Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) April 3, 1970. MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS Recent developments Preliminary estimates indicate that growth in the adjusted (1) bank credit proxy for both March and the first quarter was in line with annual rates regarded as desirable at the time of the last Committee meeting. While the money supply and time deposits appear to have grown somewhat more rapidly than projected over the period as a whole, for a time between meetings the emerging weekly evidence suggested that these aggregates were falling short of the earlier blue book figures. However, in the final--Easter--week of March, the preliminary data indicate that a very large bulge in private demand deposits developed, for the most part technical This reflected factors affecting cash items and related to the 4-day holiday week-end abroad and perhaps also the postal strike and the air traffic slowdown. BOARD STAFF PROJECTIONS OF CHANGES IN MONETARY AGGREGATES COMPARED WITH ESTIMATED RESULTS For March and First Quarter (Seasonally adjusted annual rates) Expectations at last meeting QI (March over December) Adjusted Proxy Money Supply Time Deposits March 20 Current Projection Fztimate 4 0.3 + 2.0 - 0.1 + 1.6 + 0.4 + 3.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 + 0.2 +10.3 + 6.6 +12.5 + 7.9 + 5.4 +11.9 + 9.9 +11.4 +13.7 March (March over February) Adjusted Proxy Money Supply Time Deposits -2Time deposits in March showed their first major monthly (2) increase on average in over a year, as had been projected. The size of the increase was a little larger than anticipated, due in large measure to steeper than forecast declines in short-term market rates. While a build-up of foreign official CD's continued to account for a sizable part of the March growth in total time accounts, the pick-up in flows to consumer-type time and savings accounts--first evident in February--strengthened further during March. Also, as Treasury bill yields dropped below CD rate ceilings, sales of CD's to domestic holders began to develop. (3) Despite the generally strengthened deposit flows, growth in the adjusted bank credit proxy for March was about as projected in the last blue book. In addition to a modest short-fall in U.S. Government deposits as compared with estimates, the main factors offsetting greater deposit gains were larger cut-backs than forecast in Euro-dollar and slower than estimated growth in bank-related commercial paper. borrowing From the end of February to the end of March, Euro-dollar borrowings of major banks were reduced by more than $1 billion, while other nondeposit sources of funds, after their growth slowed in the early weeks of March, showed a net contraction of $160 million in the week ending March 25 (the latest for which data are available). (4) Treasury bill yields have dropped 20 to 50 basis points on balance from the levels prevailing at the time of the last Committee meeting, and other short-term rates have dropped commensurately. For a brief period about ten days ago, bill yields reached substantially lower levels. This temporary further decline reflected actions by dealers to build up inventories and sizable seasonal demands for bills--arising from the pay-off of maturing tax bills, from bank window dressing, and from the Cook County property tax date--coming at a time when official statements and emerging financial statistics both seemed to be confirming market expectations that monetary policy had become less restrictive. Since late March, bill yields have backed up, with the 3-month issue most recently bid at about 6.35 per cent, as dealer bill positions expanded sharply to more than $4 billion and in partial reflection of a normal seasonal reversal in yields. RECENT YIELDS ON TREASURY BILLS (Per cent per annum) 3 month Maturities 6 month 1 year Level at close of day before March 10 Meeting 6.86 6.72 6.52 Recent Low (March 24) 6.08 6.19 6.26 April 2 Close 6.35 6.40 6.31 Memo: Investment Yield (April 2) 6.51 6.67 6.70 6.75 7.00 7.50 CD Ceilings Money market conditions on balance have been somewhat (5) more comfortable over the last four weeks than in the prior intermeeting period. Early in the period the Desk sought to achieve eas- ier conditions that would help to offset the observed shortfall in the monetary aggregates relative to expectations, but more recently money market conditions have been permitted to firm up a little again, partly under the pressure of dealer financing needs. Over the inter-meeting weeks as a whole, the effective Federal funds rate averaged close to 7-3/4 per cent, compared to an average of about 8-3/4 per cent in the preceding 4-week period, and dealer financing costs declined to an average of around 8-3/8 per cent in New York. Net borrowed reserves have fluctuated in a fairly wide $675-$900 million range. Excluding the most recent week, when bank uncertain- ties about reserve positions and preparation for the quarterly statement data increased bank use of the discount window, member bank borrowings have averaged about $875 million. (6) The following table compares recent changes in major reserves, deposit and credit aggregates with earlier selected periods (in seasonally adjusted annual rates): 1969 (Dec. over Dec.) Q3 '69 (Sept. over June) Q4 '69 (Dec. over Sept.) Q1 '70 p (March.-ver Dec.) Total Reserves -1.6 - 9.3 1.4 -3.4 Nonborrowed Reserves -3.0 - 4.8 -0.1 -0.8 Money Supply 2.5 Time and savings deposits Savings accounts at nonbank thrift institutions -5.3 --13.3 1.2 3.2 -- 0.2 1/ 3.3 2.1 1.3 -1.0- Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy) -4.0 - 9.4 0.1 0.4 Proxy plus Euro-dollars -1.7 - 6.2 -0.3 Proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources n.a. - 4.0 2.0 Total loans and investments of all commercial banks 2.4 - 0.8 2.1 L&I plus loans sold outright to affiliates and foreign branches 3.4 0.8 2.2 Member bank deposits and related sources of funds -1.9 0.4 Commercial bank credit (month end) NOTE: -0.4 2.5 All items are average of daily figures (with "other nondeposit sources" based on an average for the month of Wednesday data), except the commercial bank credit series which are based on total outstanding on last Wednesday of month. All additions to the total member bank deposit series and the last Wednesday total loans and investments series are seasonally unadjusted numbers, since data have not been available for a long enough time to make seasonal adjustments. 1/ January - February, p Preliminary. 1970 only. Prospective developments (7) If the Committee wishes to continue on the policy course adopted at the March meeting, it may want to renew the second paragraph of the directive issued then, with the addition of a reference to the Treasury financing, as follows (alternative A): To implement this policy, the Committee desires to see moderate growth in money and bank credit over the months ahead. System open market operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to maintaining money market conditions consistent with that objective, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING. The path given below for monetary aggregates could be considered as consistent with the directive (data shown are seasonally adjusted monthly average levels in billions of dollars). It should be stressed that while we have specified point estimates,variations around these individual estimates are likely and should be acceptable, provided they are not cumulative in one direction. Total Money Time credit proxy Supply Deposits March- 306.0 201.2 194.2 27.7 April 308.0 201.9 197.5 28.1 May 307.0 203.0 199.6 28.0 June 309.6 202.5 201.9 27.8 4-1/2% 2-1/2% 16% 1-1/2% Adjusted bank Reserves Annual rate of in- crease, second quarter p/ Preliminary. (8) The money supply bulge at the end of March is likely to be followed by rather sharp declines in the money supply over the next few weeks--a development somewhat similar to last January. After this adjustment from the end-of-March bulge, the money supply path turns upward and the average level for June is somewhat greater than in the previous blue book, but with the annual rate of increase a somewhat slower 2-1/2 per cent because of the inflated March average level. For the adjusted credit proxy, the June average level is about the same as in the previous blue book. (9) A weekly pattern spanning the inter-meeting period consistent with the monthly path of monetary aggregates noted above is shown below (in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted), although it must be recognized, of course, that a weekly pattern is subject to even more random fluctuation than monthly figures. Total Reserves Adjusted Bank Credit Proxy Money Supply Time Deposits April 12 308.8 204.9 195.6 27.9 April 8 307.9 202.2 196.5 27.8 April 15 307.6 202.3 197.3 28.3 April 22 309.2 201.1 198.0 28.1 April 29 307.7 202.0 198.4 28.2 May 6 307.7 202.2 198.9 28.3 Week Ending p/ Preliminary. -8The weekly pattern shown here would lead to an average annual rate of increase from March to April of about 4 per cent for the money supply, 8 per cent for the adjusted proxy, and 20 per cent for time deposits (reflecting in large part strength at the end of March). A rather sizable drop in U.S. Government deposits is anticipated in April, and an even larger drop is likely to develop in May. This does not allow for the earlier timing of the Federal pay raise, and if the Treasury balance for this or other reasons tends to drop too low, the Treasury may come in for cash borrowing before the second quarter ends, a possibility not allowed for in our projections. (10) This aggregate pattern for the weeks ahead may require a Federal funds rate fluctuating in a 7-9 per cent range. Rates may have to move to the upper end of the range if short-term interest rates begin to stimulate more rapid growth in time deposits and particularly the adjusted bank credit proxy than is desired. Net borrowed reserves may fluctuate in a $650 million--$l.1 billion range, with member bank borrowings in a $750 million to $1.2 billion range. (11) The growth path shown for time deposits, both weekly and over the months ahead, assumes that-the 3-month Treasury bill rate will remain generally withing a 6-1/8--6-5/8 per cent range, and that there will be no significant further decline in other short-term rates. A bill rate in that range would appear to be consistent with some slowing of growth in time deposits from the very rapid $800 million per week pace of the latter half of March, which if it were to continue, would lead to an even larger rate of time deposit growth than the l1 per cent shown above for the second quarter. In April, growth in time deposits is expected to slow somewhat as the month progresses, largely as a result of less active CD issuance by banks, as explained below. In May, payment for the large AT&T bond offer- ing may also slow down time deposit inflows. Moreover, the stimulus from widespread advertising by banks of the new higher ceiling rates on consumer-type time deposits is likely to diminish as time goes on. (12) Consistent with growth in proxy held to about a 4-1/2 per cent, quarter, net growth in the adjusted bank credit annual rate, large CD's and nondeposit sources of funds are estimated to be around $150 million per week. time deposits in over the second relatively sizable volume, As banks obtain they are not likely to add to, and may make further repayments of, relatively high cost Euro-dollar and commercial paper borrowings. We have not, however, assumed further significant net repayment of such funds, partly because the greater strength now projected for GNP may sustain credit demand. Even so, growth in continues quite moderate, in the adjusted bank credit proxy largely as a result of a substantial drop U.S. Government deposits over the quarter as a large Federal cash surplus is (13) utilized to retire debt. To keep expansion of banks' money market liabilities within the dimensions of the preceding paragraph might require a 3month bill rate in the upper half of the 6-1/8--6-5/8 per cent range -10- mentioned earlier, unless the Committee wishes to permit somewhat greater growth in bank credit. As seasonal downward pressures on bill rates develop as the quarter progresses, this may mean that the Desk would have to supply less reserves than would otherwise be the case, thus exerting upward pressure on money market rates. There is the possibility that such pressures would lead to a reversal of market expectations that could back up interest rates on a broader scale. (14) Long-term interest rates over the next few weeks are not expected to decline much, if at all, in any event. The corporate calendar remains large, and, with short-term interest rates remaining around current levels, there is little reason to anticipate that investor expectations of credit easing will induce them to become more willing buyers of long-term debt instruments. Moreover, the Treasury at the end of April will be announcing a refunding of almost $5 billion of publicly-held maturing coupon issues, and if market conditions warrant might also include a prerefunding of about $5-1/2 billion of publicly-held August maturities. Alternative path (15) If the Committee desires to see somewhat more growth in money and bank credit over the months ahead, it may wish to consider the following directive language (alternative E); -11To implement this policy, the Committee desires to see SOMEWHAT MORE moderate growth in money and bank credit over the months ahead THAN SOUGHT AT THE PRECEDING MEETING. System open market operations until the next meeting of the Committee shall be conducted with a view to maintaining money market conditions consistent with that objective, TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING. The following path of the monetary aggregates might be taken to be consistent with this directive. Aajusted proxy Money Supply Time Deposits Total Reserves MarchR1 306.0 201.2 194.2 27.7 April 308.3 201.9 197.7 28.1 May 307.8 203. 1 200.5 28.1 June 310.9 202. 9 203.4 28.0 6-1/27. 3-1/2% 19% 4-1/2% Annual rate of increase, second quarter p/ Preliminary. Most of the additional expansive effect on the aggregates from this path develops after April. It is assumed that Desk operations supply more reserves -12- than under the previous alternative as April progresses, Treasury bill rates drop in and that the latter part of the month to around 6-1/8 per cent or below as the market comes to sense a further easing in monetary policy at a time when short-term rates may be tending to decline somewhat for seasonal reasons. A weekly pattern over the next several weeks con- (16) sistent with this alternative path is shown below. Time Deposits 195.6 Total Reserves 27.9 April 1 Adjusted proxy 308.8 Money Supply 204.9 April 8 307.9 202.2 196.5 27.8 April 15 307.7 202.3 197.4 28.3 April 22 309.3 201.1 198.1 28.1 April 29 308.2 202.1 198.8 28.2 May 6 308.3 202.3 199.4 28.4 p/ p/ Preliminary. With this pattern, the annual rate of increase in April, on average, for the adjusted proxy would be around 10 per cent; for the money supply 4 per cent; and for time deposits 22 per cent. It is assumed that banks would use part of the deposit funds obtained to reduce other borrowings. (17) Under this alternative, money market conditions in April would, on the whole, be somewhat less firm than under the first alternative. The Federal funds rate might drop below 7 per cent at -13times, and generally would not rise much above 8 per cents Member bank borrowings would generally remain under $900 million, and perhaps decline to as little as $60O million. Net borrowed reserves would probably fluctuate in a $500-$800 million range. (18) Long-term interest rates may decline for a time as a result both of the initial impact on expectations of such an easing in policy and the enhanced ability of banks to acquire securities. However, it is possible that before the end of the second quarter, interest rates could begin to rise again. particularly likely if Such an outcome would be there were indications of further easing fiscal restraints, with a consequent intensification of inflationary expectations and increased anticipatory borrowing. q S Free Borrowings Re erve (In millions of Period dollar.for weeks endinnmmin) T (nnthl1 .. n cators Federal Funds FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS IN PERSPECTIVT I lt -1u.,I w_ere I' I i-month U S Government Treaaury .. R.. (20 yr ) Re / I rio. oi rIow 01 KV, _ e. we- y Bond Corporate Neu Municipal ""(A (Asues (As) Yields [VI ji I'lOW ol { RL%{ lEe[eli • Gong ronborrowtid 1Rertvte d redit fank lrsi ii tIsrvs (dil (In million of dollr) I 2/ SaA n nails C iiL avid S A Money, all jnk CIp C-dit an and Money S A pIl lr y+ t Tite oney Poxy o es ou' lindJ (In billions of dollars) ftesthl - 491 580 635 844 -1, I 6 -1,078 -lo1 1969--Janury February March April Nay June July 1970--January February March p le" Iv 1969--Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 10 17 24 I 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 Feb Mar 8 46 8 30 8.60* 6 38 6 19 5.81 +160 -351 +137 + 32 + 2. 35 45 49 60 7 8 8 8 5 80 5 85 5 85 5.82 - 65 + 0 7 - 2 1 -2. 6 6 6 6 6 76 65 46 29 50 8 22 810 7 95 7 82 7 87 5 83 580 5 75 5 80 584 +163 01 14 16 44 6 6 6 6 59 66 78 83 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 6 75 78 95 05 7 55 7 75 7 88 7 83 800 6 6 6 6 7 84 80 90 95 04 8 85 8 70 8 76 &#45;&#45;&#45; 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 - 997 - 744 -1,006 - 975 - 849 5 99 6 11 6.22 6.03 6 11 6 28 6 27 6 22 6 55 6 50 6 74 6 91 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 - 759 916 766 8 98 8 98 7.76 7 87 7 11 6.63 6 92 6 67 6.72 - 818 349 886 9U1 9 8 9 9 57 57 07 61 7 7 7 7 01 09 11 13 6 6 6 6 -1,116 828 -1,129 857 1,01)9 9 II 9 43 9 68 88 8 39 7 7 7 6 7 07 00 02 94 00 -1,0)1 9 07 9 32 8 79 832 7 7 7 7 - 873 925 -1,072 92 91* 37 17 22 59 63 65* 98* 89 32* 75 90* 02* 04 13 13 27* 44 67 - 988 903 17 !t 24 - 946 - 832 576 8 8 9 9 8 7 14 21 28 - 567 788 760 918 8 45 896 9 30 9 04 7 7 7 7 92 88 82 89 6.93 6 89 691 694 8 8 8 8 4 II 18 25 -1,047 - 862 - 861 - 891 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 77 36 83 84 692 6 72 6 57 6 61 8 63 8.40 8 32 8 20 4 II p 694 890 671 865 8 32 7.71 7.82 6 89 6.80 6.78 25 p - 7.45 6.31 6 57 6.68 6 91 6.71 I p - 688 7.93 6 33 6.64 I 18 p Apr - 1.2** - 0.3 6 14 6.12 6 02 6 11 6 04 6 44 7 00 6 98 7 09 7 00 7 24 7 82 - 10 1970--Jan. +103 -112 -182 -270 +134 -183 .430 - 61 +169 -173 +328 +268 30 64 79 41 67 90 61 19 15 00 85 97 -1.045 August September October November Deceuber 58 74 97 00 19 58 61 74 83 80 88 50 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 91 75 14 18 71 21 18 39 41 4 - 860 - 779 939 1,110 1.034 1,183 8.22 7 46 8 96 6 67 6 15 7 19 -2 5 + 1.2 -03 - 2,5 +493 -323 -165 - 1.8 - 1. + 04 + 0.6 - 2 - 2.0 + 2 3 + 3.3 -0 - 1.0 +0.2 - 0.9 - - 1 1.9 3 4 -2.3 - 1.0 +370 - 20 +490 -282 + 2 6 + 2.6 - 0 1 -02 - 0 2 +0.5 +0.1 +0.5 34 48 57 57 52 + 41 + 51 + 1 7 - I 5 +1.5 - 1.6 +220 -143 +361 . U2 - 0.5 - 1.2 + 2.1 -'0.9 + 1.6 41 36 34 39 + 49 -316 +545 -531 - 0.7 - 0.4 +0.3 -0.9 6.28 6 26 6 24 6 00 - 68 - 1.2 - 0.1 8.25 8.52 8.76 8.74 5 85 5.75 5.84 5.80 8.55 5.90 + 55 -204 +358 -101 +157 +106 -175 - 7 + 0 6 -02 + 0 3 -13 +01 - 0 1 +03 -0.2 -- +13 -09 +1 -14 +03 -04 -03 -03 +01 + 0 2 + 1 0 + 04 -09 -01 -02 +01 +03 + 0 1 -09 9 + 0 3 -09 + 5 2 +03 -0.5 -04 - 0.5 -25 -0 7 -09 * 0.4 -0 5 +0.5 + 0.6 + 0.3 + 1.5 + 1.1 -0.6 + 1.6 + 3.1 - 0 4 + 1 3 +27 - I b + 0 7 - 4 0 - 3.5 n.. n. - -4 + 0 3 +0.2 -04 -0.1 -0.5 + 1.0 1 0.4 -0.3 +0.3 +0.6 + 0.6 +0.7 - 0.6 -0.1 + 0.4 +0.4 + 0.3 +0.7 + 0.8 + 4.6 +0.8 + 0.1 + 0.5 -3 1 -32 4 0 -2 - 0 1 + 2.2 + 1.1 - 0.1 - -0.9 +1.5 -1.8 + 1.9 +2.5 - 1.1 S -06 +07 -06 -0 1 + 0 7 - 1.2 1.2 - - 0.1 +13 3 +02 +01 +02 +03 -0.5 - 0.2 - 0.8 - 11 - 89 -)66 -1.7 -0.8 + 0 5 -- +3.4 1 08 -05 - 18 42 - 07 +10 +05 +03 3 1.3 - - 71 1-4 e 6 32 6 12 6 53 7 62 7 20 R (, 5 45 5.01 5 R -3 0 -3 7 - 2.4 39 :/ 2/ 3/ / " " p - Preliminary Average of total numbir .f days In period teta' o call pr tarry a 10-vear issues .jariin 5-year and 10-year tall protection, Includes I-ac Time deposts adju Jtdat all commercial bankt a iS change hse for month preceding specified period or in rase of ,*eekl) periods, the 'irst week sho n ** - Reflcts - 4 6 -2 7 -2 5- Aver Tear 1969 Parsto11 1969 Seood Ralf 1969 41 41 32 60 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 $400 million reduction in member bank deposits resulting from withdrawal Percentage annual rates are adjusted to eliminate this break in series of a large country hlan S A 6 - Seasonally adjusted from Systen membership. April 1, 1970 12 +25 + 4.3 + 0.6 -5 3 -4.0 -6 7 Table 1 (Dollar amount in MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES millions, based on period average SMember Free reserves r Banks R e s e r v e Excess reserves of daily figures) Total Major banks Outside N Y. N.Y. _____8 Borrowing C t s Other O Country Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1969--January February March April May June July August September October November December - 477 - 580 - 635 - 844 -1.116 -1,078 -1,045 - 997 - 744 - 995 - 975 - 849 359 256 202 187 243 277 266 214 282 195 238 278 836 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211 1,02b 1,190 1,213 1,127 131 62 58 85 123 57 89 81 83 106 120 268 302 255 233 411 346 459 250 253 236 327 387 310 149 215 254 260 397 288 364 256 222 293 250 220 253 304 293 275 493 550 608 621 485 464 456 329 1970--January February March p - 759 916 766 169 210 115 928 1,126 881 148 106 111 287 317 223 232 289 265 261 414 282 3 10 17 24 - 838 349 886 901 402 391 132 204 1,240 740 1,018 1,105 57 64 128 83 286 39 331 306 233 172 136 328 664 465 423 388 1 8 15 -1,116 - 828 -1,129 320 139 218 1,436 967 1,347 95 170 210 531 112 396 257 267 302 553 418 439 22 - 857 158 1,015 -- 275 344 396 29 -1,099 80 1,179 53 322 293 511 296 371 1,328 1.244 121 350 422 296 295 189 490 409 -- Weekly: 1969--Sept. Oct. Nov. -1,032 - 873 5 12 19 - 925 146 1,071 260 421 26 -1,072 138 1,210 8 438 260 504 Dec. 3 10 17 24 31 - 988 903 946 832 576 203 297 98 264 528 1,191 1,200 1,044 1,096 1,104 266 293 164 296 319 307 264 296 356 334 241 264 301 150 153 379 379 296 292 299 1970--Jan. 7 14 21 28 - 567 788 760 918 285 77 203 112 852 865 963 1,030 196 234 75 86 327 281 340 200 87 188 296 358 243 162 252 386 Feb. 4 11 18 -1,047 - 862 - 861 211 207 249 1,258 1,069 1,110 75 130 218 383 351 261 317 267 246 25 - 893 172 1,065 -- 271 329 465 4 11 p 18 p 2 5 p - 638 890 671 865 198 44 146 71 836 934 817 936 32 169 146 97 46 349 209 289 419 191 193 255 339 225 269 295 1 p - 688 262 950 232 264 161 293 Mar. Apr. p - Preliminary. 390 i 1 1 481 321 385 (In Seser a Total Reserves Period r v A g Table 2 AGGREGATERESERVE AND MONETARYVARIABLES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) re Nonborrowed Reserves a es Hequired Reserves i Total ember Ban Deo Deposits - onetary y v V r i a b es S u p p I v 'g ., in T otOl Ut urrency Demand ( Private 8 posits Sjusted Annually 1%8 1969 Semin-annually 1st Half 1969 2nd RalH 1969 +78 - 1.6 +60 -30 +90 - 4.0 t 72 + 2 5 + 0 7 S+0 -39 - 37 -2 4 - 3.5 S46 + 4 +25 +06 +55 +87 +68 + 7 1 +69 +78 + 7.6 +66 +54 +8.) +6.8 + 6.5 + 6 3 +63 + 3.6 + 6.2 +323 + 7.0 + 2.1 1 + 1 5 + 6 5 +465 + +153 7 +6 Quarterly 1st 2nd )rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1968 1968 1968 1968 +111 1 + + 2.1 + 5.3 + 7.3 + 1.4 +1J.6 +12.7 Ist 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1969 1969 1969 1%96 -2 8 -4 7 - 4.8 -0 1 - 4.8 - 2.2 - 9,4 + 0 1 +01 +4 1 + 4 5 1st Quarter 1970 - 0.8 + 0.4 +1.2 -69 - 5.2 + +090 9 +12 3 +13 8 +22.4 + 8.3 + 2.z + 5.9 +11.0 + 9.0 + 8 9 +89 + 8.9 + 2,5 + 2.5 +11.3 + 7 4 + + + + + - 3.2 - 1.2 -ln.I + 49 - 1.2 -10.2 -18.9 -II 3 + 1 7 - 9 2 + 9 7 +17 -92 +97 + 6.2 + 3.1 +31 + + + + + - 4.2 - 8.0 +13.6 +15 0 + 1 2 +71 *74 + 5.8 +37 - 0 9 +70 + 2 +42 -13 Monthly 1968--April May June July Auguet September October Noveber December 1969--J nuary February +92 + 1.3 + 5.3 + 4 5 -4.9 March -Sn April May June July -12 0 + 6.0 --828 2 August - 2.8 September October ovember December + 7 7 -17 9 + 5.5 +12.1 9l7O--January February Harch p p - Prelimlnary + 7.2 -15.6 + 6.2 + 7.3 + 9.4 +22.2 + 8.8 +13 3 +11.5 +13.0 5.8 8.7 8.7 5.7 8.6 +85 + 2.8 +11.2 + 5,6 +12 + 7 IV I + + 1 22 +4 2.8 8 3 8.2 2.7 8 1 +50 +12 3 +98 + 8 9. + 1.6 +2.4 +11.3 + 7.2 + 7.1 + 16 +1.6 +10 2 -16 - 1 6 + 3.1 + 1.6 -4 7 + 6 +18 + 5 4 +80 - 2.6 +10.6 + 7.9 + 9.0 -10.7 +11.4 + 5.2 + 7.8 + 7.8 +10.1 -15.5 +11.8 - I 8 I - 0.8 -08 - 1,6 + 2.3 CJaercial b-nk to time hnk deposits ...... .. Credit Proxy + Eurod-( liars + other nondep ure t TUnd AGGREGATE (Based Reserve Aggregates 5/ Period Monthly 9 8 1 6 -- January February March April May lune July August September 0( tuber November December S969-- lanuarv February March April May June July August i. t umber 11 roler November December 1170-- lapuary Fpbruary Marlh p Total reserves (In Nonborrowcd reserves Required reserves ~---- millions of dol) rs) Table RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABIES Seasonally Adjusted on monthly averages of daily figures) Member Bank hietsits b y .a, e i i. Suinnrfrl eber.r ves 1u ppl'otu .i Prlvat. U.S. Cov't Toral im mb ui.nund or eand dmand me r bank deposts Itie ut1 1 de oits ". nTib pIt (i r b lions 26, 134 26, 352 26, 451 26, 298 26, 353 26, 547 26 715 27, 213 27, 311 27. 504 27,685 27,964 25,818 25,961 25,755 25,606 25,626 25,889 26,186 26,675 26,860 27.066 27,095 27,215 25,7 74 25,9 89 26 0'78 25,9 64 25.9 52 26.1 96 26,4 02 1 26,8 93 26,9 51 27 1 a«, 27,376 27,609 275. 1 277.4 278.5 277.3 277.8 279.5 281.7 286.9 289.0 292.2 295 0 298.2 149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8 119.7 120.1 '?1.6 12n.8 28,139 28,060 27,972 27,775 28,235 28,056 27,530 27,401 27.402 '7, 154 27 902 27 812 27,729 27.614 27.942 27 742 27,334 27,161 27 I'4 27 12" 27 '8 27,707 297.0 296.7 294.2 295 4 295. I 292.6 28h I0 128.4 1. 1 124.9 12C.4 I 10.0 '30.5 '8, / 28 28 285 8 163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158.1 155.1 152.5 152.1 151. 27,428 27,318 27,206 27,024 26,754 26,888 26,705 26 275 26,214 26, 18) '6 210 26 538 26,806 151.5 28,001 27,722 27,694 26,966 26,615 26,752 27,823 27,521 27,5 5 284.8 282.9 286. 1 149.4 148.8 150.5 2' 7) individuals, par nership, Commercial bank time Private deposits lotal demand adjusted I Curreny 2 idA 4/ d posits 3 2 1 a r s of d o M oney Supply 5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2 182.6 18 .3 184.2 185.1 186.8 188.2 189 6 191.0 191.4 191.8 193.6 194.8 195.8 196.3 196.8 148.1 198.1 l'8.J )99.0 199 3 199 0 1.9) 0 199. 1 < I.2 5.4 6.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.9 4.4 3.1 '.6 4.9 't.5 129.8 5.3 5.6 5.8 12' .8 125.2 125.6 12..8 125.7 12 .8 128.2 24. ? . 2 .2 I Private demand deposits include domestic deposits of Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal I 40.6 40.7 41.1 41 3 41.6 41.9 42 1 42 4 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4 41.8 44.1 44.2 4*4.5 45 II 45.3 .5.6 4 .J -5 9 4b.l S46.4 46.7 l201. 201.2 142.0 142.6 143.2 143.8 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.6 148.8 149.1 150.5 151.4 184.1 185.8 187.2 187.7 188.2 188.6 191.1 193.8 196.4 199.4 202.1 204.9 152 J 152 5 152.6 154 0 153 8 154.2 154 , 153 8 15J 7 151.7 203.2 202.4 202.3 202.3 201.7 200.8 197.7 194.5 194.1 193.5 9 '.4 194.1 155.0 153.0 154.5 192.1 192.0 194.2 Credt Proxy + Euro-dollars + other nondep. Isources of F.nT 307.5 305.7 303.8 J04.2 302.2 J05 .5 305.7 304.8 10Q.5 306.0 I rz 14 r,orations and net interbank deposits Reserve, and the vaults .1 . commercial banks, Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due 1, me't a commercial banks and the U S Government, le process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks Government time deposits Excludes interbank and U S Includes increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16, 1969. ss cash items in Table 4 AGGREGATERESERVES AND MONETARYVARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted Ik r l P ... It od T N Tot i 1969--'Sept 0 S 3 10 17 24 [ 27 409 27,325 27 370 27 236 , Notbntl r It, 1. 1. 1 rfaf1 ' 1 (In .Menber r... nt iLctr Supported Tor d t jtitbnd - I ' I 1 rmnii ntlv 111111 ~Jrei trb m. nIltl oin 1i d 1 11 ) 26,194 26,957 26,687 27,059 26,164 27.238 26 199 26,982 8 nk Deposi. by J- klultrd t Privotd a 1'. :W 1, dep.si. i s d l hI I SPrivte lotLl r 4,.1 45 5 45.1 45 J 45.3 1.8 .0 2.7 3.1 3.2 198.3 199.6 198.7 199.9 198.5 45 2 45.4 45 6 45.7 45 7 151.9 151.9 152.0 152.2 284.2 283 7 281.9 284.1 283.4 152.3 151.9 151.4 151.3 151.2 128.1 128.8 127.8 129.7 129.1 286.0 285 9 285.7 285 5 151.3 151.0 151.0 151.1 129.3 129.0 12:.2 129.1 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.3 198.7 199.7 200.1 199.2 287 2 285.7 285 5 284.3 286.2 151.3 151.4 151.7 151.8 151.3 129.8 128.7 128.5 127.6 131.3 6,1 3.5 5.2 5.0 3.7 286.2 285.0 284.8 150.6 149.7 149.2 I I I iy CLurre S I doll 199,5 I'.3l 199.6 198.3 ( I n 130,7 129.7 129.8 128.6 285 8 283.7 287 1 285.0 Consnercsal Crcdlt Ftooy + Commercial'Crnait Proxy + bank time Eur -dollars + deposits Iother nond.p. adjusted soiires of dimdnd Ifund. 4/ 3 d, MonL0y - S( l HR-t, 1 .l 2.2 >.2 posits , ) 54.0 154.2 154.3 153.0 304.3 302.3 305.7 303.4 153.1 154.3 153.0 154.3 152.8 194.3 193.9 193.6 193.3 193.4 302.4 301.9 300.7 J03.2 302.1 45.7 45.8 45.9 45.9 153.0 153.9 154.2 153.2 193.3 193.1 193.2 193.5 304.7 305.2 305.3 305.8 199.3 198.4 198.7 197.8 203,0 45.9 46.0 46.1 46.2 45.8 153.3 152.4 152.7 151.6 157.2 193.8 193.8 194.1 194.3 193.9 307.3 305.9 305.4 304.5 306.1 4.0 4.7 5.3 6.8 202.5 202.1 201.6 199.1 45.7 46.0 46.1 46.3 156.8 156.1 155.5 152.8 193.2 192.3 191.9 191.4 30.4 305.0 305.3 304.4 152.7 152.2 153.1 153.4 191.1 191.4 192.0 192.6 303.3 303.2 303.3 303.8 8 15 22 29 27 27 27 27 27 717 233 260 547 238 26,32 26.291 25,975 26,520 25,98 Nov 5 12 19 26 27 655 27 565 27 951 27,897 26,359 26,339 26.829 26,547 27,360 27,354 27,732 27,637 ec 3 10 17 24 31 27 839 I 2. ,041 28,020 27 790 27,894 26,588 26,641 26,861 26,718 27,099 27,646 27.619 27.946 27,576 27,713 7 14 21 28,11 28,009 1 8,061 27.,148 27,137 27,048 27,791 27,939 27.918 28 27,8J7 26,682 27.685 284.0 148.6 31.6 130.6 130.3 128,7 4 11 18 25 27,959 27 739 27,705 27,597 26,614 26,720 26,545 26,538 27,724 27,549 27,512 27,449 282.8 282.7 282.7 283.2 148.4 148.4 148.8 149.1 128.6 127.9 128.6 128.8 5.8 6.4 5.3 5 4 199.0 198.1 199.5 199.9 46.3 46.3 46.4 46.4 Flar 4 II p 18 p 25 p 27,697 27,491 27,708 27 728 26,711 26,507 26 865 26,764 27,394 27.404 27,537 27,689 283.8 285.3 284.7 286.3 149.6 150.0 1 150.3 151,0 129.3 129.0 128.6 129.7 4 6.4 5.8 5.7 200.6 200.0 199.9 200.3 46 5 46.6 46.7 46.8 154.2 153.4 153.2 153.6 193.0 193.3 194.0 194.8 304.1 105.2 304.8 306.1 pr I p 27 871 26,921 27,598 289.4 151.6 132.1 5.7 204.9 46.9 158.0 195.6 308.8 1970--1 an eb 1 27,417 27,044 27,059 27.263 27,041 1 I i , 1 1 ' 1 I - I Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporation, and not Interbank deposits Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks Includes currency ourst banks and the U S Government, leIs , lomer,l those due to domteart ti(ts l hnks, other than ,nnorl t -/ des (I) demand dte, Inru process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve banks. Government time deposits Excludes Interbank and US 5/ Includes Increases in required reserves due to changes in Regulations M and D of approximately $400 million since October 16, 1969. p - Preliminary 1/ 2/ 4/ I 194.0 193.9 194.2 194.0 I the fII I cash Item in 

Federal Reserve (1970, April 6). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19700407

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19700407,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1970},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19700407},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}