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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) July 13, 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL July 11, 1973 (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Around the end of June incoming deposit data began to indicate that RPD and the narrowly defined money supply were growing at annual rates in excess of the upper limits of the Committee's June-July At the same time the rate of expansio in ranges of tolerance. to be close to its upper limit. M2 appeared M2 moved ahead less rapidly than M1 because growth in other time and savings deposits fell somewhat short of expectations. Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD in June-July Target Period Ranges of Tolerance Latest Estimates Reserve and Monetary Aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) RPD 13-1/2 8--11-1/2 M 1 M2 5--8 8 5--8 Statement Memo: week avg. Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum) As adopted and subsequently amended 8-3/4--9-3/4 7/4 10.21 7/11 9.52 With monetary aggregates generally at or above the top of (2) the target ranges, posture. the Account Manager moved to a more restrictive reserve This change was expected to raise the average Federal funds rate from the 8-1/2 per cent level that had been prevailing to the 9-1/4 per cent ceiling adopted by the Committee at its June meeting. At the same time, however, seasonal movements in technical factors were absorbing a large volume of reserves and commercial banks were seeking to adjust their reserve positions in light of the Friday, June 29 statement date and the Wednesday, July 4 holiday. Member bank borrowing at the Federal Reserve ballooned to $4 billion and $2.9 billion on July 2 and 3, respectively, and the effective rate on Federal funds rose to 10 and 13 per cent on these days. Money market psychology was also being affected in this period by the June 29 actions of the Federal Reserve raising the discount rate and reserve requirements on demand deposits. whole, For the July 4 statement week as a member bank borrowing averaged $2.4 billion and the Federal funds rate 10.21 per cent. (3) Following the increased tightness of the July 4 holiday week, borrowings dropped sharply and the Federal funds rate fell back. On Friday, July 6, with growth in the monetary aggregates showing no tendency to recede, Committee members agreed to raise the ceiling on the Federal funds rate to 9-3/4 per cent. Under this additional leeway, the Desk pursued a tighter reserve management policy in the expectation that Federal funds would trade around 9-1/2 per cent. In the statement week -3- ending July 11, the funds rate actually averaged 9.52 per cent. evidence subsequently became available that the overshoot in M1 widening, the Desk adjusted reserve strategy again, When was expecting the funds rate to average close to the new 9-3/4 per cent ceiling. (4) Early in actions of late June, in the inter-meeting period, before the System policy short-term interest rates had begun to rise anticipation of some further policy tightening. the most pronounced advance, partly Bank CD rates showed reflecting bank efforts to recoup the large CD run-offs that had developed over the quarterly tax date. When the System's policy actions proved to be more aggressive than generally anticipated, short-term rates jumped sharply. Over the full inter-meeting period interest rates on private short-term instruments--including the bank prime rate--have risen generally 75--100 basis points. bill rates reached a peak early in 8 per cent, July, with the 3-month issue at about or about 5/8 of a percentage point above levels prevailing at the time of the last meeting. bill Treasury rate was (5) Most recently, however, the 3-month Treasury quoted 7.78 per cent. Long-term interest rates also had been moving up prior to the late-June policy actions and rose considerably further in the inter-meeting period as a whole, 20--35 basis points. In early July. Over the yield advance amounted to about the mortgage market, the rate in the latest bi-weekly FNMA auction of commitments to buy FHA and VA mortgages jumped 29 basis points to 8.38 per cent, and field reports suggest that rates on newly committed funds in primary mortgage markets have risen as much as 1/2 a percentage point in some key local markets. These changes apparently reflect both cut-backs in new commitment activity by mortgage lenders concerned about further reductions in savings inflows over the months ahead and the pass-through of higher interest costs resulting from recent increases in rates paid for savings. (6) of change) The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. -5Past 3 Calendar Past 12 Past 6 Past 3 Past Years Dec. '72 Months June '73 Months June '73 Months June '73 Month June '73 over Dec. '69 over June '72 over Dec. '72 over Mar. '73 over May '73 Total reserves 8.4 7.9 7.3 5.6 0.2 Nonborrowed reserves 8.8 3.2 4.8 17.1 23.6 9.0 10.6 11.3 11.7 15.8 7.5 7.4 6.1 10.4 12.9 11.3 9.2 7.7 9.5 10.2 12.8 10.9 9.0 9.2 10.1 10.7 12.8 13.8 12.2 11.1 12.4 15.4 14.3 9.8 0.2 2.0 3.1 2.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 1.0 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term market paper (Monthly avg. change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ 2/ .9 0.1 Other than interbank and U.S. Government. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. Based on month-end figures. are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift NOTE: All ites institutions--which are either end-of-month or last-Wednesday-of-month figures. -6Prospective developments (7) Three alternative policy strategies are summarized below for Committee consideration. Alternative B incorporates a 3-3/4 per cent annual rate of growth for M1 over the second half of 1973. is This the growth rate that would be required to return to the 5-1/4 per cent longer-run target path for M1, reaffirmed at the last meeting, taking account of the overshoot in June and the second quarter (see accompanying chart). Alternative A represents a somewhat easier policy, (More detailed figures are and alternative C a somewhat tighter one. shown in the table on the following page). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Targets (3rd and 4th Qtrs. combined) M 4-3/4 3-3/4 2-3/4 M2 6-1/4 4-3/4 3-1/2 Credit proxy 9 7-1/2 6-1/2 Associated ranges for July-August RPD M 1 M2 Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) 12-1/2--14-1/2 11-1/2--13-1/2 11--13 4-1/2--6-1/2 3-3/4--5-3/4 3--5 5--7 4-1/2--6-1/2 3-1/2--5-1/2 8-1/2--10 9--10-1/2 9-1/2--11 MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 270 .' . .- 5%/4% GROWTH 260 M1 LEVEL FOR MARCH EXPECTED AT 3/19 FOMC--. -250 S 0 N 1972 i I I I II D J I I F M 1 A I I 11 I M I J J 1973 A S 0 I . N 0 -6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. Alt. B Alt. C . Adjusted Credit Proxy... Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A Alt. A Alt. 263.3 263.3 264.7 265.1 265.7 545.2 548.2 550.5 553.4 545.2 548.0 550.1 552.2 545.2 547,8 549.4 551.1 434.5 437.3 441.0 446.2 434.5 437.1 440.4 444.6 434.5 266.9 562.7 558.6 554.8 454.2 451.1 449.1 July Aug. Sept. 264.9 265.7 266.6 263.3 264.8 265.4 266.1 Dec. 269.6 266.2 B Alt. A C 436.9 440.2 444.3 Rates of Growth arters: 1973 3rd Q. 4th Q. nths: July Aug. 4.5 4.3 3.2 3.6 1.8 6.0 6.7 5.1 4.6 4.3 2.7 10.8 7.2 9.3 5.8 7.3 3.6 6.8 2.7 6.4 1.8 6.6 5.0 6.2 4.6 5.7 3.5 7.7 10.2 7.2 9.1 5.0 Tota June July Aug. Sept. Alt. A 32,450 32,497 33,967 34,174 Re serves Alt. B 32,450 33,492 33,916 34,075 Dec. 35,154 34,936 tl , I 10.8 11.5 9.6 10.1 32,768 32,555 32,419 34,797 iths: July Aug. 24.7 24.5 -1. 7 8.7 24.3 - 2.5 ,'4 30,492 31,138 31,973 32,204 32,450 33,487 33,889 34,055 9.3 -" Alt Rates of Growth irters: 1973 3rd Q. 4th Q. APD Alt. B 30,492 31,132 31,923 32,106 Alt. C Alt. A 30,492 31,128 31,896 32,086 12.1 7.0 10.8 5.6 10.5 11.5 15.6 11.2 13.9 11.1 4.2 13.0 S 1. 4.3 -7(8) In the weeks immediately ahead, the staff expects that there would be little further change in the Federal funds rate if the Committee adopts the aggregate targets specified in alternative B. The funds rate range shown for this alternative centers on the recently prevailing 9-3/4 per cent level. Under alternative A, we would expect the funds rate to decline from current levels as more reserves are provided to encourage monetary growth, and under alternative C we would expect it to rise. (9) Under all three alternatives growth in the monetary aggregates would be slower in the second half of 1973 than in half. the first Money demand is expected to moderate because of a slowing in the rate of growth of nominal GNP and because of the cumulative impact of recent sharp interest rate increases. While the timing of such demand adjustments is always uncertain, our best judgment is that a significant slowing will begin in August. For July-August combined, a 3-3/4--5-3/4 per cent annual rate of growth for M 1 is indicated under alternative B. (10) Under prevailing money market conditions, short-term rates are likely to rise somewhat further between now and the next meeting. The 3-month bill may rise into the 8--8-1/2 per cent area. However, the 3-month bill is in short market supply currently, and upward adjustment of the rate may be moderated particularly if the Treasury emphasizes long-term offerings and/or pays off a considerable portion of the maturing issues in its forthcoming mid-August refinancing. About $4-1/2 billion of publicly held securities mature at that time. The Treasury will announce terms for the refunding on July 25. It is still too early to say much about the characteristics of the offering. (11) Growth in time deposits other than large CD's is to slow considerably in the second half of the year. expected Many banks raised offering rates promptly following the increase in ceiling rates, but the spread of market rates over deposit rates remains considerably wider than in the first half of the year. With regard to the long-term certificate without ceiling, there have been a number of instances of attractive and innovative offerings. It is too soon, however, to evaluate the extent to For the which such offerings will catch on at banks and with the public. time being we have assumed that long-term certificates will make only a modest net contribution to growth in consumer-type time deposits. alternative B, a growth rate of around 6 per cent is Under expected for time deposits other than large CD's in the second half of the year. And the growth rate for M2 would be around 4-3/4 per cent. (12) The slowing in growth of demand and consumer-type time deposits will limit bank credit availability. attempt to compensate at least in Banks are expected to part through sales of large CD's. However, the high cost of these funds and expected abatement of loan demand as the economic expansion slows and bank lending terms stiffen are likely to retard growth in CD's below the second-quarter pace. alternative B, the bank credit proxy in the second half is Under expected to increase at a 7-1/2 per cent annual rate, considerably slower than in the first half. (13) Long-term rates are likely to be moving upward in response to the recent upsurge in short rates, and would probably come under additional pressure to the degree that short rates rise further. The summer calendar of corporate bond issues remains seasonally light, however, and the Treasury is over the balance of the year, likely to borrow a less than seasonal amount offset only in part by further agency offerings. In general, demand pressures on capital markets seem unlikely to be strong unless there is a sizable shift in corporate borrowing from banks to the bond market. However, the supply of investment funds is likely to be falling off--for example, for municipals, as banks come under increasing pressure and for mortgages, in reflection of smaller savings flows to depositary institutions. Of course, it market participants should come to believe in a strong Phase IV control program or the probability of vigorous fiscal action, the outlook for interest rates would be modified considerably. -10- Proposed directive (14) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which might be taken to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in section. the preceding For all three alternatives it is proposed to add a reference to Treasury financing because of the regular August refinancing to be announced late this month. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments AND THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with somewhat slower growth in monetary aggregates for] indicated appears over the months immediately ahead than [DEL: OCCURRED ON AVERAGE IN the first half of the year. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments AND THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market somewhat] slower growth in monetary aggregates conditions consistent with [DEL: over the months immediately ahead than AVERAGE IN the first half of the year. [DEL: for] indicated appears OCCURRED ON -11Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments AND THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: somewhat] SIGNIFICANTLY slower growth in monetary aggregates over the months immediately ahead than[DEL: indicated appears for] OCCURRED ON AVERAGE IN the first half of the year. CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 7/13/73 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 7,34 %1%growth for June-July r 4 M 1 A 1 M 1973 I I I jI M I ]1 J 1972 I I S I I I D M I J J I I S I D 1973 * Break in Series Actual Level of RPD After Reduction in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9, 1972 -< 1 J J CHART 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 7/13/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 270 25 250 8% growth for June-July 7/ 173) growth 4% -230 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 "255 0 600 - 580 560 5bU 8% growth for June-July 540 540 5% growth 500 -- I 1972___________________ 1972 ,-/ - 1973____ 1973 0 520 J e M J F M A M I• I J J CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 7/13/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 470 (7/11/; 450 I I TOTAL RESERVES 36 34 17/11 4 ti 72 S32 32 31 .30 1972 1973 J T M A tM J J July 4 11) 1 CHART 4 9 52 ET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS WEEKLY AVERAGES INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT WEEKLY WEEKLY AVERAGES -'9 - FHA MORTGAGES FN M A M O N D AY SMN 17 AUCTION 7 Aaa UTILITY N EW IS SU E EURO-DOLLARS 3MONTH 5 5 MUNICIPAL Aaa SWEDNESDAY GOVERNMENT BONDS 10-YrAR AVERAGES - TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH 3 - PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4 6 MONTH I I I 1971 I Il l Il 1972 ll l 11111 1973 I l l i l 1971 I 1972 I I I I I llI I I 1 1 1 1973 3 TABLE 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL --------------------JULY 13, BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) REERVES AVAILBL.E FOR S PRIVATE NONPANK DFPOSITS oER1o) - - - - -- - -----------------------19J3--JAN. FE. MAR. APR. I 1 29.411 29,296 29.622 20.860 1 I MaY I 30.492 (319132) ANNUAL PATES OF CHANGE ---------------------- 32.6*5 30.195 1 11 32*450 (33.491) 30*790 (32.258) 30.848 29t787 29.526 309167 1 19.249 19*031 19.021 18 870 1 19.118 (19,592) T76 6 7T674 7707T 7T777 189967 2.253 2,384 2.669 2970 7t842 ( 7.898 7.913) ( 2832 2.353 2.377 2465 3.119 2.350 39239 3*4531 19958 ( 2.359) I 1 1 I I I MONTHLYf 1973--JAN. FEB. MNa. APR. MaY JI)NE JILY FE KIY LEVFLS-SMTLLTONS I --------- *------------- 9 Abo 4 1 11 18 I 25 1 1 1 1 1 1 10.5 11.7 ( 1 1 4.8 8.8 5.6 -7.1. 17.1 f 13.h 9.6 9.4 15.8 11.01 ( 13.51 I 11 1 if II II 19 1 I 30.120 29.620 30.360 30.037 30.293 9 27 1 30.30 30.108 30.574 30.540 4 11 P PFI 31.00 30.262 1 9 1 1 1 9 1 1 2.9. 2.0 11.4 23.1 7.7. 9.9. 90.2. 85.*. 1 35.8 -22.1 13.3 12.3 *.4 0.2 7 51 1( 12.5) 31.3 -41.3 -10.5 26.1 1.1 23.6 2.5) 29.92 29.136 , 29,439 30.192 32.628 31.838 32.519 32.402 30.579 29.319 29.219 30.843 34.408 29.05 30.242 2'.653 29.AR4 19 I1 11 11 11 32.387 32.114 32.940 12.384 32.353 30,427 29.620 29.490 29.971 30.570 29.953 24.627 30.244 30.*65 f1 11 It If 32.485 31.862 32.612 32,415 31.012 29755 30.565 30.907 30.860 30.027 II 11 33.453 32.534 32.078 31.603 ' 23.2 -13.5 -0.6 9.5 6.2 9.6. 7.51 ( 8.51 1 I 1 9 I 33.5 1 II i t1 II 11 11 I 30.128 20.366 29.831 30.045 8.3 I II 4.7 6 13 20 I I1 1I 11 14.2 I I I 10.6 II 22.8 9 JINF-.1IULY JUtLY 11 30.155 (30.951) I. I mT03--15T OTR. NOD OTP. JUNE 29.931 o 1 1 32,242 31.649 31,999 32.326 It OTR. 2 9 16 73 10 I 1 II I H 11 if I I. MAY t :10.384 ;9.369 29.360 29.893 30.095 JUNE JULY 1972--T47 I REQUIRED RESERVES -------------------II SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I-------------------------------------------------------------------------GOV'T AND PRIVATE OTHER CD'S AND TOTAL NONGORROWED I I----------------------------II INTERBANK RESERVES I DEMAND TIME DFP NON DEP I SEAS ADJ I NON SEAS ADJ II RESPRVES - - - -- - - "- - "- - -- -- - - - -- - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - ------ '"---"" f7) (8) (6) (4) 1 (5) (31 t( ) (2) I II 1 -- - aGgREGATE RESERVES --------------------------------------------- 1973 I I 1 1 1 : 1 13.5 ( 41,3 69.8 143.5 135.3 60.2 46.2. 79.5). ( 64.5). 4.* 5.2 10.9 10.0 8.6 2.5). 5 . 19012 18.767 I 18.909 18.81 7.742 7,769 7.75 7.761 2.850 2.910 2.982 3.055 2.501 2*4'2 2*689 2*357 180971 I 18*86 19.072 18.890 19.068 7.868 7.83' 7.819 T7850 3*011 3*050 3.076 3.166 3.201 2*267 2.494 2.980 2*347 2*09 180961 18.986 19,261 19.185 7*876 7.890 7.908 7T91 3*229 39244 3,172 3,302 19T54 2*038 1,T74 19.256 19.211 7.897 7.899 3,256 3*338 2.445 2*272 ?7.8S 1.955 1it 1 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NOTEr DATA SHOWN TN PARENTAESES ARE CURRFNT PROJECTIONS. 1973 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPO RANGE OF 8 TO 11-1/2 PER CENT 1/ AT THE FOMC MEETING JUNE 19. TABLE 2 (ACTUAL PFaTOO -- -- ----- -- - - MONTMLY PFrtFNT ANNUAL 1 DJUSTED I CREOIT I PROXY - - -- - - -(31 I LEVFLS-$PTLI TON<I -----------------------1 7T--J N. FFR. Map. I A0Q. AtR. MAY JUNF JULY I I 255.4 256.7 256.6 258.2 260.5 263.3 409.2 414.8 421.6 426.2 430.5 434.5 (37.01 510.5 1 512.6 536.2 540.6 545.2 (547.9) 7.1 7.2 1 II II II 1 3.3) I I NONCDPOSIT SOURCES OF I FUNDS -- -- -- -I 316.9 322.6 330.9 336.7 341.8 344.0 1346.7) I 272.5 273.8 276.0 I 278.0 280.1 281.9 1283.11 I 4 4.4 4 8.8 4.9 5 8.7 6 1.7 6 2.0 I 4.5 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.6 ( 6.3) 16 r.IOWT4 ------------------- 11 OUARTFRL Y ll------ I 9T 107?--4TH QT7 . I 1017--1IT OTP. 2NO OTO. 10.2 5.7 9.5 1.7 I I I 12.1 I 15.0 12.2 I MONTHM(Y II 14.4 I 9.5 23.1 15.8 8.6 II 19 I, 1973--JaN. rFA. MaP. APR. I 5.9 6.1 I JIINF JULY 6.4 -0.5 I 7.5 10.7 12. I 7.01 9.8 10.2 (10.0 1 S8.0) 1 6.0) 16.4 10.7 13.1 12.1 11.1 t 7.0) II 1 9,01 1 IS.7 21.6 30.9 21.0 18.2 7.7 ( 9.5) ( 9.51 II II I JIINF- )II Y WFFWLY LFVFLS-$RTLLTON< ----------------------aPR. 4 11 1R MaY I 25 I ? 9 I I 257.5 257,5 258.9 257.0 f 1 16 1 534.1 534.1 537.9 535.6 I I I 541.2 I I 13 0 ?0 oP 263.2 263.9 262.7 I PRl 263.6 544.8 I 545.1 I 545.8 544.6 ?643. 11 426.0 '24.1 425.8 426.7 429.5 428. 430.2 430.8 431.0 538.4 538.3 541.8 5*1.R 2 306 I 9.6 8.7 9.1 1 7.7 5 .0 1 6.51 I 1 t. 1 U If 7.7 216 6 5. 334.3 335.6 337.1 337.4 6.' t 276.6 276.6 279.0 278.6 I 5 7. 5 58.1 5 8.8 I 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 I 259.4 259.5 ?61.2 23 )iNF )uNEF 12.9 5.7 II I I 547.1 546.3 438.0 436.3 t4. .- .... ..----------------------------------------......... (hTEr 0oTAa AMNUAL 433.4, 433.4 435.4 435.1 *..._** It 6.0 II1 II 3. 3.9 I I 4.5s 6.1 5. I I 1 1 342.9 343.8 343.5 344.5 I I 1 281.6 I 1.3 281.9 I 6 1.9 6 1.6 rwANGE OTMFR I 6 2.3 2.6 6 6 2.6 I 5.2 5.0 5.4 S.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7 6 345.9 II I I 2?2.6 I 22.7 I 3.1 6 3.2 5.9 6.3 ***.mmmmmmmmememmmmeme-m-mmemmemmmemmeommemmeml .-. ;owN IN PARrNTHESES ARE CUODFNT PROJErTIONS. ATFS OF 5 1.1 6 6 1.8 27B.8 279.9 280.7 281.0 281.9 281.9 5.3 3.3 11 9.3 279.0 1 I I .7 it II II It if 338.2 340.0 341.7 342.9 343.6 THAN THOSF FOR TWM -----"'- JULY 13. 1973 TIME aNO SAVINGS nEPOSITS II U.S. I I GOVT. I I OTER II 1I DEPOSITS I TOTAL I THAN CD S I C S - - - ------------ - - -- - --- " ' - --- -1 #5) I (7) (61 I I 1 II I ---- ADJUSTED) II 527.9 I -- - - MONETARY AGGREGATES CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY AND I ONEY SU PLY NaQO0w I RROA9 (MI) I (M21 -- - - -- - - - -- - I 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL PAST ARE R6UNDED TO P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED THE NEAREST HALF PERCENT. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JULY 13,1973 Table 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Open Market Operations T/ Period Bills Coupon Agency & Accept. Issues Issues (1) (2) -135 Total 3Accet. Net - (3) (4) A in reserve categories Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ RP's, 8 Member Open Market Bank Borrowing Operations (5) Other l/ Factors res. against U.q.G. available ree. 5/ and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (9) (8) (7) (6) req. ATarget available reserves (10) (11) -300 Monthly 1972 -- Dec. 450 134 14/ 596 -25 443 -839 -78 -343 1973 -- Jan. 1,336 -- -- 862 2,197 1,116 117 376 278 1,331 Feb Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 659 1,109 1,332 -506 649 196 -207 -228 -18 -14 -19 -21 209 -193 644 542 1,636 -4141 1,106 -942 -1,470 -1,085 146 1,689 1,323 1,437 -1,403 428 265 -137 66 1 -1,794 -1,723 -884 -1,392 1,037 -109 156 -74 45 -460 -1,11 75 376 66 95 Weekly 1973 -- 2 472 -- -16 1,102 467 229 -590 -110 216 9 16 23 30 409 -211 -205 &#45;&#45;&#45; --16 -41 368 877 877 45 255 -2,617 -2,838 400 535 482 -1,356 -391 330 -125 712 -267 -148 -1,018 568 345 280 -72 -307 -603 437 -589 731 June 6 13 20 27 -1,107 -198 293 590 -- --19 -229 1,955 848 -3,195 -3,412 3,37/ 3,670 -1,262 -444 -140 -2,156p 968p 951p -737 36p 228P -79p 869 1,49qp -503p -948p -77 -295p 76p -297p 69 - 3 26p 6 17p 2 21p July 4 11 18 25 464 380 &#45;&#45;&#45; 2,699 3,390 -5,490 -5,093 1, 9 3 7 p - 793p 552 p -721p -1,575p 697p May Represens cnange In yL tc 228 27 s porLLuijO LLUo I 646 c ul--pCrOu o0 cnu-o[-peL ouR I u re ucm ulo 0u1- 6 u 75p 12p 239P -829p Represents change in daily average level from preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum bf changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and otherr FR accounts. Target. change for June and July reflects the target adopted at the June 19, 1973 FOM Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that vere adopted eetifng. during the month. 9 -1,1, -40 505 200 175 375 I/ STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JULY 13, 1973 Table 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of Dollars U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Coupon Issues Bills Period Other Security Dealer Positions Municipals Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4) Member Bank Reserves Positions Borrowings at TRB ** Seasonal Total * Excess Reserves Basic Reserve Deficit 38 Other 8.New York (8) (9) 1,223 12 -5,635 -1,638 -5,720 -1,910 2,401 688 -5,243 -1,831 -7,548 -4,839 204 94 -2,828 -2,861 147 255 162 202 438 514 -2,945 -3,913 -3,835 -2,603 -2,801 -4,024 (2) 1972 -- High Low 4,291 1,916 1,585 -93 235 0 383 40 796 -133 1973 -- High Low 3,718 1,382 1,125 -96 175 0 244 55 560 -86 1972 -- Tune 2,694 205 87 266 (7) (6) (5) (1) July Aug. Sept. 2,262 2,643 4,099 97 692 170 142 114 53 166 176 174 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,887 3,696 3,510 207 1,039 953 105 84 58 132 191 291 247 314 219 574 606 1,049 -3,637 -4,561 -4,977 -4,044 -3,622 -4,958 1973 -- Jan. Feb Mar. 3,407 2,132 2,490 720 562 -50 27 77 24 177 123 125 289 207 177 1,161 1,594 1,825 -4,550 -4,187 -4,273 -5,469 -5,436 -5,847 Apr. May 2,457 1,894 106 421 12 66 60 151 255 161 -3,293 -3,019 -6,577 -5,872 June 2,281 562 33 120 2 7p 1,8 -3,507 -6,443 2 9 16 23 30 1,969 1,788 1,709 1,586 2,175 221 809 502 104 269 61 0 44 6 154 72 162 126 143 100 233 -81 363 124 166 1,875 1,484 1,814 1,689 2,401 16 18 23 32 47 -1,831 -3,275 -3,658 -2,767 -2,749 -5,401 -5,509 -5,829 -5,863 -6,437 June 6 13 20 27 2,608 2,686 *2,234 *1,709 462 551 * 641 * 622 6 100 1 30 57 130 111 183 401 2 16 0 p 212p 1,664 1,700 1,928p 1,846p 64 67 73p 93p -2,934 -4,181 -3,875 -2,932 -5,772 -6,82' -6,581 -6,541 Tuly 4 11 18 25 *2,013 *t,382 * 391 * 373 0 lOOp 133 150p 441p -65p -2,775p 2 -2,73 p 22 3 p -6 , 48 -7 ,5 p 1973 -- May lot's: 'pegthnifng 0 3 30 1,688 1,863 4 9 2 4 01 p p , 1,680p 79 p Iltp 117p Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreeGovernment Security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Other security dealer positions are debt ments tturing in 16 days or more, are Indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-terti. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Fedissues still iL syndicate, excluding trading positions. *ral funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statenent weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. averages of statedent week figures. with Tantary 1973, monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted *STtICTLY CONIIbENtE A CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JULY 13,1973 Table 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent Period Short-te rm_ 90-119 day Treasury bills Coercial 90-day -year Federal funds (2) (1) SPaper (3) (4) Aaa Utility New Recently Offered (7) (8) CD's New issue-NYC 0-89 day 90-119 day __Issue (5) (6) L___ong-term___ FNMA U.S. Government unipl (10-yr. Constant Auction Yields Bumaturity) B (10) (11) (9) 5.38 3.18 5.13 3.03 5.52 3.60 5.50 3.75 5.38 3.13 5.50 3.50 7.60 6.99 7.46 7.12 5.54 4.96 6.58 5.87 7.72 7.54 High Low 10.21 5.61 7.87 5.15 7.65 5.42 8.88 5.63 9.00 5.38 9.00 5.50 7.95 7.29 7.82 7.26 5.40 5.00 7.05 6.42 8.38 7.69 972 -- June 4.46 3.91 4.71 4.60 4.38 4.50 7.32 7.36 5.34 6.11 7. July Aug. Sept. 4.55 6.80 4.87 3.98 4.02 4.66 4.90 4.90 5.44 4.83 4.75 5.07 4.63 4.65 4.88 4.75 4.78 5.00 7.38 7.37 7.40 7.37 7.34 7.42 5.41 5.30 5.36 6.11 6.21 6.55 7.63 7.63 7.65 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.04 5.06 5.33 4.74 4.78 5.07 5.39 5.20 5.28 5.21 5.18 5.40 5.00 5.00 5.19 5.19 5.13 5.38 7.38 7.09 7.15 7.38 7.18 7.18 5.19 5.02 5.05 6.48 6.28 6.36 7.72 7.71 7.68 )73 -- Jan. Feb. Mar. 5.94 6.58 7.09 5.41 5.60 6.09 5.58 5.93 6.53 5.76 6.17 6.76 5.63 6.16 6.78 5.75 6.28 6.75 7.38 7.40 7.49 7.35 7.41 7.51 5.05 5.13 5.29 6.46 6.64 6.71 7.64 7.72 7.78 Apr. May June 7.12 7.84 8.49 6.26 6.36 7.19 6.51 6.63 7.05 7.13 7.26 8.00 7.04 7.44 7.98 6.75 7.41 8.13 7.48 7.51 7.64 7.48 7.50 7.64 5.15 5.15 5.18 6.67 6.85 6.90 7.89 7.96 8.07 2 9 16 23 30 7.43 7.60 7.81 8.06 7.95 6.24 6.10 6.15 6.44 6.74 6.57 6.52 6.47 6.68 6.86 7.13 7.13 7.18 7.33 7.44 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.38 7.38 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.50 7.50 7.40 5.10 5.10 5.14 5.20 5.22 6.75 6.81 6.85 6.91 6.94 7.92 7.45 7.61 7.55 7.42 7.45 7.50 7.55 7.60 June 6 13 20 27 8.43 8.17 8.55 8.59 7.03 7.09 7.22 7.24 6.95 6.93 6.98 7.14 7.68 7.88 8.03 8.18 7.75 7.88 8.00 8.30 7.88 8.00 8.13 8.50 7.63 7.59 7.66 7.73 7.59 7.60 7.69 7.72 10.21 9.52 7.69 7.87 7.62 7.65 8.56 8.88 8.63 9.00 8.75 9.00 7.95p 7.80 7.82p 5.13 5.13 5.19 5.25 5.34 5.40 6.92 6.86 6.89 6.93 7.02 7 .05p 972 -- High Low 973 -- )73 -- May July 4 11 18 25 S_ tea: L I ---- I . 1 7.96 8.00 8. 8.09 8.38 IA Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7, 8 and 10 the Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Colamn 11 gives FNM auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the yield in the bi-veekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Appendix Table I CONFIDENTIAL (FR) RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES July 13, 1973 Perlod -I Total (11 I onborrwed (2) I Monev Stock Me .auree I hank Credit Meae.,re Maue IBak1Masrs 1k I Reaervea 1 Support Pvt. epoite (3) M (4) M2 1 (5) 3 | (6) Credit Proxy (7) Loans and Tnvestmenta (8) ther I Total Otner than Institution Time CD's Deposit (9) I (10) [ (11) (For Cent Annual Rates of Crcuth) Nondepoet Cov't. CD'e Funds Demand (12) I (13) I (14) (Dollar Change in Billions) -- L- Annually1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 +5 3 -2 8 +9 6 +8.1 +7,1 +8.1 -1.7 +8.6 +7.2 +9.7 17 P 413 +6 C *6 09.3 +9.3 +2.6 +8.4 +11.6 +10.8 +8.3 +2.9 +8.0 +13.5 +13.0 +9.5 +0.4 +8.2 +9.4 +11.6 +11.0 +3.9 +8.1 +11.3 +14.6 +11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5 +11.2 +1.6 +11.1 +16.7 +13.3 +6.. +3.5 +7.7 +17.5 +16.R +2.9 -12.4 +14.4 +7.7 +10.1 +2.6 +13.0 -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 +14.9 +7.64 +16.4 +9.8 +10.1 +8.6 +11.5 +10.6 +21.6 +13.4 +20.0 +12.1 +19.6 +16.0 +4.3 +3.4 -7.1 -0.4 +10.8 +10.3 +13.0 +12.1 +11.4 +11.1 +12.8 +15.5 +15.4 +14.5 +13.7 +12.1 +17.3 +15 0 +4.4 +5.7 -0.3 +0.6 +0.4 +13.8 +14.3 +19.9 +9.1 +11.0 +18.9 +1.2 -1.4 +6.7 +9.8 +9.7 +11.1 +9.8 +16.6 +8.0 +15.9 +14.2 +13.3 +1.7 +1.8 -0.4 +1.1 +11.0 +11.5 +9.8 +12.1 415.7 +15.6 +14.8 +14.0 +14.4 +16.1 +10,8 +12.3 +11.6 +19. +14.3 +16.2 +13.2 +0.8 +3.7 +2.4 +3.3 -0.3 +0.4 +0.3 -0.4 +0.5 -1.1 +1.4 +15.0 +12.2 +1*.4 4 +9.8 +23.1 +15.8 +9.5 48.6 +13.6 +9.0 +11.7 +7.1 +0.5 +0.7 +0.9 -2.2 +14.2 +12.4 +19.9 +5.4 +20.0 +2.3 +9.0 +17.9 +14.4 +10.7 +21.2 +16.7 +15.4 +20.3 +18.7 +-4.4 +22.6 +0.2 +17.7 +16.2 +11.6 +17.8 +18.2 +12.9 +13.6 +15.9 +12.0 +11.5 +14.2 +17.1 +15.7 +21.6 +30.9 +21.0 +18.2 +7.7 +19.2 +15.4 +13.2 +7.8 +13.0 +23.3 +16.6 +18.2 +13.4 +21.6 +16.9 +16.7 +14.9 +16.3 +14.5 +12.3 +11.5 +19.4 +9.1 +11.7 +6.4 +9.3 +10.0 +0.1 40.6 +0.1 +1.5 +1.5 +0.7 +0.8 +0.8 +0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9 +1.2 44.5 +6.1 +3.8 +3.1 +0.3 -0.1 -0.3 40.1 -0.2 +0.2 -0.6 +0.5 +1.1 -0.3 +0.4 Semi-Annually let Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 +9.6 +6 3 +10.7 +3.6 +10. 4+30 1st Half 1972 2nd Helf 1972 +12 1 +2 0 +8.6 +10.4 07 +4.8 +11.3 +6.1 +7.7 3rd Qtr. 1971 6th Qtt. 1971 +6.6 +6.0 +3.2 +3.6 14. 1 *1 9 +6.0 +8.7 +8.9 +10.5 Ist Qtt. 1972 2nd Qtr. 1972 3rd Qtr. 1972 &thQtr. 1972 +10 7 +13 1 -0 8 +4.8 +1D.4 +6.6 +9.Q +10.6 19 7 +6. -8.2 10.6 +12.7 +8.5 +10.3 +10.2 +14.9 +10.7 +12.4 +11.5 1st Qtr. 1973 2ndlQtr. 1973 -7,1 +17 1 +10. +11.7 +1.7 410 4 +5.7 +9.5 Jan. Feb Rar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oet. Rev. Dec. +26,7 -5.7 +11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2 9 +0.7 -6.1 +15.5 +9.8 -10,9 +11.0 +6 5 +13.4 +6 8 +3.9 +9.0 +6.9 +9.7 +12.9 +3.2 +20.8 +7.7 +1.0 +14.7 +11.5 48.0 +4.0 +6.4 +12.7 +4.4 +7.2 +7.2 +5.2 +13.3 +10.4 +15.1 +12.4 +7.9 +8.3 +9.2 +12.5 +9.3 +8.7 +10.1 +7.9 +12.2 +13.2 416.8 414.2 410.7 410.1 +11.1 +13.9 +11.6 +11.2 +12.0 + 9.8 412.6 +9.2 +7.2 +16.2 +12.2 +15.6 +6.6 +10.0 +9.6 +9.5 +11.9 +10.5 +13.4 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jtune p +31.3 -41.3 -10.5 +26.1 +1.1 +23.6 +22.8 -4.7 +13.4 +9.6 +9.4 +15.8 -0.5 +6.1 -0.5 +7.5 +10.7 +12.9 +6.4 +5.9 +4.7 +8.1 +9.8 +10.2 +9.8 +9.0 +6.9 +8.3 +9.1 +10.1 +8.3 +16.4 +19.7 +13.1 +12.1 +11.1 lst Half 1973 7 f8.5 +9.0 -1.4 Quarterly- 1972: 1973: Reserve rqulirementn GOtober 1. 1970. p - Prelilinary. rNTE: +R.6 +9.2 on Eurodollar borrowinge are included beginning October 16, 1969, +9.5 +13.9 +16.4 +11.4 +12.3 +14.0 +10.2 +12.8 +10.4 +11.2 +12.9 45.7 49.6 +8.7 +9.1 +7.7 40.3 -0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 40.2 and requirements on bank-related eeeaeretal paper are included beginning +0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +0.7 -1.3 -1.0 -0.7 +0.6 +1.2 +0.6 -0.4 40.6 44.1 4+0.3 -1.7 -1.2 +0.5 COFIDENTIAL (FR) July 13, 1973 Appendix Table II RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES of dollar) (Seasonally adjusted, billions ------- -- DRceFSc ...... Total ( ) - .. Tonborrowed (23 urwv Crrr r J Available to Support Pvt. Deposits Total (3) (4) M.Ac rr .1 I- H 1. Pvt. tep. (I) .(6) . . . ... 1 (7) ANV frnEITT utPASITmm f ... ............. _ Total Adjusted Credit Loans and Proxy . d-. .. Investments (8) (9) Total - Time , . (10) ((THE _ - (11) Thrift TIltitution Deposite i-~ (12) (13) Time Other than CD's n' a O.. NonDeposits .,p a I . (14) U.S. Gov't nh-man Annualv:y Dec. 1969 Dec. 1970 27.959 29,121 31,209 26,699 28,727 31,060 25,339 26,975 28,907 208.8 221.3 236.0 162.7 172.2 183.4 392.3 425.2 473.8 594.0 641.3 727.7 307.7 332.9 364.3 406.0 438.9 488.6 194.4 229.2 270.9 183.5 203.9 237.9 201.7 215.1 253.8 10.9 25.3 33.0 20.0 11.6 4.0 31,776 31,639 32,021 31,751 31,601 31,891 2<1,172 29,329 29,656 236.2 239.1 241.4 183.3 Mar. 185.8 187.7 477.9) 483.9 488.9 731. 7 746.0 754.8 367.1 369.3 374.3 494.6 499.5 507.8 274.9 278.6 281.3 261.7 244.8 247.5 257.8 262.1 265.9 33.2 33.7 33.8 4.0 3.6 3.7 Apr. May Jllune 32.612 32,852 33,027 37,467 32,720 32,938 29,824 29,920 30,144 243.0 243.8 245.1 189.1 189.6 190.7 492.1 495.5 499.3 761.5 767.9 775.0 378.1 383.0 385.1 510.1 518.6 519.8 284.3 288.6 291.7 249.1 251.8 254.2 269.4 272.4 275.7 35.2 36.8 37.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 July Aug. Sept. 33,171 33,381 33.327 33,018 33.038 32,870 30,317 30,562 30,890 247.7 248.6 250.1 193.1 193.8 194.8 504.5 508.4 512.1 784.0 791.6 799.0 388.3 391.4 394.5 523.7 521.5 537.9 295.0 298.9 301.9 256.8 259.8 262.0 279..6 283.2 286.9 38.3 39.1 39.8 3.9 4.2 4.1 Dec. 1971 Mon thhy 1 97 2--.tnn. Feb. Oct. Nnv. 33,832 31,883 flee. 31,309 33.295 31,297 30,063 30.973 29,496 28,862 251.6 252.7 255.5 195.9 196.5 198.7 516.4 519.8 525.1 807.0 813.6 822.0 398.4 401.9 406.4 542.7 552.3 560.0 304.8 308.4 312.8 264.8 267.1 269.6 290.6 293.8 296.9 40.0 41.2 43.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 1973--leo. 32,2.62 31,649 31,999 30,.848 29,787 29,526 29, 11 29,296 29,622 255.4 256.7 256.6 19A.6 199.3 199.7 527.9 530.5 532.6 828.7 834.9 839.1 409.2 414.8 421.6 567.2 576.8 585.8 316.9 322.6 330.9 272.5 273.8 276.0 300.8 304.4 307.0 44.4 48.8 54.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 Apr. 32,326 258.2 260.5 263.3 536.2 540.6 565.2 426. 2 430,5 434.5 588.9 600.0 600.1 336. 7 341.8 344.0 278.0 280.1 281.9 309.4 311.3 313.8 58.7 61.7 62.0 5,4 32,450 29,860 30,095 30,492 845.5 32.445 30,167 30,195 30, 790 199.5 May 32,628 31,838 32,519 32,402 30.579 29.319 29,219 30,843 30,128 29,366 29,831 30,045 257.5 257.5 258.9 257.0 ;99. 198.9 57.7 59.0 58.1 58.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 32.387 32,114 32,940 32,384 32,353 30,427 29,620 29,490 29,971 30,570 30,120 29,620 30,360 30,037 30,293 259.4 259.5 261.2 260.6 260.8 59.3 61.1 61.8 62.3 62.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.7 27 p 32,485 31,862 32,612 32,415 31,012 29,755 30,565 30,907 30,530 30,108 30,574 30,540 263.2 263.2 263.9 262.7 4 p 33,453 32,078 31,008 264.4 Weekly: 1l73--Apr. 4 11 18 25 May 2 9 16 23 30 June .July 6 13."p 20 p 201,6 203.9 851.9 859.1 198.2 200.2 198.2 534.1 534.1 537.9 535.6 426.0 624.1 425,8 426.7 334.3 335.6 337.1 337.4 276.6 276.6 279.0 278.6 200.2 202.3 201.6 201.8 538.6 538.3 541.2 541.2 541.8 429.5 428.4 430.2 430.8 431.0 338.2 340.0 341.7 342.9 343.6 279.0 278.8 279.9 280.7 281.0 '03.9 203.8 704.5 203.5 544.8 545.1 565.8 433.5 433.4 435,4 435.0 342.9 363.8 343.5 281.6 281.9 281.9 344.5 205.0 547.1 345.7 544.6 :::::;::::::::: 438.0 : i ii!: .! ::::::::::::::::I::::i .::::::::: : ::.:... .. : .................... :::::::: :::::::: : : :: ::::::::::::::::::: :::::::;:::::::: :. .. ...... : .. .. .......... 5.1 5.6 .............. 61.3 5.5 281.9 61.9 61.6 62.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 282.6 63.1 5.9 1: ... :: .. Il. ---- . ...-.. ..... .---- p - Preliminary NOTE: Reserve requirements - ~i~L-- on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, t--i-----"i-iII . . .-. ***-*----. -- - *--______ 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper, and Euro-dollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for non-bank commercial paper figures which institution deposits. are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M3, total loans and investments and thrift 

Federal Reserve (1973, July 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19730717

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19730717,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1973},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19730717},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}