Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) November 16, 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM November 16, 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) After two months of net decline, the narrowly defined money stock grew at about a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate in October, and there appears to have been a further acceleration in early November. For October and November combined, M 1 appears to be growing at an annual rate of slightly above 6 per cent, which, as the table shows, is in excess of the range of tolerance adopted at the last Committee meeting. M 2 is also exceeding its October-November range of tolerance by a sizable amount, as time and savings deposits other than large CD's have been increasing more rapidly than expected. However, until the most recent statement week, large CD's outstanding, continued to decline; as a result, the adjusted credit proxy is likely to show no net growth for the October-November period. The related cut-back in bank need for reserves has contributed to a contraction in RPD's, which are running far below the Committee's target range. Table 1 Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in October-November Target Period Reserves and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Range of Tolerance Latest Estimates RPD's 2--5 M1 1--4 6.2 M2 5--8 10.6 Memo: Average for Statment week Fed funds rate (per cent per annum) -4.2 9-1/4--10-1/4 Ending 11/7 11/14 9.71 10.03 -2(2) The marked further attrition in large CD's reflected both the high marginal reserve costs of CD's relative to other sources of bank funds and the shift of business borrowing from banks to the commercial paper market. The interest cost of commercial paper had declined sub- stantially relative to the prime rate after the last Committee meeting, but most recently commercial paper rates have begun to rise. Reduced market rates in October help to explain the faster than anticipated growth in other time and savings deposits at banks, as well as the improved flow of savings funds into savings and loan associations. is As usual, it difficult to isolate factors that account for short-run variations in the demand for M1. However, the large liquidation of dollar holdings by foreign central banks may have been a special factor accounting for temporary increases in the cash balances of those receiving dollars, and financial market uncertainties related to the energy crisis may also have led to some temporary rise in demand for M1. (3) Early in the inter-meeting period short-term interest rates recorded further general declines, as market participants continued to anticipate additional System action to correct the sluggish late summer performance of the monetary aggregates. Later on, however, as the monetary aggregates showed some strength and the Federal funds rate remained generally stable, market judgments about the likely course of interest rates changed, and Treasury bill rates began to rise toward levels consistent with the prevailing funds rate. Initially, the adjustment process was relatively gradual, but reactions in foreign exchange markets to the Mid-East oil supply situation entailed large-scale shifts in funds and triggered sizable foreign central bank liquidation of U.S. Government securities, including special issues. To protect its cash position against further liquidation of special issues at a time when overdrafts on the System were no longer available, the Treasury announced an unanticipated bill strip offering, even before its mid-November refunding had been settled. Responding to these unexpected developments, rates in short-term markets rose sharply--particularly in the Treasury bill area, where the yield on the 3-month issue moved to about 8-5/8 per cent by November 13. (4) In view of the sudden unsettlement of the Government securities market at a time when the Treasury refunding was still in process of distribution, the Desk moved cautiously in its reserve absorption operations. With market factors tending to supply reserves, the average Federal funds rate actually edged a little lower for a time. More recently, however, with new issues in the refunding fairly well distributed and general pressures in the credit market tending to subside, the Desk has been able to permit the funds market to tighten, and the Federal funds rate has moved up to 10 per cent or slightly above. At the same time, the 3-month bill rate has fluctuated sharply, dropping abruptly to 7.53 per cent on Thursday and closing at around 7.60 per cent on Friday. (5) Since the recent behavior of the 3-month issue has reflected technical market conditions, the basic state of the bill market may be better measured by the 6-month rate, most recently quoted at around 8.20 per cent, or 90 basis points above its level at the time of the last Committee meeting. In long-term markets, municipal and Treasury bond yields, have risen 20-25 basis points over the period, but yields on new high-grade corporate issues have shown little net change and mortgage market rates have declined. (6) The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time periods. Appendix Table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis. Past 3 Calendar Years Dec. '72 over Dec. '69 Past 12 Months Oct. '73 over Oct.'72 Total reserves 8.4 9.0 8.4 5.9 13.5 Nonborrowed reserves 8.8 6.5 13.9 3.9 18.7 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 9.0 11.1 11.3 7.3 M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 7.5 5.1 4.8 0.2 M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 11.3 7.9 7.9 7.1 10.9 M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 12.8 8.5 7.1 5.6 9.4 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10.7 12.1 9.6 8.1 1.9 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 12.4 15.4 11,2 9.2 6,7 .9 2.0 0.8 -0.4 Past 6 Honths Oct. '73 over Apr. '73 Past 3 Months Oct. '73 over July '73 Past Month Oct. '73 over Sept. '23 Concepts of Money 4.6 Bank Credit Short-term market .paper (Monthly ave. change in billions) Large CD's -3.4 Nonbank commercial 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.3 0. 1 paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last-Wednesday-o€month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve raequireeents are changed. Prospective developments (7) The alternatives for Committee consideration summarized below (and detailed on p. 6a) include annual rates of growth for M1 over the fourth quarter of 1973 and the first quarter of 1974 combined of 6 per cent (alt. A), 5 per cent (alt. B), and 4 per cent (alt. C), Alt. A Alt. Alt. C B Targets (4th & 1st qtrs. combined) M1 6 5 4 M2 8-1/2 7-1/2 6-1/2 Credit proxy 5 4 3-1/2 Associated ranges for November-December 1973 - 1-1/2 to -3-1/2 to -3 RPD 0 to -2 M1 5-1/2 to 7-1/2 4-1/2 to 6-1/2 4 to 6 M2 7-1/2 to 9-1/2 6-1/2 to 8-1/2 6 to 8 Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) (8) -1 8-3/4 to 10-1/4 9-1/2 to 10-1/2 10 to 11-1/2 A 5 per cent growth path for M1 from September is illustrated by the dashed lines on the chart on the following page. The bottom line of the chart shows M1 before the forthcoming annual revision (expected to be ready by mid-December). a rough estimate for M1 The top line of the chart shows as it will be after revision. We do not have new seasonal factors yet, but the benchmark adjustment appears to add MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1280 5% GROWTH 270 - REVISED Ml (PRELIMINARY) 260 CURRENTLY PUBLISHED M1 J F M A I I, I I . J M J J 1973 I A I S I 0 I N D JJ F F 1974 M M A A 250 Alternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates IL Alt. A M2 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. 1973 Oct. Nov. Dec. 264.4 266.1 267.2 264.4 266.1 266.8 264.4 266.0 266.5 557.3 562. 1 565.2 557.3 562.0 564.5 557.3 562.0 563.8 875.6 882.3 887.9 875.6 882.1 886.8 875.6 882.1 885.6 1974 Mar. 271.2 270.0 268.9 576.5 573.1 569.9 906.4 901.6 896.4 Quarters; Rates of Growth 1973 4th Q. 5.8 5.2 4.7 9.3 .8.8 1974 1st Q. 6.0 4.8 3.6 8.0 6.1 4.3 7.7 5.0 7.7 3.2 10. 1 5.3 10.1 3.8 Mofths: NOv. Dec. 1973 10.3 6.6 .8.3 Total Reserves B ~--Alt. A Alt. - Adjusted Credit. Proxy Alt. C Alt. B 1it. A Alt. Oct. Nov. Dec. 446.6 445.7 448.4 446.6 445.6 447.8 446.6 445.6 447.5 34,955 34,739 34,816 34,955 34,738 34,759 34,955 34,736 34,717 Mar. 457.4 454.8 453.3 35,194 35,009 34,904 4th Q. 1974 1st Q. C 8.8 8.3 7.7 8.3 6.7 4.9 9.2 7.6 8.9 6.4 8.9 4.8 A RPD Alt. B Alt. 32,736 32,550 32,734 33,507 32,736 32,548 32,678 33,322 32,736 32,547 32,636 33,218 Alt. C Rates of Growth Quarters: 1973 C 2.2 6.3 2.4 1.7 -0.5 4.3 2.9 9.4 -8.9 2.7 -8.9 6.7 -1.2 -1.7 7.9 7.1 -8.5 4.8 -8.5 3.3 Months: Dov. Dec. -2.4 7.3 -2.7 5.9 -2.7 5.1 -9.0 -0.7 -8.4 6.8 about $3--$3-1/2 billion to the level of M1 in September, amounts in earlier months, nonmember bank deposits. and smaller due mainly to larger than estimated growth in The rate of growth for the year ending September in the revised figures will be around 6-1/2--7 per cent, as compared with 5.3 per cent for the unrevised, currently published figures. All of the tables are, of course, based on the unrevised figures since the new data will not be available on a firm enough basis to guide operations between now and the next meeting. (9) Under alternative B, M1 is indicated to expand in November- December at a 4-1/2-6-1/2 per cent annual rate, given a Federal funds rate range centered around 10 per cent. RPD growth in this period is expected to be negative, however, because reserves required to be held against bank CD's are expected to drop further despite a projected pick-up in CD issuance later this year. (10) The demand for M1 (as well as for short-term interest earning assets) in the near-term is likely to be sustained by financial and economic uncertainties generated by the energy crisis. In addition to these precautionary demands for cash, expansion in nominal GNP is projected to be sizable in the fourth quarter and is likely to require expanding transactions demands for money. However, the impacts of the energy crisis on transactions demands for cash are by no means clear. If the crisis lowers the rate of growth in nominal GNP, transactions demands would likely be dampened somewhat for any given Federal funds rate. On the other hand, if nominal GNP expands about as projected (even though real GNP growth may be adversely affected), for money may not be significantly altered. effects are most likely to be felt these demands These income and output after the turn of the year, however. -8(11) While any significant income effects of an energy shortage are likely to come later rather than sooner, market interest rates could be influenced by anticipations of a slowing in income growth and a reduction over the short-run in credit demands. Thus, between now and the next meeting of the Committee, short-term rates could drop back toward the late October lows or even further for expectational reasons, and the spread between the funds rate and short-term rates could again widen. The recent decline in Treasury bill rates may already have discounted a considerable amount of potential weakness in credit demand, but as indicated earlier, bill rates, and particularly the 3-month bill, have been extremely volatile in recent days. (12) Apart from expectational effects related to the energy crisis, upward pressure on short-term rates might be anticipated over the next few weeks as business credit demands at banks and in the open market combined continue fairly strong and as the Treasury comes to market to borrow new cash in early December, presumably through tax bills. Our estimates suggest a cash need of about $4 billion. (13) Under alternative A the Federal funds rate is likely to decline toward 8-3/4 per cent by the next Committee meeting as reserves are provided to support a movement toward the higher longer-run growth path for the aggregates indicated under that alternative. And under alternative C the funds rate is likely to rise toward 11-1/2 per cent in the process of moving toward its lower aggregate growth path. Under current circumstances, the market is sensitive to small changes in the funds rate, and would be even more sensitive to sustained increases or -9decreases. Thus, an appreciable decline in market rates is likely under alternative A and a large rise under alternative C. (14) Under alternative C, disintermediation would clearly once again become a pressing problem, particularly around the year-end reinvestment period. Under alternative B, however, net inflows of consumer- type time deposits to banks and to thrift institutions may be at a moderate pace over the next few months. Growth of such deposits at banks is likely to slow from the relatively rapid pace of recent months, when banks were able to offer a varied and attractive menu of ceiling-free certificates. Banks and thrift institutions could, however, have an unfavorable experience around the year-end reinvestment period even under alternative B if credit demands are strong enough to generate rising short-term market interest rates around that time. (15) With regard to bank credit, we have assumed that the recent rise in the commercial paper rate will lead to a renewal of business loan growth at banks at a moderate pace in the last few weeks of the year and thus to some renewed demand for CD funds. In addition, we have assumed a modest net addition to banks' bill holdings, largely as a result of participation in the forthcoming Treasury financing. But we expect most of the bills to be acquired by nonbank investors, after initial tax and loan underwriting by banks. In part reflecting these developments, the bank credit proxy is expected to rise modestly in December, following a period of virtual stagnation in October and November taken together. -10- (16) In long-term markets, a relatively large volume of new corporate and state and local government bond issues are expected to be offered between now and the mid-December holiday lull. As a result, bond yields may come under some upward pressure under alternative B, upward rate pressure would be considerably greater under alternative C. The energy crisis could augment upward rate pressures by increasing inflationary expectations and/or by stimulating anticipations of additional real capital investment. -11Proposed directive (17) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. In all three alternatives, it is proposed to delete the reference to Treasury financing because the quarterly refunding announced on October 24 has been completed. Alternatives A and C refer to growth in the monetary aggregates that "has occurred over the past 6 months"; the annual rates of growth from April through October for M1, M2, and the bank credit proxy are, respectively, 4.8, 7.9, and 9.6 per cent. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of[DEL: the of] and financing Treasury forthcoming international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent withmoderate] [DEL: FASTER growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS. Alternative B To implement this policy, of] and financing Treasury forthcoming financial market developments, while taking account of [DEL: the international and domestic the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. -12- Alternative C the To implement this policy, while taking account of[DEL: of] and financing Treasury forthcoming international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate] SLOWER growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS. CHART 1 (FR) CONFIDENTIAL STRICTLY 11/16/73 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 34 33 5% growth for Oct -Nov 2% growth - 32 32 I /V * (11/14/73) -30 31 A S 0 1973 N 28 ',, I M J 1972 * i iI t , S D t i [ M i J lS O 1973 Break in Series ActLa Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9, 1972, July 19, 1973, end October 4, 1973 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 2 11/16/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 270 270 S-AI (11/14/73) 250 4% growth for Oct -Nov 265 I SI I I I II I II 230 I i I1 I I I i I l j I i 1 i1 1 1 i ,1 1 1 1 260 1% growth BROADER MONEY SUPPLY I 600 255 580 ~~~ I i ii i 560 4/73) 540 \5% growth 520 500 480 SJ 1972 1972 1973 J J A S 1973 0 - CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 11/16/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF 460 111/14/73) 430 414) J I I I -c TOTAL RESERVES 1972 1973 J J A S O 1973 N D SBreak in series, Actual Level of Total Peserves After Changes in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9, 1972, July 19, 1973, and October 4, 1973 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT . - 11 LY AVERAGES FEDERAL FUNDS RATE RESEAVE!S BILLIONS IROE B .1 86PtRowE0 cJANr NET B6OROWED\" Ni\ L S1 I I 1972 I I I I I I I I 1§73 OFOLLA I I 1972 1973 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL --------------------- TABLE 1 NOVEMBER 16, BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) ---------------------------------------- --- - - -- - -- -- -- -- - -- -- - -- --- - -- -11 AGGREGATF RESFRVES I REQUIRED RESERVES ( ----------------------------------------------------S RESFRVF, AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE NONRANK DEPOSITS II SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ---------------------------------------------SII------I----------------------------I TOTAL NONRORROWED 1 PRIVATE OTHER CnOS AND I SEAS AD. I NON SEAS AOJ II RFSFRVES RESERVES I DEMAND TIME DEP NON OEP PERIOD S (1) I -- &#45;&#45;&#45; (7) (3) ( (4) ) (6) (7) 1973 - ---- GOV'T AND INTERBANK (8) II MONTHIY LFVr S-SMILLTONSI ------------------------ F 173--AUG. SEDT. 1 OCT. NOV. I ANNIUAL PATFS OF CHAGF oUAITERLY:i -----173--1ST OTR. ?NO OTR. 300 TR. 4AT OT,. 31.961 32.311 37.736 (37.548) 1 31.672 32*096 32.638 (32,630) 1 I I I ( 10.5 12.0 13.6 -2.2) 1 .4 13.1 0.0 - .5) I -4.2) I I WEEKLY LFVELS-$MILLTON --------------------- 33.89A 39.145 3*.955 (34*738) 1 i.8 I II 1 II I II I F 1 I OCT.-NOV. I II 11 II 1 II II 31.996 32,604 33*536 (33.*42) I 1 1 1 19.964 19«87? 19*899 (19.891) 89027 8.185 8.299 ( 8*430) 2.0 2. -0.3 -8.4) 1 7.7 9.9 14.5 14.1) -9.7 -5.5 -24.n ( -3.0) 1 18.2 23.6 16.7 18.9) ( -13.%) ( 18.0) 3.806 4*068 4.304 ( 4055) 1.938 1833 2.219 ( 2,189) I 1 MONTHLY: 1973--AtUG. SEPT OCT. NOV. I I I I I 5.8 10.3 0.8) Ft I I I II II -5.1 8.7 13.5 -8.9) (I I I -4.4) F 1 F it I I I 1 -7.1 17.3 12.4 2.2) -30.3 22.8 IA.? ( -4.9) ( 6.9) 1 1 F I F I SII I 19,9n 8.196 4.096 1.970 II 34.644 31.224 1 46500 2067 31*438 I 19Q594 8*262 1 II 34.876 1 20,065 89298 4*336 29343 II 34*867 33.672 F 11 35.168 339479 I 1982P 89326 4.283 2,286 2.285 4.186 8*354 1 20.071 35,041 33.743 II I I Ifl 19.681 8,376 4 168 2.172 32.490 1 34.605 33.182 I NOV. 7 1 32,432 49111 2.193 32.801 19.916 8453 14 37.340 I 32.548 II 34.533 1 FI I ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NOTEt DATA SHOWN IN PARPNTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH HAVE BEEN AOJUSTFf FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUTIFMENTS EFFECTIVE JULY 19. AND OCT .* 1973. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF OCTOBER 16* 1973 THF COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD RANGE OF 2 TO 5 PER CENT. OCT. 3 10 17 24 31 3?674 32,80q 32.524 3?.883 32*756 1 32.715 32*558 32.481 32.690 32.790 - TABLE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 2 NOVEMBER 16, 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) --------------------- w-----------w------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I MONEY SUPPLY I ADJUSTED II U.S. I TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS I NONOEPOSIT I SOURCES OF OTHER I i I I CREDIT II GOVT. NARPOW I BROAD I I THAN CO S I CO S I FUNDS I (M21 I PROXY 1I DEPOSITS I TOTAL PEIOb I (MI) ---.------ ----------------------------- --------- m ---e -------- m -----em --m-wom -m " ------------- ---------- w ------- m ---- (t) (2) (3) (5) IA) (6) (7) I 6 7.0 6 6.8 6 3.4 16 1.7) I I I I 64.9 63.9 63.1 63.3 62.5 I II MONTHLY LEVELS-RILLIONS ----------*****---I 1973--4IJ. SEPT, OCT. NOV. PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH --------------------QUARTERLY --------1973--1ST OTR 2N0 OTR, 30 OTR. ATH T0. MONTHIY ------1973--AUG. SET. OCT. NOV. II 263.9 263.4 264.4 ------ I I I 443.9 445.9 446.6 1445.b5 11 I 3 53.6 355.6 3 56,3 (3157.7) 4.2 5.1 6.6 ( 5.7) I 2A6.6 202,9 (296.0) 7.1 7.3 6.9 ( 6.7) I I I I I 1.7 10.3 0.3 ( 5.2) I 1 .2 III II 15.0 II 12.2 II 5.7 9.5 5.1 1 9.4) I -I.B -2.3 4.6 ( 7.7) I I S6.2) 6. 3.9 10.9 (10.3) 23.1 16.0 13.4 ( 7.) 10.5 ( 1.0) I I OCT.-NOV. VFEKLY LEVFL-SRILLTONS I (266.1) S50. 552.3 557.3 ( 562.11 I I I (10.6) II H II 1.9 (-3.0) 1 20*4 6.8 2.4 ( 4.7) (-0.5) I ( 17.0 5.4 I I 1 I I "; I 9.5 8.7 9,8 (13.3) 149.0 1*.0 9.6 16.6 (12.7) I (14.71 II II I -------------- I II OCT. NOV. 3 10 17 S 31 7 P 14 PE I I I 1 I 1 I 264,6 263.6 265,6 262. 265.0 I I 555.1 555.1 559.0 556.1 560.4 1 561.5 561.5 I I Z66.5 266,0 1 1 I DATA SHOWN 1 I 446.6 445.3 I ------------------------------------------- NOTEI I 447.7 446.1 449,3 445.0 446.2 &#45;&#45;&#45; 1 11 It I II II II If If &#45;&#45;&#45; IN PARENTHESES ARE 5.9 6.9 7.5 6,8 5.3 I I I 355*3 355.4 355.6 356,5 3R58.O 1 6.3 6.5 I I I I 290.4 291.5 292.5 203.3 295.4 1 356.7 357.1 I 1 I I 1 I 61.6 61.6 29501 295.5 1 1 1 I I 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.6 I ----------------------- CURRENT PROJECTIONS. P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) NOVEMBER 16, 1973 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept (1) Open Market Operationsl/ Coupon Agency RP'q Total Issues Issues Net3/ (5) (4) (3) (2) Daily Average Reserve Effect2/ Other4/ & Member Open Market Bank Borrowing Factors Operations (8) (7) (6) in reserve categories A req. res. against available res.5/ U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9)5/ (10) (9) A Target available reserves5/ (11) Moenthly -74 207 -19 -414 1,106 1,323 -137 -884 376 505 May -506 -- -21 -942 -1,470 1,437 66 -1,392 45 66 200 June 649 228 209 -- 1,085 -1,450 1 1,084 -470 105 175 Tuly Aug. Sept Oct. Nov Dec. 1,073 -753 -494 1,972 27 ---- 168 -20 -30 172 1,148 -143 531 295 2,416 -915 7 2,440 2,090 -818 -583 1,985 263 93 -282 -394 -850 978 1,150 -668 311 -304 -133 380 1,185 557 418 543 795 680 475 1,005 860 530 197) -- April 1,332 Weekly 1973 -- Sept. 5 -228 -- -5 158 -75 -198 -7 -132 457 12 -417 169* -26 -619 -893 -2,683* -875 2,962 41 -637 19 26 89 118 -169' -- &#45;&#45;&#45; -109 2,051 -189 2,169 356* 1,438* 216 485 -237 -1,639 27 63 308 221 3 10 17 313 589 590 ---- -20 -- 1,567 -5,668 4,648 1,880 -5,059 5,238 1,491 -559 632 -670 -168 -182 -293 850 -230 -5 280 297 593 -157 -77 74 302 -- 152 -71 383 351 745 -1,090 -203 209 31 303 -- -- 716 1,019 -95 -459p 499p -155p lOOp 7 14 -418 -303 -- &#45;&#45;&#45; -2,811 2,571 -3,229 2,268 -326 -848 -285p 351p 217p 6 3 5 p - 94p 94p -3 p 62p Oct. Nov. 00 21 28 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ auctions. Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period: includes redemptions in regular bill Represents change in daily average level from preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Target change for October and November reflects the target adopted at the October 16, 1973 FOMC Reserves to support private nonbank deposits meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. * Includes effect of special certificate (i.e., borrowing by Treasury from F.R.). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) NOVEMBER 16, 1973 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars U.S Govt. Security Dealer Positions[ Dealer Positions Bills - Coupon Issues (7) (1) Corporate oBonds (3) I Member Bank Reserves Positions Basic Reserve Deficit.. Municipal Excess** Bonds Reserves Total Seasonal (4) (5) (6) (7) Borrowing at FRB** 8 New York (8) 38. Others (9) 1972 -- High Low 4,291 1,916 1,585 -93 235 0 383 40 796 -133 1,223 12 -5,635 -1,638 -5,720 -1,910 1973 -- High Low 3,718 897 1,299 -301 175 0 384 36 631 -175 2,561 688 -5,243 -1,831 -8.519 -4,048 1972 -- Oct Nov. Oec. 2,887 3,096 3,510 207 1,019 953 105 84 58 132 191 291 247 314 219 574 606 1,049 -3,637 -4,561 -4,977 -4,044 -3,622 -4,958 1973 -- Jan Feb Mar 3,407 2,132 2,490 720 562 -50 27 77 24 177 123 125 289 207 177 1,161 1,594 1,825 -4,550 -4,187 -4,273 -5,469 -5,436 -5,847 Apr May Tune 2,457 1,894 2,281 106 421 562 12 66 33 60 151 120 255 161 234 1,688 1,843 1,851 3 30 75 -3,293 -3,019 -3,507 -6,577 -5,872 -6,443 Tuly Aug. Sept 1,425 1,690 7,745 265 39 395 24 0 6 139 70 80 285 177 216 1,953 2,165 1,801 155 163 148 -2,460 -2,689 -3,173 -6,106 -4,940 -5,355 Oct. *2,565 * 484 44 226 182p 1,477p 12 p -3,814p -6,090 1973 -- 6 Sept. 5 12 19 26 2,390 3,169 2,924 2,255 386 395 323 443 15 0 10 0 36 89 58 136 477 124 136 74 2,363 1,488 1,704 2,189 168 145 139 150 -2,075 -3,471 -3,687 -3,050 -4,240 -6,233 -5,672 -5,494 Oct. 3 10 17 24 31 2,124 462 447 416 *462 *629 60 15 117 18 38 177 155 384 189 185 452 400 -91 2 5 7 p 123p 1,519 1,351 1,169 1,914p 1,455p 144 131 126 125p 119p -2,910 -3,526 -4,614 -3,906 -3,591 -4,612 -6,593 -6,669 -5,877 -5,773 154 I55p 202p 21p 1,170p 1,571p 93p 80p -5,162p -5,120p -6,878p -8,519p Nov 7 14 21 28 2,743 2,372 *2,640 *2,823 *2,973 *2,975 * 1,299 859 2 75p Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements Notes: Government Security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. maturing in 16 days Or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt issues in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds still Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. purchases * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Beginning with January 1973, week figures monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement CONFIDENTIAL (FR) NOVEMBER 16, 1973 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent ,i Short-Term Treasury Bills Period i Federal Funds 90-Day ~_ 90-119 Day Commercial Paner 1-Year (4) (1) 1972 -- 1972 -- 1973 -- 5.50 T 60-89 Dav (5) 90-119 Day TI (6) - h t -Te- Aaa Utility New Recently Issue Offered ' (7) (8) Tnna-Term - U.S. Government Municipal (10-yr. Constant Bond Buver Maturitvy ~r _ _ (10) (9) FNMA Auction Yields (11) 7.60 6.99 7.46 7.12 5.54 4.96 6.58 5.87 7.72 7.54 10.75 5.50 8.52 8.30 5.59 7.29 7.26 4.99 7.54 6.42 9.37 7.69 5.19 5.19 5.13 5.38 7.38 7.09 7.15 7.38 7.18 7.18 5.19 5.02 5.05 6.48 6.28 6.36 7.72 7.71 7.68 5.76 6.17 6.76 5.63 6.16 6.78 5.75 6.28 6.75 7.38 7.40 7.49 7.35 7.41 7.51 5.05 5.13 5.29 6.46 6.64 6 71 7.69 7.72 7 78 7.12 7.84 8 49 7.13 7.26 8.00 7.04 7.44 7.98 6.75 7.41 8.13 7.48 7.51 7.64 7.48 7.50 7.64 5.15 5.15 5.18 6.67 6.85 6.90 7.89 7 98 8 07 10.40 10.50 10.78 9.26 10.26 16.31 9.09 10.25 10.31 9.19 10.40 10.50 8.01 8.36 7.88 7.97 7.99 5.40 5.48 5.10 7 13 7.40 7.09 8 46 8.83 9.32 10.01 9.14 9.15 9.08 7.92p 7.94p 5.65 6.79 9.01 sept. 5 12 19 26 10.79 10.74 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.94 7.74 8.02 5.18 10.84 10.50 10.10 7.81 8.03 7.84 5.18 5.05 5.00 7.13 7.19 7.09 6.95 9.27 8.06 10.80 10.75 10.75 10.75 9.75 Oct. 3 10 17 24 31 10.72 9.87 10.07 9.98 9.90 9.63 9.53 9.33 9.06 8.45 9.75 9.50 9.38 9.25 8.75 8.50 7 75 7.96 7.99 7.97 7.76 7.90 7.88 7.98 7.98 7.97 5.04 4.99 5.05 5.12 5.17 6.89 6.77 6.80 6.75 6.72 9.11 9.50 7 14 21 28 9.71 10.03 8.78 9.03 8.75 8.00 8.02 7.98p 8.00p 5.19 5.27 6.76 6.78p Ilgh 5.50 3.75 5.38 3.13 10.84 5.61 10.50 5.63 10.50 5.38 Oct Nov Dec. 5.04 5.06 5.33 5.21 5.18 5.40 5.00 Tan I eh Mar 5.94 Apr. May Tunep Tuly Aug Sept. Low 1973 -- 5.38 3.18 S CD's New Issue-NYC llgh Low 6.58 7.09 Oct 3.50 5.00 8.22 Nov 1973 -- Nov. ---- Notes: -- 1 I ' 10.56 10.50 9.75 9.25 8.75 8.56 8.50 8.88 9.00 i 8.03 ' -- J.L----------I- ~L~ ~i L-------- 9.37 8.97 8.94 8.87 &#45;&#45;&#45; Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8 and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. yield in the bi-weekly suction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. The FNMA auction yield is the average CONFIDENTIAL (FR) November 16, Appendix Table I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Money Stock Meaures Reserves Period Total ( )" Nonborrowed (2) Available to Support Pvt. Deposits (37 M 1 (4) M 2 (5) M 3 (h) Bank. redit. Measuren Adjusted Credit Proxy (1) Total 2 Loans and Investments Total Time (9) Time Other than CD's ) Other Thrift Institution! Deposits 1' (11) +7.5 -1.1 +6.1 410.6 +5.3 -2.8 +9.6 48.1 +7.1 48.1 -1.7 +8.6 +7.7 +9.7 47.8 +3.6 +6.0 +6.6 +8.3 *9.3 +2.6 +8.6 +11 4 +10.8 +8.3 +2.9 +8.0 +13.5 +13.0 +9.5 +0.4 +8.2 +9 4 +11.6 e49t-Annu Ily sqt nalf 1971 7,nd HUlf 1971 1st (Half1972 2nd HTlf 1977 *9.7 4- .6 +11.7 49.0 +9.6 +6.1 +12.1 +2.0 +10.7 43.4 +8.6 +10.4 +10.1 +3.0 +7.7 +8.5 +16.9 47.4 +10.8 +10.3 +16.4 +9.8 +13.0 +12.1 +10.1 48.4 +11.4 +11.1 +12.1 1st Half 1971 47.4 +4.9 +11.4 +6.0 *7.7 +9.1 Quarterly Ird Qtr. 1971 6th Q-r 1971 46.5 +7.3 +6.6 +6.0 +3.2 +3.6 44.1 +1.9 46.0 +8.7 1977 1972 1977 1972 +10.4 +12.6 +3 6 +14.2 +10.7 +13.1 -0.8 44.8 +10.4 +6.6 +9.9 +10.6 +9.2 +6.1 +8 2 +8.6 +12.7 +8.5 +10.3 +10.2 st Otr. 1973 2nd Otr. 1973 3rd Qtr. 1973 48 8 +5.8 +10.3 -7 1 +17.3 +12.4 +10.5 +12.0 +13.6 +1.7 +10.3 +0.3 +5.7 +9.5 +5.1 47.7 mst Otr. 7nd 3tr 3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. +11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5 +11.2 +1.4 +11.1 +16.7 +13.3 4-6.3 +3.6 +7.1 +17.4 +17.0 +13.6 +16.7 +21.6 +13.6 +15.4 +14.5 +20.0 +12.1 +13.7 +12.1 +19.3 +14.3 +17.3 +15.4 +13.8 +16.6 +20.0 +9.2 +11.6 +8.9 +10.5 +6.7 +9.8 +8.5 +10.6 +9.8 +16.6 +8.0 +15.9 +14.9 410.7 +12.4 +11.5 +11.0 +11.5 +9.8 +12.1 +15.7 +11.1 +13.0 +15.8 +15.4 +16.8 +14.0 +14.4 +15.0 +12.2 +10.5 +19.9 +12.7 +11.6 +8.6 +9.4 +4.4 Iondeposit Funds (') ) U.S. Gov't Demand (41 (Dollas Change in Billions) (Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) 1968 1964 1970 1971 1972 CI's (fi) 1973 +10.9 +2.9 +8.1 +11.2 +16.6 49.7 -0.6 +0.5 +1.1 -0.3 +0.4 +2.9 -12.4 +14.4 +7.7 +10.1 +2.6 +13.0 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +4.3 +3.4 +4.4 +5.7 -7.1 -0.4 -0.3 +0.6 -1.4 +1.1 -+0.4 +18.9 +1.2 -1.4 +14.5 +13.5 +1.7 +1.8 -0.4 -- +1.1 - +16.1 +10.8 +12.3 +11.6 +19.1 +14.7 +16.2 +13.9 +0.8 +3.7 +2.4 +3.3 -0.3 -+0.4 +0.3 -0.4 +0.5 -1.1 +1.4 +23.1 +16.0 +13.4 +9.5 +8.7 +9.8 +13.6 +9.4 +3.1 +11.7 +7.1 +4.7 +0.5 +0.7 +1.6 +0.9 -2.4 -- 1972- Tan. Teb. Mr Apr. May. lune July A7. Sept. Oct. Nov. nec. +21.8 -5.2 +14.5 +22.1 +8.8 +6.4 +5.2 +7.6 -1.9 +18.2 +11.4 +12.5 +76.7 -5 7 +11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2.9 +0.7 -6 1 +15.5 +9.8 -10.9 +11.0 +6.5 +13.4 +6.8 +3.9 +9.0 +6.9 +9.7 +12.9 +3.2 +20.8 +7.7 +1.0 +14.7 +11.5 +8.0 +4.0 +6.4 +12.7 +4.4 +7.2 +7.2 +5.2 +13.3 +10.4 +15.1 +12.4 +7.9 +8.3 +9.2 +12.5 +9.3 +8.7 +10.1 +1.9 +12.2 +13.2 +16.8 +14.2 +10.7 +10.1 +11.1 +13.9 +11.6 +11.2 +12.0 +9.8 +12.4 +9.2 +7.2 +16.2 +12.2 +15.6 +6.6 410.0 +9.6 +9.5 411.9 +10.5 +13.4 +15.3 +13.9 +17.3 +11.4 +15.2 +6.5 +9.9 +14.4 +14.2 +11.2 +21.4 +14.3 +17.7 +16.2 +11.6 +12.8 +18.2 +12.9 +13.6 +15.9 +12.0 +11.5 +14.2 +17.1 +19.2 +15.4 +13.2 +7.8 +13.0 +11.4 +12.3 +14.0 +10.2 +12.8 +10.4 +11.2 +18.9 +20.0 +17.4 +15 8 +13.4 +14.5 +17.0 +15.5 +15.7 +15.5 +13.2 +12.7 +0.1 +0.6 +0.1 +1.5 +1.5 +6.7 +0.8 +0.8 +0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9 -0.1 -0.3 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2 -+0.1 +0.3 -0.1 +0.2 -+0.1 +0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +0.7 -1.3 -1.6 -0.7 +0.6 +1.2 +0.6 -0.4 1973 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. +35.8 -22.1 +13.3 +17.3 +4.4 +0.6 +26.9 -5.1 +8.7 * 13.5 +31.3 -41.3 -10.5 +26.1 +1.1 +24.0 +44.9 -30.3 +22.8 * 18.7 +22.8 -4.7 +13.4 +9.6 +9.4 +16.6 +18.6 +8.4 +13.1 -- +6.4 -0.5 +5.9 +6.1 +4.7 -0.5 +8.1 +7.5 +9.8 +10.7 +10.4 +12.4 +5.0 +5.1 -1.8 +6.4 -2 3 +3.9 +4.6 +10.9 +9.8 +9.0 +6.9 +8.4 +9.1 +10.4 +5.6 +4.2 +3.2 +9.6 +8.3 +16.4 +19.7 +13.1 +12.1 +11.1 +8.8 +17.0 +5.4 +1.9 +17.8 +23.7 +17.2 +13.1 +16.6 +8.2 +13.3 1 +16.7 +4.1 +6.7 +15.7 +21.6 +30.9 +21.0 +18.2 +8.1 +12.6 +20.4 +6.8 +2.4 +12.9 +5.7 +9.6 +8.7 +9.1 +8.1 +5.5 +14.0 +9.6 +16.6 +15.8 +14.4 +10.2 +9.4 +7.8 +10.8 +6.5 -+2.7 +6.4 +1.2 +4.5 +6.1 +3.8 +3.1 +0.3 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2 -3.4 +0.1 -+0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.1 -0 4 +0.6 +0.1 +0.3 -1.7 -1.2 +0.5 -1.7 +0.8 +0.9 +1.5 May June July Aug. Sept. (Iet. p - Preliminary Reserve Requiremtets on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning OctAber 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. NOTE reported data. 1/ Crowth rntee are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous lonth Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes. 2/ Series revised to incorporate new seasonal factors and June 30. 1973, benchmark adjustments Appendix Table II RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars) CONFIDENCIAL (FR) November 16, 1973 -I-------------- I I I"" RESERVES __ I Available to NonSupport Pvt. MONEY STOYK )EA ITalS BANK CREDIT MEASURES -MONEYST rK MASURESY Total Loans and Investments (9) Total Time (10) I 1OTHER_ Time Other than Thrift Institution NonDeposits _runa (14) U.S. Gov't d-K. Di.j a nu , I (6) (7) Adjusted Credit Proxy (8) 162.7 172.2 183.4 392.3 425.2 473,8 594.0 641.3 727.7 307. 7 332.9 364.3 405.6 438.5 487.6 194.4 229.2 270.9 183.5 203.9 237.9 201.7 216.1 253.8 10.9 25.3 33.0 247.7 248.6 250.1 193.1 193.8 194.8 504.5 508.4 512.1 784.0 791.6 799.0 388.3 391.4 394.5 525.1 531.4 537.7 295.0 298.9 301.9 256.8 259.8 262.0 279.6 283.2 286.9 38.3 39.1 39.8 30,973 29,496 28,862 251.6 252.7 255.5 195.9 196.5 198.7 516.6 519.8 525.1 807.0 813.6 822.0 398.4 401.9 406.4 542. 552.4 559.0 304.8 308.4 312.8 264.8 267.1 269.6 290.6 293.8 296.9 40.0 41.2 43.2 6.3 6.9 6.5 30,848 29,787 29,526 29,411 29,296 29,622 255. 4 256.7 256.6 198.4 199.3 198.7 527.9 530.5 532.6 828.7 834.9 839.7 409.2 414.8 421.6 567.3 578.5 586.8 316.9 322.6 330.9 272.5 273.8 276.0 300.8 304.4 307.0 44.4 48.8 54.9 7.1 7.2 7.5 ,T.Jne 32,326 32,445 32,460 30,167 30,195 30,800 29,860 30,095 30,511 258.2 260.5 263.2 199.5 201.6 203.9 536.2 540.6 545.3 845.6 852.0 859.4 426.2 430.5 434.5 593.2 601.4 6 05.5 336.7 341.8 344.1 278.0 280.1 282.0 309.4 311.4 314.2 58.7 61.7 62.0 5.8 4.6 5.1 Ju ly 33,569 32,332 264.3 263. 9 263.4 264.4 547.6 31,996 32.604 33,536 31.324 31,961 32,311 32,736 204.9 33,898 34.145 34,955 204.2 203. 3 204.1 550.5 552.3 557.3 863,5 866.5 86R8 875.6 437.7 443.9 445.9 446.6 612.2 620.7 622.8 347.7 353.6 355.6 356.3 283.3 286.6 288.9 292.9 315.9 315.9 316.6 318.3 64.5 67.0 66.8 63.4 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.6 33,501 32,578 33,849 33,808 32.126 31,647 32,853 32,311 31,113 30,383 31,350 31,567 264.5 264.5 264.8 263.6 205.0 205.0 205.3 204.2 547.4 546.8 548.0 547.0 438.3 436.7 437.0 437.7 346.1 346.3 367.6 348.7 283.0 282.4 283.2 283.4 63.1 63.9 64.4 65.4 5.4 3.1 2.5 3.3 439.4 441.5 445.1 444.9 443.2 350.2 351.7 353.2 356.6 354.9 284.6 285.5 285.9 287.2 287.3 65.5 66.2 67.3 67.4 67.6 3.5 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.4 445.2 446.7 446.6 444.7 355.5 355.3 356.2 356.0 288.6 288.2 288.3 289.4 66.8 67.1 67.9 66.5 4.4 5.5 5.0 5.1 447. 7 446.1 448.3 445.0 446 .2 /.&&_ f A&.,T 6. 6 355.3 290.4 291.5 292.5 293.3 295.4 i9 I Per iod i 1 l. rvD. (4) TotaL (1) oorrowe (2) 27,959 29,121 31,209 26,699 28,727 31,060 25,339 26.975 28,907 208.8 221.3 236.0 33,171 33,381 33,327 33,018 33,038 32,870 30,317 30,562 30,890 Oct. Nov. Dec. 33,832 31,883 31,309 33,295 31,297 30,063 1973--.Tani. Feb. Mar. 32,242 31,649 31,999 Uep ons (3) ue. o 3 . . I s (11) . . - uepos1ts -(12) 'TE u (13) (15) A rlfALLY; Dec. 1969 Dec. 1970 Dec. 1971 20.0 11.6 4.0 5.3 6.5 6.1 MONTHLY: 1972--.Tly At R . Sept. Apr. My Sept. Oct. p WEEKI,Y: 1973--JT ly 11 18 25 Aug. 1 8 15 22 29 34,1633,577 33,961 33,743 34.142 32,578 31 709 3, 264 31,829 31,761 32,248 31,696 32,010 31,695 32,200 263.8 263.6 264.4 264.9 263.0 204.5 203.7 204.8 205.2 203.3 548.4 549.1 550.3 552.1 550.2 Sept. 5 12 19I 26 34,362 33,562 36,046 34,385 32,800 32,307 32,562 32,542 32,665 31,917 32,186 32,372 263.8 263.9 263.6 261.7 203.7 203.9 203.5 201.7 552.4 552.1 551.9 551.2 3 10 17 24 p 31 p 7, 34,644 34. 876 34,867 35,168 35,041 34_605 33,224 33,438 33,672 33,479 33,743 I 3_ 1R2 I 32,674 32,809 32,524 32,883 32,756 12.6 2 264.6 263.6 265.6 262.8 265.0 ,66t 204.6 203.0 205.2 202.3 205.0 2015.9 555.1 555.1 558.0 556.1 560.4 i561.5 Oct. I .. . . i 626.3 . 355.4 355.6 356.5 358.0 .96 . 7 : .............. 1 a 64.9 .............. ... :...... :......... :: 63.9 63.1 63.3 62.5 si1.6 5.2 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.9 7.5 6.8 nva, 1at . p - Preliminary NOTIE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 197C. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper, and Eurodollar Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. borrowings of U.S. banks. total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. Weekly data are not available for M, are for last day of month. 1/ Estimated mho hly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data. minor chanes. ?/ Sertes revised to incorporate new seasonal factors and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustments. iata are prellminAr: and may be subject to I n - APPENDIX TABLE III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) M2 1971 I M Q M Q 8.9 6.3 17.1 13.7 18.0 14.8 11.2 12.1 14.8 14.1 16.3 4.1 7.1 6.0 8.2 8.9 10.6 IV 1.9 2.2 8.7 7.4 10.5 9.6 I 9.2 5.3 12.7 11.1 14.9 13.2 6.1 8.4 8.5 10.0 10.7 12.1 III 8.2 8.0 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.2 IV 8.6 7.1 10.2 9.5 11.5 11.4 I 1.7 4.7 5.7 7.7 8.6 10.0 II 10.3 6.9 9.5 7.8 9.4 8.5 5.1 5.1 7.0 4.4 6.5 III II 1973 Q 11.1 II 1972 M 0.3 III I _ 1 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. S= Annual rates <alculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. 

Federal Reserve (1973, November 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19731120

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19731120,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1973},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19731120},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}