Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. (CONFIDENTIAL FR) June 16, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CONFIDENTIAL (FR) June 16, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) Through mid-June reserves available to support private nonbank deposits (RPD) have been running below the mid-point of the path specified at the last meeting of the Committee. Partially pro- jected data for required reserves for the last half of June suggest a somewhat larger shortfall unless excess reserves rise substantially. If excess reserves in the last two weeks of the month were to average no more than the $150 million expected at the time of the last FOMC meeting, the May-June RPD growth would be 7 per cent at an annual rate, slightly below the Committee's 7-1/2 to 11-1/2 per cent target range, as shown in the attached Table 1. (2) Growth in all of the key money and credit aggregates fell a little short of expectations in May but, as the attached Table 2 shows, deviations were not very significant. M1 increased at about a 4 per cent annual rate, M 2 at nearly a 9 per cent rate, and the adjusted credit proxy at about a 15 per cent rate. Shortfalls appear to have continued in the first half of June. (3) The Federal funds rate haS averaged just under 4-1/2 per cent in the two most recent statement weeks. This is close to 25 basis points above the level prevailing at the time of the last meeting, and still in the low end of the 4-1/4 to 5-1/2 per cent range that was thought to have been consistent with growth in RPD at the mid-point of its targeted range. Borrowings from the discount window--averaging about -2$135 million during the past three statement weeks--have also been moderately below levels thought necessary to restrain growth in the aggregates within targeted ranges. In the absence of any indications of a slowing in economic growth, it seems probable that there has been an only temporary shortfall in private demand for cash balances relative to GNP. However, the possibility that there has been some overestimation of the basic intensity of demands for cash associated with GNP growth cannot be ruled out. (4) The increase that had developed in the Federal funds rate following the last Committee meeting was not immediately reflected in shortterm rates generally. The relative absence of upward pressures on short rates was probably attributable largely to the combination of sizable Federal debt repayment in June and market expectations that the Treasury would not borrow new funds until the latter part of July. However, most recently bill rates have risen, with the 3-month bill rate around 3.95 per cent. (5) This outlook on Treasury financing along with some lightening of new issue calendars in both markets, contributed to a general strengthening of corporate and municipal bond markets during May. Encouraged by this im- proved atmosphere, underwriters bid rather aggressively for new issues, and bond yields declined generally. These May declines have since been erased, however, as investor resistance to aggressive underwriting pricing forced snydicate terminations. (6) The following table compares seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in major financial aggregates for recent periods. 1971 Total Reserves Fourth and First Quarters Combined (Mar. over Sept.) Latest 2 months (May over March) 6.2 15.1 15.1 Nonborrowed Reserves 8.0 8.9 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 7.7 8.6 M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 6.2 5.2 M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 11.1 10.8 M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 13.3 12.7 10.6 9.5 10.6 14. 2 11.3 13.3 11.0 Concepts of Money 8.0 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (Bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term market paper (Actual $ change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper $ 7.9 2.9 -1.8 Other than interbank and U. S. Government. Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are either end-of-month or last Wednesday of month figures. Prospective developments (7) The three alternative patterns of monetary aggregates and money market conditions summarized below differ little from those presented at the time of the last FOMC meeting. in M 1 for Given recent deposit flows, growth the second quarter is less than earlier indicated, but the alternatives proposed for third quarter rates of growth in M 1 are unchanged. We have reduced the range of member bank borrowings and lowered the bottom end of the Federal funds rate range,since pressures on the money market and on the discount window in the past several weeks have been less than anticipated for given increases in the monetary aggregates. But we have not lowered the top end of the funds rate ranges because we still feel that basic money demands will be strong, given the vigorous GNP growth projected, and that, therefore, there are some odds--not trivially small--that restraint of growth in the aggregates can require a considerable tightening of the money market. detailed monthly and quarterly figures, RPD, More including data for total reserves and are shown on the next two pages. Federal funds rate Member bank borrowings ($ millions) A B C 3-1/2--5 4--5-1/2 4-1/2--6 50-250 75-450 150-650 6% 10 6 7-1/2 6% 9 6 6-1/2 6% 8-1/2 6 5-1/2 8% 6-1/2 7-1/2 7-1/2% 5-1/2 6-1/2 7% 4-1/2 5-1/2 Growth in M1 (SAAR) June July 2nd Q. 3rd Q. Near-term growth in RPD (SAAR) June July June-July -5Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns for Key Monetary Aggregates M 1 1972 June July Aug. Sept. M2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 237.0 239.0 240.4 241.5 237.0 238.8 240.0 240.8 237.0 238.7 239.7 240.3 490.8 495.2 498.9 501.7 490.8 494.7 497.7 499.9 490.8 494.4 496.7 498.3 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth June July Aug. Sept. 6.0 10.0 7.0 5.5 6,0 9.0 6.0 4.0 6.0 8.5 5.0 3.0 10.5 11.0 9.0 6.5 2nd Q. 6.0 7.5 6.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 9.0 9.0 3rd Q. Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A 1972 June July Aug. Sept. 382.1 383.6 387.0 390.3 Alt. B 382.1 383.2 386.1 389.0 Alt. C 382.1 383.0 385.5 387.9 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth June July Aug. Sept. 4.0 4.5 10.5 10.0 4.0 3.5 9.0 9.0 4.0 2nd Q. 3rd Q. 10.5 8.5 10.5 7.0 10.5 6.0 -- 3.0 8.0 7.5 10.5 7.5 5.5 10.5 9.0 5.5 4.0 9.0 7.5 9.0 6.0 9.5 Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Patterns of Reserve Aggregates 1972 _ _RPD Total Reserves / Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt.-B Alt. C June July 33,072 32,925 33,064 32,886 33,056 32,852 30,161 30,329 30,153 30,291 30,145 30,257 Aug. Sept. 33,054 33,226 32,961 33,091 32,899 32,986 30,629 30,684 30,536 30,550 30,475 30,446 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth June 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 July Aug. -5.5 4.5 -6.5 2.5 -7.5 115 6.5 12.0 5.5 9.5 4.5 8.5 Sept. 6.0 4.5 3.0 2.0 0.5 2nd Q. 13.0 13.0 13.0 7.0 7.0 7,0 3rd Q. 2.0 0.5 -1.0 7.0 5.5 4.0 I/ Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits. -1.0 -7(8) The first two alternatives encompass recently prevailing money market conditions, taken to be typified by a Federal funds rate aroung 4-3/8--4-1/2 per cent. But under alternative A, the staff would expect the funds rate to edge down from current levels, while under alternative B it is likely to edge up as reserve provision through open market operations is held back in the face of strengthening demand for money. M1 growth is expected to be largest early in the third quarter--with the July rise estimated at around a 9 per cent annual rate--as U. S. Government deposits decline sharply on balance. (9) For several weeks the 3-month bill rate has been seasonally low relative to the Federal funds rate. Over the course of July the bill rate normally rises relative to the funds rate. The seasonal rise--or at least the full extent of it--may be delayed this year if the Treasury does not begin its third quarter cash borrowing until late July or early August. We have assumed a fairly sizable cash borrowing around mid-July. And we would expect significant upward pressures on the bill rate to begin emerging it least by the latter part of July, with the full force of such pressures possibly not developing until later in the summer. Between now and the July 18 FOMC meeting, a 3-month bill rate in a 3-3/4--4-1/2 per cent range might be anticipated, assuming money market conditions around those currently prevailing, but with the rate moving higher if the funds rate were to move above 4-3/4 per cent. (10) As the third quarter progresses, growth in time deposits other than large CD's is expected to slow, reflecting rising short-term market interest rates. The slowdown does not look as if it will be as sharp as we had earlier expected in view of the strong performance of such deposits in recent weeks and the failure of short-term market rates thus far to show significant increases. Even so, M 2 is projected to grow more slowly in the third quarter than in the second under alternatives B and C, and at just about the same rate under alternative A. (11) The recent strong business loan demand at banks is expected to persist in the summer. And with diminished net inflows of time deposits other than large CD's, banks can be expected to bid fairly aggressively for large negotiable CD funds. Nevertheless, bank credit expansion--as measured by the proxy--may be very slow in June and July as continued declines in U. S. Government deposits divert funds from banks. Over the third quarter as a whole, bank credit growth is likely to be somewhat slower than in the second quarter. (12) Between now and the next meeting of the Committee, there is unlikely to be much upward pressure on long-term interest rates, given the moderate credit demands in prospect, unless money market conditions become significantly firmer. If the Treasury should elect to undertake an advance refunding in the latter part of June, some modest near-term increase in Treasury yields might be expected, but the spill-over of such yield increases to other long-term markets would probably not be very large. Taking a somewhat longer view, as the summer progresses the expected rise in short-term rates, fueled by the increased cash needs of the Treasury, will probably lead to some increase in long-term interest rates generally. -9Proposed directive (13) Three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive are presented below. They might be associated with the correspondingly lettered patterns of growth in the aggregates described in the preceding section. (14) Alternative A. "To implement this policy, while taking account of [DEL: and] developments market capital refunding] possible Treasury [DEL: FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve slower] somewhat and money market conditions that will support [DEL: growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead AT SOMEWHAT FASTER RATES THAN IN RECENT MONTHS." (15) Alternative B. "To implement this policy, while taking account of and] developments market capital [DEL: refunding] possible Treasury [DEL: FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and slower] somewhat money market conditions that will support [DEL: MODERATE growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." (16) Alternative C. "To implement this policy, while taking account of refunding] capital market developments and possible Treasury [DEL: FINANCING, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and slower] somewhat money market conditions that will support [DEL: growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead AT SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATES THAN IN RECENT MONTHS." -10- (17) Deletion of the reference to capital market develop- ments is proposed for alternatives A and B in view of the recent and prospective moderation of credit demands in capital markets. However, the Committee might wish to consider including such a reference in association with alternative C because of the stronger upward pressures in long-term markets that could develop under that alternative. (18) The other differences in language among these alter- natives are in the descriptions of desired growth in monetary aggregates. In alternative A the words "at somewhat faster rates than in recent months" are designed to place an accent on the objective under this alternative of achieving some pick-up from the average rates of May and June. In B the term "moderate" is suggested in place of the previous "somewhat slower" to avoid any implication that the Committee seeks a continued slowing of monetary growth from the rates recently achieved. As indicated, it is proposed to retain the phrase "somewhat slower" in alternative C. CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 6/16/72 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 133 I27 K I I J M I I I I I I I J 1971 I O I I I I I I I J S M 1972 I M J A M 1972 I I J J CHART 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 6/16/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 ,- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 46/14/72) 2: I I I - M I1 1 220 I i I i i i I/ I_ I I I_ I I 4 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 SI 1971 1972 F I M JI A M 1972 I J - J CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 6/16/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 - 400 -390 - - 380 - -380 6/14/72) -360 370 -340 I iijil_ Ii I 1,J1il4 I IJ I t I\ \ TOTAL RESERVES - 35 -36 34 -34 33 - 32 /14/72) 32 32 30 1971 1972 F M A M 1972 J J CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES Short-term INTEREST RATES Long-term FWEEKLY AVERAGES 1970 1971 1972 1970 1971 1972 1970 1971 1972 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Table 1 June 16, 1972 Bank Reserves Reserves Available for Private Nonbank Deposits Seasonally Adjusted Actual Target and Associated and Patterns Projected Period Not Seasonally Adjusted Actual Target and Associated and Patterns ProJected (4) (FR) Required Reserves Aggregate Reserves Total Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Time Nonborrowed Private and Demand Nondeposits Reserves U. S. Gov't. and Interbank (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 32,032 32,644 32,842 (33,064) 31,931 32,525 32,742 (32,958) 20,669 20,859 20,877 (20,886) 8,748 8,762 8,935 (9,057) 2,407 2,845 2,876 (2,911) 1972--1st Qtr. 2nd Qtr. 4.3 4.8 10.8 (7.0) 7.2 2.2 10.1 (13.0) 6.0 6.8 10.5 (13.0) 2.4 2.8 6.8 (4.0) 6.7 14.5 18.0 (14.0) 1972--Mar. Apr. May June May-June 15.6 7.0 6.7 (7.5) (7.0) 15.8 22.9 7.3 (8.0) (7.5) 13.3 22.2 8.0 (8.0) (8.0) 13.5 11.0 1.0 (0.5) (1.0) 13.2 1.9 23.7 (16.5) (20.0) (2) 1972--Mar. Apr. May June 29,821 30,006 30,194-30,395!1 29,625 29,799 29,965 (30,153) 29,912 29,823 29,831-30,030 29,347 29,890 29,788 (29,793) Annual Rates of Change Quarterly: 1971--3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. Weekly: 1972--Apr. May 7.0 12.0 7.5-11.51/ 5 12 19 26 29,898 29,728 ooj ..o ,.,,..,oHij..i..,......ii29,632 29,971 29,728 29,525 29,850 30,198 32,655 32,526 32,615 32,845 32,519 32,512 32,568 32,569 20,824 20,765 20,988 20,843 8,713 8,744 8,751 8,780 2,757 2,798 2,983 2,874 3 29,787 29,990 30,011 29,825 30,110 30,263 30,004 29,908 29,378 29,659 32,529 32,638 32,995 32,783 33,083 32,415 32,555 32,960 32,722 32,869 20,866 20,914 20,884 20,719 20,996 8,840 8,891 8,931 8,964 8,992 2,742 2,647 2,985 2,958 2,973 30,223 30,058 29,625 29,610 33,249 32,984 33,193 32,896 20,769 20,901 9,022 9,036 3,026 2,926 10 17 24 31 June 7 14 I ~r WV-Wvvvw-rw ........ QIIiIDO 0::,.;;;;.S; ---------- ;----- I NOTE: Data shown in parentheses are current projections. 1/ The range is centered on the 9.5 per cent annual rate of growth in these reserves from April to June thought to be consistent with growth in monetary aggregates as shown under Alternative B in the Bluebook of May 19, 1972. Annual Growth Rates consistent with Alternative B 1/ May 4-1/2 9-1/2 M1 M2 Credit Proxy (Adj.) 17 Period June l-72 10 OIl 7-1/4 9 2-1/2 11 Narrow Broad Money Supply (M 1 ) Money Supply (M2) (1) Feb. Mar. Apr. May June U.S. Adjusted Govt. Deposits Credit Proxy (3) Dollars (4) 364.9 366.7 372.1 376.3 380.9 (382.1) 6.3 3.7 6.1 7.4 7.4 (5.0) Annual Percentage Rates of Change--Quarte rly and Monthly 3.7 4.4 7.6 1.1 8.0 9.7 ::::::::::::: : :::: 9.3 13.3 11.3 (6.0) (9.0) (10.5) 1971--3rd C 4th 1972--1st q 2nd C 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1 8 15 22 29 3.2 12.6 11.9 7.7 4.1 13.4 9.9 14.3 11.6 7.2 5.9 17.7 13.5 8.7 14.7 (6.0) (10.5) 235.1 234.9 234.5 235.2 May 3 10 17 24 31 234.7 234.5 236.8 235.0 June 7 14 pe 236.5 236.6 236.2 Total Time and Savings STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) June 16, 1972 other than CD's Negotiable CD's (8) 274.4 278.1 279.9 282.8 287.0 (290.9) 241.2 244.3 246.5 248.1 250.7 (253.8) 33.2 4.0 33.8 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 (3.7) 8.2 15.9 5.3 14.7 14.8 17.1 (12.0) (15.5) 17.8 33.4 34.7 36.3 (37.0) 24.4 15.4 10.8 7.8 12.6 (15.0) 3.2 5.2 6.2 6.7 6.9 279.7 279.4 279.8 279.5 280.2 245.9 245.7 246.8 246.4 246.6 33.8 33.7 33.0 33.1 33.7 482.3 482.4 483.8 375.8 375.6 375.2 376.8 7.6 8.2 6.4 6.4 281.1 281.7 282.9 284.0 247.7 247.5 247.9 248.6 34.2 35.0 35.4 484.2 484.6 487.5 486.4 488.3 379.1 378.9 381.4 381.4 382.1 7.9 7.0 6.9 7.6 7.3 285.2 286.1 286.9 287.9 288.8 249.5 250.1 250.7 251.4 252.1 35.6 36.0 36.1 36.5 36.7 489.3 383.1 382.1 6.9 5.3 289.5 291.0 252.8 253.6 36.7 37.3 482.8 490.2 33.4 " pe - Partially estimated. Data shown in parentheses are current projections. Annual rates of change other than those for the pa st are rounded to nearest half per cent. As shown in the May 19, 1972 Bluebook. NOTES: I/ Sources of Funds (7) (16.5) (4.0) Nondeposit Time deposits (6) (5) 20.0 16.2 7.8 12.4 Weekly Pattern in Billions oi Dollars 231.4 477.3 368.3 232.5 478.1 369.9 233.9 480.7 372.5 233.8 480.2 372.7 233.4 480.0 373.4 5 12 19 26 Apr. (2) Monthly Pattern ir SBillions 228.8 469.9 231.2 475.5 233.5 480.1 235.0 483.0 235.8 486.5 (237.0) (490.8) 1972--Jan. 1972--Mar. Table 2 Monetary Aggregates (Actual and current projections, seasonally adjusted) CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Appendix Table I RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES SRps'reI Period Total /1% Nonborrowed Money Stock Measures Available to Support Pvt. Deposits MI M2 /;;% Bank Credit Measures__ Adjusted Total Credit Loans and Total Proxy Investments Time M3 I. (3) Annually: (4) S (6) (5) (Per Cent Annual Rates 1968 1969 1970 1971 + 7.8 + + 1.3 6.0 7.3 + + + 8.6 2.7 8.1 7.8 + + + + 7.8 3.2 5.4 6.2 + 9.3 + 2.3 + 8.1 + 11.1 + June 16, 197 2 Time Other than CD's Other Thrift Institution Deposits CD's (Dolla Growth) + : + + 1: + + 9.7 0.3 + 8.3 + 9.5 + 11.0 + 3.9 + 8.1 + 11.3 + 11.3 4.9 + 17.9 + 17.9 + 11.1 + 1.4 + 16.2 + 17.5 + + 1- i .U 1 + + + 6.4 3.4 7.7 U.S. Gov't. Demand (12) (13) (11) (10) (9) Nondeposit Funds Change in Billions) S2.8 12.6 - 14.5 - 7.9 + 2.6 + 13.0 - 8.4 7.6 - 4.6 2.6 0.4 - 0.3 Semi-Annually: 1st Half 1970 2nd Half 1970 + 0.4 + 11.6 + 5.2 +10.6 + 5.8 + 10.1 + + 4.8 + 11.4 + 26.3 + 6.0 + 15.6 + + 10.3 1st Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 + + 9.6 4.7 +10.9 +4.6 + 15.5 + 6.3 + 17.0 + 8.8 + + + 22.3 + 12.2 + 21.2 + 10.1 + 20.1 + 13.5 + 8.9 + 10.0 + 7.2 + 2.2 + 10.1 +10.8 +10.6 + 4.3 + 4.8 +10.8 + 9.1 + 10.6 + 3.7 + 1.1 + 9.3 + 18.1 + 12.4 + 4.4 + 8.0 + 13.3 + 18.9 + 14.4 + 7.8 + 9.6 + 15.5 + 10.9 + 8.4 + 7.6 + 9.7 + 11.3 + + + + + Jan. Feb. Mar. + 10.6 + 8.6 + 7.3 + 8.2 + 9.0 +14.9 + 2.8 + 13.4 + 11.0 + 14.1 + 20.7 + 18.7 + 15.5 + 20.9 + 19.3 + 10.2 + 11.9 + 10.3 + 28.8 + 29.7 + 26.0 + 26.0 + 28.3 + 26.5 + 23.9 Apr. May June + 8.5 + 13.4 + + 8.2 + 14.1 + 9.1 + 12.1 + 13.9 + 10.7 + 15.5 + 15.2 + 12.0 + + + 8.5 8.8 7.7 + 13.2 + 15.5 + 14.8 + 16.0 + 13.6 + 11.8 + 22.5 + 12.9 7.9 +11.6 + 8.7 +11.3 July Aug. Sept. + 4.4 + 4.1 + 12.9 + 6.8 + 6.9 -0.8 + 10.1 + 3.2 2.1 + 7.5 + + 2.9 2.9 + 10.5 + 6.6 + 6.2 + 10.7 + 4.1 7.9 + 9.4 + 4.2 + 10.7 + + + 4.8 3.2 7.9 + 16.7 + 10.3 + 13.8 + 0.5 2.6 + 9.1 + 8.7 + 11.0 + 4.8 + 11.2 + 13.1 + 17.1 + 9.1 + 20.8 + 13.7 + 13.0 + 17.0 + 13.0 + + 7.1 + 6.5 + 10.2 + 3.2 + 12.6 + 11.9 + 7.7 + 4.1 + 13.4 + 14.3 + 11.6 + 7.2 + 8.7 + + + + + + 9.9 + 5.9 + 17.7 + 13.5 + 14.7 + 20.0 + 16.2 + 7.8 + 12.4 + + + + + + 23.9 + 17.6 5.0 9.7 8.8 8.4 4.7 + 10.6 Quarterilv: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th let 1971: Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Oct. 1972: - Nov. Dec. + 3.4 + 10.7 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. + 20.2 May - + 3.6 + 5.9 + 4.8 + 9.2 + 7.4 + 15.6 + 7.0 +6.7 5.9 4 15.8 + 22.9 p ______________L______ NOTE: 7.4 + 7.3 J__________.1___________ 15.4 16.7 13.8 10.9 10.2 + 1L................IIL.......... Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, beginning October 1, 1970. p - Preliminary 28.8 14.7 8.2 15.9 14.8 + 17.8 + 21.9 + 17.3 + 13.7 + 12.8 + 20.5 24.4 15.4 10.8 7.8 12.6 + 18.5 + 22.1 + 15.8 + 11.4 + 13.7 + 19.0 + 15.8 10.0 1 ________ and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included - 0.1 + + 0.3 1.1 - 0.3 " Reserves Total Period (1) Annually: Dec. Dec. 1968 1969 Nonborrowd (2) Money Available to Support Pvt. Total Deposits (3) Appendix Table II CONFIDENTIAL (FR) RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (Seasonally adjusted, Billions of dollars) June 16, 1972 "L toCK Measures M M2 M3 (5) (6) Pvt.ep (4) 27.249 27.977 26.471 26.829 24.963 25.245 197.4 203.7 154.0 157.7 Bank Creadi neasures Total Adjusted Loans and Credit Investments Proxy nc~,, Total Time Time Other than CD's (10) vll_ Thrift Institution Deposits (8) (9) 204.2 194.1 180.6 183.2 194.6 201.5 378.0 368.8 572.6 588.3 304.6 305.4 390.6 406.0 CD's "^' (11) (7) NonDeposit Funds U.S. Gov't. Demand "\ Monthly: 28.037 27.227 25.902 209.4 161.7 398.1 603.0 312.8 416.5 202.3 188.7 204.9 13.6 20.7 5.7 July Aug. Sept. 28.315 28.695 29.059 27.060 27.907 28.438 26.009 26.385 26.812 210.3 211.6 212.8 162.4 163.5 164.5 401.7 405.6 409.2 608.4 613.9 619.1 318.2 322.5 324.3 422.5 427.5 429.5 208.4 213.2 217.7 191.4 193.9 196.4 206.6 208.4 209.9 17.0 19.3 21.3 19.8 18.8 16.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 Oct. Nov. Dec. 28.700 28.704 29.132 28.190 28.239 28.764 26.485 26.554 26.747 213.1 213.6 214.8 164.8 164.9 165.8 412.1 414.3 418.2 623.9 627.9 634.0 324.8 326.5 330.6 430.6 433.1 438.9 221.5 224.2 228.9 198.9 200.6 203.4 211.8 213.6 215.8 22.6 23.6 25.5 14.2 12.7 11.6 5.2 6.2 6.4 1971--Jan. Feb. Mar. 29.390 29.600 29.779 28.958 29.240 29.445 26.930 27.132 27.470 215.3 217.7 219.7 166.0 168.0 169.7 423.1 430.4 437.1 642.2 653.4 663.9 333.4 336.7 339.6 443.6 449.0 452.4 234.4 240.2 245.4 207.8 212.7 217.4 219.2 223.0 226.8 26.6 27.5 28.1 10.1 8.6 7.0 5.8 4.9 4.0 Apr. May June 29.991 30.327 30.527 29.859 30.106 30.106 27.735 27.935 28.199 221.2 223.8 225.5 170.7 173.0 174.5 441.5 446.6 450.6 672.5 681.0 687.8 342.0 344.5 346.7 455.2 458.9 464.1 248.1 251.3 254.4 220.3 222.8 225.0 231.0 234.4 237.2 27.8 28.5 29.4 5.1 4.1 4.5 5.6 5.4 4.3 July Aug. Sept. 30.639 30.743 31.073 29.915 29.985 30.556 28.358 28.521 28.503 227.4 228.0 227.6 175.8 176.3 175.5 453.4 454.5 455.6 693.8 697.6 701.2 349.8 351.0 353.3 466.5 471.1 475.4 256.4 257.3 259.6 225.9 226.5 228.0 240.4 243.1 245.6 30.4 30.8 31.6 4.3 3.9 4.1 5.1 5.7 6.6 Oct. Nov. Dec. 30.882 30.970 31.246 30.485 30.535 31.079 28.588 28.728 28.844 227.7 227.7 228.2 175.5 175.5 175.7 458.3 460.8 464.7 706.5 711.6 718.1 354.7 358.0 361.9 480.1 482.6 488.6 263.3 265.3 269.9 230.6 233.1 236.4 248.3 250.8 253.4 32.7 32.2 33.4 4.8 5.4 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 1972--Jan. Feb. Mar. 31.772 31.616 32.032 31.678 31.583 31.933 29.064 29.244 29.625 228.8 231.7 233.5 176.0 178., 179.9 469.9 475.5 480.1 727.3 737.4 745.9 364.9 366.7 372.1 494.4 499.5 507.0 274.4 278.1 279.9 241.2 244.3 246.5 257.4 261.8 265.8 33.2 33.8 33.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 6.3 3.7 6.1 Apr. May 32.644 32.842 32.525 32.742 29.799 29.965 235.0 235.8 180.9 181.4 483.0 486.5 752.7 759.1 376.3 380.9 508.5 516.3 282.8 287.0 248.1 250.7 269.7 272.6 34.7 36.3 3.5 3.7 7.4 7.4 31.797 31.473 31.695 31.519 31.778 31.427 31.678 31.505 29.138 28.991 29.362 29.192 229.8 230.3 231.2 232.2 176.9 177.2 178.0 178.8 472.2 473.3 475.6 477.2 ..... .. ............ 365.1 365.7 366.9 367.2 275.8 276.5 278.2 279.3 242.4 243.0 244.4 245.0 S33.4 :: 33.5 33.8 34.3 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 4.8 5.1 3.8 3.0 178.2 179.0 180.2 180.1 179.5 181.1 181.0 180.4 181.0 477.3 478.1 480.7 480.2 480.0 482.8 482.3 482.4 483. 8 368.3 369.9 372.5 372.7 373.4 375.8 375.6 375.2 376.8 33.8 33.7 33.0 33.1 33.7 33.4 34.2 35.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 5.2 6.2 6.7 6.9 7.6 8.2 6.4 35A. 3.7 6.4 180.6 180.1 182.3 180.5 181.7 484.2 484.6 487.5 486.4 488.3 379.1 378.9 381.4 381.4 382.1 35.6 S6.0 36.1 :36.5 S36.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.6 7.9 7.0 6.9 7.6 7.3 1970--June Weekly: 2 9 16 23 1972--Feb. Mar. Apr. 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 31.744 31.709 32.164 31.650 32.466 31.666 31.598 32.151 31.538 32.307 29.497 29.575 29.869 29.216 29.782 32.655 32.526 32.615 32.845 32.519 32.512 32.568 32.569 29.898 29.728 29.632 29.971 231.4 232.5 233.9 233.8 233.4 235.1 234.9 2345 235.2 3 32.529 32.638 32.995 32.783 33.083 32.415 32.555 32.960 32.722 32.869 29.787 29.990 30.011 29.825 30.110 234.7 234.5 236.8 235.0 236.2 May 10 17 24 31p June 7p NOTES: p - ::1 1:: : [:::::: ::: 279. 7 279.4 279.8 279.5 280.2 281.1 281.7 282.9 284.0 :::::::::::::::::: 285.2 286.1 286.9 287.9 :::::::::::::::::: 288.8 ...... :::.:.....:: 245,9 245.7 246.8 246.4 246.6 247.7 247.5 247.9 248 6 249.5 250.1 250.7 251.4 252.1 iiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 3.7 H 36.7 252.8 289.5 383.1 489.3 236.5 182.0 30.223 33.249 33.193 1 I__________ I l~~-'Y""' ' Reserve requirements on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bankMonthly data are Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. related commercial paper, and Euro-dollar borrowings of U. S. banks. daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. Weekly data are not available for M3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. Preliminary. 6.9 

Federal Reserve (1972, June 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19720620

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19720620,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1972},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19720620},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}