Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) September 15, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) September 15, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) In recent weeks, credit markets have been in a highly sensitive state, while monetary and reserve aggregates have run ahead of paths indicated at the last Committee meeting. Since mid-August Treasury bill rates have risen from 60-80 basis points, and yields on longer-term Treasury and Federal agency issues have moved up as much as 35 basis points. In other markets, changes have been more moderate, with increases in short rates ranging up to 38 basis points and in long rates from 10 to 15 basis points. (2) The sharp rise in Treasury bill rates reflected the cessation of special demands associated with the Treasury's August refinancing, a shift of foreign central banks from the buy to the sell side of the market, and sales of bills in connection with the Treasury's September deficit, including sales by the Federal Reserve to offset the reserve effect of a sharp decline in the Treasury cash balance at the Fed. The influence of this large increase in bill supply was accentuated in late August and early September when the Federal funds rate broke through 5 per cent. Market expectations turned bearish, and upward rate adjustments spilled over into non-Treasury markets. (3) Soon after the last FOMC meeting, RPD growth appeared to be moving toward the high end of the 5--9 per cent range adopted by the Committee, and the Desk operated to provide reserves more cautiously. However, because credit markets proved to be so sensitive to the resulting firmer money market conditions, the Desk felt compelled to supply some reserve cushion even though -2RPD growth rose above the target range. market unsettlement. Desk operations helped to calm The average funds rate dropped to about 4.70 per cent in the statement week ending September 13, although this partly reflected a sharp drop in bank demand for excess reserves following a bulge in the week of the Labor Day holiday. Most recently, with security markets more stable, the Desk has tightened up on supplying reserves with the expectation that the Federal funds rate might move to around 5 per cent, (4) Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits now appear to be growing at about a 12 per cent annual rate for the August-September target period. Roughly 2 percentage points of the difference between 12 per cent and the 7 per cent mid-point of the target range is attributable to larger average excess reserves at banks than had been assumed in the initial projection. Most of the enlargement of excess reserves occurred during the Labor Day statement week, when precautionary member bank borrowing over the holiday period produced average excess reserves for the week totaling $838 million. About 1/2 percentage point of the difference reflects changes in the multiplier as a result of shifts in the mix of deposits. (5) Expansion of M1 and M 2 in August exceeded growth rates thought to be consistent with policy alternative B in the last Blue Book by 1/2 to 1-1/2 percentage points (after adjusting for a decrease in the July base). In the case of M 1 the annual growth rate for August was 6 per cent, as shown in attached Table 2. However, data for early September suggest that growth of M 1 will be rapid from August to September, and is thus likely to be stronger in the third quarter than thought at the last FOMC meeting. (6) The following table compares seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in major financial aggregates for recent periods with the year ending in August and with the preceding two calendar years. Most Recent two Calendar Years Dec' 7l over Past Year Aug'72 over Past 6 Months Aug'72 over Past 2 Months Aug '72 over Past Month Aug '72 over Dec'69 Aug'71 Feb'72 June'72 July'72 Total Reserves + 6.9 + 8.6 +11.3 + 6.1 + 9.3 Nonborrowed Reserves + 9.0 +10.2 + 9.2 + 1.1 + 3.8 + 8.3 + 7.2 +9.1 + 8.4 + 8.0 +6.0 + 5.5 + 8.1 +10.1 + 6.0 +13.0 + 9.6 + 9.6 + 9.7 +8.0 +11.0 +12.0 +12.0 +12.1 +10.4 + 9.3 +10.9 +12.3 +10.8 + 9.3 +12.2 +11.7 +14.3 +18.2 + 8.5 + 5.5 + 2.2 + 1.2 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (M plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (Bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks2/+10.2 Short-term market paper (Actual $ change in billions) Large CD's +22.4 Nonbank commercial 3/ 3/ 3/ + 3/ paper + 0.9+ 0.6+ o.8+ 0.3 + 3.8 / Other than interbank and U. S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 3/ Changes are based on July averages. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investment of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are either end-of-month of last Wednesday of month figures. Prospective developments (7) The ensuing paragraphs present various trade-offs between interest rates and growth in monetary and reserve aggregates. At one limit, (alternative A), we have shown an expansion in monetary aggregates that involves essentially no change between now and the first quarter of 1973 in money market conditions from those recently prevailing. At the other limit (alternative D), we have shown an M 1 path under which growth is curtailed to a 6 per cent annual rate by the first quarter of next year; this path implies a full percentage point rise in the Federal fund rate between now and the next meeting. There are a number of possibilities in between. Alternative B and C are two, and they involve both a more gradual slowing in the monetary aggregate and a more gradual tightening of money market conditions. (8) For each of the four alternatives noted above, the following table shows RPD growth rates and associated money market conditions that might be used as operating targets between now and the next meeting of the Committee. (The tables in paragraph (11) and on pp.8-9 give longer-run paths for monetary aggregates.) A single maximum likelihood estimate is shown for the Federal funds rate. reserves, At any given RPD target, the strength of demand for as well as technical market factors, will of course generate fluctuation around the funds rate shown. The Committee presumably will wish to specify a range of fluctuation to be tolerated by the Desk. -5Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D 18.7 8.9 13.9 18.7 8.4 13.6 18.6 8.1 13.4 18.3 6.3 12.5 15.9 9.8 12.9 15.7 7.8 11.8 15.1 4.2 9.7 14.5 -2.3 6.1 4-7/8 5-1/8 5-3/8 5-7/8 300-500 350-550 425-625 600-800 Growth in RPD (SAAR)September October Sept.-Oct. Growth in nonborrowed RPD (SAAR)/ September October Sept.-Oct. Federal funds rate Member bank borrowing 1/ Annual rates of growth calculated after adjusting required reserves component of the RPD series to eliminate the discontinuity from the change in reserve requirements resulting from the effectuation of Regulations D and J. (9) The changes in Regulations D and J, effective September 21, affect the multiplier relationship between reserves and deposits, and in the transition period immediately ahead makes that relationship more uncertain than usual. For one thing, the ability of banks to waive penalties on reserve deficiencies (up to $433 million initially) will affect excess reserves to an unknown degree. To the extent that these potential waivers are not used (either to run deficiencies or to reduce normal excess reserves), excess reserves will rise. 1/ We have assumed that 50 per cent is used in the first week and that use increases to 80 per cent by the end of four weeks. For another thing, the effect on required reserves resulting from Regulations D and J is particularly complicated. Though Regulations D and J together will lower required reserves for a given level of gross deposits, banks as a 1/ In our figures excess reserves, RPD, total reserves, and nonborrowed reserves have been adjusted to include the $433 million of potential waivers, since these are in effect reserves that can be utilized by the banking system. -6whole will have greater required reserves from the effect of Regulation J alone, because faster reserve crediting will reduce cash items and hence increase required reserves. 1 / But we cannot be very certain at this point as to the distribution by individual banks of the Regulation J effect on reserves and, therefore, of the effect on the reserve-deposit multiplier-particularly given a totally new reserve requirement structure to evaluate. (10) Money market conditions will also be affected by other transitional uncertainties affecting the behavior of banks themselves. The long lead time between announcement and effectuation of the new regulations and the intensive educational work undertaken by Federal Reserve officials would suggest a relatively smooth transition. may hold somewhat more excess But it is likely that banks reserves than normal for a while in adapting to the faster inflow and outflow of reserve funds under Regulation J and also in not fully adjusting immediately to the reduction in requirements under Regulation D. There may also be money market churning, and perhaps more volatility in member bank borrowings, if inflows and outflows of reserve funds differ from bank expectations in the initial stages of the new regulations. (11) Paths for the monetary aggregates consistent with the initial RPD and money market conditions shown in paragraph (8) are indexed below by rates of change (SAAR) for M1. Detailed figures for all the usual monetary aggregates, including various measures of reserves, are shown in the tables on pages 8 and 9. The disappearance of cash items on banks' books (and also of float 1/ on Fed Books) as a result of new Regulation J will also result in an upward level adjustment in measured money supply. This adjustment will be made at the time of our annual revision. The adjustment will not affect growth rates. -7Alt. 11 8 September October 3rd Q. 10-1/2 4th Q. 8 1st Q. 7-1/2 (12) A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D 11 7 11 7-3/4 11 7-1/2 10-1/2 10-1/2 7-3/4 7-1/2 7 6-3/4 6-1/2 6 10-1/2 Under alternative A, the Committee would be aiming at a constellation of reserve and money market conditions--essentially involving no change through the first quarter of '73 in money market conditions from those prevailing on average in the past few weeks--that would reduce M1 growth only modestly from the rapid 10-1/2 per cent rate expected in the third quarter. Some slowing in M 1 demand in the fourth and first quarters would be in prospect from the lagged effects of the recent rise in shortBut by the end of the first quarter, operations under alternative A term rates. would probably have set in train forces leading to quite rapid M1 growth as 1973 progresses, assuming the rate of expansion in nominal GNP remains strong. (13) The monetary aggregates under alternative B and C are con- sistent with progressive firming in reserve and money market conditions over the months ahead; however, alternative B moves in this direction more gradually than alternative C. The first stage of firming, between now and the next meeting of the Committee, would probably result in a Federal funds rate moving up to a range around 5-1/8 per cent under B and around 5-3/8 per cent under C. But the funds rate would probably need to rise in added stages Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 Alt. A Alt. B M2 Alt. C Alt. D Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt..D (Billions of Dollars) 1972 Sept. 242.8 242.8 242.8 242.8 502.9 502.9 502.9 502.9 Oct. Nov. Dec. 244.4 246.1 247.8 244.35 246.0 247.5 244.3 245.8 247.4 244.2 245.5 247.1 605.4 510.0 513.4 506.35 509.7 512.8 506.3 509.4 512.6 505.8 508.4 511.2 11.0 11.0 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth Sept. 11.0 Oct. Nov. Dec. 8.0 8.5 8.5 7.75 8.0 7.5 10.5 8.0 10.5 7.75 3rd Q. 4th Q. 11.0 11.0 11.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 10.5 7.5 10.5 7.0 10.0 8.5 11.0 11.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 10.0 8.0 Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D (Billions of Dollars) 1972 Sept. 392.3 392.3 392.3 392.3 Oct. Nov. Dec. 397.7 401.6 403.9 397.65 401.4 403.5 397.6 401.2 403.3 397,3 400.5 402.5 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 Dec. 16.5 12.0 7.0 16.5 11.5 6.5 16.0 11.0 6.5 15.5 9.5 6.0 3rd Q. 4th Q. 10.5 12.0 10.5 11.5 10.5 11.0 10.5 10.5 Sept. Oct. Nov. 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 6.0 6.5 10.0 7.5 10.0 6.5 Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns for Reserve Aggregates RPjl/ Total Reserves 1/ B Alt. Alt. Alt. A Alt. (Millions of Dollars) C D Alt. A Alt. Sept. 32,568 32,568 32,566 32,558 Oct. Nov. Dec. 31,047 31,331 31,590 31,035 31,295 31,529 31,025 31,259 31,493 30,980 31,211 31,423 B Alt. C Alt. 30,230 30,230 30,227 30,219 28,534 28,867 29,079 28,522 28,830 29,008 28,512 28,795 28,983 28,467 28,748 28,914 18.6 18.3 D 1972 (Per Cent Rate of Growth) Sept. 1.9 Oct. Nov. Dec. 26.5 8.6 9.9 3rd Q. 4th Q. 4.7 14.9 1.8 1.5 18.7 18.7 26.1 7.7 9.0 25.1 6.8 9.0 24.5 6.7 8.2 8.9 11.2 8.8 8.4 10.3 7.8 4.7 14. 1 4.7 13.7 4.6 13.0 11.9 9.5 11.9 8.7 1.9 8.1 9.3 7.8 11.9 8.3 Nonborrowed RPD 1/ Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Alt. A Alt. B 29,788 28,112 28,435 28,657 29,788 28,056 28,348 28,546 Alt. C 29,766 27,947 28,227 28,426 Alt. 29,751 27,768 28,002 28,182 Per Cent Rate of Growth Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 3rd Q. 4th Q. 15.9 9.8 11.0 9.4 15.7 7.8 9.8 8.4 15.1 4.2 9.3 7.2 8.5 7.0 7.1 Footnotes and Note appear on the following page. 8.5 D 14.5 -2.3 7.6 7.7 6.8 4.1 6.7 9.3 6.9 11.8 7.5 -9a- The dollar level of the reserve series includes $433 million of potential 1/ reserve deficiencies on which penalties can be waived for a transition period in connection with bank adaptations to revised Regulation J. 2/ For ease of analysis, annual rates of growth have been calculated after adjusting the required reserve component of the reserve series to eliminate the discontinuity from the change in reserve requirements resulting from the effectuation of Regulations D and J. The amount of adjustment for the RPD series is $815 million in September, $2,740 million in October, and $2,700 million in November. NOTE: The level of the reserve series in September and ensuing months is not comparable with previously projected figures for those months since they are now projected to reflect the impact of Regulations J and D. Rates of growth are also not comparable because we have now included the estimated impact on excess reserves of potential waivers of deficiency in connection with Regulation J. Old figures are still shown in the appendix tables. -10to around 5-3/4 and 6 per cent, respectively, under the two alternatives by mid-December, as RPD growth was further restrained to reduce M1 expansion to the annual rates shown for the first quarter in the table in paragraph (11). (14) Alternative D sets a path which is upward move of interest rates. a prompt expected to result in The funds rate, for example, would probably rise to around 6 per cent within a month and then level off. Such a rise in interest rates would permit a reduction in the growth of M1 to about a 6 per cent annual rate by the first quarter of next year. (15) The behavior of monetary aggregates other than M 1 is shown, as noted earlier, in the tables on pages 8-9. these aggregates are: Key developments affecting (a) a slowing in the growth of time deposits other than large CD's in reflection of recent rises in market interest rates and, particularly in the cases of alternatives C and D, of further rises; and (b) continued sizable demand by banks for large CD funds associated with sustained strong loan demand. (16) With respect to interest rate developments in the period before the next Committee meeting, any further increases may be quite modest if recently prevailing money market conditions were continued. Short-term rates have adjusted to a more normal relationship to the recently prevailing funds rate, and the prospective volume of new security offerings in corporate and municipal bond markets appears moderate. However, bill rates may be affected by the forthcoming monthly Treasury auction raising $600 million of new cash, by anticipations of cash borrowings in October and November, and also by increased foreign central bank selling of bills if a sizable reflow of dollars should develop. -11(17) Recent investor hesitancy and a still relatively large overhang of dealer bill positions suggest that credit market conditions remain quite sensitive to indications of change in monetary policy. A rise in the Federal funds rate to somewhat above 5 per cent, as contemplated in alternatives B or C, would very likely lead to further upward adjustments in short-term rates, with the 3-month bill rate moving up in a 4-3/4--5-1/2 per cent range. Short rate increases would be greater under alternative C than under B, and the probability of reviving expectations of a discount rate increase would also be commensurately greater. Long-term market rates would probably rise somewhat, particularly if a rising funds rate were viewed as the beginning of a more sustained tightening in monetary policy. Upward market rate adjustments would, of course, be quite sharp under alternative D. -12Prooosed directives (18) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which might be taken to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section: Alternative A "To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in[DEL: capital] CREDIT markets, [DEL: and] international developments, AND THE EFFECTS OF BANK REGULATORY CHANGES, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support [DEL: moderate] SOME MODERATION OF growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." Alternative B "To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in [DEL: capital] CREDIT markets, [DEL: and] international developments, AND THE EFFECTS OF BANK REGULATORY CHANGES, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support SOMEWHAT MORE moderate gr wth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." Alternative C "To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and] international developments, AND THE capital] CREDIT markets, [DEL: in [DEL: EFFECTS OF BANK REGULATORY CHANGES, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support MORE moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." -13Alternative D "To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in[DEL: capital] CREDIT markets, [DEL: and] international developments, AND THE EFFECTS OF BANK REGULATORY CHANGES, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support moderate growth in (19) account is monetary aggregates over the months ahead." In all four alternatives it is proposed to indicate that to be taken of "credit" rather than "capital" market developments in order more explicitly to encompass short- as well as long-term interest rates in the instruction. This is proposed on the assumption that the Committee would want the Manager to modify his operations in the event some unusual combination of factors subjects bill to undesired upward pressure. in and other interest rates In alternative D (and also to lesser extents C and B) the same language could be interpreted as calling for adapting Desk operations as necessary to facilitate orderly market adjustments to the higher interest rate levels foreseen. (20) The Committee has often interpreted an instruction to take account of "international developments" as calling for the use of operating techniques designed to minimize downward pressures on short-term interest rates. At times, however, some members have favored retaining such an instruction for other reasons, such as to avoid the inference that might be drawn from its deletion that the Committee had decided to give less weight to international considerations. this time, it If the reference is retained at presumably would be for the latter type of reason, particularly with the forthcoming IMF meeting in view. -14(21) It is proposed in all four alternatives to add "the effects of bank regulatory changes" to the list of considerations to be taken into account, in view of the uncertainties surrounding bank response to the announced revisions of Regulations D and J. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 9/15/72 CHART 1 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS 9% growth for Aug Sept 5I S I J I I I I I I I I i I i . ..... I L D M 1971 I I i I I . 1 I I M M 1972 J J 1972 I I A S CHART 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 9/15/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS // - 240 (9/13/72) 240 235 j I j .,1 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 I I 1971 1972 A I M I J J 1972 A S CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 9/15/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -400 S400 (9/13/72) h/gT I I I I I -I TOTAL RESERVES 36 34 / 32 (9/13/72) 30 i 1971 1972 A M J M J I I I J 1972 A S CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT - WEEKLY AVERAGES PER CENT INTEREST RATES Long-term WEEKLY AVERAGES 7 -9 -9 - NEW CORPORATE Aaa WEDNESDAY FHA MORTGAGES FNMA MONDAY AUCTION EURO-DOLLARS F R DISCOUNT RATE PER CENT WEEKLY 3 MONTH FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 7 7 5 - -3 -5 5 MUNICIPAL Aaa MUNICIPAL Aaa WEDNESDAY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RESERVES -A BOIOWEL) BORROWED / - !/ - 20 YEAR AVERAGES / PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER v - GOVERNMENT ODS GOVERNMENT BONDS TREASURY BILLS '-2 4 6 MONTH NET RORROWED 1 1 111 1 1971 11 1 11 11 1972 1 1 2 1'1 1 I 1971 1 1 1 L971 9l 11 1972 1 1.1 1971 1. l l lL97 1 11 1972 - STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Table 1 Bank Reserves Reserves Available for Private Nonbank Deposits Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Target and Actual Target and Actual and Associated Associated and Patterns Projected Patterns Projected (1) (2) (3) (4) Period 1972-- Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 30,365 30,467 30,618-30,820- 29,625 29,798 29,951 30,148 30,365 30,568 (30,966) 30,167 30,166 30,418-30,619' 29,347 29,890 29,775 29,788 30,166 30,267 (30,678) September 15, 1972 Required Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Time U.S. Gov't. and and Nonborrowed Private Reserves Demand Nondeposits Interbank (8) (9) (6) (7) Aggregate Reserves Total Reserves (5) 32,032 32,643 32,830 33,059 33,138 33,395 (33,400) 31,931 32,525 32,728 32,967 32,924 33,029' (32,941) 20,669 20,859 20,874 20,874 21,052 21,131 :21,361) 8,748 8,762 8,934 9,059 9,136 9,249 (9,393) 2,407 2,845 2,879 2,911 2,774 2,827 (2,434) 7.2 2.2 10.1 12.8 6.0 6.8 11.0 13.0 3.3 0.5 6.8 4.0 8.8 16.4 18.0 14.2 15.8 22.9 6.9 8.4 2.9 9.3 (--) (4.5) 13.3 22.2 7.5 8.8 -1.6 3.8 (-3.0) (0.5) 13,5 11.0 0.9 10.2 4.5 (13.0) (9.0) 13.2 1.9 23.6 16.8 10.2 14.8 (18.5) (17.0) 32,529 32,638 32,995 32,783 33,033 32,415 32,555 32,960 32,723 32,819 20,866 20,914 20,884 20,717 20,987 8,840 8,891 8,931 8,961 8,992 2,742 2,647 2,985 2,963 2,978 29,589 29,606 29,947 29,906 33,217 32,953 33,213 32,761 33,163 32,864 33,158 32,649 20,766 20,912 20,975 20,803 9,024 9,052 9,058 9,092 3,030 2,899 2,890 2,818 30,155 29,883 30,239 30,238 33,383 32,671 33,301 33,124 33,119 32,462 33,143 32,968 21,020 20,854 20,983 21,273 9,092 9,119 9,156 9,137 2,934 2,616 2,944 2,649 Annual Rates of Change 2.ar£t er : 1971--3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1972--lst Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 1972--Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Aug.-Sept. Weekly: 1972--May June 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 1/ !;!.... !.!..... .I. ::..:::: .!.!. 4.0 10.0. 5.0-9.0 4.3 4.8 ;::::::::::;:::::::; :::::::::::::^::::: ............... :::::: 7.1 / 15.6 7.0 6.2 7.9 8.6 8.0 (15.5) (12.0) ......... :..... :......... :...:.........:............ ..................... ::: 30,263 30,004 .......................... : 29,908 29,373 .................... :::: 29,605 .................... :::: 29,787 29,990 30,011 :.:::::::::: .........29,820 30,055 ......... :::.........::........ 30,187 July 5 12 19 26 30,054 30,322 ::::: 29,943 ........ ............ :::: ........... :::::: 30,449 .......... : :: ..::::::: 30,055 ... :::........ :::....... :: 30,357 30,475 Au,. 2 9 16 23 30 30,570 30,434 30,563 30,278 30,875 30,373 30,075 30,421 30, 027 30,421 33,340 33,368 33,481 33,090 33,597 33,014 33,124 33,125 32,750 33,096 21,149 21,118 21,066 21,048 21,264 9,176 9,217 9,244 9,253 9,293 2,770 2,934 2,917 2,812 2,722 31,436 30,476 30,908 30,122 33,816 32,802 32,978 32,655 21,285 21,281 9,331 9,386 2,380 2,326 Sept. 6 13 p NOTE: .. - 1..... Data shown in parentheses are current projections. U -- __ __________________ _ - - The range is centered on the 7.0 per cent rate of growth in these reserves from Aug. to Sept. thought to be consistent with growth in monetary aggregates as shown under Alternative 8 in the Bluebook of August 11, 1972. --- Annual Growth Rates consistent with alternative B 1/ 1 M. z Aug. 3.5 7.0 Sept. 7.5 8.0 LI 8.7 9.0 4.7 10.5 9.4 Credit Proxy (Adj.) Narrow Money Supply (M 1 ) Period Broad Money Supply (M2 ) Adjusted Credit Proxy (2) (3) (1) Monthly Pattern ii n Billions of Dollars 483.0 486.1 490.4 495.0 498.3 (502.9) 235.0 235.5 236.6 239.4 240.g (242.8) 1972--Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Table 2 Monetary Aggregates (Actual and current projections, seasonally adjusted) 376.3 380.9 382.4 386.3 389.3 (392.3) U.S. Govt. Deposits Total Time and Savings (4) (5) 7.4 7.4 5.3 5.3 4.6 (4.3) September 15, 1972 Time deposits other than CD's Nondeposit Sources of Funds Negotiable CD's (6) 282.8 287.0 290.9 293.7 297. 1 (300.5) 248.1 250.7 253.8 255.6 257.8 (260.2) 15.9 14.7 34.7 36.3 37.1 38.1 39.3 (40.4) 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 (4.0) Annual Percentage Rates of Change--Quarterly and Monthly 8.0 1.1 1971--4th Qtr. 9.7 1972--1st Otr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 9.3 5.3 (10.5) 13.3 8.6 (10.0) 11.3 11.1 (10.5) 14.8 15.7 (13.0) 17.1 11.8 (10.0) 1972--Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 7.7 2.6 5.6 14.2 6.0 (11.0) 7.2 7.7 10.6 11.3 8.0 (11.0) 13.5 14.7 4.7 12.2 12.4 17.8 16.3 11.6 7.8 12.6 14.8 8.5 13.9 (13.5) 10.3 (11.0) 9.3 (9.0) ::::::::::::::::::::::: I:::::::::::::::::::::::: i::::::::::::::::::::::: tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiilll Weekly Pattern in Billions of Dollars 3 10 17 24 31 234.7 234.5 236.8 235.0 236.3 484.2 484.5 487.4 486.3 488.4 379.1 378.8 381.4 381.4 382.2 285.2 286.0 286.9 287.9 288.7 249.5 250.0 250.7 251.3 252.1 35.6 36.0 36.2 36.6 36.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 June 7 14 21 28 236.6 236.6 237.3 236.1 489.3 490.0 491.5 490.7 383.2 381.6 383.7 381.3 289.5 290.7 291.2 291.9 252.7 253.4 254.2 254.6 36.8 37.3 37.0 37.3 3.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 July 5 12 19 26 238.0 240.9 239.7 239.5 493.7 495.8 495.0 495.4 384.4 384.4 386.6 388.2 293.1 292.8 293.5 294.4 255.7 255.0 255.3 255.9 37.4 37.9 38.2 38.5 3.8 3.5 4.1 4.0 Aug. 2 9 16 23 30 p 239.7 240.1 240.9 240.5 241.2 496. 2 497.2 498.6 498.4 499.8 387.5 388.2 389.8 388.7 390.1 295.1 295.6 296.5 297.6 299.0 256.5 257.0 257.7 257.9 258.6 38.6 38.6 38.8 39.7 40.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 242.5 242.2 502.0 502.1 390.9 391.9 299.4 300.2 259.5 259.9 39.8 40.3 4.0 4.1 1972--May Sept. 6 p 13 pe __ ___ 1/ _ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ ' ----'"---~ --------' -- ' pe - Partially estimated. snown in parentheses are current projectiurn. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to nearest half per cent. As shown in the Aug. 11. 1972 Bluebook. NOTES: Data STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) SEPTEMBER 15, 1972 Table 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills ______& Accept. Open Market Operations 1/ RP's 3 / Coupon Agency Net Issues Isses Daily Average Reserve Effect 21 Other 4/ A Member Open Market Bank Borrowing Factors Operations (8) Total (4) b in reserve categories available res. 5/ req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (tO) Monthly 1972 - Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. July Aug. Sept. -~-"--- 870 644 180 748 -543 -906 1,275 - 2,408 472 1,386 750 1,205 -1,205 - - 221 570 816 22 285 -2,869 2,882 842 -3,503 2,972 - 19 588 -633 91 26 - 76 - 446 - 529 - 2 9 16 23 30 - 59 - 37 735 82 -351 -316 46 -1,589 1,536 638 65 128 -1,824 1,127 6 13 20 27 -409 -331 -2,322 -2,731 - - 5 12 - 26 278 827 57 329 276 S7 -2,048 ' 14 486 -131 42 335 194 251 593 -124 192 -254 249 -272 356 1 - 180 - 36 - 53 292 155 - 98 -165 -185p 135 -298 291 -339 4 0 5p -115p -60p 4 3p -778p - - 25 232 449 89 135 - 168 387 - 505 88 123 - 158 378 -315 147 -60 614 -1,053 698 612 642 ' 691 1,687 469 201 463 -238 10 - 141 3 67 p 4 p 8 99 1, p 7 " lepresents change in the System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. Repreqents change in daily average level from preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other FR accounts. Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for August and September reflects alternative B, as shown in the August 11, 1972 bluebook. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with the mid-points of target ranges that were adopted during the month. Target available reseres 5/ STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL SEPTEMBER 15, (FR) 1972 Table 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK RESERVES Millions of Dollars U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills Other Security Dealer Positions Coupon Issues Corporate ___Bonds (1) 1971 -- High L6w 1972 -- 1971 -- 1972 -- 1972 -- (2) Member Bank Reserve Positions Municipal Excess Bonds Reserves (4) (3) Borrowings Net Free at FRB (5) Basis Reserve Deficit searves 8 New York 38 Other (7) (8) (9) 202 -988 -4,714 -1,545 -5,499 -2,569 12 380 -308 -4,623p -1,638 -4,833 -1,910 (6) 4,733 1,350 2,834 343 337 0 556 30 590 - 61 High Low *4,291 1,916 1,585 -93 247 10 316 40 835p -133 Aug. Sept. 1,858 2,481 654 1,087 35 118 105 168 198 206 804 501 -606 -295 -2,644 -3,355 -3,513 -4,159 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,263 2,417 2,544 1,521 2,462 1,761 173 201 170 246 328 251 207 263 165 360 407 107 -153 -144 50 -2,436 -3,056 -2,791 -4,258 -4,063 -4,375 Jan. Feb. Mar. 3,004 2,408 3,489 1,416 1,176 604 135 149 101 206 136 185 173 124 249 20 33 99 153 91 150 -2,667 -3,203 -3,208 -4,192 -3,072 -3,522 Apr. May June 2,612 2,792 2,694 274 675 205 46 123 87 99 134 260 136 104 204 109 119 94 27 - 15 110 -3,026 -2,625 -2,828 -3,299 -2,652 -2,864 July 2,262 97 142 166 147 202 - 55 -2,997r -2,745r Aug. 2,643 692 114 176 261 439 -17 -3,817 -2,904 5 12 19 26 2,294 2,131 2,164 2,451 -79 -93 65 194 75 134 247 112 152 182 186 143 328 223 147 79 312 227 173 172 16 4 - 26 - 93 -2,673 -3,082 -2,846 -3,230 -2,005 -3,314 -2,702 -2,075 2 2,315 686 93 98 242 363 -121 -2,736 -2,654 9 1,958 927 129 140 130 287 -157 -4,353 -2,674 16 23 2,195 *2,346 114 118 167 237 254 40 3 * 886 551 -4,375 -3,859 30 *3,801 * 347 118 240 280p 477p -197p -3,321 -2,607 -,20 - - 3 , 46 286p -3,459p -4,827p July Aug. Sept. 6 13 4 * ,223r *4,291 * * 314r 239 103 50p 204 195p 1,180 84 38 8 835p -74p p 8 1 3p 223p 4, 3p 20 27 Notes: 1A-Government security aealer trauing positJons are -d n a .4.-._ LIIII -u auUm i . VLu0 Sac L a (g uIoi h. h WcommU c ldbl*l.n. UU -----r agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. are debt issues still in sydlicate, excluding trading positions. less net Federal funds purchases. are Friday figures. The basis reserve deficit is u -... r hase yt pen uaCso Other security dealer positions excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which * STRICTLY CONIPbIENTIAL -25 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) SEPTEMBER 15, 1972 Table 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent Short-term Period Federal Funds Long-term Treasury Bills 90-day 1-year Federal Funds (1) (3) (2) Corporate C o New issue Aaa* 90-119 day Commercial Coerc Paper (4) Mnicipal Municipal Bond Buyer (5) S. Gov't (10-Yr. Constant Maturt.) Maturity) (7) (6) FNA Auction Yields (8) 1971 -- High Low 5.73 3.29 5.47 3.32 5.94 3.53 5.88 4.00 8.23 6.76 6.23 4.97 6.89 5.42 8 07 7.32 1972 -- High Low 4.90 3.18 4.72 3.03 5.39 3.60 5.00 3.75 7.42 6.86 5.54 4.99 6.55p 5.87 7.63 7.54 1971 -- Aug. Sept. 5.57 5.55 4.94 4.69 5.52 5.19 5.74 5.69 7.65 7.44 5.83 5.37 6.58 6.14 7.97 7.87 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.20 4.91 4.14 4.46 4.22 4.01 4.75 4.49 4.40 5.42 4.85 4.66 7.29 7.19 7.09 5.06 5.20 5.21 5.93 5.81 5.93 7.84 7.71 7.62 Jan Feb. Mar. 3.50 3.29 3 83 3.38 3.20 3.73 3.82 4.06 4.43 4.03 3.81 4.10 7.07 7.16 7.22 5.12 5.29 5.31 5.95 6.08 6.07 7.61 7.61 7.55 Apr. May June 4.17 4.27 4.46 3.71 3.69 3.91 4.65 4.46 4.71 4.55 4.45 4.60 7.31 7.21 7.30 5.43 5.31 5.34 6.19 6.13 6.11 7.58 7.63 7.62 July Aug. 4.55 4.80 3.98 4.02 4.90 4.90 4.83 4.75 7.32 7.24 5.41 5.30 6.11 6.21 7.62 7.63 July 5 12 19 26 4.61 4.62 4.46 4.54 4.06 4.06 3.96 3.96 5.03 4.96 4.87 4.90 4.82 4.88 4.88 4.78 7.38 7.34 7.30 7.35 5.43 5.44 5.41 5.35 6.13 6.12 6.10 6.10 Aug. 2 9 16 23 30 4.56 4.69 4.87 4.75 4.90 3.82 3.84 3.88 4.01 4.33 4.79 4.77 4.73 4.89 5.21 4.73 4.63 4.70 4.80 4.85 7.27 7.24 7.22 7.23 7.31 5.32 5.24 5.22 5.32 5.38 6.14 6.15 6.18 6.22 6.38 Sept.6 13 20 27 4.89 4.69 4.62r 4.72 5.32r 5.39 5.00 5.00 7.28 7.32p 5.39 5.38 6 1972 -- 1972 -- N te o s: Wn see y lWA a a or co l ums ta are n l sLtemenl we v k averages oL n4 UaLLy d Un uaca. o ror cotuns j duu anu 7.62 7.62 7 63 7.62 6.51r 5 .5 p me wee k Ly d uate la h L ellu-U 7.63 d L f -0 u-PO I h d ecaenua week over which data are averaged. Column 6 is a one-day quote for the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 8 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the implicit yield in weekly or hi-weekly auction for short-term forward comitments for Government underwritten mortgages. * Confidential (FR) -- This series is for internal use only. CONFIDENTIAL Appendix Table I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES 1 . Per i d Total "----- " -- '- "-------money Stock Measures 2 . 3 Available to Support Pvt. Deposits Nonborrowed Anmally M1 M M (3) (4) (5) "--'-"--'" "-------Bank Credi Measures Adjusted . Total Credit Loans and Proxy Investments 1968 1969 1970 1971 + 7 6 - 1.2 + + 6.0 7.3 + + + 8.6 2.7 8.1 7.8 -.. 1 Total Time (6) (Per Cent Annual Rates of -- Time Other than CD's ^'L Thrift 'lnstitution IDeposLts CD's Nondeposit Funds (10) (11) (12) (9) Growth) + 8.3 + 2.8 + 7.8 + 13.3 + + + + (FR) September 15, 1972 (13) (Dollar Change in 9.7 0.6 8.3 9.5 + + 16.2 + 6.4 + 3.4 + 7.7 + 17.5 - 12.6 + 14.5 + 7.9 + 13.0 8.4 7.6 + 11.3 - 4.9 + 17.9 + 17.9 + 11.1 + 1.4 + 11.0 2.8 + 2.6 Semi-Annually lst Half 1970 2nd Hlf 1970 + 0 4 I 11.6 1st Hilf 1971 2nd Hilf 1971 + + 1st H"lf 1972 9.6 4.7 + 11 6 + 3.0 + 15.2 + 5.2 +10.6 4 5 6 + 5.2 + 5.8 + 10.1 + 5.0 + 10.3 + 4.8 + 11.4 + 52 + 10.8 + 8.4 + 26.3 + 6.0 + 15.6 + 4.7 + 10.6 + 2.6 + 11.9 + - 0.7 9.1 + + 9.3 6.5 +10.9 + 4.6 + 10.0 + 2.4 + 15.5 + 6.3 + 17 0 + 8.8 + + 9.7 8.8 + 11.5 + 10.6 + 22.3 + 12.2 + 21.2 + 10.1 + 20.1 + 13.5 + + 3.9 4.1 - 7.1 0.4 + 12.1 + 9.0 + 7 4 1 3.7 - 0.3 +10.8 +10.6 + 4.3 + 4.8 410.8 + 7.1 + 11.1 + 13. 4 + 11.3 + 11.3 + 15.6 + 14.7 + 17.9 + 18.1 12.4 4.4 8.0 1 3 8.6 4 18.9 + 14.4 + 7.8 + 9.6 + 15 5 + 10.8 + 10.9 + 8.4 + 7.6 + 12.3 + 10 3 + 9.7 + 11.1 + 28.8 + 14.7 + 8.2 + 15 9 + 27.5 + 14.0 + 5.3 + 14.7 - 4.6 2.6 0.4 - 03 1.5 1.6 1.6 Quarterly 1971 1971 1971 1971 + 8.9 + 10.0 + 7.2 1 t Otr 1972 2nd Otr. 1972 + 10 1 + 12 8 + 9.5 + 9.0 + 6.0 + 6.8 + 11.0 + 13.0 Tan. Feb MIr + 10 6 + 8 6 + 7 3 + 8.1 + 11.7 + 8.4 4 8.2 4 9.0 +14.9 + 2.8 + 13.4 + 11.0 + 14.1 + 20.7 + 18.7 Apr M'v Tune 4 13 4 + 16.9 + 9.9 7 9 +11.6 + 8.7 11.3 4 + I 4.4 4.1 - + 2.8 + 22.9 V6 8 + 6. -0.8 + 10.1 + 3.2 - 2.1 + 3.6 + 5.9 + 4.8 + 0.5 + 2.6 + 9.2 + 7.4 + 15.6 + 7.0 +6 2 + 7.9 +86 + 8.0 4 4 + + + + + 3.2 12.6 11.9 7 7 2.6 5.6 14.2 + 6.0 1st 2nd 3ld 4th 1971* Qtr. Qtr. Qtr Qtr Jul, Aulg. Sept 1972" + I + 2.2 R 5 + 12.9 7.6 Oct. Nov. Dec. + 10.7 - 2.8 + 2.0 + 21.4 Jan. 4 20.2 + 23.1 Feh - - Mar Apr May June Iuly Aig. p - 7.4 3.4 5.9 + 15.8 + 22.9 S6 9 + + 84 2 9 + 9 3 1 6 + 13 3 + 22.2 + 7 5 + 8.8 -. - 1 6 + 3.8 A 9.1 + 10.6 + 4 3.7 1.1 + q.3 + 5.3 8.2 + 14.1 + 9.1 + + + + + + 15.7 + 11.8 + 14.5 + 2.6 + 1.3 + 2.3 + 1.8 - 0 1 + 3.7 + 12.8 + 14.6 + 9.1 + 28.8 + 29.7 + 26.0 + 26.0 + 28.3 + 26.5 + 23.9 + 18.5 + 22.1 + + + 1.1 0.9 0.6 - 8.5 8.8 7.7 + 7.4 + 9.7 + 13.6 + 13.2 + 15.5 + 14.8 + 16.0 4 13.6 + 11.8 + 22.5 + 12.9 + 15.8 0.2 0.7 0.8 - + + + 10.7 + 4.1 4 7.9 + 6.2 + 11.9 + 10 9 + 9.4 + 4.2 + 10.7 + + + 4.8 3.2 7.9 + 16.7 + 10.3 + 13.8 + + + 1.1 0.4 0.8 4 4.8 + 11.2 + 13.1 + 11.9 + 6.2 + 14.9 + 17.1 + 9.1 + 20.8 + 13.7 + 13.0 4 11.4 + 13.7 + + 1.1 0.5 1.2 + + 14.2 + 12.4 + 18 0 + 3.6 + 18 4 + 20.0 + + + + + + + + + + P.7 + 11 3 + 15 1 4- 11.1 + + 15.7 + 20.9 + 19.3 + 10.2 + 11.9 + 10.3 + 12.1 + 13.9 +10 7 + 15.5 + 15.2 + 12.0 + + + + + + + 10.5 75 2.9 2.9 + 6.6 + 6.2 + 7.1 + 6.5 + 10.2 + 9.1 + + + + + + + + + + 4 + + + + 15.4 16.7 13 8 10.9 9.7 11.5 13.6 + 10.4 + 8.7 + 11.0 13.4 14.3 11.6 7 2 7.7 10.6 11.3 8.0 .L ____________________ ± MNMP Reserve rpequrempmnts on PurodeolTr hnrrwingp are included beginning October 16, hbginning October 1, 1970. p - Preliminary + 17 1 + + + + + 9.9 + 5.9 + + + + + + 17 7 13.5 14 7 4.7 12 2 9.3 ___________ 7 3 + 14 8 + 16.2 + 7 8 + 12.4 + 17.8 + 16.3 + 10.2 + 18.2 I + 11 6 + 13.9 L.............J + 13.0 + 17.0 + + + + + + + 24.4 15.4 10 8 78 12 6 14.8 85 + 10.3 21.9 17.3 13.7 12.8 20.5 23.0 17 6 19 r 15.8 10.6 16 6 18.4 11.1 0.2 0.6 - 04 + 1.3 + 1 6 + 0.8 + 1 0 + 1.2 L 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included 1.9 - 1.0 + 0.4 - 0.2 0.4 + 0.1 + + 0.8 0.5 - 1.3 - 0.1 - 0.3 + - U.S. Gov't. Demand 0 1 0.2 + 0 ? + 01 + 0.3 illions) + + - 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.3 Appendix Table II CONFIDENTIAL(FR) RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, Billions of dollars) _ Reserves Money Stock Measures Time Adjusted Total Credit Loans and Proxy Investments Time (8) (9) (10) (11) 572.6 588.3 634.0 304.6 305.4 330.6 390.6 406.0 438.9 204.2 194.1 228.9 180.6 183.2 203.4 423.1 430.4 437.1 642.2 653.4 663.9 333.4 336.7 339.6 443.6 449.0 452.4 234.4 240.2 245.4 170.7 173.0 174.5 441.5 446.6 450.6 672.5 681.0 687.8 342.0 344.5 346.7 455.2 458.9 464.1 227.4 228.0 227.6 175.8 176.3 175.5 453.4 454.5 455.6 693.8 697.6 701.2 349.8 351.0 353.3 28.588 28.728 28.844 227.7 227.7 228.2 175.5 175.5 175.7 458.3 460.8 464.7 706.5 711.6 718.1 29.064 29.244 29.625 228.8 231.2 233.5 176.0 178.0 179.9 469.9 475.5 480.1 29.798 29.951 30.148 30.365 30.568 235.0 235.5 236.6 239.4 240.6 180.9 483.0 486.1 490.4 495.0 498.3 79.899 29.728 29.632 235.1 734.o 181.1 181.0 Available to Non- Support Pvt. Total borrowed Deposits (1) (L) 27.249 27.977 29.132 26.471 26.829 28.764 24.963 25.245 26.747 197.4 203.7 214.8 154.0 157.7 165.8 378.0 368.8 418.2 1971--Jan. Feb. Mar. 29.390 29.600 29.779 28.958 29.240 29.445 26.930 27.132 27.470 215.3 217.7 219.7 166.0 168.0 169.7 Apr. May June 29.991 30.327 30.527 29.859 30.106 30.106 27.735 27.935 28.199 221.2 223.8 225.5 July Aug. Sept. 30.639 30.743 31.073 29.915 29.985 30.556 28.358 28.521 28.503 Oct. Nov. Dec. 30.882 30.970 31.246 30.485 30.535 31.079 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. 31.772 31.616 32.032 31.678 31.582 31.931 Period September 15, IJ) M2 Total (4) M3 Pt. Dep. 1972 Other Bank Credit Measures Total Other than CD's Non- Thrift Deposit Institution Deposits CD's Funds U.S. Gov't Demand (14) (15) 194.6 201.5 215.8 7.0 20.0 11.6 5.1 5.3 6.4 207.8 212.7 217.4 219.2 223.0 226.8 10.1 8.6 7.0 5.8 4.9 4.0 248.1 251.3 254.4 220.3 222.8 225.0 231.0 234.4 237.2 5.1 4.1 4.5 5.6 5.4 4.3 466.5 471.1 475.4 256.4 257.3 259.6 225.9 226.5 228.0 240.4 243.1 245.6 4.3 4.1 5.1 5.7 6.6 354.7 358.0 361.9 480.1 482.6 488.6 263.3 265.3 269.9 230.6 233.1 236.4 248.3 250.8 253.4 4.8 5.4 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 727.3 364.9 737.4 745.9 366.7 372.1 494.4 499.5 507.0 274.4 278.1 279.9 241.2 244.3 246.5 257.4 261.8 265.8 4.0 3.6 3.7 6.3 3.7 6.1 752.7 758.8 766.1 774.8 781.5 376.3 380.9 382.4 386.3 389.3 508.5 516.3 516.3 520.7 528.6 282.8 287.0 290.9 293.7 297.1 248.1 250.7 253.8 255.6 257.8 269.7 272.6 275.7 279.7 283.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 7.4 7.4 5.3 5.3 4.6 781.1 2R1.7 282.9 284.0 747. 247.5 247.9 248.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 7.7 8.7 6.4 6.4 249.5 250.0 250.7 251.3 252.1 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 7.9 6.9 6.9 7.6 7.3 (5) (12) Annue. ly Dec. Dec. 1968 1969 Dec. 1970 Monthly: 32.643 32.525 32.830 32.728 33.059 32.967 33.138 32.924 33.395 33.029 Apr. May June July Aug. p 181.1 181.9 184.5 185.5 3.Q Weekly: 1972--Apr. May 5 32.655 12 37.576 19 26 32.615 32.845 32.519 127.17 32.568 32.569 70.071 234.5 235.2 3 32.529 32.638 32.995 32.783 33.033 37.415 32.555 32.960 12.723 32.819 29.787 29.990 30.011 29.820 30.055 10 17 24 31 375.8 180.4 191.q 234.7 234.5 236.8 235.0 236.3 180.6 180.1 182.3 180.5 181.8 484.2 484.5 487.4 486.3 488.4 379.1 378.8 381.4 382.2 285.2 286.0 286.9 287.9 288.7 36.5 36.6 37.3 36.1 182.0 181.9 182.6 181.3 489.3 490.0 491.5 490.7 383.2 381.6 383.7 381.3 289.5 290.7 291.2 291.9 252.7 253.4 254.2 254.6 3.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 6.9 5.1 5.6 3.3 ?75.6 375.2 376.8 381.4 June 7 14 21 28 33.217 )2.953 33.213 32.761 3.163 2.864 3.158 2.649 30.187 30.054 30.322 29.943 July 5 12 19 26 13.583 3.119 32,671 )2.462 33.301 33.143 33.124 32.968 30.449 30.055 30.357 30.475 38.0 40.9 !39.7 239.5 183.2 186.0 184.7 184.5 693.7 495.8 495.0 495.4 384.4 384.4 386.6 388.2 293.1 292.8 293.5 294.4 255.7 255.0 255.3 255.9 3.8 3.5 4.1 4.0 5.4 3.5 5.2 6.2 33.340 33.368 33.481 33.690 33.597 33014 33.124 33.125 32.750 33.096 30.570 30.434 30.563 30.278 30.875 239.7 240.1 !40.9 240.5 241.2 184.8 185.0 185.9 185.3 186.0 496.2 497.2 498.6 498.4 499.8 387.5 388.2 389.8 388.7 390.1 295.1 295.6 296.5 297.6 299.0 256.5 257.0 257.7 257.9 258.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 5.5 6.0 5.6 3.1 3.4 33.816 32.978 31.436 242.5 502.0 390.9 299.4 259.5 4.0 4.4 Aug. Sept. NOTES: 2 9 16 23 30 p 6 p 187.2 Reserve requirements on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member banks deposits subject to reserve requirements,bank-related commercial paper, and Euro-dollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. 3, p 7 482.8 482.3 482.4 483.8 - Preliminary. 

Federal Reserve (1972, September 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19720919

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19720919,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1972},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19720919},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}