Bluebook

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All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) January 18, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) January 18, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND ONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) New revised data for monetary aggregates, scheduled for publication on January 31, 1/show that M 1 increased at an annual rate of about 8-1/2 per cent in December, substantially more rapidly than anticipated at the time of the December FOMC meeting. But there has been little change in M1, on balance, since mid-December, and as shown in Table 1 below, for the December-January target period M1 growth now appears to be near the middle of the Committee's range of tolerance. Growth in M 2 appears to be close to the top of its range, as net inflows of consumer-type time deposits to banks have been well sustained. The sharp December rise in M1 appears partly attributable to a late month bulge in foreign commercial bank deposit balances with U.S. banks. Without the increase in deposits held by foreign banks, the M 1 growth rate in December would have been about 6-1/2 per cent. 1/ The new revised data for M1 indicate that its level for recent months is about $1 billion below the level of the preliminary revised series (and about $2 billion above the old published series). The new series incorporates nonmember bank figures based on the October call report; this is the first year since the early 1960's that useable deposit data from the spring and fall surprise calls have been available to us. Rates of growth for the currently published, preliminary revised, and new revised series are shown in appendix Table IV. -2Table 1 Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in December-January Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates Growth at SAAR in per cent) Range of Tolerance RPD's 8-1/4--11 9.1 M1 M1 3--6 4.91/ M2 5--8 7.8 7.8 1/ 1/ Avg. Memo: Fed funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ Latest Estimates 8-3/4--10 for Statement week ending 9.76 Jan. 9 Jan. 16 9.77 These figures are based on the new revised series. December-January rates of growth for the preliminary revised series would be little different. (2) RPD's have been expanding at about a 9 per cent annual rate in the December-January target period, well within the growth range desired by the Committee. As indicated in Table 2, however, there were minor deviations from projections made at the time of the December FOMC meeting in the use of RPD to support various types of deposits and excess reserves. -3Table 2 Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use December 1973-January 1974 (In millions of dollars) Projections as of December 18, 1973 FOMC meeting Change in Total RPD's RPD's 1/1/ Current Projection 167 137 Change in Category of Use: Private demand deposits 362 Time deposits other than large CD's CD's and nondeposit funds 55 -318 Excess 1/ 94 -263 68 - 31 Change from November 1973 to January 1974 level consistent with midpoint of Committee's range of tolerance for RPD growth on basis of new estimates of deposit data. (3) The Federal funds rate declined to around an average of 9-3/4 per cent soon after the last Committee meeting--and the level of member bank borrowings has dropped to an average of about $1 billion during the past four statement weeks--as the Desk took actions to ease conditions of reserve availability somewhat, in accordance with the Committee's policy instructions. Deposit data available in the early part of January, however, suggested that both M1 and M2, partly influenced by increases in banks, were expanding at rates somewhat in excess growth range established by the Committee, foreign deposits at U.S. of the upper limits of the while RPD was estimated to be increasing at a rate just below the upper limit of its range. In view of the sensitive state of financial markets and the general economic situation, -4a majority of Committee members concurred on January 11 in the Chairman's recommendation that the Desk should continue to maintain prevailing money market conditions, aiming at a Federal funds rate of 9-3/4 per cent. (4) Bond market yields have generally moved up about 10 to 30 basis points since the last Committee meeting, responding first to the potential and then to the actual weight of a heavy calendar of new corporate and municipal issues. have moved on divergent paths. Meanwhile, short-term interest rates Treasury bill rates have increased from 20 basis points (in the longer maturity area) to 50 basis points (in the shorter maturity areas). In the private market--with business short-term credit demands slackening in December--rates on commercial paper and short-term bank CD's have declined 1/8 to 1/4 of a point, and banks with prime rates of 10 per cent have dropped the rate to 9-3/4 per cent. (5) The advance in bill rates appears attributable mainly to the dispelling of expectations held by many market participants that monetary policy would ease significantly over the near-term future. The fact that the Federal funds rate failed to move down from the 9-3/4 per cent level achieved early in the inter-meeting period appears to have been mainly responsible for this reassessment of expectations. The process was reinforced, however, by the sharp rise in M1 reported for December. And bill rates also responded to ongoing and expected sales of Treasury issues by foreign central banks. Most of the net foreign sales in December and early January were absorbed by the System in the course of normal seasonal reserve supplying operations. But this in turn meant that seasonal demand for bills from the dealer market was commensurately reduced. -5(6) The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods on the new revised basis. Appendix Table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. This blue book does not contain the usual charts 1-3 on the monetary aggregates because of time pressure in converting to the new revised money supply series. 3 years ending Dec. 1972 Dec. '72 over Dec. '69 Past 12 Months Dec. '73 over Dec. '72 Past 6 Months Dec. '73 over June '73 Past 3 Months Dec. '73 over Sep, '73 Past Month Dec. '73 over Nov. '73 Total reserves 7.8 7.7 8.5 6.1 10.3 Nonborrowed reserves 8.3 7.2 12.6 13.3 14.1 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.5 9.3 7.8 1.4 9.4 7.5 5.9 3.9 8.0 8.5 M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 11.3 8.6 7.8 10.2 8.7 M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 12.8 8.6 6.5 9.1 9.6 Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.7 10.7 7.0 3.5 6.2 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 12.6 12.6 8.0 4.4 1.5 1.6 0.1 Concepts of Money Ml (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ Bank Credit Short-term market paper (Monthly avg. change in billions) Large CD's .9 Nonbank commercial paper 0.1 Other than interbank and U.S. 1/ 2/ Based on month-end figures. 0.3 Government. 0.8 -1.3 1.2 0.8 -0.4 Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments for growth rates in Three alternative sets of specifications (7) the aggregates and money market conditions are summarized below for Committee consideration. (More detailed figures are shown in the table on p. 7a). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Targets (1st & 2nd qtrs. combined) M1 6-3/4 6 M2 10 8-1/2 7 Credit Proxy 9-1/2 8-1/2 7 RPD 6--8 5-1/2--7-1/2 4-3/4--6-3/4 M1 4--6 3-1/2--5-1/2 3--55 5-1/4 Associated ranges for January-February 7-1/2--9-1/2 M2 Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) (8) 8-3/4--9-3/4 Alternative C encompasses 9-1/4--10-1/4 9-3/4--10-3/4 10-3/4 the 5-1/4 per cent growth rate for M1 between December and June adopted by the Committee at its meeting. 6--88 7--9 last (This and other alternative growth rates are shown in the chart on the following page in relation to the rate of increase for M1 over the past year). The money market specifications for alternative C indicate that continuation of the path for the aggregates adopted at the last meeting would likely be associated with some upward movement in the Federal funds rate from the prevailing level of around 9-3/4 per cent. This now seems probable because we expect somewhat greater demand for money in the first half of 1974 than we did at the time of the last MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 28Q GROWTH 5/%% - 270 REVISED M1 . . -** RATE OF GROWTH DEC. '72 TO DEC. '73 5.9% A I II, 1 M J A 1973 I S -1260 I. I 0 N D I F 1I -1 A M 1974 M -7aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates Ml Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A M3 Alt. B Alt. C 1973 Dec. 270.7 270.7 270.7 570.8 570.8 570.8 893.4 893.4 893.4 1974 Jan. Feb. Mar. 271.0 272.9 274.6 271.0 272.7 274.2 271.0 272.6 273.9 574.1 578.9 583.9 574.1 578.3 582.6 574.0 577.6 581.0 899.1 906.1 913.2 899.1 905.3 911.5 898.9 904.5 909.6 June 280.0 279.1 277.9 599.3 595.6 590.8 935.0 930.5 925.0 Quarters: 1974 Rates of Growth 1st Q. 2nd Q. Months: Jan. Feb. 1.3 1.3 8,4 7.5 Adjusted Credit Alt. A Alt. B 1973 1974 4.7 5.8 9.2 10.5 8.3 8.9 7.1 6.7 1.3 7.1 6.9 10.0 6.9 8.8 6.7 7.5 Proxy Alt. C Total Reserves Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 7.3 6.8 7.7 9.3 7.7 8.3 Alt. A RPD Alt. B 7.4 7.5 Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 449.8 454.0 455.6 457.6 449.8 454.0 455.2 456.6 449.8 454.0 454.6 455.6 35,097 35,883 35,473 34,998 35,097 35,888 35,437 34,924 35,097 35,882 35,401 34,855 32,912 32,847 32,992 33,085 32,912 32,851 32,956 33,012 32,912 June 471.4 468.8 465.8 35,977 35,797 35,598 33,968 33,793 33,600 6.0 Quarters: 1974 1st Q. 2nd Q. Months: Jan. Feb. 12.1 10.7 5.2 9.0 2.3 11.2 1.5 10.0 11.2 4.2 11.2 3.2 11.2 1.6 37.1 -13.7 37.3 -15.1 6.9 0.7 8.5 37.1 -16.1 5.8 10.7 8.6 5.3 32,845 32,920 32,943 4.0 8.0 8.9 3.8 8.6 2.7 -8FOMC meeting, reflecting the larger increase in prices and in nominal GNP now projected. (9) The specifications for alternative B include a 6 per cent annual rate for M1 over the first half of 1974. The staff believes change in the funds that such a growth rate would probably entail little rate from current levels. Thus, the range for the funds rate in that alternative centers on 9-3/4 per cent. Alternative A includes moderately higher growth rates for the monetary aggregates and a consequent easing in money market conditions. (10) No matter which of these alternatives might be chosen, the rates of growth for M1 are expected to be higher in the second quarter than in the first quarter of 1974, and to be quite moderate for the two month January-February period. For example, under alternative B, annual rate of M1 growth over the first quarter is the indicated to be around 5-1/4 per cent--and in a 3-1/2 to 5-1/2 per cent range for January-February-but to rise to 7 per cent in the second quarter. The greater growth in the second quarter reflects the temporary impact of large tax refunds-estimated at $2-$3 billion above last year--and initial consumer adjustments to higher social security benefit payments. We would expect M1 growth in the third quarter, assuming little change in interest rates from those prevailing, to be on the order of one percentage point lower than in the second quarter as these temporary factors disappear. (11) The outlook for interest rates in general is uncertain partly because market attitudes are so sensitive to the course of military and oil developments in the Middle East and their implications for domestic inflation, international capital flows, Government securities. Also, and foreign official sales of U.S. of course, market participants are quite -9sensitive at this time to monetary policy. In long-term markets, the recent enlarged flow of bond offerings has moved relatively well, but a continued heavy calendar is likely to lead to a further updrift in longterm yields--assuming no significant change in the Federal funds rate, and no dramatic change in the outlook for oil prices and supplies. In the short-term sector, rates could also back up somewhat further, given the prevailing Federal funds rate, as dealer financing costs remain high and market participants come to believe that further monetary ease is not in prospect. However, Federal Government financing requirements appear light enough over the next few weeks to moderate upward rate pressures. Housing agencies will be repaying debt, and the Treasury has little or no net cash need between now and late March or early April (assuming no sizable further liquidation of Treasury specials by foreign central banks). (12) Given the sensitivity of markets, a rise in the funds rate from current levels would probably lead to an increase of interest rates generally--adjustments that could be fairly large if the funds rate increase were sizable, say on the order of 1/4--1/2 percentage points, and gave signs of persisting. A drop in the funds rate from prevailing levels, on the other hand, would be accompanied by declines in market interest rates, particularly short-term rates. ensuing market rally is unclear. The likely strength of any Since the market over-anticipated the extent and speed of the easing in policy late last year, reactions to further declines in the funds rate might be on the cautious side. -10(13) The Treasury will be announcing mid-February refunding terms on January 30. held. About $4-1/2 billion of maturing debt is publicly Under current market circumstances, it does not appear likely that the Treasury would seek to pre-refund additional issues or to offer longer-term securities in volume. Thus, the refunding may be a relatively uncomplicated operation, although somewhat larger in size than the mid-November refunding. (14) Net inflows of consumer-type time and savings deposits are expected to continue at about the November-December pace at banks and thrift institutions under alternative B, which does not contemplate significant changes in market rates. likely to evolve under alternative A. Somewhat greater growth would be There is risk of an appreciable reduction in savings flows under alternative C if the money market does in fact tighten as much as shown in paragraph (7). (15) The various alternatives include more rapid expansion in bank credit in the winter and spring of 1974 than occurred in the fourth quarter of last year, when growth was quite slow. Since mid- December, banks have once again begun to increase offerings of CD's. We have assumed a modest continuing expansion in CD's, in contrast to the sharp decline that occurred over the fourth quarter--a decline that was equivalent to a reduction in bank credit growth by about 4 percentage points (at an annual rate). However, demands for bank credit may be relatively modest in the first quarter, given recent emphasis on capital market financing by businesses, slower consumer credit growth, and less mortgage credit demand. Thus, banks may be reluctant to issue CD's in -11any significant volume at current relatively high interest rates. We have not assumed availability of relatively low cost funds to banks through oil revenues in the Euro-dollar market; the means and channels by which oil revenues will be recycled through world money and capital markets are still unclear. If banks were to obtain more funds in the Euro-dollar market, however, they would mainly substitute for domestic CD sales rather than add to the over-all bank credit expansion that would otherwise occur. -12- Proposed directive language Presented below are three alternative formulations (16) for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. For all three alternatives, it is proposed to add a reference to Treasury financing because of the regular February refinancing to be announced later this month. As will be noted, the three alternatives refer to growth rates in the aggregates "over the past 12 months." For the 12 months through December 1973, these are as follows in terms of the revised series: M1, 5.9 per cent; M2, 8.6 per cent; and the bank credit proxy, 10.7 per cent. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF internationl and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve in] easing some [DEL: bank reserve and money market conditions provided [DEL: that the] CONSISTENT WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER GROWTH IN monetary aggregates [DEL: excessively] growing be to appear not do AHEAD THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS. OVER THE MONTHS -13Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve provided bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: in] easing some [DEL: not do CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH IN monetary aggregates [DEL: the] that OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD AT ABOUT excessively] growing be to appear THE RATES THAT PREVAILED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve provided bank reserve and money market condition [DEL: in] easing some [DEL: CONSISTENT WITH SOMEWHAT SLOWER GROWTH IN monetary aggregates the] that OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD excessively] growing be to appear not do [DEL: THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS. (17) In the event that the Committee again wishes to couch the operational paragraph of the directive in terms of money market conditions, the specifications of alternative A might be associated with the language adopted at the December meeting (". . .the Committee seeks to achieve some easing in bank reserve and money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates do not appear to be growing excessively." The specifications of alternative B might be associated with language indicating that ". . . the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions, provided that the monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified ranges of tolerance." CHART 1 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES IONEY MARKET CONDITIONS WEEKLY AVERAGES S/ PER CENT 411 FEDFRAL FUNDS RATE I 1972 1973 TARLE 1 NeV RtVISED SERIES STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL --------------------, RANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) ------------- **---_*--- --------------------------------------- RESERVFS AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE NON@ANK DEPOSIT% II AGREGATF RESFRVFS II ------------------------------------------II ...--------------------- -*----------------------------11 II I SEAS AOJ I NON SEAS AOJ I PFRIOD TOTAL RESFRVES ------------------------- (1) I (2) 32.394 32.845 32.714 32.91P I I 32179 32.739 32.752 33,166 I I I I (32.851) 1 I ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE I --------------------- I OUARTERLY I I 1973--1T QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RDO TR. 4TH QTR 7.8 17.5 14.2 1.4 I I I 1 I 1974--1ST OTR. ( 4.9) I I MONTHLY 1973--SPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. I I I I 11.3 1.0 -6.3 9.4 1974--JAN. I I I II II I II I I It ( 0.1) I -- it II II II II II (33.919) 1f II (I II I it I If I II II II II II II II I I I WEEKLY 1 S A.8) DEC.-JAN. LFVELS-SMILLIONS NO NRnRROWED RESERVES I (3) -------------- m m lg ------- (6) (7) (8) 19.930 19«998 19.97f20,227 B.199 8,310 8,430 8*460 4,038 4,312 4,069 3,918 1.779 2.098 2,142 2,185 (20.313) S8.524) ( 3,806) ( 3,037) 1 (4) 1974 REQUIRED RESERVES ******************-******-----SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----------------------------------- m ------ *---I CD'S AND GOV*T AND OTHER PRIVATE NON DEP INTER8ANK TIME DEP DEMANn I am MONTHLY LEVELS-IMILIIONSI ------------------------ I I 1973--SEPT OCT. NOV. DEC. I 1974--JAN. JANUARY 18. (5) 1 34.173 34.942 34,857 35,097 32.321 33,4A6 33.463 33,799 I (35.848) (34,879) I 6.4 6.9 10.6 6.1 ( I I -3.6 7.0 11.3 13.3 1 S 3.9) 1.5) 9.4 12.1 -4.3 10.3 ( 21.9 26.7 -1.6 14.1 Irl . I I I 37.3) ( 49.0) ( ?3.9) ( 31. ) 7.4 9.7 15.7 12.7 O.6 3.P 1.4 5.8 -1.9) ( 2A.4 16.2 17.3 4.3 -6.8 3.4 -1.1 15.1 ( ( 9.1) 5.1) S 10.1) 8.5) ( 6.7) ---- **--------- I 1973--NOV. 7 14 21 28 I 32.657 32.694 32.904 32.508 32.647 32.745 32.977 32,552 I I DEC. 5 12 19 26 I 1 I 33,041 32.561 32,869 33.209 33.053 32.534 33,127 33,637 I 1 1974--JAN. 2 9 16 I I I 32.918 32,657 33,088 I I 33.560 33.392 34.77 1 -,r-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 1I 11 II II I II II II (I II II II II 1I 34,b55 34.866 35,192 34,641 33,485 33,345 33,620 33,354 35,108 34,623 35,191 35 330 33,633 33,321 33.702 34,922 35,291 35,646 36*468 34.081 34.870 35,479 8.386 8,432 8,441 89462 4.188 1.998 49158 2.172 I 19,817 q1,941 20,064 20,011 3.948 2,132 I 20,221 2C ,171 20,151 20,264 8,422 8,450 8,472 8,441 3,952 3*966 3*930 4,028 2*068 2.062 2.322 2*121 20,361 20,42 20,41? 8,523 8,506 8,528 3.649 3*731 3,821 2.373 2,990 3,380 1 I I 29288 NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF DECEMBER 18, 1973 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 8.25 TO 11 PERCENT FOR THE DEC-JAN PERIOD. kw- STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL *......... ..------.- TABLE 2 NEWLY REVISED ------------- JANUARY 18, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) m .mmmw.memm.......m mmwm--- m mmeme-m---------------- mmmmmemmm memm------mmem---mm TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS U.S. I I ADJUSTED 1I I MONEY SUPPLY I OTHER I II GOVT. I BROAD I CREDIT I NAOW I CO S I TOTAL I THAN CD S I PROXY II DEPOSITS I (Ml) I (M2) PERIOD mmmme ee wmeeemmemmemee emeemmemmm emmmemememmmmmmeememmmee ---------------------------------------------------------------------------e emme meeeeeeeeeemmeeeeeeee (7) (6) (5) (A4 I (3) II (2) 9 I (1) II I I I MONTHLY LEVELS-SRILLIONSI I I I ---- --II I I-----I I I I 291.2 I 66.7 556.6 1 445.9 11 5.0 357,9 1973--SEPT. I 265.4 I I 295.1 63.8 11 6.0 358.9 561.6 446.5 I 266. I OCT. NOV. I 268. I 566.7 447.5 11 5.0 I 359.9 1 297.8 6200 DEC. 270.7 I 570.8 449.8 II 5.0 363.0 300.2 I 62.8 I 1974--JAN. I I (271.n) I (574.1) 1I (454.0) II PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH -------------------QUARTERLY OTR. QTR9. OTR. QTR. I I I I I I 6.9 11.1 5.2 1 I 110.2 1 I 5.?) 1974--JAN. I I I I I ( 1.3) I ( 8.3) ( 4.0 I I I I I I 5 12 19 26 I I (303.1) 268.1 269.1 269.4 269.0 I 269.1 270.7 270.9 270.9 I (8) I I I (64.9) I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 7.3 6.9 7.1 7.4 1 I I II I II I I II II I II I ( 6.0) I I iI I II I 22.7 17. 14.0 5.7 1 I 7.2) 9.9 10.4 10.4 12.4 I (14.3) (10.9) I 5.7 1.6 2.7 6.2 II 11 II I I (11.2) 11 If I I 1 I II I I I II I If I (I 11 11 I I I 1 3.7 10.8 10.9 8 .7 ( 6.9) I I WEEKLY LEVELS-SRILLIONS I ---------------------I I NOV. 7 14 1 21 28 DEC. 1 I -3.6 5.0 10.4 8.5 DEC.-JAN. 14.6 12.6 10.5 3.5 I I MONTHLY -----1973--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. (368.0) emmm II I 3.0 11. -0.2 8.0 I 1974--1ST OTR. I I I I I I ( 6.2) I I 1973--1ST 2ND 3RO 4TH 11 em-- em-- I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF FUNDS I I 8.7) 7.8) 565.7 567.2 5 66.8 567.2 568.2 569.7 571.8 571.6 I I I I 1 I I I 447.7 647.1 447T6 447.6 4476 447.9 449.3 452.4 I 1 I f I 9.8 3.4 3.3 10.3 I I (16.5) I I I 4.8 4.1 4 .5 5.9 99 I 1 I 1 I 360.1 360.0 359.3 3601 360. 361.9 363.1 363.7 I (11.61 (10.7) (13.51 6.5 5.8 5.7 4.9 10.4 16.1 11.0 97 I 1 297.6 298.1 297.4 298.2 299.1 296.9 300.9 300.7 1 I I 62.5 61.9 61.9 61.9 I61.7 1 I 1 63.0 62.2 63.0 6.7 6.7 7.4 7.6 I 1 I 1 2 ?.6 7*6 7.3 I I 5.9 I 366.0 1 301.7 I 64.3 T70 7.1 1 366.8 1 30260 1 64.8 I 1 6.8 302.9 64*8 1 7*3 11 6.6 367.6 1 I I If I I I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------P - PRELIMINARY NOTEl DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJecTIONS. PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATES 1974--JAN. 2 1 9 P 1 16 PE I 270.1 269.3 270.2 -......---..---...-.-............---.-.....--- 1 1 I 571.8 571.3 573.0 452.0 453.1 453.6 .-..--....-- ......--.-..---.-----.-------- . a - STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 2-A CURRENTLY PUBLISHED DATA --------------------.--- JANUARY 18, 1974 MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --------,, -------U.S. I ADJUSTED II MONEY SUPPLY 1 GOVT. CREDIT II I BROAD I I NARROW (M?) I PROXY II DEPOSITS I (MI) I PERIOD ------------------------------------------------------(2) (1) I (3) II (A) I I II MONTHLY LEVELS-SBILLIONSI II ----------------------- I I II 445.9 II 552.3 5.1 1973--SEPT. I 263.4 446.5 6.6 557.1 II 264.4 OCT. 446.6 562.4 1 5.9 I 266.4 NOV. 566.8 449.8 5.5 II DEC. I 268.7 II PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH I II -----------------I I II QUARTERLY I I II --------I I 5.7 15.0 I 1.7 1973--1ST QT. 12.2 II 9.5 10.3 2ND QTR. 10.5 II I 3RD QTR. 0.3 5.1 3.5 4TH OTR. 8.0 I 10.5 I II MONTHLY II II 3.9 5.4 -2.1 II 1973--SEPT. 10.4 1.6 II 4.h OCT. 11.4 0.3 I NOV. 10.0 8.6 11 9.4 I I 9. DEC. I I II WEEKLY LEVFLS-SBILLIONS I II ----------------------- I I II II 561.5 446.8 II NOV. 7 266.4 6.4 446.4 II 562.9 6.5 14 267.0 562.8 446.6 11 5.S 267.5 21 446.5 II 561.5 5.5 I 65.4 I 2 II I I 5.7 446.8 563.3 II DEC. 5 1 266.6 564.3 4.8 447.0 1 267.9 12 567.4 448.2 II 4.4 19 I 268.8 6.1 451.7 567.8 II 269.2 26 II I I 453.9 7.5 569.0 11 269.4 2 1974--JAN. 453.8 7.8 567.7 I II 267.6 1 9 P I I II I -------------------- NOTEI DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I I OTHER I I THAN CD S I CO S I TOTAL .... (5) (6) <7) I I 355.6 356.1 356.8 360.6 23.) 16.0 13.4 5.6 I - - I I 9.5 9.8 12.7 2.4 12.8 356.8 356.7 356.1 357.2 295.1 295.9 295.3 296.1 61.7 60.8 61.1 I 357.8 359.2 360.7 361.5 296.7 296.4 298.7 298.6 61.1 I 363.5 364.4 299.5 300.1 PROJECTIONS. -=- 60. I 62.8 62.0 62.9 64.0 64.3 1 - - I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS 9.6 16.2 12.3 9.3 6.8 1.7 I 66.8 63.4 61.1 62.5 288.9 292.8 295.8 298.1 - I - PRELIMINARY P PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 18, 1974 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATTONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills _ & Accept. (1) Open Market Operations/ RP's Agency Coupon Net 3/ Issues Issues (4) (3) (2) _1 Total (5) Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Other 4/ A Member Open Market Factors Bank Borrowing Operations (8) (7) (6) Target in reserve categories available res. 5/ available req. res. against reserves 5 (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) U.S.G. and interb. (11) (10) (9) lfonthly 1973 -- .une July Aug. Sept Oct Nov Der 1974 -- 649 1,073 -753 -494 1,972 -1,008 1.867 228 27 ---533 226 209 168 -20 -30 172 71 178 -1,148 -143 531 295 -902 -831 1.085 2,416 -915 7 2,440 -1,307 1,386 -1,450 2,090 -818 -583 1,986 394 1,339 1 263 93 -282 -395 -68 -101 1,084 -850 978 1,150 -678 -646 -846 -470 311 -304 -133 373 -167 -68 105 1,185 557 418 540 -153 460 895 Jan. Feb. Weekly 1973 -- Nov. Dec 1974 -- Jan. 175 795 680 475 1,005 860 475 7 14 -418 -303 21 28 3 13 -- -2,811 2,571 -3,229 2,268 -326 -848 -285 351 288 738 -78 122 -245 119 50 20 907 -1,522 1,458 -1,454 2,562 -827 51 -284 -2,389 449 12 -220 212 -442 -- 499 34 5 -304 - - 593 288 710 188 -424 62 412 12 19 26 -33 1,002 420 73 50 -84 73 -- -1,393 2,752 -5,874 -1,510 3,900 -5,404 -824 868 6 13p -172 186 -447 538 -370 152 -31 106 -238 -427 -578 556 2 9 659 205 205 - 121 -2 5,124 -3,819 6,110 -3,616 716p -36p 168 -434 -885 1,025 293 669 -294o -114p 16 -201 -- -- 2,187 1,986 213 1,394 307 1,145p -155p 23 30 T- Represents change in System s portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. 2/ Represents change In daily average level from preceding period. T/ Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. 4/ Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. 5/ Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for December and January reflects the target adopted at the December 18, 1973 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 18, 1974 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars U 8 Govt. Security Dealer Positions Per Iorl Bills Coupon Issues B ill. Corporate Bonds Positions Member Bank Reserves Dealer Positions Municipal Bonds Excess** Reserves Borrowing at FRB** _ Total Seasonal Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York 38 5thera (1) (2) 1977 -- High 4,291 1,916 1,585 -93 1.223 12 -5,635 -1,638 -5,770 -1,910 1913 -- Low 3,796 897 1,299 -301 2,561 688 -5,243 -1,831 -10,661 -4,048 1972 -- Dec. 3,510 953 291 1,049 -4,977 -4,958 1073 -- Tan. r1h. 3, 407 2,132 7,400 720 562 -50 177 123 125 289 207 177 1,161 1,594 1,825 -4,550 -4,187 -4,273 -5,469 -5,436 -5,847 Apr. 2,457 1,894 7,281 106 421 562 60 151 120 255 161 234 1,688 1,843 1,851 -3,793 -3,019 -3,507 -6,577 -5,872 -6,443 ) .25 1,690 7,745 265 39 395 139 70 80 285 177 216 1,953 2,165 1,801 155 163 148 -2,460 -2.689 -3.173 -6,106 -4,940 -5,355 2,565 2,804 *31,41 484 793 *973 276 148 276 227 239 299p 1,476 1,393 1,299p 126 84 41 p -3,814 -4,469 -4,682 -6,090 -8,186 -9,793 lligh MaV .Tuno JuTly Aug. 0 pIt . Oct. Nov. 1) r . 1073 -- 1974 -- (7) (8) 3 30 75 (9) Nov. 7 14 21 28 2,973 7,975 2,727 2,357 1,299 859 470 644 154 167 104 168 265 163 384 85 1,170 1,521 1,572 1,287 93 80 85 84 -5,168 -5,056 -4,157 -3.756 -6,867 -8,572 -8,757 -8,199 Dec. 5 12 19 76 3,090 3.737 3,796 *3,312 746 910 1,144 *1,090 275 225 327 277 446 -28 31 6 p 476p 1,475 1,303 1,489 p 1,038p 57 45 -3.6 ~" -5,017 -4,757 -8,594 -10,651 -10,661 -9,281 2 9 16 23 30 *2,890 *3,079 *3,117 *858 *611 *533 238 213 2 1 5p 386 1,210p 31 -4,418 -5,220p - 6 ,079p -10, 79 7 p -11,314p .Tan. p -2p 321p 776 p 989p 40 -4,881 p 3 p p 19 20p p - 9,541 Y1..- overnment Security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, wh-ch exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt Issues is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds The basic reserve deficit still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. Weekly data are daily averages for statem(nt weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. pIreChales. * ** STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Beginning with Tanuary 1973, monthly sverprirs for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 18, 1974 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent Treasury Bills Federal Funds (M) 90-Day (2) 1-Year (3) 1972 -- High T.Lw 5.38 3.18 5 13 3.03 5.52 3.60 193) -- High .Low 10.84 5.61 8.95 5.15 1917 -- Dec. 5.33 1q73 -- Jan. reh. Mar Apr. May Timn8.49 New 60-89 Day Paper . 90-119 Day Issue (7) U.S. Government Utility (10-yr Constant Recently Municipal Offered (8) Bond Buyer (9) Maturi ty) (10) FNMA Auction yields ( (.) (6) 5.50 3.75 5.38 3.13 5.50 3 50 7.60 6.99 7 46 7.12 5.54 4.96 6.58 5.87 7.72 7.54 8.43 5.42 10.50 5.63 10.50 5.38 10.75 5 50 8.52 7.29 8.30 7.26 5.59 4.99 7.54 6.42 9.37 7.69 5.07 5.28 5.40 5 19 5.38 7.15 7.18 5.05 6.36 7 68 5.94 6.58 7.09 5.41 5.60 6.09 5.58 5.93 6.53 5.76 6.17 6.76 5.63 6.16 6.78 5.75 6.28 6.75 7.38 7.40 7.49 7.35 7 41 7.51 5.05 5.13 5.29 6 46 6.64 6.71 7.69 7.72 7.78 7.12 7.84 6.26 6.36 7.19 6.51 6.63 7.05 7.13 7.26 8.00 7.04 7.44 7.98 6.75 7.41 8.13 7.48 7.51 7.64 7.48 7.50 7.64 5.15 5.15 5.18 6.67 6.85 6 90 7.89 7.98 8.07 (4) July 10.40 8.01 7.97 9.26 9.09 9.19 8.01 7.97 5.40 7.13 8 46 Aug. 10.50 8.67 8.32 10.26 10.25 10.40 8.36 8.22 5.48 7.40 8 83 Sept. 10.78 8.29 8.07 10.31 10.31 10.50 7.88 7.99 5.10 7 09 9.32 (Ot Nov. De-e 10.01 10.03 .95 7.22 7.83 7.45 7.17 7.40 7.01 9 14 9.11 9.28 9.15 9.06 9.44 9.08 8,91 9.13 7.90 7.89 8.03 7.94 7.94 8.03 5.05 5.18 5.12 6.79 6.73 6 74 9.01 8.84 8.78 9.71 10.03 10.23 1 10.09 7.84 8,34 7.64 7.67 7.30 7.54 7.47 7.32 8.78 9.03 9.28 9.25 8.75 9.00 9.25 9.25 8.50 8.88 9.13 9.13 8.00 7.98 7.86 7.85 8.02 7.99 7,85 7.87 5.19 5.27 5.13 5.15 6.76 6.76 6.71 6.70 113 -- Nov 7 14 21 2 Dec. 1474 -- Aa CD's New Issue-NYC Commercial Period Long-Term _ Short-Term 90-119 Day Jan. 5 12 19 26 10.17 10.04 10.18 9.52 7.36 7.55 7.44 7.40 7.31 7.27 6.77 6.79 9.33 9.48 9.18 9.16 9.50 9.50 9.38 9.38 9.25 9.13 9.13 9.00 8.06 7.97 7.98 -- 7.98 7.97 8.05 8.10 5.15 5.06 5.11 5.16 6.72 6.69 6.71 6 87 2 9.87 7.48 6.88 9.16 9.38 9.00 -- 8.14 5.18 6 94 9 t6 23 30 9.76 9.77 7.57 7.89 7.01 7.09 8.98 8.88 9.13 9.13 8.88 8.88 8.17r 8.27p 8.25 8.2 5p 5.22 5.24 6.98 6 9 . 9p 8.87 8.81 8.78 8.71 Noter : Weklty data for columns I to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For Columns 7, 8 and 10 Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week ove: which data are averaged. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the hire statement week average yield in the bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Governent underwritten mortgages. CONFIDENTIAL CURRENTLY PUBLISHED DATA RESERVE ony Stock Reserves period Total A. I I Nnborrowe posit M M 1 2 Appendix Table I AND MONETARY VARIABLES k crl arrea | Available to Support Pvt. January 18, M 3 Adjusted Credit Proxy ther M. Total ' Loans and I (FR) 1974 I local stment.. Time Other than Thrift Institution C I Depot * U.S. Gov't Noudepoait ' 1 Cp \"/ ) Funds n- D ( \* (Dolla; Change in Billions) (Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) Annually 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Semi-Annually: lst Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 1st Half 1972 2nd Half 1972 +7.5 -1.1 +6.1 +7.2 +10.6 +7.6 +5.3 -2,8 +9.6 +8.1 +7.1 +6.4 +8.1 -1.7 +8.6 +7.2 +9.7 +9.0 +9.3 +2.6 +8.4 +11.4 +10.8 +7.9 +8.3 +2.9 +8.0 +13.5 +13.0 +8.2 +9.5 +0.4 +8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +10.7 +10.9 +2.9 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +12.6 +11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5 +15.3 +11.2 +1.4 +11.1 +16.7 +13.3 +10.6 +6.3 +3.6 +7.1 +17.4 +17.0 +&.7 +9.7 +4.4 +11.7 +9.0 +9.6 +6.3 +12.1 +2.0 +10.7 +3.4 +8.6 +10.4 +14.9 +7.4 +10.8 +10.3 +16.4 +9.8 +13.0 +12.1 +10.1 +8.4 +11.4 +11.1 +12.1 +9.7 +13.6 +14.7 +21.6 +13.4 +15.4 +14.5 +20.0 +12.1 +13.7 +12.1 +19.3 +14.3 +17.3 +15.4 +13.8 +7.0 +16.6 +8.0 +20.0 +9.6 +9.2 +11.4 +11.6 +5.3 +8.5 +10.6 +9.8 +16.6 +8.0 +15.9 +2.9 -12.4 +14.4 +7.7 +10.1 +19 3 +4.3 +3.4 +4.4 +5.7 +2.6 +13.0 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +3.0 -0.6 +0.5 +1.1 -0.3 +0.4 -1.1 -7.1 -0.4 -0.3 +0.6 -1.4 +1.1 +18.9 +0.5 +1.2 +1.7 -1.4 +0.3 +14.5 +13.5 +1.7 +1.8 -0.4 +1.1 +0.8 +3.7 +2.4 +3.3 -0.3 -+0.4 +0.3 -0.4 +0.5 -1.1 +1.4 +0.4 let Half 2nd Half Quarter. : 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1973 1973 +7.4 +7.7 +4.9 +7.8 +11.4 +6.2 +7.7 +7.9 +9.1 +7.0 1971 1971 +6.5 +2.3 +6.6 +6.0 +3.2 +3.6 +6.0 +8.7 +8.9 +10.5 Qtr. Itr. Qtr. Qtr. 1972 1972 1972 1972 +10.4 +12.6 +3.6 +14.2 +10.7 +13.1 -0.8 +4.8 +10.4 +6.6 +9,9 +10.6 +12.7 +8.5 +10.3 +10.2 +14.9 +10.7 +12.4 +11.5 +11.0 +11.5 +9.8 +12.1 +15.7 +11.1 +11J, +15.8 +15.4 +14.8 +14.0 +14.4 +16.1 +10.8 +12,3 +11.6 +19.1 +14.7 +16.2 +13.9 +8.8 +5.8 +10.3 +4.7 +21.8 -5.2 +14.5 +22.1 +8.8 +6.4 +5.2 +7.6 -1.9 +18.2 +11.4 +12.5 -7.1 +17.3 +12.4 +3.0 +26.7 -5.7 +11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2.9 +0.7 -6.1 +15.5 +9.8 -10.9 +10.5 +12.0 +13.6 -1.2 +11.0 +6.5 +13.4 +6.8 +3.9 +9.0 +6.9 +9.7 +12.9 +3.2 +20.8 +7.7 +5.7 +9.5 +5.1 +10.5 +10.4 +15.1 +12.4 +7.9 +8.3 +9.2 +12.5 +9.3 +8.7 +10.1 +7.9 +12.2 +8.6 +9.4 +4.4 +9.4 +13.2 +16.8 +14.2 +10.7 +10.1 +11.1 +13.9 +11.6 +11.2 +12.0 +9.8 +12.4 +15.0 +12.2 +10.5 +3.5 +9.2 +7.2 +16.2 +12.2 +15.6 +6.6 +10.0 +9.6 +9.5 +11.9 +10.5 +13.4 +19.9 +12.7 +11.4 +4.4 +15.3 +13.9 +17,3 +11.4 +15.2 +6.5 +9.9 +14.4 +14 2 +11.2 +21. +14.3 +23.1 +16.0 +13.4 +5.6 +17.7 +16.2 +11.6 +12.8 +18.2 +12.9 +13.6 +15.9 +12.0 +11.5 +14.2 +17.1 +9.5 +8.7 +9.8 +12.7 +19.2 +15.4 +13.2 +7.8 +13.0 +11.4 +12.3 +14.0 +10.2 +12.8 +10.4 +11.2 +13.6 +9.4 +3.1 +7.6 +18.9 +20.0 +17.4 +15 8 +13.4 +14.5 +17.0 +15.5 +15.7 +15.5 +13.2 +12.7 +11.7 +7.1 +4.7 -4.3 +0.1 +0.6 +0.1 +1.5 +1.5 +0.7 +0.8 +0.8 +0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9 +0.5 +0.7 +1.6 +0.1 -0.1 -0.3 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2 -+0.1 +0.3 -0.1 +0.2 -+0.1 +9.9 -2.4 +35.8 -22,1 +13.3 +12.3 +4.4 +0.6 +26.9 -5.1 +8.7 +14.1 -72 +7.3 +31.3 -41.3 -10.5 +26.1 +1.1 +24.0 444.9 -30.3 +22.8 +19.3 - 2.0 - 8.2 +22.8 -4.7 +13.4 +9.6 +9.4 +16.6 +18.6 +8.4 +13.1 +0.9 -8 5 +4.1 +6.4 +5.9 +4.7 +8.1 +9.8 +10.4 +5.1 +6.4 +3.9 +10.4 +11.4 +9.4 +9.8 +9.0 +6.9 +8.4 +9.1 +10.4 +5.6 +4.2 +3.2 +9.1 + 9.9 + 9.1 +8.3 +16.4 +19.7 +13.1 +12.1 +11.1 +8,8 +17.0 +5.4 +1.6 +0.3 +8.6 +17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +13.3 +16.7 +4.1 +6.7 +5.0 +1.5 +15.7 +21.6 +30.9 +21.0 +18.2 +8.1 +12.6 +20.4 +6.8 +1.7 +2.4 +12.8 +12.9 +5.7 +9.6 +8.7 +9.1 +8.1 +5.5 +14.0 +9.6 +16.2 +12 3 +9.3 +15.8 +14.4 +10.2 +9.4 +7.8 +10.8 +6.5 +1.2 +4.5 +6.1 +3.8 +3.1 +0.3 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2 -3.4 -2.3 +1.4 +0.1 -+0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.1 -0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.6 +0.1 +0.3 -1.7 -1.2 +0.5 -1.7 +0,8 +0.9 +1.5 -0.7 -0.5 let 2nd 3rd 4th lot 2nd 3rd 4th 1972: 1973: Qtr. 1973 Qtr. 1973 Qtr. 1973 Qtr. 1973 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June July Aug. Sept, Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb, Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.p I ------- +6.7 +9.8 ~---I +2.7 +6 4 +7.2 +9.0 +0.3 +0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +0.7 -1.3 -1.0 -0.7 +0.6 +1.2 +0.6 -0.4 -- p - Preliminary NOTE: Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1/ Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes. 2/ Series revised to incorporate new seasonal factors and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustments 1970 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) January 18, 1974 Appendix Table II RESERVES AND MONETARYVARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) Available to Support Pvt. Deposits Total Nonborrowed 1969 1970 1971 27,959 29,121 31,209 26,699 28,727 31,060 25,339 26,975 28,907 208.8 221.3 236.0 162.7 172.2 183.4 197 -- July Aug. Sept. 33,171 33,381 33,327 33,018 33,038 32,870 30,317 30,562 30,890 247.7 248.6 250.1 Oct. Nov. Dec. 33,832 31,883 31,309 33,295 31,297 30,063 30,973 29,496 28,862 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. 32,242 31,649 31.999 30,848 29,787 29,526 Apr. May June 32,326 32,445 32,460 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Period BANK CREDIT MONEYSTOCKMEASURES RESERVES Total Pvt. ep. 2 3 Adjusted Credit Proxy OTHER MEASURES Total 2/ Loans & Investments Total Time Time Other than GO's Thrift Institution Deposits 1 ps NonDepotta Funds ANNUALLY: Dec. Dec. Dec. 2 594.0 641.3 727.7 307.7 332.9 364.3 405.6 438.5 487.6 194.4 229.2 270.9 183.5 203.9 237.9 201.7 216.1 253.8 193.1 193.8 194.8 784.0 791.6 799.0 388.3 391.4 394.5 525.1 531.4 537.7 295.0 298.9 301.9 256.8 259.8 262.0 279.6 283.2 286.9 251.6 252.7 255.5 195.9 196.5 198.7 807.0 813.6 822.0 398.4 401.9 406.4 542. 552.4 559.0 304.8 308.4 312.8 264.8 267.1 269.6 290.6 293.8 296.9 29,411 29,296 29,622 255.4 256.7 256.6 198.4 199.3 198.7 828.7 834.9 839.7 409.2 414.8 421.6 567.3 578.5 586.8 316.9 322.6 330.9 272.5 273.8 276.0 300.8 304.4 307.0 30,167 30,195 30,800 29,860 30,095 30,511 258.2 260.5 263.2 199.5 201.6 203.9 845.6 852.0 859.4 426.2 430.5 434.5 593.2 601.4 605.5 336.7 341.8 344.1 278.0 280.1 282.0 309.4 311.4 314.2 33,569 33,898 34,145 32,332 31,996 32,604 31,324 31,961 32,311 264.3 263.9 263.4 204.9 204.2 203.3 863.5 866.5 868.8 437.7 443.9 445.9 612.2 620.7 622.8 347.7 353.6 355.6 283.3 286.6 288.9 315.9 315.9 316.6 34,971 34.803 34,957 33,553 33,539 33,252 32,759 32,571 32,623 264.4 266.6 268.7 204.0 205.8 207.2 875.4 882.6 899.3 446.5 446.6 449.8 626.3 628.9 629.7 356.1 356.8 360.6 292.8 295.8 298.1 318.3 320.2 322.6 392.3 425.2 473.8 Nov. 7 14 21 28 34,658 34,675 35,216 34,606 33,235 32,943 33,875 33,777 32,496 32,464 32,892 32,369 266.4 267.0 267.5 265.4 205.9 206.2 206.4 204.6 446.8 446.4 446.6 446.5 356.8 356.7 356.1 357.2 295.1 295.9 295.3 296.1 Dec. 5 12 19 26 35,009 34,514 35,217 35,196 33,218 31,941 33,153 34,188 32,802 32,311 32,765 32,873 266.6 267.9 268.8 269.2 205.9 206.4 207.3 207.1 446.8 447.0 448.2 451.7 357.8 359.2 360.7 361.5 296.7 296.4 298.7 298.6 34,906 35,502 33,474 34,497 32,415 32,459 269.4 267.6 207.5 205.5 453.9 453.8 363.5 364.4 299.5 300.1 Jan. 2 p 9p p - Pieliminary NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning OLtober 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which aif or last day of month. Weekly datai are not available for M3, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. EbtimIoted monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. 1/ Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes. 2/ Series revised to incorporate new season.alfactorb and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustments. U.S. Gov't Demand Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply--New Revised Series (Per cent change at an annual rate) M2 M1 1972 1973 M Q I 9.0 II III M3 M Q M 5.3 12.3 11.0 14.6 13.2 6.2 8.2 8.9 10.9 12.0 8.7 8.2 10.8 10.8 12.8 12.6 IV 9.9 8.4 10.6 10.2 11.8 11.8 I 3.8 7.1 6.9 8.9 9.4 10.8 11.1 8.6 10.4 9.1 7.9 4.5 7.2 8.6 9.3 7.4 II 11.5 7.3 III -0.2 5.5 IV 8.0 4.1 5.2 10.2 9.8 H_ m 4 ___ 5 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels three months of the quarters. in all Appendix Table IV Comparison of Published, Preliminary Revised and New Revised M 1 and M 2 Growth Rates Ml M2 Preliminary New Revised Revised Preliminary New Published Revised Revised Published 6.6 8.3 5.2 6.3 8.7 6.3 6.3 8.7 5.9 11.4 10.8 7.9 11.2 11.1 8.9 11.2 11.1 8.6 Annual: 1971 1972 1973 Half year: 1971 1st Half 2nd Half 10.1 3.0 9.9 2.6 9.9 2.6 14.9 7.4 14.8 7.1 14.8 7.1 1972 1st Half 2nd Half 7.7 8.5 7.7 9.4 7.7 9.4 10.8 10.3 10.7 11.0 10.7 10.9 1973 1st Half 2nd Half 6.0 4.2 7.7 4.7 7.7 3.9 7.7 7.9 9.0 8.5 9.1 7.8 Quarterly: 1972 I II III IV 9.2 6.1 8.2 8.6 9.0 6.2 8.7 9.9 9.0 6.2 8.7 9.9 12.7 8.5 10.3 10.2 12.3 8.9 10.8 10.6 12.3 8.9 10.8 10.6 1973 I II III IV 1.7 10.3 0.3 8.0 3.4 11.8 0.8 9.2 3.8 11.5 -0.2 8.0 5.7 9.5 5.1 10.5 6.5 11.3 6.2 10.6 6.9 11.1 5.2 10.2 January -0.5 4.7 4.7 6.4 9.1 9.4 February March 6.1 -0.5 6.5 -0.9 7.0 -0.5 5.9 4.7 6.3 4.1 6.8 4.5 April Nay June July August September October November December 7.5 10.7 12.4 5.0 -1.8 -2.3 4.6 10.0 9.5 6.5 13.4 15.1 5.0 0.0 -2.7 6.3 10.6 8.5 6.0 13.9 14.2 4.1 -0.9 -3.6 5.0 10.4 8.5 8.1 9.8 10.4 5.1 6.4 3.9 10.4 11.4 9.4 8.3 12.3 13.0 6.6 7.2 4.8 11.4 11.3 9.4 8.3 11.8 12.8 5.7 6.3 3.7 10.8 10.9 8.7 Monthly: 1973 

Federal Reserve (1974, January 21). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740122

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19740122,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1974},
  month = {Jan},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19740122},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}