Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) July 14, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) July 14, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) The rate of growth in reserves available to support private nonbank deposits has been fluctuating within the 4-1/2--8-1/2 per cent annual rate range for June-July adopted at the last Committee meeting. Estimates have been as low as 6 per cent, but most recent figures indicate a rate of growth of 8-1/2 per cent for the period, as shown in Table 1 attached. Over the three statement weeks ending July 12, RPD has been sustained by large excess reserves averaging $265 million, about $115 million more than expected. (2) With private demand deposits coming in below expectations in the latter part of June, M 1 expanded at a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate for the month, about one and a half percentage points below the rate built into the alternative B path of the last Committee meeting. In the first two statement weeks of July, however, there has apparently been a sharp pick-up in the rate of expansion, and the level of M 1 moved substantially above the path levels specified earlier. It seems possible that the late June weakness in narrowly defined money supply temporarily reflected in some part either direct or indirect effects of large outflows of dollars from the U. S. (3) Growth of M 2 from May to June--at a 10 per cent annual rate--was close to earlier anticipations. Growth in time deposits other -2than large CD's was the same as earlier projected. In early July, however, such deposits are showing somewhat more strength than anticipated. (4) The bank credit proxy in June expanded at a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate, about as projected. The outstanding level of U. S. Government deposits dropped sharply from May to June, although the average level of such deposits in June turned out to be slightly higher than expected. In recent weeks, the level of U. S. Government deposits has exceeded earlier projections by substantially larger amounts, partly reflecting the sizable volume of additional cash obtained by the Treasury through sale of special securities to foreign central banks. (5) Short-term interest rates, particularly rates on private market instruments and the bank prime rate, have drifted upward since the last Committee meeting. After reaching a recent peak of 4.14 per cent in early July, the 3-month bill, however, was most recently quoted around 3.95 per cent, little changed from the time of the previous meeting. The Federal funds rate has edged up from an area just under 4-1/2 per cent to around 4-5/8 per cent in the two statement weeks ending July 12. Meanwhile, long-term interest rates have been generally stable. (6) Recent tendencies for bill rates to decline have reflected market anticipations of large demands for bills from foreign official institutions acquiring dollars in support of foreign exchange rates. Large foreign demands falling directly on the bill market have not yet materialized, however. During the past statement week the Treasury put on $670 million of specials, and the System sold $630 million of bills -3directly to foreign account as technical factors, principally float, provided considerably more reserves than anticipated or than needed to meet reserve objectives. Foreign bill purchases in the market, coming mainly on last Thursday and Friday, amounted to only $165 million. An additional $2-3/4 billion of foreign buying is now in prospect for the first three days of next week. Some of this may be invested in Treasury specials; some may be accommodated through sales of bills from the Exchange Stabilization Fund; and some may have to be purchased in the market. (7) The following table compares seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in major financial aggregates for recent periods with the average annual rate of growth over the past two and a half years. Past 2-1/2 Years Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 2nd Q. '72 June '72 2nd Half '71 1st Half '72 over Dec. over June over June over Dec. '69 June Dec. March 8.1 4.7 11.6 12.9 10.1 6.5 12.2 13.0 8.8 4.6 9.2 7.4 6.5 2.5 7.4 5.3 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 10.7 6.3 11.1 12.1 8.8 13.3 10.7 Total member bank deposits (Bank credit proxy adj.) 10.1 8.7 11.3 11.0 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 10.9 8.7 M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit 10.6 11.3 Short-term market paper (Actual $ change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper $ 26.1 1.7 3/ 4.1 1.0 3/ 0.2 3/ Other than interbank and U. S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. Through May '72 only. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are either end-of-month or last Wednesday of month figures. -5Prospective developments (8) Patterns of monetary aggregates and money market conditions summarized below (and detailed in tables on the two following pages) reflect essentially the same alternatives presented to the FOMC at its last meeting. For the third quarter as a whole growth rates in M1 and the Federal funds rate range are identical, but there are some differences in other monetary aggregates. A C B 4--5-1/2 4-1/2--6 Federal funds rate 3-1/2--5 Member bank borrowings ($ millions) 50-250 75-450 150-650 5.3 7-1/2 5.3 6-1/2 5.3 5-1/2 10-1/2 3 8-1/2 10-1/2 2 6-1/2 10-1/2 1 5-1/2 July August 8-1/2 3 8 2 7-1/2 1/2 July-August 5-1/2 5 4 Growth in M1 (SAAR) 2nd Q. 3rd Q. July August Sept. Near-term growth in RPD (SAAR) (9) Growth in M 1 is expected to be considerably more rapid in July than in June--around a 10-1/2 per cent annual rate--in view of the apparent sharp rise of $5 billion in demand deposits in the first two weeks of the month. The size of the increase--the largest two week increase in 1/ In addition, the level of M1 attained by September is lower than presented at the previous meeting because rates of growth are linked to a June base which fell somewhat short of levels estimated earlier. Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 1972 June p/ July Aug. Sept. M2 Alt. A Alt. B 236.6 238.7 239.3 241.0 236.6 238.7 239.1 240.4 Alt. C 236.6 238.7 238.9 240.0 Alt. A 490.5 495.1 498.0 502.2 Alt. B 490.5 495.1 497.5 501.0 Alt. C 490.5 495.1 497.1 500.0 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth June July Aug. Sept. 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 4.6 10.5 3.0 8.5 5.3 7.5 4.6 10.5 2.0 6.5 4.6 10.5 1.0 5.5 10.1 11.5 7.0 10.0 8.7 9.5 5.3 6.5 Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. 1972 June p/ July Aug. Sept. A 382.3 383.9 386.3 391.6 Alt. B. Alt. 'C 382.3 383.9 386.0 390.6 382.3 383.9 385.6 389.8 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth 4.7 June July Aug. Sept. 4.7 5.0 7.5 16.5 4.7 5.0 6.5 14.5 5.0 5.3 13.1 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 11.0 9.5 11.0 8.5 11.0 8.0 p - preliminary 10.1 11.5 6.0 8.5 8.7 8.5 10.1 11.5 5.0 7.0 8.7 7.5 Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns for Reserve Aggregates RPD 1 / Total Reserves Alt. 1972 June July Aug. Sept. A 33,061 33,116 33,802 33,119 B Alt. C Alt. A 33,061 33,106 33,762 33,016 33,061 33,096 32,721 32.939 33,172 30,381 30,458 30,735 Alt. Alt. B 30,172 30,371 30,418 30,634 Alt. 30,172 30,361 30,377 30,557 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth 1/ June July Aug. Sept. 8.5 2.0 -11.5 11.5 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 12.9 0.5 8.5 1.5 -12.5 9.5 12.9 - 0.5 8.5 1.5 -13.5 8.0 8.8 8.5 3.0 11.0 8.8 8.0 2.0 8.5 8.8 7.5 0.5 7.0 12.9 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.0 7.4 5.0 - 1.5 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits. C -8the history of the series-probably reflects faulty weekly seasonal adjustments and other temporary aberrations in a period containing a mid-year statement date, a major holiday, and a somewhat larger than normal amount of Treasury checks paid after the end of the fiscal year. We have projected a con- siderable lowering in the average level of demand deposits in the latter part of the month. A return to more normal conditions, and given the reserve paths specified for the various alternatives, would lead to a more moderate rate of M 1 growth over the balance of the quarter. (10) With respect to money and short-term market conditions, the staff's best current estimate is that the Federal funds rate will need to move up from the recent 4-1/2--4-5/8 per cent range--given rising transaction demands for cash associated with expansion in GNP--in attaining the reserve path and aggregates of alternatives B or C, with a more pronounced rise likely under alternative C. However, bill rates may not increase much, and under some circumstances could decline, over the next few weeks. The Government's near-term cash needs remain relatively small. Moreover, the recent pattern of dollar outflows, if continued, will increase potential foreign demand for bills. Between now and the next meeting of the Committee a 3-month bill rate in a 3-3/4--4-1/2 per cent range might be anticipated under conditions of alternative B, assuming the funds rate in that alternative does not move much, if any, above 4-3/4 per cent. (11) The Treasury will announce on July 26 terms on which they will refund $2.3 billion of publicly held obligations maturing in mid-August and probably also $1.8 billion of September maturities. Because Treasury cash -9has been buttressed by recent sales of special issues to foreign official accounts, it is not clear that they would have to raise much, if any, new cash at the time of the August refunding. While our staff estimates still indicate a somewhat less comfortable position than do Treasury estimates, the new cash that our estimates suggest will be needed by the end of August might be obtained through further issuance of special securities to foreigners. In the refunding, the Treasury might well choose to offer intermediate- and longer-term securities in view of the relatively calm state of capital markets. If the Treasury does emphasize such offerings, this would be likely to moderate the usual seasonal upward pressures on short-term markets, particularly if there is no sizable announced bill (12) offering for cash. In the absence to date of substantial upward pressures on short-term market rates, net inflows of time deposits other than large CD's have remained relatively strong. It does appear from early figures for July that the rate of expansion in the current month will drop somewhat from the advanced June pace, but not by as much as we had earlier expected. Thus, we have revised up our estimate of growth in such time deposits for the third quarter, with the result that projections of M 2 growth for that quarter are somewhat stronger than at the time of the last meeting. (13) Growth in the bank credit proxy is projected to remain relatively low from June to July. Thereafter, the rate of expansion is expected to accelerate as the outstanding level of U. S. Government deposits rises. Sizable further sales of special issues to foreigners in the weeks immediately ahead, however, could of course alter this projected pattern of U. S. Government deposits and the credit proxy. -10(14) Bank business loans, following what appears to be a transitory drop in June, are expected to resume their rise in the months ahead in view of the continued substantial increase projected for economic activity, and for inventory accumulation in particular. If loan demands strengthen as expected, and assuming bank sources of funds become more costly and show only moderate growth (as is most likely under alternative C), banks would probably become more reluctant buyers of longer-term issues of securities. At the same time, demands for credit in bond markets are expected to remain around recent levels over the next few months. Thus, it would appear that bond markets will be under some upward interest rate pressure unless there is a favorable shift in expectations. However, such upward pressures may not develop over the weeks ahead if bill rates remain around current levels. And over the longer run, the still wide spread of long over short rates seems to permit scope for a rise in short rates without significant effects on long markets. (15) In the fourth quarter, assuming an M 1 growth of around 6 per cent, short- and long-term interest rate increases are likely to be more pronounced since Treasury cash borrowing is expected to rise much more than seasonally at that time. Also, demand for money for transactions purposes is likely to remain strong in the fourth quarter if growth in nominal GNP accelerates somewhat further, as projected, from the current 10 per cent pace. On the other hand, aggregate money demand is likely to be moderated to some degree by the lagged effects of interest rate increases over recent months and in prospect. -11Proposed directive (16) Three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive are presented below. They might be associated with the correspondingly lettered patterns of growth in the aggregates described in the preceding section. (17) Alternative A. "To implement this policy, while taking account of possible] THE FORTHCOMING Treasury financing, developments [DEL: in capital markets, and international developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support [DEL: moderate] SOMEWHAT FASTER growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." (18) Alternative B. "To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: possible] THE FORTHCOMING Treasury financing, developments in capital markets, and international developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." (19) Alternative C. "To implement this policy, while taking account of possible] THE FORTHCOMING Treasury financing, developments in [DEL: capital markets, and international developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that moderate] SOMEWHAT SLOWER growth in monetary aggregates will support [DEL: over the months ahead." -12(20) In all three alternatives it is proposed to retain the instruction to take account of both capital market and international developments (as well as Treasury financing) for essentially the same purposes as they serve in the current directive. In particular, the reference to international developments can be interpreted as calling for minimizing downward pressures on bill rates to the extent consistent with the specifications for reserves and monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate constraint desired by the Committee. CHART 1 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 7/14/72 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -133 -31 - 29 -27 >, I I I I i M I I J 1971 I I S I I 0 I I J M 1972 S M -19 I I A M 1972 J J CHART 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 7/14/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I/ I I I BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 -540 1972 I I I 1971 F M .I i 1 M A 1972 J J CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 7/14/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -400 (7,12/72) : h -3 1 i I i 1 4 TOTAL RESERVES 1971 1972 F M A 1972 M J J CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES Short-term WEEKLY AVERAGES 1970 1971 1972 1970 1971 1972 1970 1971 1972 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Table 1 Bank Reserves Reserves Available for Private Nonbank Deposits Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Actual Target and Actual Target and and and Associated Associated Patterns Projected Patterns Projected Period (2) 1972--Mar. Apr. May June July 29,625 29,798 29,952 30,172 (30,371) 29,965 30,153 in, in-30,3901 / (4) 29,347 29,890 29,775 29,812 (30,173) 29,78o 29,793 ?9,993-30,193- (FR) July 14, 1972 Aggregate Reserves Total Reserves (5) 32,032 32,643 32,830 33,061 (33,106) Required Reserves Seasonally Adjusted U. S. Gov't. Time and Private and Nonborrowed Nondeposits Interbank Reserves Demand (6) (7) (8) 31,931 32,525 32,728 32,968 (32,882) 20,669 20,859 20,874 20,894 (21,038) 8,748 8,762 8,934 9,059 (9,144) 2,407 2,845 2,879 2,889 (2,735) Annual Rates of Change Quarterly: 1971--3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1972--1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 1972--Mar. Apr. May June July June-July ""'~""""""" """""""""" """""""""" """""""""" """"""""''" """""""""" """""' ""' " """""""" "i'""""""" """"""""" !i;!!; !! ; 4.3 4.8 :::i:::::::: :i;; 10.8 7.4 15.6 7.0 6.2 8.8 7.5 5.51/ 4.5--8.5 ~ - :;;;::;;;j;:::;jjj;;;:::: iijijiiiHiiiiii ::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::: ........ ,....... .. ....... ....... ........ . ..... I"1...... ==== ========== ======= .. :::...:: ....1.: ..... ,.,,,.. ..... . ,°,. °..°o ..... ..,. ...... . .... ,,. ... ,.., ....... ...... ...... ........... • .. . .... ..... . .... ,o...,.,,....,,, .. .,.. ,... ., • ,...... ,. .,.,.., .. ..... .. ,.,.,o (8.0) (8.5) 7.2 2.2 10.1 12.8' 6.0 6.8 11.0 15.8 22.9 69 8.4 (1.5) (5.0) 2.4 2.8 6.8 4.4 6.7 14.5 18.0 14.2 13.3 22.2 7.5 8.8 13.5 13.2 1.9 23.6 16.8 (3.0) (3.0) (8.5) (4.5) (11.5) 13.0 11.0 0.9 1.1 (14.0) Weekly: 1972--Apr. 5 12 19 26 3 May 10 17 2 June July 1/ K^::::::::::::::^::^^: :: !::: :::::: :: ^:::^:: :: :: :: ^ !::::::::::::::!::::!::::::::: ::;;;::::;:::::;.::::::::. . ...., ................... ....... ...,... . .,. .. ..... .:....:::..:1.::11......... ,,, ..,o,.,,.,.,,,,,,......o, 7 14 21 28 5 12 NOTE: :::::::;::;:::::;:::;;:::::::;::: 29,898 29,728 29,632 29,971 29,787 29,990 30,011 29,820 30,055 30,187 :..,,o.,,.,' ........: ......... ,,,..,,..o. 30,054 o,.,.,.,,,.,,,,.,. ,.,,.....,H,..,,,.,,,,....,. .o.,,.,......,,,,.,...,..,...,o,30,337 . , . ,o ,.. . o,..,,.,.,, 30,012 30,516 30,093 °,, ,, .....,,.,°.....,,,0, iiiiiiHHiiiijiiiEiiii ....... ,,...,,. ~..,,.,, ~ 1 ::::::::::::!,:::::::::: ......... '''''' .,. °.... ,,,, .,., ,., ,.., .,..o., ..,...,,,..**.,....,, ,,,,,.,.o,,...,...,,,, ,,...,,,,o,.o...oH,. ..,.,.,.,,,....,,,.,H..,,, .,,,.,.,.,......,,,., .............. .oo,.,.., .... 29,728 29,525 29,850 30,198 32,655 32,526 32,615 32,845 32,519 32,512 32,568 32,569 20,824 20,765 20,988 20,843 8,713 8,744 8,751 8,780 2,757 2,798 2,983 2,874 30,263 30,004 29,908 29,373 29,605 32,529 32,638 32,995 32,783 33,033 32,415 32,555 32,960 32,723 32,819 20,866 20,914 20,884 20,717 20,987 8,840 8,891 8,931 8,961 8,992 33,217 32,953 33,213 32,758 33,163 32,864 33,158 32,642 20,766 20,912 20,989 20,871 9,024 9,052 9,058 9.092 2,742 2,647 2,985 2,963 2,978 3,030 2,899 2,876 2.746 33,162 21,024 20,828 9,098 9,125 29,589 29,606 29,Q61 :::::::!!!Eii!!!iE!E!::: 29,975 :::!::::!:::::::::!I!::: ....... ,,.*..... oo*.,..... ,,. .,,,.° ,,,,, ,,,.... ,, .,,,,' ,,,'.,,o, ...,o,,,,.,...,,,o,,,,, ,..o,,,,.,.,.,,,.., .,,.*H,,.,,,O,.,,,, 30,221 29,921 33,427 32,723 32,515 Data shown in parentheses are current projections. The range is centered on the 6.5 per cent rate of growth in these reserves from May to July thought to be consistent with growth in monetary aggregates as shown under Alternative B in the Bluebook of June 16, 1972. 2,911 2,630 Annual Growth Rates consistent with alternative B 1/ June July Q11 M, 6 9 6 M; 10-1/2 9-1/2 9 Credit Proxy (Adj.) 4 3-1/2 6111 6.5 7.5 10-1/2 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 1971--3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 1972--lst Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 3rd Qtr. 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Monetary Aggregates (Actual and current projections, seasonally adjusted) July 14,1972 7 Broad Money Supply (M2 ) Narrow Money Supply (M ) Period STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Table 2 Adjusted Credit Proxy U.S. Govt. Deposits Total Time and Savings Time deposits other than CD's (6) (2) (5) (4) (3) (1) Monthly Pattern in Billions of Dollars 228.8 469.9 364.9 6.3 274.4 241.2 231.2 475.5 366.7 3.7 278.1 244.3 233.5 480.1 372.1 6.1 279.9 246.5 235.0 376.3 7.4 282.8 248.1 483.0 235.7 486.4 287.0 7.4 380.9 250.7 236.6 490.5 253.8 382.3 5.3 290.9 (256.4) (238.7) (495.1) (383.9) (3.7) (294.2) Annual Percentage Rates of Change--Quarterly and Monthly 3.7 4.4 7.6 I !:::::*:::::::::::: : 8.2 5.3 7.6 1.1 8.0 9.7 14.7 15.7 15.iiiiiiiii9iiji 13.3 8.7 (9.0) 13.4 14.3 11.6 7.2 8.4 10.1 (11.5) 9.3 5,3 (7.0) 3.2 12.6 11.9 7.7 3.6 4.6 (10.5) We-ekly Pattern 11.3 11.0 S9.0) 9.9 5.9 17.7 13.5 14.7 4.4 (5.0) ... ii i. :::...:. iiii iiii: !jJ|.!:|i. i iJ. iii : 14.8 15,7 (13.0) 20.0 16.2 7.8 12.4 17.8 16.3 (13.5) 17.1 11.8 (10.5) 24.4 15.4 10.8 7.8 12.6 14.8 (12.5) Negotiable CD's (7) 37.1 (37.8) .. ................ .. . . .. ::::::: ::::::::: i ............ ............ 482.8 482.3 482.4 483.8 375.8 375.6 375.2 376.8 281.1 281.7 282.9 284.0 247.7 247.5 247.9 248.6 33.4 34.2 35.0 35.4 May 3 10 17 24 31 234.7 234.5 236.8 235.0 236.3 484.2 484.5 487.4 486.3 488.4 379.1 378.8 381.4 381.4 382.1 285.2 286.0 286.9 287.9 288.7 249.5 250.0 250.7 251.3 252.1 35.6 36.0 36.2 36 £ 36.7 June 7 14 21 28 236.6 236.6 237.3 236,0 489.3 490.0 491.5 490.6 383..2 381.6 383.7 381.2 289.5 290.7 291.2 292.0 252.7 253.4 254.2 254.7 36.8 37.3 37.0 37.3 5 12 pe 238.0 241.0 493.8 496.8 384.5 384.8 293.2 293.5 255.8 255.8 37.4 37.7 --- I ~ I _ Data shown in parentheses are current projections. pe - Partially estimated. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to nearest half per cent. As shown in the June 16, 1972 Bluebook. NOTES: 1/ ~ _~~__. . .:... n Billions of Dollars 235.1 234.9 234.5 235.2 ~ 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.6 (3.6) 36.3 5 12 19 26 _ (8) 33.2 33.8 33.4 34.7 1972-- Apr. July Nondeposit Sources of Funds ... 1...... CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Appendix Table I July 14, 1972 RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES a -,Total Period .- ... Nonborrowed '. l e. o Available to Support PVt Deposits "~ IL ' ~~ oney Stoc. . (3) .Measures M M (4) (5) . Bank red t measures Adjusted Total Credit Loans and Proxy Investments Total Time (6) Time Other than CD's i f .Other Thrift Institution Deposits (10) (9) (Per Ccnt Annual Rates of G1rowth) + + + 1968 1969 1970 1971 7.8 1.3 6.0 7.3 + + + 5.8 2.7 9.2 8.0 + + + 8.6 2.7 8.1 7.8 - 7.8 S3.2 - 5.4 - 6.2 + 9.3 + 2.3 + 8.1 + 11.1 CD's Nondeposit Funds U.S. Gov't. Demand (11) (12) (13) (Dollar Change in Billions) + 8.3 + 2.7 + 7.8 + 13.3 + + + + 9.7 0.3 8.3 9.5 + 11.0 + 3.9 + 8.1 + 11.3 + 11.3 - 4.9 + 17.9 + 17.9 + 11.1 + 1.4 + 11.0 + 16.2 + 6.4 + 3.4 + 7.7 + 17.5 + 2.8 - 12.6 + 14.5 + 7.9 + 2.6 + 13.0 8.4 7.6 + 5.0 4- 10.3 + + 4.8 t1.4 + 5.2 + 10 8 + 8.4 + 26.3 + 6.0 + 15.6 + 4.7 + 10.6 + 2.6 + 11.9 + - 0.7 9.1 9.7 8.8 + 11.5 + 10.6 + 22.3 + 12.2 + 21.2 + 10.1 + 20.1 + 13.5 + 3.9 - 7.1 ,. - . + + - 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.3 + + . 2.4 0.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 Semi-Annually 1st Half 1970 2nd Half 1970 + 0.4 - 11.6 + 3.0 + 15.3 + 5.2 +10.6 + + slt Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 + A 4 + 9,3 6.5 +10.9 + 4.6 + 10.0 + 2.4 + 17.0 + 8.8 + + + 12.2 + 9.2 + 7.4 + 13.3 + 11.3 + 11.3 + 15.6 + 14.7 + 17.3 +10.8 +10.6 + 9.1 + 10.6 + 3.7 + 1.1 + 9.3 + 5.3 + 18.1 + 12.4 + 4.4 + 8.0 + 13.3 + 8.7 + + + + + + 18.9 14.4 7.8 9.6 15 5 10.7 + 10.9 + 8.4 + 7.6 + 9.7 + 11.3 + 11.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.8 + 13.4 + 11.0 + 14,1 + 20.7 + 18.7 + 15.5 + 20.9 + 19.3 + 10.2 + 11.9 + 10.3 + 12.8 + 14.6 + 9.1 + 8.7 +11.3 + 8.2 + 14.1 + 9.1 + 12.1 + 13.9 + 10.7 + 15.5 + 15.2 + 12.0 + + + + + + + 10.5 + 6.6 + 6.2 + 7.1 + 6.5 + 10.2 + + + + + + 1st Half t972 9.6 4.7 + 11.6 5.6 5.2 QuarterlV Ist 2nd 3rd 4th l1t 2nd 1971- 1972- + 8.9 + 10.0 + 7.2 + 2.2 + 10.1 + 12.8 + 9.5 + 9.0 + 6.0 + 6.8 + 11.0 + 13.0 7an. Feb. Mar. + 10.6 + 8.6 + 7.3 + 8.1 + 11.7 + 8.4 + 8.2 + 9.0 Apr. May June + 8.5 + 13.4 + 7.9 + 16.9 + 9.9 +11.6 July Aug. Sept. + 4.4 4.1 + 12.9 7.6 + 2.8 + 22.9 + 6.8 + 6.9 -0.8 + 10.1 + 3,2 2.1 Oct. Nov. Dec. + 7.4 3.4 6.5 10.7 + 3.6 + 5.9 + 4.8 + + 2.8 4 2.0 + 21.4 + 2.6 Jan. Feb. Mar Apr. May June p 4 20.2 5.9 + 15.8 + 22.9 + 6.9 + 8.4 + 23.1 - 3.6 + 13.3 + 72.2 + 7.5 + 8.8 + + + + + + 3.2 12.6 11.9 7.7 3.6 4.6 Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr Qtr. 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 ___________ - NOTE: 1 - + 4.3 + 4.8 +10.8 + 7.4 +14.9 + 9.2 - 7.4 + 15.6 + 7.0 +6.2 + 8.8 - 7.5 2.9 2.9 13.4 14.3 11.6 7.2 8,4 10.1 - 0.3 + 26.0 + 28.3 + 26.5 + 23.9 + 18.5 + 22.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 - - 0.7 0.9 0.8 + 7,4 + 9.7 + 13.6 + 13.2 + 15.5 + 14.8 + 16.0 + 13.6 + 11.8 + 22.5 + 12.9 + 15.8 0.2 0.7 0.8 + - 1.6 0.2 1.0 + 10.7 + 4.1 4 7.9 + 6.2 + 11.9 + 10.9 + 9.4 + 4.2 + 10.7 + + + + 16.7 + 10.3 F 13.8 1.1 0.4 0.8 + 0.8 + 0.6 + 0.9 + 9.1 + 8.7 + 11.0 + 4.8 + 11.2 + 13.1 + 11.9 + 6,2 + 14.9 + 17.1 + 9.1 + 20.8 + 13.7 + 13.0 + 17.0 + 13.0 + 11.4 + 13.7 1.1 0.5 1.2 + + 1.9 0.7 0.8 + + + + + + + 9.9 + 5.9 +17 7 + 13.5 + 14.7 + 4.4 + + + + + + 20.0 + 16.2 + 7.8 + 12.4 + + + + + + + + + + 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.3 + + + 6.1 2.6 2.4 1.3 - 2.1 15.4 16.7 13 8 10.9 10.2 10.6 ~-'.-,---~.---------n ~I~- 1969, 14.2 12.4 18.0 3.6 18.4 + 17.8 + 16.3 24.4 15.4 10.8 7.8 12.6 14.8 23.9 17.6 19.0 15.8 + 10.7 + 13.4 2.6 1.3 2.3 1.8 0 1 - 4.6 2.6 - 0.4 + 28.8 + 29.7 + 26.0 4.8 3.2 7.9 21.9 17.3 13.7 12.8 20.5 - + 13.4 8&5 8.8 7.7 28.8 14.7 8.2 15.9 14.8 15.7 ^ 27.5 14.0 5.3 14.7 17.1 11.8 Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are Included begining Oetober 16, beginning October 1, 1970. - Preliminary 12.3 10.3 9.7 11.1 15.1 7.3 1 3.7 1.6 0.8 I. ard requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included - 0.8 Appendix Table II RESERVES ANDMONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, Billions of dollars) CONFIDENTIAL July 14, (FR) 1972 Annually: Dec. 1968 Dec. 1969 Dec. 1970 Monthly: 1971--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June p Weekly: 1972--Apr. 5 12 19 26 May 3 10 17 24 31 June 7 14 21 28 p July 5 NOTES: Reserve requirements on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper, and Euro-dollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which Weekly data are not available for M 3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. are for last day of month. p - Preliminary. 

Federal Reserve (1972, July 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19720718

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19720718,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1972},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19720718},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}