Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) October 3, 1969. MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS Recent developments (1) Since the last meeting of the Committee, long-term credit markets, other than the market for State and local Government securities, have experienced further upward yield pressure. Yield advances--which ranged from 30 to 60 basis points on Government notes and bonds and amounted to about 30 basis points for high-grade new corporate issues-reflected a large volume of recent and forthcoming new corporate issues, heavy current and prospective borrowing in the Federal agency market, and a degree of market indigestion in the aftermath of the recent Treasury refunding. In recent days the corporate bond and Treasury coupon markets have tended to stabilize, with the latter market influenced by about $130 million of purchases by the System and $45 million by the Treasury. Yields on municipal bonds have declined on balance since the last meeting, reflecting cut-backs in offerings necessitated by interest rate ceilingsas well as expectations of market participants that the Senate will weaken the House tax-reform bill as it affects interest earnings on tax-exempt securities. Most recently, this market has weakened somewhat as sizable new offerings have been added to the forward calendar. (2) Yields in the Treasury bill market fluctuated in a relatively narrow range over the past month. Large purchases of Treasury bills by foreign accounts were an important factor keeping yields from rising in a period of overall credit market pressure. The System also purchased some (Mothl r FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS IN es.,rTOO d«, >.hea om l,1« kl Federal Funds fi f...,,,dFl~l Bond Yields Money Market Indicators rPeriod ee Borrowings (Ind emR ions of (In millions of dollars for weeks ending in) PERSPECTIVE 3-month Treasury U.S. Government . Re Corporate w Issues (Aaa) 2/ r~ ) Flow of Reserves Municipal (Aaa) Nonborrowed Reserves Total Reserves Bank Credit and Money. S.A. Bank Credit (In millions of dollars) Money Supply (In bllions Time Deposits 3/ of dollars) 1968--September October November December - 146 192 255 327 492 458 541 743 5.78 5.92 5.81 6.02 5.19 5.35 5.45 5.96 5.28 5.44 5.56 5.88 6.27 6.47 6.61 6.79 4.23 4.21 4.33 4.50 +185 +206 + 29 +120 + 98 +193 +181 +279 + + + + 2.1 3.2 2.8 3.2 + + + + 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.2 + + + + 1969--January February March April May June July August September p 491 580 635 844 -1,116 -1,078 -1,045 997 766 715 836 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211 1,026 6.30 6.64 6.79 7.41 8.67 8.90 8.61 9.19 9.15 6.14 6.12 6.02 6.11 6.04 6.44 7.00 6.98 7.09 5.99 6.11 6.22 6.03 6.11 6.28 6.27 6.22 6.55 6.92 6.91* 7.37 7.17 7.22 7.58 7.63 7.65 7.98 4.58 4.74 4.97 5.00 5.19 5.58 5.60 5.74 5.83 +103 -112 -182 -270 +134 -183 -430 - 64 +153 +175 - 79 - 88 -197 +460 -179 -526 -132 - 16 + + 1.2** 0.3 2.5 1.2 0.3 2.5 4.6 2.7 0.6 + + + + + + + - 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 -- - 1.7 - 0.8 - 0.1 -- 0.6 - 0.9 - 3.1 - 3.2 - 0.3 6 13 20 27 839 996 -1,162 992 1,090 1,329 1,221 1,204 9.57 9.18 8.79 8.82 6.99 7.04 6.86 7.04 6.21 6.19 6.20 6.24 7.57* 7.53 7.61 7.82 5.70 5.73 5.73 5.80 +484 -102 -394 +344 +340 + 47 -387 +282 + 0.9 0.3 1.5 0.7 --+ 0.4 - 0.6 - 3 10 p 17 p 2: p - 860 405 897 903 1,240 740 1,017 1,106 9.57 8.57 9.07 9.61 7.01 7.09 7.11 7.13 6.35 6.45 6.49 6.60 7.90 8.02 8.04 8.13 5.80 5.85 5.85 5.82 - 87 +515 -334 -155 - 46 - 62 + 33 -123 + + - 0.7 2.1 3.5 2.0 + + - + 0.1 - 0.1 + 0.3 +0.1 1 p -1 19g 1 &R 11 7.07 6.76 8.22 5.83 + 4a.Q - nR 1969--Aug. Sept. Oct. 90Q 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.0 - 1.0 sar 1968 -econd Half 1968 First Half 1969 - 210 218 779 548 529 1,034 5.58 5.77 7.45 5.36 5.42 6.17 5.45 5.44 6.12 6.47 6.50 7.20 4.20 4.22 4.99 + 6.4 +11.0 - 3.7 Annual rates of increase + 7.9 + 9.0 + +10.9 +13.4 + + 0.7 - 3.5 + Recent variation in growth 7/3/68 - 12/18/68 12/18/68 - 10/1/69 - 203 833 516 1,090 5.90 7.87 5.34 6.43 5.40 6.19 6.47 7.62 4.21 5.21 +11.0 - 4.4 +12.9 - 1.4 Averages I 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ +14.8 - 5.8 4/ 7.2 7.0 4.3 + 5.9 + 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 -- +11.5 +17.3 - 4.0 +18.6 - 6.7 I II p - Preliminary. Average of total number of days in period. Includes issues carrying 5-year and 10-year call protection, * - issues carry a 10-year call protection. Time deposits adjusted at all commercial banks. week shown. Base is change for month preceding specified period or in case of weekly periods, the first ** - Reflects $400 million reduction in member bank deposits resulting from withdrawal of a large country bank from System membership. Percentage annual rates are adjusted to eliminate this break in series. October 3, 1969. S.A. - Seasonally adjusted. -2- bills for its own account in the market. In early October, short-term bill yields were little changed from their levels around the time of the last Committee meeting, but most recently the 3-month bill declined to about 7 per cent. Most other short-term market interest rates rose over the period. (3) The effective rate on Federal funds has averaged about 9-1/8 per cent since the last Committee meeting--somewhat higher than in the preceding inter-meeting period--with the weekly average rate fluctuating between 8-1/2 and 9-5/8 per cent. In the statement week ending September 10, the Federal funds rate was at the low end of its range, as the Treasury's pre-tax date borrowing from the Federal Reserve proved to be larger than expected and net borrowed reserves temporarily dropped to $400 million. Thereafter, net borrowed reserves moved back into a $900 million -$1.2 billion range, and the Federal funds rate also moved up, with tax period pressures and dealer financing demands associated with the large Treasury refunding adding to money market pressures. Dealer loan rates at New York City banks were quoted most frequently between 9-1/2 and 10-1/4 per cent. Average member bank borrowing in the three statement weeks ending October 1 ranged from $1.0 to $1.4 billion. (4) There was a small net expansion in total member bank deposits in September that reflected a further increase in U.S. Government balances and a reduced rate of outflow of time deposits. The bank credit proxy, unadjusted for Euro-dollar borrowings, increased at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent, in line with the 2 - 5 per cent range projected in the last Blue Book. Private demand deposits showed little net change on -3average during the month rather than declining somewhat as had been projected. Time deposits contracted at a 2 per cent annual rate, in line with projections as flows of consumer-type deposits improved somewhat and CD attrition diminished. (5) Funds obtained by banks from nondeposit sources declined on average during September. Euro-dollar borrowings from foreign branches added nearly one-half a percentage point to the adjusted bank credit proxy. Loan RP's continued their August decline, and all nondeposit sources together (other than borrowings from foreign branches) declined by a magnitude equivalent to about 1 percentage point in the credit proxy. In sum, the proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources rose at an annual rate of about 3 per cent. (6) The following table summarizes annual rates of change in major deposit and reserve aggregates for the latter half of 1968 and thus far in 1969. July '68Dec. '68 Jan. '69June '69 July '68Sept. '69 0.7 -9.6 Total reserves 10.9 Nonborrowed reserves 11. 0 -3.7 -5.1 (Bank credit proxy) 13.4 -3.5 -9.2 Proxy plus Euro-dollars 13.5 -0.2 -6.0 Proxy plus Euro-dollars and other nondeposit sources n.a. n. a. -4.2 Total loans and investments (as of last Wednesday of month) 15.0 Bank credit, as indicated by: Total member bank deposits Money supply Time and savings deposits Savings accounts 1/ July and August only. 7.2 17.3 6.4 3.0 0.1 4.3 0.2 -4.0 4.9 -13.1 1. 2-1/ Prospective developments (7) Maintenance of prevailing money market conditions night be considered to include a weekly average Federal funds rate fluctuating between 8-1/2 and 9-1/2 per cent, member bank borrowings in a $1 - $1-1/2 billion range, and net borrowed reserves in a $900 million to $1.2 billion range. Given these conditions, however, it seems likely that the 3-month bill rate would fluctuate in a somewhat higher range than recently--perhaps between 6.90 and 7.40 per cent. While announcement of the Treasury tax bill financing for payment on October 14 has had little immediate impact on bill rates, further upward rate pressures may develop from a yet to be announced further Treasury bill financing later this month, from additional agency financings, and from potential reversal of large recent German bill purchases in the market. Dealers have worked their bill positions down to relatively low levels in anticipation of these developments, however, and the System will be a net supplier of reserves during the next three weeks, partly to accommodate the $400 million increase in required reserves resulting from imposition of marginal reserve requirements on Euro-dollars. To the extent German bill offerings do develop, therefore, the Desk may be in a position to acquire a sizable part of this (8) supply directly. If the 3-month bill rate should rise to or above the upper end of the projected range, the market might become apprehensive that monetary policy had firmed further, with consequent problems for distributing the large volume of prospective Agency issues and for -5clearing out the remaining overhang from the recent Treasury refunding. Such upward interest rate pressures would likely spread throughout the capital market, although expectations of lower interest rates could emerge as an offsetting factor if the weight of forthcoming business news were clearly on the bearish side. Should the bill rate climb enough to bring unfavorable market repercussions, it may be necessary to move toward the lower end of the recent range of fluctuation of the Federal funds rate and marginal reserve measures in order to maintain unchanged overall conditions in money and short-term credit markets. (9) With the 3-month bill likely to remain at relatively high levels over the next few weeks,time and savings deposit are most likely to remain adverse. flows at banks On average, however, the extent of the further decline from September to October may be relatively small-per cent perhaps in a 0 to -3/range. Outflows of consumer-type time deposits should resume following the quarterly interest-crediting period, and attrition in CD's will continue. The CD decline may be noticeably less than in recent months, however, both because of the smaller volume of monthly maturities and because there is likely to be some further shifting of official foreign deposits from London branches of U.S. banks to head offices, of the sort that began to develop in late September. (10) in October The money supply is likely to show a decline on average perhaps in a 2 - 5 per cent annual rate range. reflect mainly This would the abrupt drop in demand deposits in the last half of September which is expected to be only partially recovered during October. -6(11) Total member bank deposits are likely to resume their decline in October, perhaps dropping in a 5 - 8 per cent annual rate range. This would imply further weakness, of course, in reserve aggregates. With deposits contracting further, banks may be somewhat more active than in recent weeks in the Euro-dollar market--although the total of Euro-dollar borrowings may not rise appreciably because of offsetting shifts in foreign official accounts. more active in the commercial paper market. Banks may also become Possible constrained availa- bility of funds to the commercial paper market--reflecting in part strains on corporate liquidity--could tend to limit such borrowing, however, and outstanding loan RP's will continue to run-off. Altogether, Euro-dollar borrowings and other nondeposit sources of funds are not likely to add appreciably to funds available to banks (probably by an amount equivalent to no more than 1 percentage point in the proxy). Policy alternative (12) If the Committee should decide to move toward somewhat less firm money market conditions, it might consider a Federal funds rate averaging around 8-1/4 to 8-1/2 per cent, member bank borrowings around $1 billion, and net borrowed reserves of around $800 million. Over the short-run, such a move would seem unlikely to lead to sharp reductions in interest rates or to much change in monetary aggregates (as compared with a situation of no change in money market conditions). Interest rate declines would, of course, tend to be larger if market -7expectations were at the same time being affected by bearish news. business But banks would not be in any position to bid effectively for domestic CD's and thus would find it difficult to fuel downward pressures on longer-term interest rates by rebuilding their own portfolios and financing speculators. However, it is likely that banks would find the market for commercial paper a somewhat more attractive source of funds at the margin as short-term interest rate pressures abated. Also other types of investors, such as pension and mutual funds--where fund flows have been less restricted, might step-up their commitment of funds to long-term markets. (13) The money market conditions outlined in the preceding paragraph might be accompanied by a 3-month bill rate moving down over the next three weeks into a 6.70 - 7.10 per cent range. The total of member bank deposits and nondeposit sources in these circumstances might decline in a 3 - 6 per cent range in October. This decline would be only a little smaller than that projected under a policy of no change, but the effects of an easing in policy on bank credit developments in November could be expected to be significantly larger. Money supply might turn out to be somewhat less weak than otherwise, particularly as time goes on, as less restrictive bank credit availability reduced the pressure on cash balances of businesses and consumers. Chart 1 MEMBER BANK RESERVES MONTHLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1.5 MEMBER .5 > I BORROWINGS/ % g mi 1.0 0 BANK I II 1968 -EXCESS I RESERVES I 1969 Chart 2 MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS AND LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS (CREDIT PROXYJ SEAS ADJ WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES 302 298 294 290 286 282 278 274 270 14 LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES (WEEKLY REPORTING BANKS) 12 -NOT SEAS. ADJ., 10 8' 6 1968 1969 Chart 3 MONEY SUPPLY AND BAh( DEPOSITS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES TIME DEPOSITS ADJUSTED (All Commercial Banks) , NEGOTIABLE CD'S -NOT SEAS M ADJ, WEDN J 1968 S D M J 1969 S D Chart 4 DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES I I I I I i II I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MONEY SUPPLY COMPONENTS: 48 I CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS 44 40 DEMAND DEPOSITS 36 150 146 142 138 134 12 U.S. GOVT. DEMAND DEPOSITS (Member Banks) 8 0 M J 1968 I I I I S D I I I M J 1969 I I $ D MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES (Dollar amounts in Billions, based on period averages of daily figures) Member Free reserves Period Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): 1968--April May June July August September October November December - July Aug. Sept. Oct. p - Country - 38 354 341 331 337 346 267 286 330 689 728 727 523 577 492 458 541 600 56 65 72 13 195 125 81 65 134 262 155 168 140 65 15S 88 171 223 148 186 141 102 101 73 117 93 66 - 477 580 359 256 836 836 131 62 302 255 149 215 635 844 -1.116 -1,078 -1,045 -1,997 776 202 187 243 277 266 21 260 837 1,031 1,359 1,355 1,311 1,211 1,026 58 85 123 57 89 S1 83 233 411 346 459 250 253 236 254 260 397 288 364 256 222 293 275 493 550 608 621 485 -1,120 910 -1.242 -1,190 483 261 116 113 1,603 1,171 1,358 1.303 146 121 164 59 462 260 378 284 488 385 361 353 507 405 455 607 -1,152 812 -1,216 -1,132 360 4L4 o9 191 1.521 1.260 1,315 1,323 43 86 -97 552 371 465 460 289 302 281 273 637 501 569 492 2 -1.138 -96 1.63- 125 416 396 697 9 - 129 1,020 -- 165 334 521 I- March April May June July August p September p June Total Banks Borrowings R e s e r v e C i t v Major banks Ot 8 N.Y. Outside N.Y., 341 374 386 192 240 146 192 255 270 1969--January February 1969--May E\cess reser\es 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 I 891 I 1 223 322 346 268 215 136 172 212 177 1 1 253 304 16 -1.103 176 1,279 88 302 390 499 23 - 972 382 1,354 86 214 393 661 30 -1.123 146 1,269 1-6 152 308 663 6 13 20 27 839 996 -1.16: o02 3 10 p 17 o 2- p - 1 p FrLD!IAR-. ?c0 S07 003 -1.108 251 333 212 1.090 1.329 1,221 1.20- 3S0 33 10 120 2n? 1,- 0 2-0 1.-:S 7-0 1.011.116 18 118 136 12S S- 638 589 624 633 183 365 267 10i6 251 256 194 286 30 3311 233 172 132 66- 2~- 5-0 30b 27 122 -65 -24 38S Table 2 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted (In per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) Reserve Period Annually 1967 1968 Total Reserves Aggregates Nonborrowed Reserves I Required Reserves Monetary Mo n e y Total Member Bank Deposits Total S u Currency Variables y pl Private Demand Deposits Commercial bank time deposits adjusted Credit Proxy (Incl. Eurodollar borrowings) +10.3 + 7.9 +11.6 + 6.4 +10.5 + 7.9 +11.8 + 9.0 + 6.6 + 7.2 + 5.5 + 7.4 + 7.0 + 7.1 +15.9 +11.5 +11.7 + 9.8 1968 1968 1968 1968 + 7.9 + 1.5 +11.5 + 9.6 + 1.1 + 2.1 +15.0 + 5.3 + 7.5 + 1.8 +11.5 + 9.8 + 7.3 + 1.4 +13.6 +12.7 + + + + + + + + + + + + 5.4 8.7 6.8 7.0 + 7.6 + 3.0 +16.5 +17.3 + 7.6 + 3.7 +14.7 +12.3 1st Quarter 1969 2nd Quarter 1969 + 0.1 + 1.2 + 2.8 + 4.7 + 1.7 + 0.2 - 4.8 - 2.2 + 5.4 + 4.5 +12.1 + 6.3 + 3.4 + 3.9 - 5.1 - 3.0 - 1.4 + 1.4 + 0.2 + 4.5 - -13.1 - 6.0 + - 4.7 Quarterly 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 3rd Quarter 1969 - 9.6 - 6.9 - 5.1 - 8.6 - 9.2 5.5 8.7 6.8 5.9 6.9 7.8 7.6 0.9 1.0 Monthly: 1968--April May June July August September October November December - 6.9 - 5.2 + 2.5 + 8.8 + 7.6 +22.4 + 4.3 + 8.5 + 7.9 +12.1 + 0.9 +12.3 +13.8 +22.4 + 8.3 + 9.2 + 1.3 + 5.3 - 0.6 +11.3 + 9.4 +22.3 + 2.6 +10.4 + 8.4 +10.2 - 3.2 5.9 + 5.8 + 5.0 + + 2.2 + 7.3 + 9.4 +22.2 + 8.8 +13.3 +11.5 +13.0 +11.0 + 9.0 + 8.9 + 8.9 + 2.5 + 2.5 +11.3 + 7.4 + 8.7 + 8.7 + 5.7 + 8.6 + 8.5 + 2.8 +11.2 + 5.6 +12.5 + 8.3 + 9.8 + 8.9 + 1.6 + 2.4 +11.3 + 7.2 + 3.2 + 2.6 +15.9 +17.0 +16.1 +18.3 +16.2 +16.6 + 6.0 + 9.7 +10.5 +22.5 +10.6 +12.1 +11.6 +11.5 3.2 + 7.5 + 4.5 +12.7 - 3.2 + 9.9 +19.6 + 7.1 -10.0 - 0.8 February March April May June - 3.4 - 3.8 - 8.5 +19.9 - 7.6 - 4.9 - 8.0 -12.0 + 6.0 - 8.2 - 3.0 - 4.4 - 5.0 +14.3 - 8.6 - 1.2 -10.1 + 4.9 - 1.2 -10.2 + 3.1 + 3.1 + 7.9 + 1.2 + 4.2 + + + + + 8.3 8.2 2.7 8.1 8.1 + 1.6 + 1.6 +10.2 - 1.6 + 3.1 - + 2.0 - 6.7 + 5.5 July -22.5 -19.3 -17.6 -18.9 + 2.4 + 5.4 + 1.6 -18.5 -11.4 August p September p - - 2.9 + 7.0 - 7.6 - 0.7 -11.1 + 2.5 - + 8.0 - -19.4 - 1.9 - 9.5 + 2.8 1969--January p - Preliminary. 5.8 0.7 1.8 -- -- 4.7 . 4.7 0.6 -- - 3.6 5.4 - 1.2 Table 3 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted (Based on monthly averages of daily figures) Reserve Aggregates Sunn I Period Total reserves (In Monthly1968--January February March April May June July August September October November December 1969--January February March April May June July August September p Nonborrowed reserves Total member bank dedeposits npnnsits Member Bank Deposits ted lRe b/ uiread ReOrves y N 1Private U.S. Gov't. Time deposits demand demand denosits deposits lars) millions of do b i 1 lions In Commercial Money Supply Total of I I Currency 2/ dollar bank time Private demand deoosits 3 L - deposits adjusted 4/ Credit Proxy (Incl. Euro dollar borrowines 26,134 26,352 26,451 26,298 26,353 26,547 26.715 27,213 27,311 27,504 27,685 27,964 25,818 25,961 25,755 25,606 25,626 25,889 26,186 26,675 26,860 27,066 27,095 27,215 25,774 25,989 26,078 25,964 25,952 26,196 26,402 26,893 26,951 27,185 27,376 27,609 275.1 277.4 278.5 277.3 277.8 279.5 281.7 286.9 289.0 292.2 295.0 298.2 149.9 150.2 151.2 151.3 151.5 151.8 153.8 156.5 158.9 161.5 163.5 165.8 119.7 120.1 120.6 120.8 122.7 123.8 125.2 125.6 124.8 125.7 126.8 128.2 5.4 7.1 6.7 5.2 3.7 3.9 2.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.2 182 . 6 183.: S 184.2 185. L 186.8 8 188.2 189.6 S 191.( 191.4 S 191. 193.6 194. 8 40.6 40.7 41.1 41.3 41.6 41.9 42.1 42.4 42.7 42.8 43.2 43.4 142.0 142.6 143.2 143.8 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.6 148.8 149.1 150.5 151.4 184.1 185.8 187.8 187.7 188.2 188.6 191.1 193.8 196.4 199.4 202.1 204.9 279.4 281.9 283.2 282.1 283.5 285.8 288.3 293.7 296.3 299.3 302.2 305.1 28,139 28,060 27,972 27,775 28,235 28,056 27,530 27,398 27,318 27,206 27,024 26,754 26,888 26,705 26.275 26,211 26,364 27,902 27,832 27,729 27,614 27,942 27,742 27,334 27,161 27,146 297.0 296.7 294.2 295.4 295.1 292.6 288.0 285.3 285.9 163.2 161.0 160.5 160.1 159.3 158.1 155.1 152.5 152.2 128.4 129.1 128.9 129.4 130.0 130.5 130.5 130.0 129.3 5.4 6.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.9 4.3 195.8 196.3 196.8 198.1 198.3 199.0 199.4 199.1 109.1 43.5 43.8 44.1 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.0 45.3 45.3 152.3 152.5 152.7 154.0 153.8 154.2 154.4 153.8 153.8 203.2 202.4 202.3 202.3 201.7 200.8 197.7 194.5 194.2 304.8 305.3 303.6 305.0 305.0 304.7 301.8 299.4 300.1 27,382 L Required reserves C __ __ [ __ __ L _ L_ _ _ I __ _ _J __ _ 1 _ Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. process of collection and Federal Reserve float; Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. less cash items in Table 4 AGGREGATE Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves 1 8 15 22 29 (In 28,359 28,041 28,290 28.223 28,009 lions of dol lars) 27,439 27,883 27,333 27,799 27,552 28,065 27,416 28,010 26,998 27,781 5 12 19 26 27,999 27,929 27,986 28,246 27,170 27,180 26,917 27,490 5 12 19 26 28,285 28,034 27,781 27,942 2 9 16 23 30 May Time depositsts deposits b i 129.3 129.9 128.5 127.9 126.8 27,740 27,748 27,748 28,017 295.8 297.4 297.4 296.3 161.4 161.1 160.8 160.6 27,401 27,109 27,000 26,931 28,003 27,734 27,686 27,684 295.5 295.7 294.1 293.2 27,879 27,611 27,590 27,848 28,023 26,689 26,634 26,838 26,733 26,830 27,570 27,431 27,515 27,698 27,823 7 14 21 28 28,501 28,162 28,020 28,219 27,048 26,980 26,629 26,920 June 4 11 18 25 28,320 28,308 27,833 27,761 July 2 9 16 23 30 Aug. Mar. Apr. Sept. Oct. In Money Supplybank U.S. Gov't. demand // deposits2/ de osits 165.5 164.4 163.9 162.8 162.1 Feb. 4/ Required reserves Private demand 298.8 298.9 296.7 296.3 295.7 Weekly: 1969--Jan. 1/ 2/ 3/ Supported by Reuired Reserves Total member bank posits de osits Commercial S Member Bank Deposits Reserve Aggregates Period RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Seasonally Adjusted 1 ions Total of d time Credit Proxy (Incl. Eurc dollar borrowings Private demand deposits 3 deposits adjusted 4 4/ 43.6 43.6 151.9 153.3 152.5 152.4 150.6 205.2 203.9 203.5 202.9 202.9 305.6 305.6 299.8 304.6 304.3 202.2 202.2 202.6 202.6 304.3 306.0 305.9 305.1 202.4 202.3 202.3 202.3 304.4 305.0 303.6 302.8 Currency o 1 1 ars 43.4 43.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 5.6 6.9 195.3 196.8 196.1 196.0 194.2 128.0 128.2 129.8 129.9 6.5 8.0 6.8 5.7 195.3 195.6 197.1 196.8 43.7 150.6 43.8 151.8 43.8 43.8 153.0 160.4 160.6 160.5 160.7 129.5 128.6 128.5 129.0 5.6 6.5 5.1 3.6 196.4 196.4 196.8 196.9 43.9 152.5 44.0 44.1 44.2 152.5 293.6 294.9 295.6 295.9 294.7 160.7 160.6 160.2 160.1 159.8 130.0 129.5 130.0 129.1 197.6 199.0 198.7 197.4 196.9 44.2 44.2 44.2 44.2 44.2 153.4 154.7 154.5 153.2 152.7 202.6 202.6 202.4 128.3 3.0 4.9 5.3 6.8 6.6 202.0 303.0 304.2 305.1 305.7 304.7 27,993 27,888 27,844 28,091 294.7 296.5 295.2 294.9 159.6 159.4 159.3 159.1 128.7 129.8 131.0 130.6 6.4 7.3 5.0 5.3 197.2 197.8 199.5 199.1 44.3 44.4 44.4 44.6 152.9 153.4 155.1 154.6 202.0 201.8 201.7 201.7 304.5 306.2 305.0 305.1 26,829 27,028 26,543 26,588 27,826 27,800 27,698 27,701 293.7 293.9 293.1 291.3 158.8 158.7 158.2 157.6 130.6 130.6 130.6 130.3 4.3 4.6 4.3 3.4 198.8 198.8 198.2 199.1 44.7 44.7 44.8 44.8 154.0 154.0 153.5 154.2 201.6 201.5 200.9 200.1 303.6 304.9 305.6 304.5 28,217 27,506 27,568 27,703 27,151 26,543 26,461 26,370 26,274 25,927 27,711 27,462 27,492 27,307 26,980 290.6 289.4 286.7 288.0 287.1 157.0 156.1 155.3 154.6 154.1 130.7 130.2 130.5 130.5 130.0 2.9 3.0 .9 3.0 3.0 199.2 199.4 199.3 199.1 199.1 44.9 44.9 45.0 45.0 45.0 154.4 154.5 154.3 154.2 154.1 199.3 198.8 197.9 197.2 196.7 303.8 302.5 300.7 302.2 301.3 6 13 20 27 27,491 27,538 27,151 27,433 26,411 26,309 25,915 26,259 27,258 27,216 27,164 27,135 286.2 285.9 284.4 285.1 153.4 152.9 152.4 152.1 129.9 129.9 130.3 129.9 2.9 3.1 1.7 3.1 199.1 199.1 199.5 198.9 45.1 45.2 45.2 45.3 153.9 154.0 154.3 153.7 195.6 194.9 194.4 193.9 300.2 3 10 17 24 27,387 27,325 27,358 27,235 26,172 26,687 26,353 26,198 26,957 27,059 27,238 26,982 285.8 283.7 287.2 285.2 151.9 151.9 152.1 152.3 130.7 129.7 129.8 128.7 3.2 2.2 5.3 4.1 199.5 199.3 199.5 198.5 45.5 45.1 45.2 45.3 154.0 154.2 154.3 153.2 194.0 194.3 300.0 298.1 301.6 299.4 1 27,644 26,288 27,424 284.4 152.4 128.2 3.9 197.5 45.3 152.3 194.3 298.3 43.6 153.2 152.8 152.7 Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and net interbank deposits. Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. Excludes interbank and U.S. Government time deposits. 202.3 193.9 194.2 299.8 298.6 299.4 less cash items in Table 5 SOURCE OF FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT Retrospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions of dollars, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Period Total Federal Reserve credit (Excl. float) U.S. Government securities Total holdings Bills I/ Other Year: 1967 (12/28/66 - 12/27/67) 1968 (12/27/67 - 12/26/68) +4,718 +3,757 Weekly: 1969--Apr. 2 9 16 23 30 + 357 - 113 380 + + - + + 773 347 + + ( -) (7) (- 533) 819 (+ 460) 280 (+ 80) 7 14 21 28 + 794 - 293 + + 149 259 + + + + 41 ( -- ) 66 (- 156) 190 (+ 156) 243 ( -) 4 11 18 25 + 439 - 35 18 168 + + + 351 ( -- ) 284 (71) 118 (- 309) 174 (+ 191) 2 9 16 23 30 + 679 - 247 + 261 + + + - 337 379 - + + 562 153 + + 198 86 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1/ 6 13 20 27 3 10 I 17 I 24 I I +5,009 +3,298 +4,433 ( +2,143 ( - ) ) +1,153 +1,176 51 57 559 - Federal Agency Securities 19 3 577 - 21 + 73 + 67 69 52 13 2 34 58 24 + + + + + + + + + + + 27 96 - + + + + Bankers' acceptances + + - 37 -10 - 11 - 2 + + 18 - 5 - 13 241 (+ - 71 (+ 355 (+ + 61 (+ 241) 98) 10) 37) + + + + + + + 3 51) 632) 531) 101) + + + + + + 5 12 4 + + - 401 + 730 + 623 + 87 ( -- ) + -14 189) 121) 121) 146) 95) + Member banks borrowings 11 3 - 8 180 (+ 332 (122 (+ 404 (264 (- + 155 (+ -1,276 (890 (+ +1,254 (+ + 273 -1,434 --- Repurchase agreements + - 2 21 -18 + - 4 Figures in parenthesis reflect reserve effect of match sale-purchase agreement. Includes effect of changes in special certificates of $+96 million of the week of April 9, $+627 million of the week of April 16, $-723 million of the week of April 23 , $+507 million of the week of September 10, $+154 million of the week of September 17, and $-661 million of the week of September 24. p - Preliminary. * - 203 514 Table 6 MAJOR SOURCES AND USES OF RESERVES Retrospective and Prospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) F a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g s u p p y of r e s e rves Period Federal credit Reserve credit (exc. float) / Year: 1967 (12/28/66-12/27/67) 1968 (12/27/67-12/25/68) -ekly: 1969--April 96 1 +4,718 +3,757 Gold Gold Currency outside banks (Sign I n 725 -2,067 Treasury operation Float icates ef f Foreign deposits and gold loans ct on r Other nonmember deposits and F.R. accounts serves) = Change =Bank use of reserves in total reserves Required reserves Excess reserves reservs -2,305 -3,221 + 85 928 - 389 +1,309 - 7 67 + + 316 869 +1,522 +1,508 +1,517 +1,563 + - 5 55 2 9 16 23 30 + + + 357 113 380 773 347 ------ + 54 93 -186 166 + 602 + + + - 50 119 380 427 194 + + + - 272 231 44 660 741 + + + + 25 15 29 5 2 + + + 97 270 130 119 61 + + + + 121 144 17 964 77 + + + + 80 60 98 936 164 + + - 41 84 81 28 87 May 7 14 21 28 + + + 794 293 149 259 ----- + 99 270 450 155 + + + 16 42 141 128 + - 18 120 295 350 + + 40 32 4 8 + - 100 288 167 242 + - 553 404 34 43 + + - 155 182 111 40 + - 398 222 145 3 June 4 11 18 25 + - 439 35 18 168 ----- + 348 51 419 115 - 108 217 354 179 + + + + 220 119 123 172 + + 18 3 - 7 + - 306 20 261 1 - 86 199 408 70 - 342 278 59 162 + + + 256 79 349 92 July 2 9 16 23 30 + + - 679 247 261 337 379 ------ + + 3 344 136 174 719 + + - 221 23 65 87 6 + + - 262 382 122 465 920 + + 19 48 48 9 14 + + + 84 89 113 31 4 + + - 534 324 99 111 570 + + + - 229 43 52 317 334 + + + - 305 367 47 206 236 Aug. 6 13 20 27 + + + 562 153 198 86 ----- + 201 180 417 289 + + - 318 147 259 153 + + + - 3 19 395 458 + + - 30 10 8 4 + + - 207 63 153 9 + + - 448 82 199 250 + + - 343 164 473 403 + + + 105 82 274 153 Sept. 3 10 p 17 p 24 p + 273 -1,434 - 401 + 730 ----- + + 145 35 72 218 + 39 + 860 18 -1,125 + + + 110 368 175 195 + - 9 27 2 11 + + + 31 106 246 104 + + 18 37 73 108 + + + 149 8 142 25 + + 168 45 215 83 Oct. 1 p + 37 9--Oct. Nov. PROJECTED 2, 8 15 22 3/ 29 5 -- + 623 - + 270 + 64 - 699 + 11 + 138 + 408 + 371 + + + + 110 360 55 45 -- + 235 310 285 405 + - 170 30 50 50 400 475 - 5 10 -- + + - + + 130 95 125 - + + - 40 55 295 25 + + - 40 55 295 25 + 405 - -130 - - 200 75 + 75 1/ For retrospective details, see Table 5. 2/ See reverse side for explanation. 3/ Includes estimated change for reserves held against Euro-dollars p - Preliminary. - of $400 million, effective October 16, -+ 1969. -- Explanation of Projections in Table 6 1. Changes in Federal Reserve credit indicate reserves needed to offset projected changes in required reserves and factors affecting the supply of reserves. 2. Projected changes in currency outside banks reflect seasonal movements plus an allowance for growth of about $50 million per week. 3. Projected effects of Treasury operations, included in "technical factors," reflect scheduled and assumed calls in current two weeks and maintenance of Treasury balances with Federal Reserve at $1.9 billion, thereafter. 4. Projected changes in required reserves assume the existing net reserve position of banks and the structure of interest rates in the market, as well as the current economic outlook. On the basis of these assumptions, projections reflect expected movements in bank credit and money in the period ahead, including the effects of such elements as the public's loan demand, repayments of previous loans, banks' investment preferences and willingness to supply loans, banks' desires and abilities to obtain time and savings deposits, and the Government's financing needs. The projections thus encompass normal seasonal developments, temporary bursts of loans demand and expected associated repayments not currently reflected by the seasonals, and whatever cyclical and growth demands for money and credit are expected in the projection period. Assumed Treasury financing operations include: $2.0 billion, October 14. 

Federal Reserve (1969, October 6). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19691007

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19691007,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1969},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19691007},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}