monetary aggregates OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD of ranges specified the within rates at growing be [DEL: appear to tolerance]. -13Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY REFUNDING AND OF developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE restrictive] prevailing the about maintain [DEL: the] that provided AND money market conditions [DEL: THAT WOULD SLOW APPRECIABLY THE GROWTH IN monetary aggregates OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD [DEL: ranges specified the within rates at growing be to appear of tolerance]. (17) In the event that the Committee again wishes to couch the operational paragraph of the directive in terms of prevailing money market conditions, the specifications of alternative C might be associated with the language used in the directive adopted at the last meeting-namely, that ". . .the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing restrictive money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance." STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 1 7/12/74 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 13%% growth -138 I I I M A M 1974 I I M I J 1973 II I I S i D I i M J 1974 i I S SBreak in Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements I D I J Z CHART 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 7/12/74 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 1973 1974 M A M 1974 J J CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 7/12/74 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS TOTAL RESERVES A,^M -4 34 k04 iii I 1973 SBreak in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reterve Requirements ~lI I 1974 i i CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES 13 80 13 34 INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Short-term PERCENT 12 FEDERAL FUNDS PERCENT - 13 INTEREST RATES Long-term PERCENT 11 - WEEKLY AVERAGES WEEKLY AVERAGES WEEKLY S- S S1 EURO-DOLLARS FHA MORTGAGES 3 MONTH FNMA MONDAY AUCTION 11 - - Aaa 9 UTILITY NEW ISSUE F.R. DISCOL RATE r GOVERNMENT BONDS 10-YEAR AVERAGES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 !D MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH THURSDAYS PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4 6 MONTH I9733 1973 1974 3OWEI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1973 1 1 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 1974 1 5 1 174 1 17 1 1.1 1973 191741 1974 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 1 JULY 12, BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) II AGGREGATE RESERVES I--------------------PERIOD SEAS ADJ (1) REOUIRED RESERVES ----------------------------------------- RFSERVES AVAILABLE FOR S PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS I 1974 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SII---------------------------------------- II I NON SEAS ADJ II I (21 NONBORROWED I RESERVES I PRIVATE PFMAND 13) (4) 15) 35,902 36.523 36,723 (37,3961 34,166 33,933 33,717 134,367) TOTAL RESERVES II I OTHER TIME DEP 161 CD'S AND NCN DEP GOV'T AND INTERBANK (7) (8) 4,416 5,031 5,411 ( 5,6141 2,242 2,253 19933 ( 2,265) MONTHLY LFVELS-SMILLIONSI - ------------- I I 1974--APR. MAY JUN. JUL. ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ---- ---------- -----QUARTERLY: 33,660 34,270 34.790 (35,131) 33,743 34,086 34,434 (34,923) 20,411 20,341 20,360 (?0,435) 8,651 8,721 8,807 1 8,868) I 1973--4TH OTR. 1.4 6.1 13.4 5.8 12.7 1974--1ST QTR. ?NO QTR. 6.2 20.2 1.7 20.3 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 9.2 7.1 MONTHLY: 1974--APR. MAY JUN. JUL. 19.7 21.7 18.2 11.8) I 32.7 20.8 6.6 22.0) 7.1 -4.1 2.3 3.2) -0.4 9.7 11.8 S 8.3) 15.1) ( 14.3) JUN.-JUL. 10.0 -8.2 -7.6 (23.11 I I S 2.8) 7.7) ( 10.1) WFEKLY LEVELS-SMILLInNS JUN. 5 12 1 19 26 JUL. - ---- 1 3 10 ,-,,------ -- 34,754 34,467 34,974 34,780 34,179 33,907 34,702 34,611 36,514 36,122 36,980 36,844 33,460 33,393 33,757 34,056 20,487 20,145 20,512 20,370 8,727 8,789 8,827 8,835 5,316 5,401 5,376 5,471 1,760 1,656 2,006 2,064 35,097 34,992 34,894 34,579 37,374 37*063 33,940 34,422 20,441 20,370 8,855 8853 5,503 5.552 2,277 2,072 - --------- ------ - ----- L -- ----- I------~ NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF JUNE 16,1974 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 10.0 TP 13.5 PERCENT FOR THE JUNE-JULY PERIOD. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 2 JULY 12, MONETARY AGGREGATES CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) (ACTUAL AND ---------------------------------- ----- ----- - ---------- - --- ------------- -- - ----- - --- --------- ---------MONEY SUPPLY BROAD ( NARROW (M2) I I(M1 I I I PFRIOP ----------------------------------- - -------(1) I (2) I t ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY - --------- I II II II U.S. GOVT. DEPOSITS --- I--- I I I (5) 1 I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS - ------------- ------------ -- --- - -------- (4) (3) SAVINGS DEPOSITS TIME AN I I OTHER CD S I THAN CD S I TOTAL (B (71 16) I I I I MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS II I --- - I 1974--APP. MAY JUN. JUL. I PEPCENT ANNUAL GROWT --------------OUARTERLY 78.1 779.2 280.9 (282.1 I 7.1 6.8 I I 1 9. 7.6 I I JUN. 5 12 19 26 I I (I I II I I I I I 281.2 280.9 281.5 280.4 I I 596.7 97.1 598.6 597. I 3 P 10 PFI 281.? 286.9 I 598.4 9.6 487.6 485.8 NOTE: I 0.8 22.6 16.1 (14.4) I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I P4.1 I 317.2 3118.6 P PE - 10.6 10.1 0,7 10.4 81 l. 82.5 83.5 315.7 316.7 317.0 317.1 I I ----- --------------- ------------ ------ I I I (10.3) I 402.5 403.8 3.2 3.4 . 5.8 11.5 ( 9.1) I I DATA SH WN IN PARENTHFSES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. --- ------------------------------ I I (15.4) I II I I ------1------------------- -------------- ---- -- - ------ - ------ - I 397.6 398.7 400.5 401.2 3.7 4.7 3.5 3.3 481.9 482.5 482.9 482.9 If JUL. 9.6 10.7 10.3 (10.4) 12.5 .5 I I I II II I I 15.6 23.6 I ( o.P ( 8.?) 6.7 I I I 31.6 16.8 13.1 ( 6.5) P.2 5.3 9.3 ( 7.2) 8.3 4.7 7.3 ( 5.1) rI 8.5 20.8 II ----------------------- I 75.4 81.2 83.4 (85.9) 12.6 6.1 3.3 I1 I I I I I I II II I 11.0 8.9 1074--1ST 0TR. 2Nn OTR. WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLINS I 312.1 313.6 316.6 (319.0) 1 r 1973--4TH QTR. JUN.-JUL. I 387.4 94.7 400.0 (404.8) I ----- MONTHLY -----1974--APP. MAY JUN. JUL. I P 4.5 3.8 3.8 ( 2.4) 471.2 477.8 483.0 (485.61 590.2 592.8 597.4 (601.0) I 85.3 81.2 10.7 10.3 I I ~-----------------------PRELIMINARY PARTIALLY ESTIMATED -------------------------------------- 1974 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) July 12, 1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) - - - , hills A .-._ A ccept. Er Open Market Operations 1/ RP's Agency , l gues __I gues rI-* I 1/ Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Other 4/ Member A A..,-- i BD «1k F rt*- - Open Market Coupon . TrVrTA U (4) (5) pe L1 - ns , Ia B I a14.1 (7) (6) a~ _--- t_r Z. in reserve categories. STarget req. res. againsq available res.5/J available 5/ . a d ~ v ~ -\ iJ (8) / ireslgvessi (10) (9) (11) Monthly 1973 -- Dec. 1,862 -831 1,386 1,336 -101 -759 - Jan. -397 -32 -64 -100 1,531 -328 71 1,780 1,031 9 -74 -254 143 166 790 653 -544 -485 1,111 -984 789 2,155 -1,115 922 1,970 -673 526 267 176 127 80 220 494 446 -2,609 3,808 939 761 622 -2,281 3,873 5 12 19 26 42 -370 -6,093 4,068 -1,007 1,740 3 10 17 24 31 292 58 -170 128 1974 Feb. March April 'Tay utne -70 546 475 698 -1,505 -358 773 -356 -323 702 -997 57 895 -875 362 866 419 -338 -2,239 27 173 207 -402 773 390 175 315 -130 1,103 483 454 86 -692 218 -540 360 1,111 517 -531 -364 -592 -1,258 -136 80 -24 497 145 -461 710 -397 -275 -206 150 -5,844 3,626 -1,007 1,434 -23 -1,892 1,829 825 -551 -325 494 -435 580 1,740 4 -1, 05p -582p -201 -218 137? -101p 207 -259 7 81p 91 - p 603 484 197 46 646 -792 -170p 399p 390p -58p 83p - 89p -30 July Aug. Weekly 1974 - May 1 8 15 22 29 June Jul, 1T -306 - - L .I _L Irl 3 2 r Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Inclides matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, Restrves to support private nonhank deposits. Target change for June and July reflects the target adopted at the Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were I auctions. and other F.R. accounts. June 18, L974 FOMC meeting. adopted d uring the month. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL July 12, 1974 Table (FR) 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills (1) Period Coupon Issues (2) Dealer Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4) Excess** Reserves (5) Member ,Bank Reserve Positions Basic. Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** 38 Others 8 New York Total Seasonal (6) (7) (8) (9) L973 -- High Low 1 3,796 897 1,299 -301 197 0 384 36 631 -240 2,561 688 163 3 -5,243 -1,831 -10,661 - 4,048 .9/, -- High Low 3,238 -289 2,203 -145 253 0 371 43 394 -83 3,605 776 142 13 -5,911 -2,447 -12,826 - 8,711 9,1 -- June 2,281 562 33 120 234 1,851 75 -3,507 - 6,443 July Aug. Sept. 1,425 1,690 2,745 265 39 395 24 0 6 139 70 80 285 177 216 1,953 2,165 1,852 155 163 148 -2,460 -2,689 -3,173 - 6,106 - 4,940 - 5,355 Oct. Nov Dec 2,565 2,804 3,441 484 793 973 44 90 105 226 148 276 227 239 307 1,476 1.393 1,298 126 84 41 -3,814 -4,469 -4,682 - 6,090 - 8,186 - 9,793 Jan. Feb. Mar 3,102 2,436 1,986 540 1,619 583 114 120 68 254 263 239 162 184 134 1,051 1,162 1,314 18 17 32 -4,753 -5,262 -5,030 -10,893 -10,769 -11,058 Apr. May June 1 435 408 *580 99 85 *9 39 142 66 78 83 124 182 178 192p 1,736 2,590 3,006p 40 102 135p -3,952 -3,171 -4,445 -11,603 - 9,091 - 9,920 May 1 8 15 22 29 810 616 305 94 333 -15 -17 384 8 19 7 37 40 117 136 153 129 96 131 211 177 213 176 129 179 2,157 1,617 1,977 3,090 3,606 74 82 94 112 114 -2,967 -3,423 -4,002 -2,858 -2,447 - 5 12 19 26 1,031 1,110 * 778 * -289 12 76 * 29 *-45 50 185 29 0 98 100 127 171 225 131 2 8 5 p 104p 3,054 2,729 3,223p 2,788p 131 136 142p 133p -3,521 -5,052 -4,803 -4,394 - 9,361 -10,333 - 9,946 - 9,347 126p 137p -3,850p -4,301p - 9,726p 974 -- 974 -- June July 3 10 17 24 NOTE: * * 75 26 *-76 *-145 50 95p 0 70p , 31___________ ______________ , ________. 298p 242p 3 4 4 , 3 p 6 2 2, 4 p _________.- . .-- .. -___________ 9,712 9,102 9,091 9,329 8,711 -10,089p b ----- h Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, wnicn excLude Treasury DILLS financed uy repurc ase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer posiThe basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal in syndicate, excluding trading positions. tions are debt issues still Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JULY 12, 1974 Table 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent *11'- 4eirA S-- Federal Funds Federa (1) Fu nd 10.84 5.61 1973 -- High Low __ Short-Term Treasury Bills 90-119 Day Commercial npaer 90-Day 1-Year I (4) 10.50 5.63 CD's New lssue-NYC 60-89 nav (5) 10.50 5.38 90-119 Day (6) 10.75 5.50 - oeTr Lone-Term Aaa Utilty Recently New Issue Offered (7) 8.52 7.29 U S. Government Municipal (10-yr Constant Bond Buyer Maturity) ~ "' (10) (9) 5.59 7.54 4.99 6.42 FNMA Auction Yields II (11) 9.37 7.69 1974 -- High Low 13.55 8.81 12.09 7.88 12.25 8.00 12.00 7.88 9.50 8.05 10.09 8.14 6.95 5.16 7.80 6.93 9.65 8.43 1973 -- June 8.49 8.00 7.98 8.13 7.64 7.64 5.18 6.90 8.07 July Aug Sept. 10.40 10.50 10.78 9.26 10.26 10.31 9.09 10.25 10.31 9.19 10.40 10.50 8.01 8.36 7.88 7.97 8.22 7.99 5.40 5.48 5.10 7.13 7.40 7.09 8.46 8.83 9.3? Oct. 10.01 10.03 9.95 9.14 9.11 9.28 9.15 9.06 9.44 8.08 8.91 9.13 7.90 7.90 8.00 7.94 7.94 8.04 5.05 5.18 5.12 6.79 6.73 6.74 9.01 8.84 8.78 9.65 8.97 9.35 8.86 8.00 8.64 9.05 8.09 8.69 8.83 7.97 8.56 8.21 8.12 8.46 8.27 8.23 8.42 5.22 5.20 5.41 6.99 6.96 7 21 8.71 8 48 8 53 10 51 11.31 11.93 9.92 10 82 11.18 9.81 10.83 11.06 9.78 10.90 10.88 8.98 9.24 9.38 8.94 9.13 9.36 5.73 6.02 6.13 7 51 7.58 7.54 9 07 9 41 9.54 11.17 11.29 11.46 10.95 11.54 10.65 10.98 11.00 10 90 10 41 10.75 11.00 10.88 10.88 10.63 10.75 11.00 11.00 11.00 10.75 9.27 9.27 9.23 9.34 9.09 9.15 9.11 9.13 9.10 9 08 5.91 6.00 6.04 6.05 6.08 7.63 7.66 7.55 7.54 7.51 June 5 12 19 26 11.45 11.60 11.85 11.97 10.70 10.85 11.23 11.45 10.63 10.75 11.13 11.75 10.50 10.50 11.00 11.50 9.23 9.28 9.49 9.50 9.14 9.18 9.48 9.65 6.01 6.04 6.13 6.33 7.51 7.49 7.53 7.62 9.54 July 3 10 17 24 31 13.55 13.34 11.95 12.09 11.75 12.25 11.75 12.00 9.79 6.64 6.95 7.68 7.80p 9.65 10.25p July 5 13.30 3 1 .43p 12.00 12 25 Nov Dec. 1974 -- Jan. Feb. Mar Apr May June 1974 -- May 1 8 15 22 29 Daily NOTrS - - 0 10. 9p 9.34 9.48 9.54 7.71 n.a. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8 and 10 the Weekly data for columns I to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. it hi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. June 12, 1974 APPENDIX TABLE I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES RESERVES MONEY STOCK BANK CREDIT MEASURES MEASURES 'Total Loans Adjusted and InvestCredit menta Proxy tvailable to support Non- Period Total horo.e (1) (2) ieposlts M 1 M 2 M 3 (3) (4) (5) (6) jrivate (7) (8) OTHER Total time Time other than CD (9) (10) Thrift Institution De/ poits CD's (12) (11) Nonponot. ps und (13) Anottally: 1970 1971 1972 1973 +6.0 +7.2 +10.6 +7.8 +9.3 +7.8 +7.7 +7.2 +8.7 +6.9 +10.1 +9.3 +6.0 +8.4 +8.3 +8.2 +6.3 +11.2 +13.3 +9.4 +8.7 +11.1 +13.0 +11.6 +8.8 +10.6 +6.1 +8.9 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +13.5 +17.9 +18.2 +15.7 +16.0 +11.1 +16.7 +13.5 +11.4 +8.0 +17.1 +16.6 +8.6 +14.4 +7.7 +10.4 +19.4 Seani-Alnua2 lst Half 1972 2nd Half 1972 +10.8 +9.9 +11.0 +4.1 +8.3 +11.5 +7.7 +10.7 +12.4 +11.2 +9.4 +10.9 +12.8 +11.3 +13.6 +14.7 +15.4 +14.8 +13,8 +12.3 +15.7 +16.3 +4.4 +6.0 -0.2 +0.6 +6.7 +8.6 +1.6 +12.7 +10.3 +7.8 +7.7 +4.4 +13.8 +7.0 +16.6 +9.6 +20.8 +10.2 +10.4 +11.8 +10.7 +6.1 +18.6 +0.8 +1.2 +1.8 +13.2 +7.0 +14,9 +13.9 +20,1 +10,6 +6.6 +20,6 +2.9 +10,9 +1.3 guarterly: 1st Qtr. 1972 2nd Otr. 1972 3rd Qtr. 1972 4th Qtr. 1972 +8.7 +12.6 +4.4 +15.1 +9.1 +12.6 -0.9 +9.2 +9.6 +6.9 +10.4 +12.2 +10.5 +11.6 +10.2 +12.1 +15.7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8 +14.5 +15.7 +14.3 +14.8 +15.5 +11.7 +12.7 +11.4 +15.9 +14.9 +17.8 +14.2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1973 1973 1973 1973 +6.4 +6.9 +10,6 +6.1 -3.6 +7.0 +11.3 +13.4 +7.8 +12.5 +16.2 +1.4 +14.6 +12.6 +10.5 +3.3 +19.9 +12.7 +12.7 +6.3 +22.7 +17.8 +14.0 +6.1 +9.9 +10.6 +10.6 +12.6 1st Qtr. 1974 2nd Qtr. 1974 +1.7 +20.3 +1.5 +1.0 +6.2 +20.2 +9.41 +8.5 +6.6 +20.8 +15.9 +11.5 +15.6 +23.6 +12.5 +8.5 NoAthly:L 1973--Jan. Teb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. +30.1 -21.1 +10.5 +14.7 +5.4 +0.5 +27.2 -5.1 +9.4 +12.1 -4.3 +10.5 +26.8 -38.5 +1.8 +20.1 +0.5 +0.2 +24.9 -13.5 +21.9 +26.7 -1.6 +14.4 +15.9 -2.9 +10.3 +10.0 +9.9 +17.3 +18.5 +10.1 +13.3 +1.0 -6.3 +9.4 +17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +14.5 +18.2 +5.2 +7.7 +7.4 +3.6 1974--Jan. Teb. Mar. Apr. May June p +35.7 -24.8 -5.4 +32.7 +20.8 +6.6 +45.9 -80.4 -10.0 +19.0 -8.2 -7.6 +6.9 -0.3 +11.9 +19.7 +21.7 +18.2 +14.7 +15.5 +16.8 +16.0 +10.2 +7.8 1/ +9.9 +7.6 S-8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0 +0.7 +3.7 +2.4 +3.6 -0.3 +0.1 +11.4 +9.7 +4.6 +7.6 +11.2 +7.4 +4.7 -3.9 +0.5 +0.7 +1.7 +0.1 +8.6 +4.6 +4.9 +15.7 +1.2 +1.7 +16.5 +22.3 +28.2 +22.5 +18.8 +11.2 +12.8 +18.9 +9.8 +3.7 +3.3 +11.3 +13.7 +11.6 +8.7 +9.0 +9.4 +10.4 +7.3 +2.3 +4.2 +6.8 +7.2 +8.6 +1.3 +4.4 +5.5 +3.8 +2.9 +0.7 +1.9 +2.4 +0.4 -2.9 -1.8 +0.8 +0.6 +21.8 +15.2 +9.3 +30.8 +22.6 +16.1 +8.6 +7.8 +9.2 +6.6 +2.5 +4.7 +2.7 +1.1 +1.1 +7.7 +5.8 +2.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.9 +1.0 +1.1 -0.4 derived by averaging Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels month reported data. Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Preliminary. ROTE: p - +7.1 +6.8 (14) (Dollar Change in Billions) (Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Go Demad end of 16, 1969, current month +0.3 +0.3 -0.5 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.2 -0.4 +0.2 +0.3 and end of previous and requirements on bank-related APPENDIX TABLE II RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) R___ESERVES Period Total Available to Support NonPvt. borrowed Depoaits MONEY STOCK MEASURES _ M 1 Pvt. Total Dep. 2 M3 "IEIRIT Total Adj. Loans & Credit InvestProxy ments Jul __ 12,1974 Tie Other Than CD'a OTHER Thrift Intitution Deposits CD's (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) Total Time NonU.S. Dep. Cov't Funds peman (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) AU1AL LY: Dec. 1970 Dec. 1971 Dec. 1972 29,193 31,299 31,410 28,861 31,173 30,360 27,099 28,965 29,053 221.2 235.2 255.7 172.2 182.6 198.7 425.2 473.0 525.5 642.7 727.9 822 8 332.9 364.3 406.4 438.5 487.6 559.0 229.2 270.9 313.3 203.9 237.9 269.9 217.5 254.8 297.2 25.3 33.0 43.4 11.6 4.0 4.4 6.5 6.1 6.1 MONTHLY: 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. 32,199 31,634 31,910 31,037 30,040 30,085 29,439 29,368 29,621 256.7 257.9 258.1 199.6 200.4 200.1 529.6 532.4 534.7 830.2 835.8 840.4 409.7 413.5 421.2 567.3 578.5 586.8 317.6 323.6 331.2 272.9 274.5 276.6 300.6 303.5 305.7 44.7 49.1 54.6 5.0 4.5 4.9 6.7 6.1 7.6 Apr. May June 32,300 32,445 32.459 30,589 30,602 30,608 29,867 30,114 30,548 259 4 262.4 265.5 200.8 203.4 206.2 538.4 543.7 549.5 846.4 854.1 862.6 426.6 430.5 434.5 593.2 601.4 605.5 337.4 342.7 345.9 278.9 281.4 283.9 308.0 310.4 313.1 58.4 61.3 62.0 5.1 5.4 5.6 7.1 5.2 5.3 July Aug. Sept. 33,576 33,906 34,173 31,622 31,741 32,321 31,358 32,038 32,394 266.4 266.3 265.5 206.9 206.4 205.3 552.1 555.1 556.8 867.1 870.7 873.5 437.6 443.8 445.9 612.8 622.1 624.8 349.6 355.1 358.0 285.7 288.8 291.4 315.0 315.6 316.7 63.9 66.3 66.7 6.5 7.1 7.3 3.9 4.8 5.0 Oct. Nov. Dec. 34,942 34,857 35,105 33,466 33,463 33,807 32,845 32,714 32,912 266.6 269.2 271.4 206.1 208.2 209.7 561.9 567.3 572.1 880.3 887.7 894.8 446.5 447.5 449.6 628.8 632.7 634.6 359.1 360.1 363.5 295.3 298.1 300.6 318.5 320.4 322.7 63.8 62.0 62.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 6.0 5.8 4.9 1974--Jan. Feb. Mar. 35,850 35,108 34,949 34,799 33,916 33,634 32,799 32,791 33,117 270.8 273.7 276.2 208.9 211.1 212.9 575.4 581.9 586.2 900.4 909.0 915.8 454.3 454.8 459.1 642.4 650.7 659.8 370.1 374.8 377.7 304.6 308.2 310.0 325.0 327.1 329.6 65.5 66.6 67.7 7.3 7.7 8.6 6.2 3.0 3.7 Apr. May June 35,902 36.523 36,721 34,166 33,933 33,717 33,660 34,270 34,790 278.1 279.2 280.9 214.1 214.8 216.0 590.2 592.8 597.4 921.5 924.9 930.9 471.2 477.8 483.0 668.6 674.3 678.7 387.4 394.7 400. 312.1 313.6 316.6 331.4 332.1 333.4 75.4 81.2 83.4 9.6 10.7 10.3 4.5 3.8 3.8 3 10 17 24 35,398 35,040 36,161 36,003 33,895 33,846 34,345 34,064 33,240 33,117 33,794 33,722 277.5 277.7 280.1 277.8 214.1 213.6 216.0 213.9 588.1 589.3 592.3 590.2 ----- 466.3 468.4 472.9 471.8 ----- 382.0 385.4 387.0 389.2 310.5 311.5 312.2 312.3 ----- 71.5 73.9 74.8 76.9 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 May 1 8 15 22 29 36.742 36,385 36,572 36,659 36,447 34,585 34,768 34,595 33,569 32,841 34,277 34,151 34,104 34,250 34,434 276.8 278.6 279.5 280.6 278.1 213.0 214.1 215.1 216.0 213.5 589.6 591.3 593.1 593.9 592.5 ------ 473.8 476.4 476.6 478.5 78.4 - 390.8 392.4 394.2 395.2 396.9 312.8 312.7 313.6 313.3 314.4 ------ 78.0 79.7 80.6 82.0 82.5 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.0 4.4 5.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 June 5 12 19P 26 P 36,514 36,122 36,980 36,844 33,460 33,393 33,757 34,056 34,754 34,467 34.974 34,780 281.2 280.9 281.5 280.4 216.7 216.0 216.7 215.6 July 3p 37,374 33,940 35,097 281.2 216.3 596.9 597.2 598.6 597.4 598.4 ------ 481.9 482.5 82.9 482.9 487.6 - 397.6 398.7 400.5 401.2 402.5 315.7 316.2 317.0 317.1 317.2 ----- 81.9 82.5 83.5 84.1 85.3 10.6 10.1 9.7 10.4 10.7 3.7 4.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 WEEKLY: 1974--April (6) (7) (8) (9) monthly average leels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous onth reported data. / tiated NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, beak-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statamaent weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nofbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M 3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. p - Preliminary. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) M1 1972 1973 M Q I 9.0 5.3 II 6.2 8.2 III 8.7 8.2 IV 9.9 8.4 I 3.8 7.0 7.0 8.8 II 11.5 7.5 11.1 8.8 -- 5.6 5.3 7.9 5.1 7.5 IV 8.9 4.5 11.0 8.9 9.8 7.9 I 7.1 9.9 9.9 9.4 9.4 II 6.8 7.6 8.5 6.6 7.7 III 1974 M M2 M Q 12.3 11.0 13.5 12.5 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.7 10.8 10.8 13.3 13.0 10.6 10.2 12.0 12.2 8.6 10.2 M 10.6 9.0 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. t = annual races calculated from dverage levels in all ch-ee months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives M1 M M2 Q M M3 Q M Q_ Alt. A 1974 III IV III & IV Combined 6.1 8.0 7.0 6.2 7.5 6.8 7.7 8.4 8.0 6.7 7.2 7.0 Alt. 1974 III IV III & IV Combined 5.0 6.2 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 6.3 6.5 6.4 B 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.4 6.7 Alt. C 1974 III IV III & IV Combined 4.1 3.9 4.0 5.0 4.0 4.5 5.2 4.7 5.0 6.5 4.6 5.5 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in last month of the quarters, Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table V Money Supply Growth Rates M1 1973 M 1 less Foreign Official Deposits and Deposits due to Foreign Commercial Banks January 4.7 5.2 5.3 February 5.6 5.6 6.7 March 0.9 0.5 0.9 April 6.0 6.5 6.6 May 13.9 13.0 11.8 June 14.2 14.7 14.4 2.8 4.1 3.6 August -0.5 -0.5 September -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 5.0 5.5 4.6 July October November 1974 M1 less Foreign Official Deposits 11.7 10.9 10.1 December 9.8 9.9 8.2 January -2.7 -2.7 -3.6 February 12.9 12.5 13.1 March 11.0 11.9 11.2 April 8.3 5.7 5.8 May 4.7 6.5 5.7 June 7.3 5.6 5.3 

Federal Reserve (1974, July 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740716

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740716,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740716},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}